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報告_Daiwa_億豐8464_3Q26_20261104

更新 2026-11-07

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_億豐8464_3Q26_20261104_original.pdf

原始內容

Nien Made Enterprise (8464 TT)

Target price: TWD520.00 (from TWD515.00)

Shareprice(4Nov):TWD361.00 | Up/downside:+44.0%

3Q26 results: record-high gross margin

  • Despite record-high gross margin, 3Q26 net profit missed on opex
  • 2027: ongoing product mix optimisation trend
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; raising 12M TP to TWD520

What's new: Nien Made reported its 3Q26 results on 4 November 2026 after market hours. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call (see our previous flash, 2Q26 results: record-high gross margin, 12 August 2026, for more information).

What's the impact: 3Q26 results review: slight miss on higher opex. Nien Made's 3Q26 revenue was TWD8,482m (+7.0% QoQ, +15.9% YoY), roughly in line with our estimate and the consensus. Its gross margin was 60.8%, a record-high level, up from 60.0% in 2Q26 and 58.7% in 3Q25, beating our estimate (59.6%) and the consensus (59.8%). This was driven by price hikes in its custom-made segment and a lower tariff effect, despite being partially offset by restocking demand from ready-made products. However, its operating margin came in at 29.2%, up from 27.2% in 2Q26 and the same as in 3Q25, lower than our estimate (30.3%) and the consensus (30.1%), due to surging fuel surcharges following oil price hikes in 3Q26. As such, operating profit was TWD2,473m (+14.5% QoQ, +15.9% YoY), missing our estimate and the consensus by 6.3% and 2.5%, respectively. Nien Made's 3Q26 net profit stood at TWD1,870m (+34.5% QoQ, +9.6% YoY), missing our estimate and the Bloomberg consensus by 8.9% and 4.2%, respectively. Its 3Q26 EPS came in at TWD6.38.

2027: several new initiatives in products and markets. Nien Made is on track to meet its 2026 target of growing its custom-made revenue in the US by mid-single-digit % YoY, custom-made revenue in non-US markets by high-single-digit % YoY and ready-made revenue by low-single-digit % YoY. Besides, Nien Made will continue to launch new products such as 'toolfree, drill-free' easy-install products and new blind programmes, and upgrade its motorised window coverings. Nien Made will continue to invest in its window covering brands, channels and service network (ie, European markets) as well as manufacturing, which should be the key factor to drive more order wins in the long run, in our view. We cut our 2026E EPS by 3%, after factoring in the 3Q26 results and keep our 2027-28E EPS almost unchanged.

What we recommend: We reaffirm our Buy (1) call on Nien Made and raise our 12M TP to TWD520 (from TWD515), still based on a target PER of 20x on our 1-year forward EPS vs. its past 3-year PER trading range of 11-21x. Key downside risks: lower-than-expected revenue from custommade products and macro/tariff uncertainties.

How we differ: We are more positive on the company's leading position with share-gain potential. Nien Made is one of our preferred stocks in Taiwan's non-tech sector.

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(unchanged)

Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (1.1) (0.7) (0.4)
Net profit change (3.0) 0.3 0.6
Core EPS (FD) change (2.9) 0.4 0.7

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 306.00-428.00
Market cap (USDbn) 3.22
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 4.86
Shares outstanding (m) 293
Major shareholder Nien family (44.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 31,791 33,827 36,016
Operating profit (m) 9,188 10,317 11,381
Net profit (m) 6,849 7,600 8,482
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 23.357 25.932 28.938
EPS change (%) 3.9 11.0 11.6
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (2.3) (0.9) 0.8
PER (x) 15.5 13.9 12.5
Dividend yield (%) 4.5 5.0 5.6
DPS 16.4 18.2 20.3
PBR (x) 3.3 3.0 2.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 7.6 6.7
ROE (%) 22.0 22.5 22.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nien Made: revisions to Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecasts

(TWDm) 2026E - New 2026E - Previous 2026E - Change 2027E - New 2027E - Previous 2027E - Change 2028E - New 2028E - Previous 2028E - Change
Sales 31,791 32,157 -1.1% 33,827 34,082 -0.7% 36,016 36,161 -0.4%
Gross profit 19,075 19,181 -0.6% 20,330 20,381 -0.3% 21,754 21,661 0.4%
Gross profit margin 60.0% 59.7% 0.4pp 60.1% 59.8% 0.3pp 60.4% 59.9% 0.5pp
Operating profit 9,188 9,309 -1.3% 10,317 10,293 0.2% 11,381 11,318 0.6%
Operating profit margin 28.9% 29.0% -0.1pp 30.5% 30.2% 0.3pp 31.6% 31.3% 0.3pp
Net profit 6,849 7,062 -3.0% 7,600 7,581 0.3% 8,482 8,434 0.6%
Net profit margin 21.5% 22.0% -0.4pp 22.5% 22.2% 0.2pp 23.5% 23.3% 0.2pp
EPS (TWD) 23.36 24.05 -2.9% 25.93 25.82 0.4% 28.94 28.73 0.7%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Nien Made: 3Q26 results review

