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報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819

更新 2026-08-20

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_003.png 40KB 真資料圖 1-year-forward PER bands,2018/8-2026/8 股價(深藍)疊 10x/17x/24x/30x 帶,2026 年股價在 24x-30x 帶間震盪、高點逾 800 元
報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_004.png 30KB 真資料圖 營收結構堆疊柱狀圖(Regular server/GPU AI server/ASIC AI server/Others):2024 年 37%/0%/—/63%;2025 年 52%/2%/—/45%;2026E 56%/10%/6%/27%;2027E 53%/14%/17%/16%;2028E 59%/11%/17%/12%

原始內容

Taiwan

Nan Juen International (6584 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,022.00 (from TWD1,022.00)

Share price (19 Aug): TWD600.00 | Up/downside: +70.3%

2Q26 review: structural growth intact

  • 2Q26 earnings beat on non-op gains, but core margins softened
  • Regular server weakness offset by AI server rail kit
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating with 12-month TP of TWD1,022

What's new: Nan Juen released its 2Q26 results on 12 August. We provide our views in this report.

What's the impact: 2Q26 results beat on non-op gain. Nan Juen's 2Q26 earnings came in at TWD219m (EPS: TWD3.1), which was 5% higher than our estimate but 6% lower than consensus. Revenue was slightly below expectations, while gross margin edged up 0.2pp QoQ to 41.8%, which was modestly below both our and the street's estimates, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenue contribution from high-ASP regular server rail kits. Operating margin similarly rose 0.2pp QoQ to 29.7%, following the gross margin trend. Net profit was boosted by a higher-than-expected nonoperating gain of c.TWD21m, mainly driven by FX gains and government subsidies.

Business outlook. Looking into 3Q26, we expect shipments of one of its CSP client's regular server rail kits to remain weak, with 2Q26 monthly shipment declining to below 30k sets per month (vs. over 80k sets per month in 1Q26), while shipments to other CSP client should remain stable. As a result, we lower our 2026E regular server revenue forecast to TWD2.0bn from TWD2.4bn previously. That said, with Nan Juen now in mass production for both its GPU and ASIC projects, we expect AI server rail kit shipments to drive further revenue growth in 3Q26 and also lift margins, consistent with our previous expectations. Nan Juen's own Vera Rubin shipment schedule remains on track, targeting late-3Q26 shipments to its primary CSP customer. On ASIC, the mass production status by the CSP further solidifies our conviction. We maintain our 20-30% supply share assumption for this generation of ASIC in 2H26E and 2027E. Combined with the structural margin improvement from Vietnam, a regular server rebound could push gross margins above our current estimates, reinforcing our positive view on the stock. We remain positive on Nan Juen's product mix shift toward higher-margin server rail kits and its expanding AI server contribution. Overall, we believe its EPS growth trajectory over 2026-28E remains firmly on track.

What we recommend: We cut our 2026-27E EPS by 11-13% to reflect the current weakness in its regular server rail kit orders, but raise our 2028E EPS by c.2% to factor in the latest positive update on ASIC and AI margin contribution. We reaffirm Buy (1) and 12M TP of TWD1,022, based on a PER of 36x (vs. its past-3-year range of 11-90x), applied to our 4-quarterforward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: worse-than-expected AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 3-8% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more positive on Nan Juen's gross margin.

19 August 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249

allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (10.4) (13.0) (0.5)
Net profit change (11.3) (9.6) 3.2
Core EPS (FD) change (12.6) (10.8) 1.7

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_001
報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_002
12-month range 203.00-805.00
Market cap (USDbn) 1.33
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 18.75
Shares outstanding (m) 71
Major shareholder Ho-Ying lnvestment Co., Ltd. (12.6%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 3,781 6,417 8,206
Operating profit (m) 1,247 2,825 4,023
Net profit (m) 1,050 2,267 3,226
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 14.867 32.093 45.660
EPS change (%) 179.9 115.9 42.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (10.6) 8.4 3.2
PER (x) 40.4 18.7 13.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 1.5 2.8
DPS 2.5 9.0 17.0
PBR (x) 10.5 7.5 5.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.5 12.9 8.8
ROE (%) 29.3 46.8 48.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 19 August 2026

