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報告_Daiwa_全新2455_20261105

更新 2026-11-07

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_全新2455_20261105_original.pdf

原始內容

Visual Photonics Epitaxy (2455 TT)

Target price: TWD555.00 (from TWD535.00)

Shareprice(5Nov):TWD346.00 | Up/downside:+60.4%

Upgrading: value resurfaces after jitters rise

  • Raising forecasts on both higher top-line and margin trajectories
  • Intact optical ramp in AI connectivity despite market volatility
  • Upgrading our rating to Buy (1) with a higher 12M TP of TWD555

What's new: Following VPEC's robust 3Q26 earnings release on 30 October and our subsequent market research, we raise our forecasts and 12M TP, premised upon: 1) a higher top-line growth, thanks to its faster capacity conversion to meet strong demand for AI optical communication (OC) devices; and 2) a higher substrate supply consigned by customers, helping margin. Our thesis remains intact for VPEC to enjoy strong growth from its share gains in the AI OC market, with broadened customer base and applications. Given increased jitters on AI bubble and macro issues post the US mid-term elections, we upgrade our rating one notch to Buy (1) and suggest investors take advantage of market volatility to bargain-hunt.

What's the impact: Forecast changes. We raise our 2026-27E EPS by 34% to factor in VPEC's robust 3Q26 results and higher revenue growth in 4Q26, on our latest market research. This is premised upon: 1) faster-thanexpected capacity conversion from GaAs for mobile to InP for AI OC at its MOCVD reactors to mitigate supply constraints and meet more optical demand; and 2) increased InP substrate supply consigned by customers, helping to increase GM. As such, we expect VPEC's earnings growth to remain strong through 2027, supporting its hefty valuation.

Speeding up capacity conversion to meet more demand. Given a limited floor space in its Fab 2, VPEC may accommodate 70+ MOCVD reactors in 2027 (currently: 65). Yet, given still-suboptimal utilisation in its RF business due to weak consumer demand for smartphones on cost inflation, VPEC is accelerating capacity conversion to accommodate strong AI OC demand, in order to narrow the supply/demand gap.

Increasing substrate consignment to benefit GM. Due to the InP substrate supply constraint and strong AI demand, customers with strong purchasing power are increasing substrate consignment to VPEC, adding to GM since the consigned materials are excluded from the GM calculation. We continue to expect the company to register AI-related revenue, including PD, LD and HAMR, with broadened customer base, of TWD1.21.3bn this year, TWD3bn in 2027E and at least TWD4bn in 2028E, from TWD550m in 2025 (see our preview note, 8 September).

What we recommend: We raise our 12M TP for VPEC to TWD555 (previous: TWD535), still based on our 4-quarter-forward PER of 58x. We upgrade our rating by one notch to Buy (1), with key downside risk of China's export control inducing any unexpected supply chain hiccups.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 14-36% below Bloomberg consensus, as we believe the street is too aggressive on VPEC's AI ramp.

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Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261

rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sam Weng (886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 2.1 2.3 (0.5)
Net profit change 4.7 3.9 0.2
Core EPS (FD) change 4.2 3.4 (0.3)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 131.00-606.00
Market cap (USDbn) 1.99
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 153.50
Shares outstanding (m) 189
Major shareholder Investco Ltd (6.6%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 4,770 6,723 7,863
Operating profit (m) 1,340 2,148 2,613
Net profit (m) 1,129 1,768 2,152
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 5.979 9.366 11.401
EPS change (%) 102.7 56.6 21.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 2.9 (13.8) (36.3)
PER (x) 57.9 36.9 30.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.3 1.9
DPS 2.7 4.5 6.6
PBR (x) 16.7 13.5 11.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.1 25.8 21.6
ROE (%) 31.3 40.3 40.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