(TWDm) 3Q26 results Daiwa forecast Difference Consensus Difference
Revenue 8,482 8,704 -2.6% 8,413 0.8%
Gross profit 5,159 5,188 -0.5% 5,034 2.5%
Operating profit 2,473 2,638 -6.3% 2,536 -2.5%
Pre-tax profit 2,505 2,865 -12.6% 2,688 -6.8%
Net profit 1,870 2,054 -8.9% 1,953 -4.2%
Basic EPS (TWD) 6.38 7.01 -8.9% 6.69 -4.6%
Margin
Gross margin 60.8% 59.6% 1.2pp 59.8% 1pp
Operating margin 29.2% 30.3% -1.1pp 30.1% -1pp
Pre-tax margin 29.5% 32.9% -3.4pp 32.0% -2.4pp
Net margin 22.0% 23.6% -1.5pp 23.2% -1.2pp

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Nien Made: quarterly P&L

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E
Revenue 7,305 7,928 8,482 8,077 7,600 8,300 9,200 8,727 31,791 33,827 36,016
Gross profit 4,317 4,753 5,159 4,846 4,507 4,980 5,566 5,277 19,075 20,330 21,754
Operating profit 2,053 2,160 2,473 2,501 2,057 2,475 3,061 2,724 9,188 10,317 11,381
Pre-tax profit 2,326 2,190 2,505 2,779 2,182 2,600 3,186 2,850 9,800 10,818 11,882
Net profit 1,647 1,391 1,870 1,940 1,525 1,829 2,258 1,989 6,849 7,600 8,482
Basic EPS (TWD) 5.62 4.75 6.38 6.62 5.20 6.24 7.71 6.79 23.37 25.94 28.95
Margin
Gross margin 59.1% 60.0% 60.8% 60.0% 59.3% 60.0% 60.5% 60.5% 60.0% 60.1% 60.4%
Operating margin 28.1% 27.2% 29.2% 31.0% 27.1% 29.8% 33.3% 31.2% 28.9% 30.5% 31.6%
Pre-tax margin 31.8% 27.6% 29.5% 34.4% 28.7% 31.3% 34.6% 32.7% 30.8% 32.0% 33.0%
Net margin 22.5% 17.5% 22.0% 24.0% 20.1% 22.0% 24.5% 22.8% 21.5% 22.5% 23.5%
YoY
Revenue 0.4% 2.9% 15.9% 5.3% 4.0% 4.7% 8.5% 8.0% 6.1% 6.4% 6.5%
Gross profit 2.0% 4.1% 20.1% 7.0% 4.4% 4.8% 7.9% 8.9% 8.2% 6.6% 7.0%
Operating profit -1.3% -9.8% 15.9% 8.4% 0.2% 14.6% 23.8% 8.9% 3.0% 12.3% 10.3%
Pre-tax profit -1.3% 30.6% 5.4% -0.9% -6.2% 18.7% 27.2% 2.5% 6.4% 10.4% 9.8%
Net profit -7.4% 20.7% 9.6% -1.2% -7.4% 31.5% 20.7% 2.5% 3.7% 11.0% 11.6%
QoQ
Revenue -4.8% 8.5% 7.0% -4.8% -5.9% 9.2% 10.8% -5.1%
Gross profit -4.7% 10.1% 8.6% -6.1% -7.0% 10.5% 11.8% -5.2%
Operating profit -11.0% 5.2% 14.5% 1.2% -17.8% 20.3% 23.7% -11.0%
Pre-tax profit -17.1% -5.8% 14.4% 11.0% -21.5% 19.2% 22.5% -10.6%
Net profit -16.1% -15.6% 34.5% 3.8% -21.4% 20.0% 23.4% -11.9%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Global PVC price