Nan Juen: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 4,220 3,781 4,049 7,376 6,417 6,258 8,245 8,206 8,245
Diff (%) -10.4% -6.6% -13.0% 2.5% -0.5% -0.5%
Gross Margin (%) 46.1% 45.0% 42.1% 54.3% 55.9% 52.8% 59.1% 60.8% 59.1%
Operating profit 1,439 1,248 1,413 3,129 2,826 2,582 3,904 4,024 3,904
Op Margin (%) 34.1% 33.0% 34.9% 42.4% 44.0% 41.3% 47.3% 49.0% 47.3%
Net profit 1,185 1,050 1,175 2,507 2,268 2,092 3,126 3,226 3,127
EPS (TWD) 17.00 14.87 16.63 35.98 32.10 29.61 44.88 45.67 44.26
Diff (%) -12.6% -10.6% -10.8% 8.4% 1.7% 3.2%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 867 846 898 1,169 1,329 1,618 1,774 1,696 2,433 3,781 6,417 8,206
COGS -507 -492 -495 -585 -570 -717 -784 -758 -1,582 -2,079 -2,829 -3,221
Gross profit 360 354 403 585 759 901 990 937 851 1,702 3,588 4,985
Operating expenses -105 -102 -108 -140 -160 -191 -208 -203 -367 -455 -762 -962
Operating profit 255 251 295 444 600 710 783 734 484 1,248 2,826 4,024
Non-operating profit 39 21 2 3 2 2 2 2 48 65 9 8
Pre-tax profit 294 273 297 447 602 712 785 736 532 1,312 2,835 4,033
Income taxes -59 -54 -59 -89 -120 -142 -157 -147 -162 -262 -567 -806
Net profit 235 219 238 358 482 569 628 589 370 1,050 2,268 3,226
Net EPS (TWD) 3.33 3.10 3.37 5.06 6.82 8.06 8.89 8.34 5.31 14.87 32.10 45.67
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 41.6% 41.8% 44.9% 50.0% 57.1% 55.7% 55.8% 55.3% 35.0% 45.0% 55.9% 60.8%
Operating margin 29.5% 29.7% 32.9% 38.0% 45.1% 43.9% 44.1% 43.3% 19.9% 33.0% 44.0% 49.0%
Pre-tax margin 34.0% 32.2% 33.1% 38.2% 45.3% 44.0% 44.2% 43.4% 21.9% 34.7% 44.2% 49.1%
Net margin 27.1% 25.9% 26.5% 30.6% 36.2% 35.2% 35.4% 34.7% 15.2% 27.8% 35.3% 39.3%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 74% 41% 44% 65% 53% 91% 98% 45% 26% 55% 70% 28%
Gross profit 139% 81% 77% 110% 111% 154% 146% 60% 69% 100% 111% 39%
Operating profit 255% 159% 119% 147% 135% 182% 165% 65% 138% 158% 127% 42%
Pre-tax profit 259% 490% 82% 86% 104% 161% 164% 65% 121% 147% 116% 42%
Net profit 260% 2515% 83% 115% 105% 160% 164% 65% 92% 184% 116% 42%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 22% -2% 6% 30% 14% 22% 10% -4%
Gross profit 30% -2% 14% 45% 30% 19% 10% -5%
Operating profit 42% -2% 18% 50% 35% 18% 10% -6%
Pre-tax profit 23% -7% 9% 50% 35% 18% 10% -6%
Net profit 42% -7% 9% 50% 35% 18% 10% -6%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: 1-year-forward PER bands

報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: revenue breakdown

報告_Daiwa_南俊國際6584_20260819_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server rail kit revenue 0 479.7 357.6 712.1 1,327.1 2,711.8 5,395.1 7,184.7
Regular server rail kit revenue 0 479.7 357.6 712.1 1,270.6 2,096.3 3,422.0 4,815.9
AI server rail kit revenue 0 0 0 0 56.6 615.4 1,973.1 2,368.8