VPEC: quarterly P&L forecasts

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Total revenue 959 965 1,342 1,503 1,486 1,621 1,740 1,875 3,380 4,770 6,723 7,863
COGS -594 -593 -739 -824 -817 -887 -946 -1,007 -2,160 -2,750 -3,658 -4,199
Gross profit 365 373 603 679 669 734 794 868 1,220 2,019 3,065 3,665
Opex -139 -149 -183 -209 -208 -222 -235 -251 -550 -680 -916 -1,051
Operating profit 227 224 419 470 461 512 559 617 669 1,340 2,148 2,613
EBITDA 301 301 498 550 547 596 646 704 960 1,651 2,493 2,936
Non-op gain/loss 17 13 4 8 8 8 8 8 -2 41 32 39
Pretax profit 244 237 423 477 468 520 567 625 667 1,381 2,180 2,652
Income taxes -49 -23 -85 -95 -94 -78 -113 -127 -119 -252 -412 -500
Net profit 195 214 338 382 375 442 454 498 548 1,129 1,768 2,152
FD O/S (m) 185 187 188 189 189 189 189 189 185 189 189 189
FD EPS (TWD) 1.06 1.14 1.80 2.02 1.98 2.34 2.40 2.64 2.96 5.98 9.37 11.40
Revenue mix
MC* 74% 73% 57% 50% 47% 46% 43% 39% 75% 61% 44% 38%
OC** 16% 18% 33% 41% 43% 44% 46% 49% 16% 29% 46% 48%
OS*** 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 9% 9% 11% 14%
Margin
Gross 38% 39% 45% 45% 45% 45% 46% 46% 36% 42% 46% 47%
Operating 24% 23% 31% 31% 31% 32% 32% 33% 20% 28% 32% 33%
Net 20% 22% 25% 25% 25% 27% 26% 27% 16% 24% 26% 27%
Growth (QoQ)
Total revenue 0% 1% 39% 12% -1% 9% 7% 8%
Gross profit 2% 2% 62% 13% -1% 10% 8% 9%
Operating profit 8% -1% 87% 12% -2% 11% 9% 10%
EBITDA 7% 0% 66% 10% -1% 9% 9% 9%
Net profit 1% 9% 58% 13% -2% 18% 3% 10%
FD EPS 1% 8% 58% 12% -2% 18% 3% 10%
Growth (YoY)
Total revenue 21% 35% 47% 57% 55% 68% 30% 25% 4% 41% 41% 17%
Gross profit 15% 52% 101% 90% 83% 97% 32% 28% -5% 66% 52% 20%
Operating profit 27% 83% 164% 125% 103% 129% 33% 31% -7% 100% 60% 22%
EBITDA 20% 55% 115% 95% 82% 98% 30% 28% -5% 72% 51% 18%
Net profit 24% 488% 111% 97% 92% 107% 34% 30% -18% 106% 57% 22%
FD EPS 24% 482% 107% 93% 88% 105% 34% 30% -18% 102% 57% 22%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Note: * MC = microwave communication such as RF PA; ** OC = optical communication including PD and LD; *** OS = optical sensing & imaging including VCSEL and EEL for consumer and automotive applications

VPEC: 3Q26 results and 4Q26 outlook updates

TWDm 3Q26 - Actual 3Q26 - Daiwa 3Q26 - Variance Growth - QoQ Growth - YoY Guidance 4Q26E Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 1,342 1,345 0% 39% 47% na c.TWD1.4bn (+5% QoQ)
Gross profit 603 577 4% 62% 101% na 44%
Operating profit 419 390 8% 87% 164%
Pretax profit 423 397 7% 79% 111%
Net profit 338 318 6% 58% 111%
Adjusted EPS (TWD) 1.80 1.69 6% 58% 107%
Margin
Gross 44.9% 42.9% 2.0%
Operating 31.3% 29.0% 2.3%
Net 25.2% 23.6% 1.6%
Revenue mix*
MC 57% 55%
OSC 43% 45%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Note: * MC = microwave communication mainly RF PA; OSC = optical sensing & communication including PD and LD (VCSEL and EEL)

VPEC: revenue mix by application*

VPEC: 4-quarter-forward PER band

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * MC = microwave communication mainly RF PA; OSC = optical sensing & communication including PD, LD and 3D laser sensing

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Wafer shipment ('000) 557 362 351 418 438 486 564 647
Capacity utilization (%) 92 57 54 63 65 70 81 94
Blended ASP (USD) 232 244 245 241 248 309 373 380