Nien Made: 1-year forward PER

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Ready-Made (TWDm) 9,438.1 8,974.9 6,728.3 7,383.8 7,192.6 7,264.5 7,409.8 7,558.0
Custom-Made (TWDm) 18,618.3 18,818.4 19,108.5 20,970.0 21,877.4 23,627.6 25,517.8 27,559.2
Others (TWDm) 976.6 1,158.1 1,076.5 1,181.4 899.1 899.1 899.1 899.1

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
America 21,190 22,042 19,049 20,897 20,639 21,671 22,754 23,892
Europe 6,456 5,358 5,945 6,653 7,454 8,572 9,430 10,373
Other Revenue 1,379 1,552 1,919 1,985 1,876 1,548 1,643 1,752
Total Revenue 29,024 28,951 26,913 29,535 29,969 31,791 33,827 36,016
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (13,224) (13,055) (11,981) (12,630) (12,346) (12,716) (13,497) (14,262)
SG&A (7,869) (8,324) (7,780) (8,366) (8,551) (9,696) (9,810) (10,157)
Other op.expenses (178) (205) (182) (172) (155) (191) (203) (216)
Operating profit 7,754 7,368 6,970 8,368 8,917 9,188 10,317 11,381
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (7) 61 443 619 555 501 501 501
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (288) 1,021 620 491 (256) 112 0 0
Pre-tax profit 7,459 8,450 8,033 9,477 9,215 9,800 10,818 11,882
Tax (1,896) (2,375) (2,383) (2,359) (2,279) (2,597) (2,813) (2,971)
Min. int./pref. div./others (243) 99 (162) (215) (335) (355) (405) (430)
Net profit (reported) 5,320 6,173 5,488 6,903 6,601 6,849 7,600 8,482
Net profit (adjusted) 5,320 6,173 5,488 6,903 6,601 6,849 7,600 8,482
EPS (reported)(TWD) 18.155 21.067 18.728 23.558 22.528 23.372 25.938 28.945
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 18.155 21.067 18.728 23.558 22.528 23.372 25.938 28.945
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 18.155 21.020 18.682 23.493 22.477 23.357 25.932 28.938
DPS (TWD) 11.000 11.000 12.000 14.500 16.000 16.361 18.157 20.262
EBIT 7,754 7,368 6,970 8,368 8,917 9,188 10,317 11,381
EBITDA 8,624 8,327 7,919 9,423 9,976 10,356 11,607 12,794

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 7,459 8,450 8,033 9,477 9,215 9,800 10,818 11,882
Depreciation and amortisation 870 959 949 1,056 1,059 1,168 1,289 1,413
Tax paid (1,896) (2,375) (2,383) (2,359) (2,279) (2,597) (2,813) (2,971)
Change in working capital (1,332) 299 1,325 130 (447) (253) (401) (398)
Other operational CF items 942 (408) (1,041) 243 (496) (501) (501) (501)
Cash flow from operations 6,043 6,924 6,882 8,547 7,052 7,617 8,393 9,426
Capex (1,050) (1,564) (817) (1,879) (1,541) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 4 90 11 11 142 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (82) (305) 687 (611) (214) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (1,129) (1,778) (119) (2,478) (1,613) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)
Change in debt (2,100) (2,817) 0 417 188 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,930) (3,223) (3,223) (3,516) (4,249) (4,688) (4,794) (5,320)
Other financing CF items (249) (124) (123) 86 (425) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (5,279) (6,165) (3,346) (3,014) (4,486) (4,688) (4,794) (5,320)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash (365) (1,019) 3,417 3,055 953 929 1,599 2,106
Free cash flow 4,993 5,360 6,065 6,668 5,511 5,617 6,393 7,426