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Regular server railkit sales 0 480 358 712 1,271 2,096 3,422 4,816
AI server railkit sales 0 0 0 0 57 615 1,973 2,369
Other Revenue 2,041 1,519 967 1,212 1,106 1,069 1,021 1,021
Total Revenue 2,041 1,999 1,324 1,924 2,433 3,781 6,417 8,206
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (1,669) (1,636) (1,085) (1,422) (1,582) (2,079) (2,829) (3,221)
SG&A (208) (230) (191) (237) (301) (378) (633) (797)
Other op.expenses (31) (48) (38) (62) (66) (77) (129) (165)
Operating profit 133 85 9 203 484 1,247 2,825 4,023
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (22) (22) (17) (17) (12) (6) (6) (6)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (6) 110 12 54 60 71 15 14
Pre-tax profit 105 172 5 240 532 1,312 2,834 4,032
Tax (18) (42) 4 (48) (162) (262) (567) (806)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 87 131 8 192 370 1,050 2,267 3,226
Net profit (adjusted) 87 131 8 192 370 1,050 2,267 3,226
EPS (reported)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 14.867 32.093 45.660
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 14.867 32.093 45.660
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 14.867 32.093 45.660
DPS (TWD) 0.000 1.000 1.200 1.005 1.500 2.500 9.000 17.000
EBIT 133 85 9 203 484 1,247 2,825 4,023
EBITDA 267 218 125 322 628 1,500 3,101 4,332

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 105 172 5 240 532 1,312 2,834 4,032
Depreciation and amortisation 134 133 116 119 143 253 275 309
Tax paid (18) (42) 4 (48) (162) (262) (567) (806)
Change in working capital (238) 64 (10) (133) (251) 322 (288) (190)
Other operational CF items 57 43 (34) 117 78 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 40 370 80 295 341 1,625 2,255 3,344
Capex (68) (70) (29) (113) (122) (284) (417) (246)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (7) (4) (3) (21) (9) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (76) (74) (32) (134) (131) (284) (417) (246)
Change in debt 226 (383) (328) 111 84 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 45 171 413 0 0 10 0 0
Dividends paid 0 (52) (70) (66) (99) (177) (636) (1,201)
Other financing CF items (23) (24) (21) (285) (47) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 248 (289) (7) (240) (62) (167) (636) (1,201)
Forex effect/others (0) 1 0 (3) (2) 0 0 0
Change in cash 212 9 42 (82) 145 1,175 1,202 1,897
Free cash flow (29) 300 52 181 219 1,342 1,838 3,098

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 19 August 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 363 384 414 327 496 1,671 2,874 4,772
Inventory 330 288 262 298 487 456 620 706
Accounts receivable 432 280 297 436 536 363 615 787
Other current assets 40 13 12 23 57 57 57 57
Total current assets 1,164 965 984 1,084 1,577 2,546 4,166 6,322
Fixed assets 2,530 2,492 2,430 2,454 2,464 2,495 2,637 2,574
Goodwill & intangibles 7 7 7 9 11 11 11 11
Other non-current assets 58 50 78 394 334 334 334 334
Total assets 3,759 3,513 3,499 3,941 4,386 5,386 7,148 9,242
Short-term debt 428 253 419 117 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 305 185 161 204 242 359 488 556
Other current liabilities 319 335 259 301 411 411 411 411
Total current liabilities 1,052 773 839 622 653 770 900 967
Long-term debt 1,388 1,166 696 1,027 552 552 552 552
Other non-current liabilities 11 4 39 61 37 37 37 37
Total liabilities 2,451 1,942 1,573 1,710 1,243 1,360 1,489 1,557
Share capital 525 585 656 660 697 706 706 706
Reserves/R.E./others 784 986 1,269 1,571 2,447 3,320 4,953 6,978
Shareholders' equity 1,309 1,571 1,925 2,231 3,144 4,027 5,659 7,685
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 3,759 3,513 3,499 3,941 4,386 5,386 7,148 9,242
EV 43,839 43,421 43,086 43,203 42,442 41,268 40,065 38,166
Net debt/(cash) 1,453 1,035 700 817 56 (1,118) (2,321) (4,220)
BVPS (TWD) 24.931 26.864 29.333 33.826 45.126 57.003 80.109 108.782

