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報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260918

更新 2026-09-24

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260918_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260918_001.png 25.6KB 真資料圖 股價走勢圖(TWD,藍線 Jentech Pr)與相對 TWSE Index 表現(%,橘線),橫軸 Sep-25~Sep-26,2026 年初攀升後 3-6 月回檔、7-9 月再度走高
報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260918_002.png 23.5KB 裝飾·banner Daiwa Capital Markets 報告封面標題橫幅(橘紅漸層背景+Daiwa logo),文字「Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT): 18 September 2026」,無資料內容

原始內容

JentechPrecisionIndustrial (3653TT)

Target price: TWD9,420.00 (from TWD6,770.00)

Shareprice(18Sep):TWD5,525.00 | Up/downside:+70.5%

3Q26 preview: stronger-than-expected spec upgrades

  • We maintain our positive view on Jentech's product roadmap
  • Likely EPS upward revision trend in the following months
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; raising 12-month TP to TWD9,420

What's new: We received an update from Jentech on 18 September. Its share price has been negatively impacted week to date by market talk concerning the adoption of removable lids in Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra. However, we maintain our positive view on its ongoing product-upgrade roadmap and expect the ASP-upgrade trend to continue in the following years. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call (see our latest memo, Record-high monthly revenue for August; 3Q26 QTD revenue tracking ahead, on 7 September 2026).

What's the impact: Promising ASP upgrade trend. Due to rising thermal design power (TDP), we expect the ASP of Jentech's removable lid for Vera Rubin or Rubin Ultra to be 5-6x higher vs. that of the current onepiece lid. Following better-than-expected shipments during the ramp-up of Vera Rubin, we now forecast its 3Q26 revenue at TWD9.65bn (previously TWD9.26bn vs. Bloomberg consensus of TWD9.62bn) and 4Q26 revenue at TWD10.62bn (previously TWD10.20bn, vs. Bloomberg consensus of TWD10.32bn). We believe there could be some revenue upside potential, subject to the adoption of removable lids for Vera Rubin or Rubin Ultra. We now forecast an EPS CAGR of 86.1% over 2026-28E, from 78.8% previously, as we believe further product upgrades and a favourable product mix should continue to support improving profitability.

Bright outlook for GPU projects as well as ASIC projects. We believe Jentech has a more promising product roadmap for ASIC clients, with potential ASP upgrades from the current stiffener. After GPU clients adopt removable lids, it also could encourage its ASIC clients to adopt removable lids, translating to 15-20x ASP increase from here. We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 6-15%, mainly as a result of our more aggressive revenue and gross-/operating-margin assumptions.

What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD9,420 (from TWD6,770), still based on a target PER of 73x (vs. its past-3-year PER range of 17-62x) applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast, which is rolled over to 4Q26E-3Q27E (from 3Q26E-2Q27E). We believe our target valuation is fair, given Jentech's strong earnings visibility and leading position in chip-level thermal solutions, which we believe warrant a rerating in addition to its strong moat and competitive landscape in the segment. Downside risks: weaker-than-expected global AI server demand and slower-than-expected thermal spec upgrades.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 1-10% above Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more aggressive in our revenue and gross/operating-margin assumptions.

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(unchanged)

Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254 helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 2.5 7.0 7.8
Net profit change 5.8 14.0 14.6
Core EPS (FD) change 5.9 14.0 14.6

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 2,020.00-5,990.00
Market cap (USDbn) 25.43
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 193.79
Shares outstanding (m) 147
Major shareholder Chao family (40.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 32,852 60,276 86,449
Operating profit (m) 12,221 28,511 43,138
Net profit (m) 10,023 22,972 34,696
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 68.236 156.399 236.217
EPS change (%) 88.8 129.2 51.0
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 1.3 9.8 1.2
PER (x) 81.0 35.3 23.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.7 2.6
DPS 41.0 93.9 141.9
PBR (x) 26.6 17.1 11.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 61.1 27.1 17.8
ROE (%) 37.6 59.0 59.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: revenue and earnings forecasts revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - New 2026E - Previous 2026E - Change 2027E - New 2027E - Previous 2027E - Change 2028E - New 2028E - Previous 2028E - Change
Sales 32,852 32,045 2.5% 60,276 56,314 7.0% 86,449 80,180 7.8%
Gross profit 15,933 15,157 5.1% 31,946 28,157 13.5% 47,547 41,694 14.0%
Gross margin 48.5% 47.3% 1.2pp 53.0% 50.0% 3pp 55.0% 52.0% 3pp
Operating profit 12,221 11,536 5.9% 28,511 25,003 14.0% 43,138 37,685 14.5%
Operating margin 37.2% 36.0% 1.2pp 47.3% 44.4% 2.9pp 49.9% 47.0% 2.9pp
Net profit 10,023 9,473 5.8% 22,972 20,153 14.0% 34,696 30,280 14.6%
Net margin 30.5% 29.6% 0.9pp 38.1% 35.8% 2.3pp 40.1% 37.8% 2.4pp
Fully Diluted EPS (TWD) 68.24 64.46 5.9% 156.40 137.15 14.0% 236.22 206.07 14.6%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: quarterly and annual P&L