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Microwave communication 3,135 2,074 2,091 2,550 2,544 2,932 2,932 2,996
Optical sensing & communication 473 530 603 691 836 1,837 3,791 4,868
Other Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Revenue 3,609 2,604 2,694 3,241 3,380 4,770 6,723 7,863
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (2,089) (1,515) (1,585) (1,962) (2,160) (2,750) (3,658) (4,199)
SG&A (182) (151) (139) (169) (167) (254) (343) (381)
Other op.expenses (282) (358) (427) (389) (383) (425) (573) (670)
Operating profit 1,057 580 542 721 669 1,340 2,148 2,613
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (5) (2) 2 14 8 7 12 31
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 1 90 (3) 83 (12) 34 20 8
Pre-tax profit 1,053 667 542 818 665 1,381 2,180 2,652
Tax (198) (123) (91) (147) (119) (252) (412) (500)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 855 545 450 671 546 1,129 1,768 2,152
Net profit (adjusted) 855 545 450 671 546 1,129 1,768 2,152
EPS (reported)(TWD) 4.624 2.946 2.435 3.629 2.955 5.979 9.366 11.401
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 4.624 2.946 2.435 3.629 2.955 5.979 9.366 11.401
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 4.624 2.946 2.435 3.629 2.951 5.979 9.366 11.401
DPS (TWD) 2.590 4.000 2.300 2.200 3.220 2.650 4.500 6.600
EBIT 1,057 580 542 721 669 1,340 2,148 2,613
EBITDA 1,326 823 826 1,009 960 1,651 2,493 2,936

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,053 667 542 818 665 1,381 2,180 2,652
Depreciation and amortisation 269 243 284 288 291 311 345 322
Tax paid (198) (123) (91) (147) (119) (252) (412) (500)
Change in working capital (109) 26 (128) 68 (170) (90) (330) 40
Other operational CF items 163 (170) (34) 59 (29) (0) 0 (0)
Cash flow from operations 1,179 644 572 1,086 637 1,350 1,783 2,514
Capex (467) (418) (71) (44) (361) (654) (800) (320)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (3) (52) (0) (3) (3) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (470) (470) (71) (47) (364) (654) (800) (320)
Change in debt (100) 110 10 (300) 100 (150) (75) (38)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (479) (740) (425) (407) (592) (500) (849) (1,246)
Other financing CF items (2) (2) (3) (4) (4) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (581) (632) (419) (711) (496) (650) (924) (1,283)
Forex effect/others 16 1 (9) 22 (11) 0 0 0
Change in cash 144 (457) 73 350 (233) 46 58 911
Free cash flow 711 226 501 1,042 276 696 983 2,194

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,210 753 826 1,176 945 991 1,049 1,960
Inventory 415 487 505 619 706 776 926 976
Accounts receivable 585 291 622 380 517 657 1,007 927
Other current assets 92 89 93 109 138 80 90 90
Total current assets 2,302 1,620 2,045 2,284 2,307 2,504 3,073 3,954
Fixed assets 2,405 2,712 2,490 2,262 2,315 2,714 3,008 2,934
Goodwill & intangibles 5 6 7 8 8 6 5 5
Other non-current assets 138 74 35 30 47 44 44 44
Total assets 4,851 4,412 4,578 4,583 4,677 5,269 6,130 6,937
Short-term debt 480 200 100 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 372 176 397 337 392 512 682 692
Other current liabilities 520 356 302 410 387 535 455 423
Total current liabilities 1,372 732 799 747 778 1,047 1,137 1,114
Long-term debt 200 590 700 500 600 300 150 75
Other non-current liabilities 0 7 9 7 4 0 0 0
Total liabilities 1,573 1,329 1,508 1,254 1,382 1,347 1,287 1,189
Share capital 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849
Reserves/R.E./others 1,429 1,234 1,220 1,480 1,446 2,073 2,994 3,899
Shareholders' equity 3,278 3,083 3,069 3,329 3,295 3,922 4,843 5,748
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 4,851 4,412 4,578 4,583 4,677 5,269 6,130 6,937
EV 64,784 65,351 65,289 64,639 64,969 64,623 64,415 63,429
Net debt/(cash) (530) 37 (26) (676) (345) (691) (899) (1,885)
BVPS (TWD) 17.728 16.671 16.599 18.006 17.845 20.777 25.656 30.449

