Stock LLM Wiki

報告_Daiwa_創意3443_20261104

更新 2026-11-07

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_創意3443_20261104_original.pdf

原始內容

Global Unichip (3443 TT)

Target price: TWD7,800.00 (from TWD5,125.00)

Shareprice(3Nov):TWD6,795.00 | Up/downside:+14.8%

Value returns when jitters rise

  • Lifting forecasts on AI strength and a broadened project base
  • Margin dilutive at gross level yet accretive at operating level
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) with a higher 12M TP of TWD7,800

What's new: Following its results release on 30 October, we raise our forecasts and 12M TP for Global Unichip (GUC). The stock more than doubled since our last update (Upgrading: unleashed capacity adding to growth, 5 August), yet its recent pullback amid increased market volatility looks to be unlocking value again for investment, so we reaffirm our Buy (1) rating. Fundamentals have unfolded strongly. According to our market research, GUC's key customer in the AI CPU space has pulled forward its order trajectory ahead of the previous schedule amid accelerated demand for internal and external AI datacentre build-out. This comes on top of its initial ramp of another new accelerator project, followed by the next generation AI CPU and accelerator ramps for the same customer, with further upside from another new AI accelerator customer in the auto space. We suggest investors take advantage of the pullback to bargain-hunt.

What's the impact: Forecast changes. In light of its key AI CPU customer accelerating its ordering trajectory, together with multiple AI projects ramping in the next 1-2 years to fire on all cylinders for growth, we lift our 2026-28E EPS by 8-50% for GUC. We forecast triple-digit % YoY EPS growth over 2Q26-2Q27, before moderating to 50% or so into 2028. While such strong growth should help sustain its hefty valuation, further rerating may be unlikely as this would depend on GUC's ability to win more AI projects than we expect, and more importantly, whether it is able to secure enough capacity from the supply chain to accommodate any incremental business amid the constrained supply environment.

Margin-accretive at operating level. On top of the AI CPU demand uplift, we expect GUC to have a total of 6 major AI projects in mass-production for 2027, including 4 CPU and 2 accelerators, all for US-based hyperscalers or system vendors mainly focusing on N3 process nodes, helping broaden GUC's AI project base. Although these projects appear margin-dilutive at gross level, they should be accretive at the operating level, thanks to GUC's prudent opex management on enhanced operating leverage.

What we recommend: Given our forecast changes, we lift our 12M TP for GUC to TWD7,800 (previous: TWD5,125), based on a higher 4-quarter forward PER target of 67x (previous: 63x), justified by its 2026-28E EPS CAGR of 66% from a PEG perspective. Although further rerating remains challenging, we are comfortable with our Buy (1) call due to the recent share price pullback unlocking value for investment again. Key downside risks to our call would be supply constraints and margin execution.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 23-37% below the consensus forecasts as we factor in the supply constraints that will moderate growth.

3

2

1

(unchanged)

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261

rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sam Weng (886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 8.3 39.2 49.4
Net profit change 7.6 32.7 50.2
Core EPS (FD) change 7.6 32.7 50.2

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 1,605.00-8,600.00
Market cap (USDbn) 27.72
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 393.27
Shares outstanding (m) 134
Major shareholder TSMC (34.8%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 68,317 130,974 179,514
Operating profit (m) 9,436 17,803 26,814
Net profit (m) 8,411 15,500 23,185
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 62.760 115.661 173.005
EPS change (%) 123.1 84.3 49.6
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 11.6 (23.0) (36.9)
PER (x) 108.3 58.7 39.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.5 0.8
DPS 20.0 35.0 55.0
PBR (x) n.a. n.a. 20.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 87.1 46.8 30.8
ROE (%) 53.3 64.5 62.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