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q26 2026E - 2Q26 2026E - 3Q26E 2026E - 4Q26E 2027E - 1Q27E 2027E - 2Q27E 2027E - 3Q27E 2027E - 4Q27E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 5,305 7,275 9,650 10,623 11,109 13,361 16,161 19,646 32,852 60,276 86,449
Gross profit 2,217 3,405 4,873 5,439 5,721 6,948 8,646 10,632 15,933 31,946 47,547
Operating profit 1,697 2,749 3,127 4,649 4,943 6,119 7,822 9,626 12,221 28,511 43,138
Pre-tax profit 1,776 2,841 3,214 4,686 4,973 6,149 7,852 9,656 12,516 28,631 43,238
Net profit 1,398 2,318 2,593 3,713 3,987 4,932 6,301 7,751 10,023 22,972 34,696
Basic EPS (TWD) 9.53 15.80 17.67 25.31 27.17 33.62 42.94 52.82 68.24 156.40 236.22
Margin
Gross margin 41.8% 46.8% 50.5% 51.2% 51.5% 52.0% 53.5% 54.1% 48.5% 53.0% 55.0%
Operating margin 32.0% 37.8% 32.4% 43.8% 44.5% 45.8% 48.4% 49.0% 37.2% 47.3% 49.9%
Pre-tax margin 33.5% 39.1% 33.3% 44.1% 44.8% 46.0% 48.6% 49.2% 38.1% 47.5% 50.0%
Net margin 26.4% 31.9% 26.9% 35.0% 35.9% 36.9% 39.0% 39.5% 30.5% 38.1% 40.1%
YoY
Revenue 11.6% 40.4% 90.4% 101.5% 109.4% 83.7% 67.5% 84.9% 62.0% 83.5% 43.4%
Gross profit 3.8% 58.4% 146.7% 150.1% 158.1% 104.0% 77.4% 95.5% 88.9% 100.5% 48.8%
Operating profit 1.8% 61.8% 110.6% 182.0% 191.4% 122.6% 150.2% 107.1% 88.1% 133.3% 51.3%
Pre-tax profit 2.0% 114.1% 86.6% 157.9% 180.1% 116.5% 144.3% 106.1% 89.4% 128.8% 51.0%
Net profit 2.0% 106.8% 91.2% 159.9% 185.2% 112.7% 143.0% 108.7% 89.9% 129.2% 51.0%
QoQ
Revenue 0.6% 37.1% 32.7% 10.1% 4.6% 20.3% 21.0% 21.6%
Gross profit 1.9% 53.6% 43.1% 11.6% 5.2% 21.4% 24.4% 23.0%
Operating profit 2.9% 62.0% 13.7% 48.7% 6.3% 23.8% 27.8% 23.1%
Pre-tax profit -2.3% 60.0% 13.1% 45.8% 6.1% 23.6% 27.7% 23.0%
Net profit -2.2% 65.8% 11.8% 43.2% 7.4% 23.7% 27.7% 23.0%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal heat spreader revenue growth (%) 10.4 73.8 21.2 25.7 58.2 69.6 100.0 49.4
Lead frame revenue growth (%) 51.0 2.3 (13.1) (5.8) (4.1) 48.9 30.2 0.0
Electronic Components revenue growth (%) 41.4 4.7 (43.5) 3.5 15.9 17.9 23.2 21.6