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 36.4 (27.8) 3.5 20.3 4.3 41.1 40.9 17.0
EBITDA (YoY) 36.3 (37.9) 0.4 22.2 (4.9) 72.0 51.0 17.7
Operating profit (YoY) 53.7 (45.1) (6.5) 33.0 (7.2) 100.2 60.4 21.6
Net profit (YoY) 60.6 (36.3) (17.3) 49.0 (18.7) 106.9 56.6 21.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 60.6 (36.3) (17.3) 49.0 (18.7) 102.7 56.6 21.7
Gross-profit margin 42.1 41.8 41.2 39.5 36.1 42.3 45.6 46.6
EBITDA margin 36.7 31.6 30.7 31.1 28.4 34.6 37.1 37.3
Operating-profit margin 29.3 22.3 20.1 22.3 19.8 28.1 32.0 33.2
Net profit margin 23.7 20.9 16.7 20.7 16.1 23.7 26.3 27.4
ROAE 27.7 17.1 14.6 21.0 16.5 31.3 40.3 40.6
ROAA 18.7 11.8 10.0 14.7 11.8 22.7 31.0 32.9
ROCE 27.7 14.8 14.0 18.7 17.3 33.0 46.6 48.3
ROIC 32.0 16.1 14.6 20.8 19.6 35.4 48.6 54.3
Net debt to equity n.a. 1.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 18.8 18.4 16.9 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.9 18.8
Accounts receivable (days) 53.0 61.4 61.9 56.4 48.5 45.0 45.2 44.9
Current ratio (x) 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.7 3.5
Net interest cover (x) 207.2 281.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 89.9 86.5 78.1 90.4 88.7 91.3 75.3 70.5
Free cash flow yield 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 0.4 1.1 1.5 3.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1996, Visual Photonics Epitaxy (VPEC) is a veteran epiwafer maker in Taiwan. The company started with growing epiwafers for LED applications and then transitioned to microwave communications. Strategically moving up the technology verticals, in recent years VPEC has tapped into the high-value-add applications of optical sensing & communications for both blended ASP and margin accretion.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 VPEC's board of directors (BoD) has 11 members, including 3 independent directors, representing 27% of total directors in 2023, which is slightly higher than the regulatory requirement but lower than at other semiconductor companies under our coverage. Its chairman and general manager are not the same person and most of the directors are not executive management. In addition to the annual internal performance evaluation of the BoD, VPEC also requests an external evaluation of its BoD at least once every 3 years. We believe this helps strengthen the functionalities of the BoD despite a relatively low percentage of independent directors.
Capital management 1 In the past 10 years, the company's payout ratio has been above 78%. In terms of the dollar amount, its cash dividends were TWD2.3 per share in 2017-23. We view VPEC has well- managed dividend policy and see its dividend payout ratio is appropriate.
Related party & transaction 1 The company does not have any meaningful related-party transactions.
S Supplychain management 2 VPEC has set up a "Supplier Management Procedure (M0047)" and evaluates its suppliers in terms of environmental management, compliance, and green products. The company audits its suppliers to ensure a good performance in environmental sustainability, health & safety and corporate social responsibility.
E Water&wastewater management 2 It has appointed professionals according to regulations to conduct environmental management of air pollution, waste water, waste and hazardous substances. Also, it has introduced the ISO14001 environmental management system and passed the SGS certification in 2002.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 3 VPEC conducts audits on companies that handle the company's environmentally sensitive waste disposal to ensure the fulfilment of environmental sustainability and the implementation of corporate social responsibility.
E GHGemissions 3 It has set a target to reduce its GHG emissions and energy consumption per unit of product by 5% per year and verify greenhouse gas inventories bt ISO 14064 regulations.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 5 Nov 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-11-07)

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