GUC: quarterly P&L forecasts

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue* 11,448 13,897 18,755 24,219 24,705 29,061 35,023 42,185 34,141 68,317 130,974 179,514
Turnkey (MP) 9,805 11,586 16,671 20,633 21,993 25,935 31,210 37,959 25,736 58,694 117,097 160,154
NRE & others 1,643 2,310 2,084 3,586 2,713 3,126 3,813 4,226 8,405 9,623 13,877 19,360
COGS -8,335 -10,903 -14,894 -19,308 -19,992 -23,531 -28,348 -33,999 -25,687 -53,439 -105,870 -143,165
Gross profit 3,113 2,994 3,860 4,911 4,714 5,530 6,675 8,186 8,454 14,878 25,104 36,348
Opex -1,289 -1,318 -1,309 -1,526 -1,556 -1,744 -1,891 -2,109 -4,104 -5,442 -7,301 -9,534
Operating profit 1,824 1,676 2,551 3,385 3,157 3,786 4,783 6,076 4,350 9,436 17,803 26,814
Non-op. gains/losses 101 80 74 71 78 98 118 138 93 325 432 462
Pretax profit 1,925 1,756 2,626 3,455 3,235 3,884 4,901 6,214 4,443 9,761 18,235 27,276
Income taxes -278 -201 -354 -518 -485 -583 -735 -932 -673 -1,351 -2,735 -4,091
Net profit 1,646 1,555 2,272 2,937 2,750 3,301 4,166 5,282 3,770 8,410 15,500 23,185
O/S (m, FD) 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134
EPS (TWD, FD) 12.28 11.60 16.95 21.92 20.52 24.64 31.09 39.42 28.08 62.76 115.66 173.01
Margin
Gross 27.2% 21.5% 20.6% 20.3% 19.1% 19.0% 19.1% 19.4% 24.8% 21.8% 19.2% 20.2%
Opex -11.3% -9.5% -7.0% -6.3% -6.3% -6.0% -5.4% -5.0% -12.0% -8.0% -5.6% -5.3%
Operating 15.9% 12.1% 13.6% 14.0% 12.8% 13.0% 13.7% 14.4% 12.7% 13.8% 13.6% 14.9%
Net 14.4% 11.2% 12.1% 12.1% 11.1% 11.4% 11.9% 12.5% 11.0% 12.3% 11.8% 12.9%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue -8% 21% 35% 29% 2% 18% 21% 20%
Gross profit 32% -4% 29% 27% -4% 17% 21% 23%
Operating profit 45% -8% 52% 33% -7% 20% 26% 27%
Net profit 42% -6% 46% 29% -6% 20% 26% 27%
EPS (FD) 42% -6% 46% 29% -6% 20% 26% 27%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue 63% 128% 118% 95% 116% 109% 87% 74% 36% 100% 92% 37%
Gross profit 58% 47% 85% 108% 51% 85% 73% 67% 4% 76% 69% 45%
Operating profit 67% 78% 142% 169% 73% 126% 87% 80% 14% 117% 89% 51%
Net profit 71% 99% 162% 153% 67% 112% 83% 80% 9% 123% 84% 50%
EPS (FD) 72% 100% 162% 153% 67% 112% 83% 80% 10% 123% 84% 50%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * MP = mass-production, or turnkey revenue; NRE = non-recurring engineering

GUC: 3Q26 results review

TWDm 3Q26 - Actual 3Q26 - Daiwa 3Q26 - Consensus 3Q26 - Daiwa Variance Growth - Consensus Variance Growth - QoQ 4Q26E - YoY 4Q26E - Guidance 4Q26E - Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 18,755 15,748 16,160 19% 16% 35% 118% na up 17% QoQ (c.TWD22bn)
Turnkey (MP) 16,671 13,707 na 22% na 44% 190%
NRE & other 2,084 2,041 na 2% na -10% -27%
Gross profit 3,860 3,324 3,345 16% 15% 29% 85% na GM = 22%
Opex 1,309 1,339 1,355 -2% -3% -1% 27% na Opex ratio = 7%
Operating profit 2,551 1,986 1,990 28% 28% 52% 142%
Pretax profit 2,626 2,015 2,040 30% 29% 50% 159%
Net profit 2,272 1,713 1,740 33% 31% 46% 162%
FD EPS (TWD) 16.95 12.78 12.98 33% 31% 46% 162%
Margin
Gross 20.6% 21.1% 20.7% -0.5% -0.1%
Operating 13.6% 12.6% 12.3% 1.0% 1.3%
Net 12.1% 10.9% 10.8% 1.2% 1.3%
Revenue mix*
NRE & other 11% 13%
Turnkey (MP) 89% 87%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates

Note: * NRE = non-recurring engineering; MP = mass-production; others including mainly intellectual property (IP) licensing