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal heat spreader 3,533 6,139 7,444 9,358 14,804 25,106 50,219 75,004
Lead frame 2,326 2,380 2,068 1,948 1,868 2,780 3,620 3,620
Other Revenue 2,942 3,513 2,551 2,972 3,604 4,965 6,438 7,825
Total Revenue 8,801 12,032 12,063 14,278 20,276 32,852 60,276 86,449
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (6,043) (7,706) (8,020) (8,913) (11,842) (16,919) (28,330) (38,902)
SG&A (658) (838) (838) (969) (1,196) (2,727) (2,230) (2,680)
Other op.expenses (390) (454) (527) (598) (740) (986) (1,206) (1,729)
Operating profit 1,710 3,034 2,677 3,799 6,498 12,221 28,511 43,138
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (25) (16) 83 83 54 135 70 50
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (93) 351 25 364 54 160 50 50
Pre-tax profit 1,592 3,369 2,786 4,245 6,607 12,516 28,631 43,238
Tax (354) (712) (534) (830) (1,297) (2,456) (5,619) (8,485)
Min. int./pref. div./others (42) (42) 46 13 (33) (37) (40) (57)
Net profit (reported) 1,196 2,614 2,298 3,428 5,277 10,023 22,972 34,696
Net profit (adjusted) 1,196 2,614 2,298 3,428 5,277 10,023 22,972 34,696
EPS (reported)(TWD) 9.884 19.536 16.594 24.149 36.753 68.309 156.556 236.454
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 9.884 19.536 16.594 24.149 36.753 68.309 156.556 236.454
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 9.407 18.643 16.280 24.074 36.140 68.236 156.399 236.217
DPS (TWD) 6.000 11.660 9.850 14.500 22.000 40.986 93.933 141.872
EBIT 1,710 3,034 2,677 3,799 6,498 12,221 28,511 43,138
EBITDA 2,047 3,855 3,238 4,759 7,201 13,084 29,287 43,998

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,592 3,369 2,786 4,245 6,607 12,516 28,631 43,238
Depreciation and amortisation 430 469 536 597 648 703 726 810
Tax paid (230) (313) (848) (563) (887) (2,456) (5,619) (8,485)
Change in working capital (952) (840) 662 (1,211) (1,348) (4,490) (9,077) (9,086)
Other operational CF items 65 110 (78) (177) (246) (135) (70) (50)
Cash flow from operations 905 2,795 3,057 2,891 4,774 6,137 14,591 26,427
Capex (684) (805) (453) (613) (1,173) (1,200) (1,200) (1,500)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (653) (21) 270 179 146 131 131 131
Other investing CF items (15) (279) (103) (2,129) 13 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (1,352) (1,105) (287) (2,563) (1,014) (1,069) (1,069) (1,369)
Change in debt 770 (246) (222) (744) 5,197 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (733) (785) (1,662) (1,436) (2,072) (3,187) (6,014) (13,783)
Other financing CF items (14) (19) (33) (35) (48) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 22 (1,050) (1,917) (2,215) 3,077 (3,187) (6,014) (13,783)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash (425) 640 853 (1,887) 6,837 1,881 7,508 11,275
Free cash flow 221 1,897 2,597 2,371 3,791 4,937 13,391 24,927

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 2,648 3,317 4,156 2,267 9,134 11,015 18,523 29,798
Inventory 3,359 3,596 2,481 3,062 3,810 5,673 9,144 12,668
Accounts receivable 2,373 2,730 2,713 4,115 5,538 9,058 16,356 23,646
Other current assets 70 43 62 51 85 85 85 85
Total current assets 8,450 9,686 9,411 9,495 18,567 25,830 44,108 66,197
Fixed assets 4,436 4,675 4,833 4,852 8,073 8,570 9,044 9,733
Goodwill & intangibles 12 10 13 12 14 14 14 14
Other non-current assets 623 1,407 1,588 4,104 1,315 1,315 1,315 1,315
Total assets 13,521 15,777 15,846 18,462 27,969 35,729 54,481 77,260
Short-term debt 773 1,743 397 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 1,882 2,176 2,052 2,790 3,521 4,469 6,217 8,001
Other current liabilities 224 619 335 630 932 99 99 99
Total current liabilities 2,878 4,537 2,785 3,420 4,453 4,568 6,316 8,100
Long-term debt 437 432 348 5 5 5 5 5
Other non-current liabilities 2,194 350 375 379 445 445 445 445
Total liabilities 5,509 5,319 3,507 3,804 4,904 5,018 6,766 8,550
Share capital 1,223 1,368 1,408 1,429 1,467 1,467 1,467 1,467
Reserves/R.E./others 5,854 8,152 10,070 13,037 21,370 28,980 45,943 66,881
Shareholders' equity 7,078 9,520 11,478 14,466 22,837 30,447 47,411 68,348
Minority interests 934 938 860 192 227 264 304 361
Total equity & liabilities 13,521 15,777 15,846 18,462 27,969 35,729 54,481 77,260
EV 810,196 810,495 808,150 808,629 801,799 799,954 792,486 781,268
Net debt/(cash) (1,438) (1,143) (3,411) (2,262) (9,129) (11,010) (18,518) (29,793)
BVPS (TWD) 58.480 71.142 82.877 101.919 159.052 207.500 323.107 465.801