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 10,424 9,373 12,820 15,857 16,872 17,801 19,400 21,506
Inventory 4,625 5,718 4,104 4,066 3,678 3,941 4,102 4,377
Accounts receivable 2,993 2,402 2,624 2,865 3,045 3,157 3,398 3,597
Other current assets 1,320 1,742 1,671 1,773 1,909 1,909 1,909 1,909
Total current assets 19,363 19,236 21,219 24,560 25,504 26,807 28,808 31,389
Fixed assets 7,447 8,588 9,046 10,588 11,494 12,581 13,573 14,470
Goodwill & intangibles 105 326 171 78 250 250 250 250
Other non-current assets 2,479 2,403 2,175 2,632 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778
Total assets 29,394 30,554 32,611 37,858 40,025 42,416 45,409 48,886
Short-term debt 2,817 0 0 402 571 571 571 571
Accounts payable 794 848 804 963 749 871 872 949
Other current liabilities 5,781 5,727 4,917 5,322 4,824 4,824 4,824 4,824
Total current liabilities 9,393 6,575 5,721 6,687 6,144 6,266 6,267 6,344
Long-term debt 0 0 0 402 530 530 530 530
Other non-current liabilities 2,102 2,196 2,460 2,689 2,941 2,941 2,941 2,941
Total liabilities 11,495 8,771 8,181 9,777 9,616 9,738 9,739 9,816
Share capital 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,930
Reserves/R.E./others 14,570 18,553 21,043 24,681 27,074 29,344 32,335 35,735
Shareholders' equity 17,500 21,483 23,973 27,611 30,004 32,274 35,266 38,666
Minority interests 399 300 457 470 405 405 405 405
Total equity & liabilities 29,394 30,554 32,611 37,858 40,025 42,416 45,409 48,886
EV 98,572 96,707 93,417 91,197 90,414 89,485 87,886 85,780
Net debt/(cash) (7,607) (9,373) (12,820) (15,053) (15,771) (16,700) (18,299) (20,405)
BVPS (TWD) 59.723 73.316 81.815 94.229 102.395 110.142 120.352 131.956

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 18.9 (0.3) (7.0) 9.7 1.5 6.1 6.4 6.5
EBITDA (YoY) 11.5 (3.4) (4.9) 19.0 5.9 3.8 12.1 10.2
Operating profit (YoY) 11.4 (5.0) (5.4) 20.1 6.6 3.0 12.3 10.3
Net profit (YoY) 10.9 16.0 (11.1) 25.8 (4.4) 3.7 11.0 11.6
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 10.9 15.8 (11.1) 25.8 (4.3) 3.9 11.0 11.6
Gross-profit margin 54.4 54.9 55.5 57.2 58.8 60.0 60.1 60.4
EBITDA margin 29.7 28.8 29.4 31.9 33.3 32.6 34.3 35.5
Operating-profit margin 26.7 25.4 25.9 28.3 29.8 28.9 30.5 31.6
Net profit margin 18.3 21.3 20.4 23.4 22.0 21.5 22.5 23.5
ROAE 32.4 31.7 24.1 26.8 22.9 22.0 22.5 22.9
ROAA 18.6 20.6 17.4 19.6 17.0 16.6 17.3 18.0
ROCE 37.6 34.7 30.2 31.4 29.5 28.1 29.2 29.6
ROIC 57.5 46.7 40.8 51.0 48.5 44.1 45.8 47.4
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 25.4 28.1 29.7 24.9 24.7 26.5 26.0 25.0
Accounts receivable (days) 36.2 34.0 34.1 33.9 36.0 35.6 35.4 35.4
Current ratio (x) 2.1 2.9 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.9
Net interest cover (x) 1,070.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 60.6 52.2 64.1 61.5 71.0 70.0 70.0 70.0
Free cash flow yield 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.3 5.2 5.3 6.0 7.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in July 2007 and listed on Taiwan's main board in December 2015, Nien Made Enterprise (Nien Made) produces window coverings such as venetian blinds, shutters and shades (ie, cellular shades, roller blinds and roman blinds). Its major clients include dealers, designers and small specialty stores as well as big box retailers (ie, Home Depot and Wal-Mart).

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 2 Its CEO and Chairman is the same person. Also, 3 brothers, with 1 being the CEO (Chairman) and 2 being Vice President, are in charge of different divisions, managing and collaborating collectively, which we view as a positive sign for solid corporate governance.
G Capital management 2 Nien Made's dividend payout ratio was c.80% before 2019, but dropped to 52-71% from 2019 to 2025, which we attribute to its capacity expansion plans in Mexico and some adjustment for COVID-19.
Related party & transaction 2 Revenue from related-party transactions stood at c.60% of total revenue over 2022-25, with majority from Norman International Inc. and its subsidiary. We see no evidence of suspicious activities.
E Productdesign& lifecycle management 1 We note Nien Made has improved its quality, safety and efficiency throughout its product lifecycle. The company has developed its own B2B platform for its customers for a better user experience and efficiency. Nien Made's products have a lifespan ranging from 10 to 20 years. Therefore, in addition to controlling production conditions through equipment such as drying kilns and controlled-environment storage, Nien Made also focus on mitigating consumers' health and safety risks.
S Supplychain management 2 Nien Made's overall local-to-local raw material sourcing was at 71% in 2023, which we believe will help reduce transportation costs in the long term. Moreover, Nien Made established supplier management policies and relevant regulations, and its 234 suppliers signed the Supplier Code of Conduct as of 2023.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 24 Jun 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company