GUC: revenue mix by business type

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
NRE revenue growth (%) 1.2 35.2 7.1 24.7 (4.8) 19.8 44.2 39.5
Turnkey (MP) revenue growth (%) 18.3 67.4 12.4 (14.9) 59.2 128.1 99.5 36.8
Others revenue growth (%) (17.8) 139.5 (41.4) (9.9) (16.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
NRE 4,668 6,313 6,763 8,436 8,033 9,623 13,877 19,360
MP (Turnkey) 10,086 16,880 18,982 16,161 25,736 58,694 117,097 160,154
Other Revenue 353 846 496 447 373 (0) 0 0
Total Revenue 15,108 24,040 26,241 25,044 34,141 68,317 130,974 179,514
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (9,878) (15,705) (18,265) (16,937) (25,687) (53,439) (105,870) (143,165)
SG&A (758) (946) (891) (935) (920) (1,133) (1,477) (1,875)
Other op.expenses (2,798) (3,290) (3,116) (3,369) (3,184) (4,309) (5,824) (7,660)
Operating profit 1,674 4,099 3,969 3,803 4,350 9,436 17,803 26,814
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 9 38 93 150 177 242 432 462
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 58 208 94 110 (84) 83 0 0
Pre-tax profit 1,741 4,345 4,155 4,062 4,443 9,762 18,235 27,276
Tax (281) (634) (647) (612) (673) (1,351) (2,735) (4,091)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 1,460 3,710 3,508 3,451 3,770 8,411 15,500 23,185
Net profit (adjusted) 1,460 3,710 3,508 3,451 3,770 8,411 15,500 23,185
EPS (reported)(TWD) 10.896 27.688 26.176 25.749 28.129 62.760 115.662 173.006
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 10.896 27.688 26.176 25.749 28.129 62.760 115.662 173.006
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 10.856 27.466 26.020 25.584 28.129 62.760 115.661 173.005
DPS (TWD) 5.000 7.000 14.000 14.000 16.000 20.000 35.000 55.000
EBIT 1,674 4,099 3,969 3,803 4,350 9,436 17,803 26,814
EBITDA 2,345 4,751 4,584 4,426 5,027 10,354 19,391 28,962

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,741 4,345 4,155 4,062 4,443 9,762 18,235 27,276
Depreciation and amortisation 672 652 615 623 677 918 1,588 2,147
Tax paid (281) (634) (647) (612) (673) (1,351) (2,735) (4,091)
Change in working capital (813) (4,363) 1,749 1,871 (6,739) (4,065) (14,826) (305)
Other operational CF items 2,912 1,595 (1,363) 298 1,149 (300) (300) (300)
Cash flow from operations 4,231 1,595 4,508 6,242 (1,143) 4,964 1,962 24,727
Capex (92) (320) (102) (471) (839) (1,366) (2,619) (1,795)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (1,700) (27) (641) (1,051) 441 (400) (350) (350)
Cash flow from investing (1,792) (347) (743) (1,522) (398) (1,766) (2,969) (2,145)
Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 24,832 (34) (5,000)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (670) (938) (1,876) (1,876) (2,144) (2,680) (4,690) (7,371)
Other financing CF items (64) (69) (85) (86) (82) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (734) (1,007) (1,962) (1,962) (2,227) 22,152 (4,724) (12,371)
Forex effect/others (15) 20 (15) 31 (10) 0 0 0
Change in cash 1,690 261 1,789 2,790 (3,778) 25,349 (5,732) 10,211
Free cash flow 4,139 1,274 4,407 5,772 (1,982) 3,597 (658) 22,932

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 7,717 7,629 9,718 13,407 8,732 34,081 28,349 38,560
Inventory 2,789 6,563 4,851 2,794 10,148 14,742 31,667 31,090
Accounts receivable 1,513 2,982 1,967 2,007 3,417 7,813 13,717 15,792
Other current assets 1,609 2,385 2,900 6,271 3,440 3,440 3,440 3,440
Total current assets 13,628 19,558 19,436 24,480 25,737 60,076 77,174 88,882
Fixed assets 912 646 559 942 1,347 1,864 3,231 3,415
Goodwill & intangibles 318 541 587 438 578 473 347 267
Other non-current assets 0 442 492 449 781 781 781 0
Total assets 14,858 21,188 21,074 26,309 28,443 63,194 81,533 92,565
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 34 5,000 3,993
Accounts payable 1,850 2,982 1,967 2,238 4,126 9,051 17,054 18,247
Other current liabilities 7,353 9,617 8,986 12,431 10,907 10,146 9,751 9,751
Total current liabilities 9,203 12,598 10,954 14,669 15,033 19,230 31,805 31,991
Long-term debt 0 0 0 73 169 25,001 19,967 14,967
Other non-current liabilities 392 528 439 273 328 328 328 328
Total liabilities 9,594 13,126 11,392 15,015 15,530 44,559 52,100 47,285
Share capital 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340
Reserves/R.E./others 3,923 6,721 8,341 9,954 11,573 17,295 28,092 43,940
Shareholders' equity 5,263 8,061 9,682 11,294 12,913 18,635 29,432 45,280
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 14,858 21,188 21,074 26,309 28,443 63,194 81,533 92,565
EV 902,888 902,976 900,887 897,270 902,042 901,558 907,223 891,005
Net debt/(cash) (7,717) (7,629) (9,718) (13,334) (8,563) (9,046) (3,382) (19,600)
BVPS (TWD) 39.275 60.153 72.245 84.279 96.355 139.056 219.625 337.881