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 40.2 (2.1) (33.7) 45.3 26.4 55.4 69.7 27.9
EBITDA (YoY) 137.5 (18.6) (42.5) 157.3 94.8 138.8 106.8 39.7
Operating profit (YoY) 3,825.2 (36.2) (88.8) 2,042.9 138.1 157.4 126.6 42.4
Net profit (YoY) n.a. 50.6 (93.6) 2,208.0 92.5 183.9 115.9 42.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) n.a. 35.1 (94.3) 2,197.0 82.2 179.9 115.9 42.3
Gross-profit margin 18.2 18.1 18.0 26.1 35 45.0 55.9 60.8
EBITDA margin 13.1 10.9 9.5 16.8 25.8 39.7 48.3 52.8
Operating-profit margin 6.5 4.2 0.7 10.6 19.9 33.0 44.0 49.0
Net profit margin 4.3 6.5 0.6 10.0 15.2 27.8 35.3 39.3
ROAE 7.0 9.1 0.5 9.2 13.8 29.3 46.8 48.3
ROAA 2.5 3.6 0.2 5.2 8.9 21.5 36.2 39.4
ROCE 4.5 2.8 0.3 6.3 13.7 30.1 52.4 55.7
ROIC 4.1 2.4 0.4 5.7 10.8 32.7 72.4 94.6
Net debt to equity 111.0 65.9 36.4 36.6 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 17.0 24.2 0.0 20.0 30.4 19.9 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 61.4 65.1 79.5 69.5 72.9 43.4 27.8 31.2
Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 6.5
Net interest cover (x) 6.0 3.8 0.6 12.1 38.9 198.9 472.0 685.1
Net dividend payout n.a. 60.5 53.7 792.1 51.5 47.1 60.5 53.0
Free cash flow yield n.a. 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 3.2 4.3 7.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1984, Nan Juen International Co., LTD. is a Taiwan-based slide and rail kit manufacturer headquartered in Taoyuan City. The company began its operations as a producer of furniture and kitchen rail kits, leveraging its mechanical engineering expertise to gradually expand its product portfolio. Building on decades of slide mechanism design experience, Nan Juen extended its capabilities into the server rail kit market, which has since become the primary growth driver of the business.

Nan Juen's current product portfolio spans two core categories: server rail kits and others (including kitchen rail kits, office furniture rail kits, etc.). Within the server rail kit segment, the company produces both regular server rail kits and AI server rail kits, serving major CSPs globally. The company has been listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange under the ticker 6584 TT.

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 19 August 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 Nan Juen's board consists of 9 directors, including 4 independent directors. The total number of directors is slightly lower than that of other listed companies in our coverage. Nan Juen held 6 board meetings in 2025; the actual attendee rate was 98%. Most of the board members are Nan Juen's founder's family members, which we believe presents downside risks to independent governance. However, the independent directors have diversified backgrounds with expertise in accounting and management, a positive for the board's quality.
Capital management 2 Nan Juen declared a DPS of TWD2.5 in 2025, representing a payout ratio of 48%. The payout ratio was in line with the level of 45-60% during 2021-24. As a rail kit manufacturer, Nan Juen is set to deliver solid revenue growth and FCF over our forecast horizon amidst strong ASP increase in the server rail kit market.
Related party & transaction 1 The company did not report any related-party transactions in 2025. We see limited risks from related-party transactions.
S Product quality & safety 2 Nan Juen has implemented a Project Management Information System (PMIS) to streamline R&D workflows and enhance cross-departmental collaboration. The company is further planning to introduce a Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) system, integrating the full product lifecycle from concept through to manufacturing and after-sales service. Beyond operational efficiency, the PLM adoption reflects Nan Juen's commitment to responsible product stewardship, enabling better oversight of material consumption and environmental impact across its operations. The company continues to advance its green product programme.
S Product design & lifecycle management 2 Nan Juen is actively reducing its greenhouse gas emissions under a core commitment to net- zero carbon operations, aligned with Taiwan's 2050 net-zero emission policy. The company has adopted ISO 14064-1 GHG inventory standards and maintains ISO 14001:2015 environmental management system certification, providing a structured framework for monitoring and improving energy use and emissions across its operations. Practical measures include regular audits of high-energy-consuming equipment, employee sustainability training, and collaboration with supply chain partners on green procurement. Progress is tracked through internal audits and external verification, with findings reviewed periodically to refine the company's decarbonisation strategy.
Supply chain management

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 19 Aug 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 19 August 2026

Daiwa