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 28.6 36.7 0.3 18.4 42.0 62.0 83.5 43.4
EBITDA (YoY) 30.6 88.3 (16.0) 47.0 51.3 81.7 123.8 50.2
Operating profit (YoY) 52.8 77.4 (11.8) 41.9 71.1 88.1 133.3 51.3
Net profit (YoY) 19.6 118.6 (12.1) 49.2 54.0 89.9 129.2 51.0
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 14.3 98.2 (12.7) 47.9 50.1 88.8 129.2 51.0
Gross-profit margin 31.3 36.0 33.5 37.6 41.6 48.5 53.0 55.0
EBITDA margin 23.3 32.0 26.8 33.3 35.5 39.8 48.6 50.9
Operating-profit margin 19.4 25.2 22.2 26.6 32.0 37.2 47.3 49.9
Net profit margin 13.6 21.7 19.1 24.0 26.0 30.5 38.1 40.1
ROAE 17.7 31.5 21.9 26.4 28.3 37.6 59.0 59.9
ROAA 9.6 17.8 14.5 20.0 22.7 31.5 50.9 52.7
ROCE 20.1 27.8 20.8 27.4 34.4 45.4 72.7 74.1
ROIC 23.6 30.1 23.7 28.7 39.7 58.4 93.7 n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 22.2 21.1 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6
Accounts receivable (days) 87.2 77.4 82.4 87.3 86.9 81.1 76.9 84.4
Current ratio (x) 2.9 2.1 3.4 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.0 8.2
Net interest cover (x) 67.9 183.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 60.7 59.7 59.4 60.0 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.0
Free cash flow yield 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.7 3.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in 1987, Jentech Precision Industrial is a leading global thermal-solutions and precisionmetal components maker that serves leading semiconductor and server vendors. As of 2025, its revenue comprised thermal heat spreaders (73%), lead frames (9%), electronic components (7%), communication connectors (1%) and others (10%).

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 1 The CEO and chairperson of Jentech is the same individual, Mr. Zhao Zongxin. We note that Mr. Zhao has extensive long-term experience in senior management within the company and across its subsidiaries, which is a positive sign from an executive perspective.
G Capital management 1 Between 2021-25, Jentech has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 60%, which we consider reasonable for balancing shareholder returns with reinvestment needs. This consistent approach reflects prudent capital management discipline and a stable financial policy.
Related party & transaction 1 The company engages in transactions with subsidiaries primarily for normal operational purposes, such as purchase of materials and components. The proportion of these costs to overall COGS remains low, and no irregular or non-transparent transactions were identified.
E Supplychain management 1 Jentech has a structured procurement process, including supplier evaluation, signature of procurement contracts, and requirements for compliance with environmental and safety regulations. The company also diversifies sourcing channels (major suppliers from Taiwan, Japan, Europe, Korea, USA) and maintains stable supply relationships, with clear communication protocols for prompt response to supplier issues. This reflects strong supply chain transparency and robust quality control measures.
E Datasecurity 1 The company has established an information security team, conducts annual internal control audits, and implements procedures such as asset inventory, network security monitoring, virus prevention systems, firewall management, and access rights control. Backup systems and disaster recovery mechanisms are in place, allowing the company to restore information system operations and minimize damage during major incidents or equipment failures.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company