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 11.3 59.1 9.2 (4.6) 36.3 100.1 91.7 37.1
EBITDA (YoY) 42.9 102.6 (3.5) (3.4) 13.6 106.0 87.3 49.4
Operating profit (YoY) 73.7 144.9 (3.2) (4.2) 14.4 116.9 88.7 50.6
Net profit (YoY) 71.8 154.1 (5.5) (1.6) 9.2 123.1 84.3 49.6
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 71.7 153.0 (5.3) (1.7) 9.9 123.1 84.3 49.6
Gross-profit margin 34.6 34.7 30.4 32.4 24.8 21.8 19.2 20.2
EBITDA margin 15.5 19.8 17.5 17.7 14.7 15.2 14.8 16.1
Operating-profit margin 11.1 17.1 15.1 15.2 12.7 13.8 13.6 14.9
Net profit margin 9.7 15.4 13.4 13.8 11.0 12.3 11.8 12.9
ROAE 30.0 55.7 39.5 32.9 31.1 53.3 64.5 62.1
ROAA 11.9 20.6 16.6 14.6 13.8 18.4 21.4 26.6
ROCE 34.3 61.5 44.7 36.1 35.6 33.3 36.3 45.2
ROIC n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a n.a 84.9 88.1
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 16.1 14.6 15.6 15.1 15.2 13.8 15.0 15.0
Accounts receivable (days) 32.5 34.1 34.4 29.0 29.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Current ratio (x) 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.8
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 78.8 64.2 50.6 53.5 62.1 71.1 55.8 47.6
Free cash flow yield 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 n.a. 0.4 n.a. 2.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1998, GUC is an IC design service provider focusing on AI/HPC, networking, consumer and industrial applications.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 1 GUC's Board of Directors (BoD) comprises 8 members, including 4 independent directors (50% of the board), which is significantly higher than the regulatory requirement of at least 20%. The Board demonstrates diverse expertise across legal, finance, technology, and business management. The Chairman and the President are different individuals, ensuring separation of roles and enhancing governance independence.
Capital management 1 Over the past decade, GUC has maintained a consistently high dividend payout ratio, generally above 60%, and in most years exceeding 80%. In 2025, the company distributed TWD2,144m in cash dividends, reflecting its policy of sustaining or increasing dividend amounts over time. Given GUC's asset-light business model as an IC design service provider, which does not require significant capital expenditure for manufacturing facilities, this high payout ratio is appropriate and aligns with its long-term commitment to shareholder returns.
Related party transaction & 1 GUC's sole foundry supplier is TSMC, who is also GUC's largest shareholder. As an IC design service company without onsite production, GUC's relationship with the leading foundry of advanced process nodes provides it a key competitive advantage, in our view.
S Supplychain management 2 GUC is committed to maintaining long-term partnerships with suppliers and establishing a sustainable supply chain through measures such as promoting its green action policy and concept to the entire supply chain, where all its suppliers are required to follow its Responsible Business Alliance (RBA) regulation. It also periodically conducts supplier audits to ensure the quality of suppliers.
E Water&wastewater management 1 GUC continues its green living project to reduce water consumption. In 2024, the Company maintained water-saving measures such as rainwater collection systems, automatic sensor faucets, dual-flush toilets, and regular inspections of water equipment. These efforts aim to improve water efficiency and promote conservation across operations.
E materials Waste & hazardous management 1 As an IC design service provider, GUC does not have in-house manufacturing facilities. It requires its suppliers to use recycled materials for on-site operation and transportation, and reduce the amount of expendable resources being used. In order to promote a paperless office, GUC has established a cloud operating system to reduce the use of paper-based documents.
E GHGemissions 1 GUC adopts energy-saving measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has set annual electricity conservation targets. In 2024, the Company achieved a 1% reduction in electricity use and increased green electricity to 39% of total consumption. It also continues to develop low- power and high-efficiency IP to help minimise environmental impact.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 5 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-11-07)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_創意3443_20261104_001.png 22KB 未逐項檢視(<40KB) 股價表現小圖,未採用
報告_Daiwa_創意3443_20261104_002.png 23KB 未逐項檢視(<40KB) 營收組合(turnkey/NRE)圖,未採用
報告_Daiwa_創意3443_20261104_003.png 42KB 真資料圖 GUC 4 季前瞻本益比通道(2006–2026,倍數線 25x/35x/45x/55x/65x/75x),2025–26 年股價衝至 8,500 以上