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報告_Citi_緯穎6669_20261019

更新 2026-10-20

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檔名 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Citi_緯穎6669_20261019_001.png 裝飾·logo·banner(<40KB 小圖,仍檢視) 緯穎股價折線圖,Y 軸 TWD 1,000–2,500,X 軸約 2025-12 至 2026-09,末段自高點回落
報告_Citi_緯穎6669_20261019_002.png 真資料圖 Citi Bull/Bear 圖:Bull NT$3,400(+80%)、Base NT$3,200(+70%)、Bear NT$1,800(-4.5%);現價 NT$1,885(2026-10-19);Bull 目標 PE 17x、Base 銷售 2026/27E +59%/+80% 且 OPM 6.7%/5.7%、目標 PE 16x、Bear 目標 PE 9x
報告_Citi_緯穎6669_20261019_003.png 真資料圖 Citi 評等與目標價歷史(Fundamental Research,分析師 Jack Chen):12 筆,最近 2026-07-28 TP 3,184.93、收盤 1,781.89;下半為 Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch 歷史

原始內容

Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] citi

19 Oct 2026 10:31:03 ET │ 14 pages

Wiwynn (6669.TW)

More AI demand to kick in

CITI'S TAKE

For Wiwynn, while there are lots of concerns over component constraints or disruption in its AI demand, we remain constructive on Wiwynn's upcoming AI projects (eg, AMD Helios), which would kick in from 4Q26 onward. We believe those concerns/negatives were in the price already. We expect these AI demands would continuously aggregate, resulting in QoQ sales growth in 4Q26E and potential upside to 1Q27E outlook. We lift our TP to NT$3,200 (16x 2027 EPS vs previous 18x 2027E) with lower PE multiple to factor in the market's recent AI concerns amid rate hike backdrop.

3Q26 preview - Wiwynn's 3Q26 sales are expected to grow 56% QoQ, ahead of market's expectation, supported by stronger-than-expected regular server demand (despite component shortage) and ramp up of AI ASIC server. We estimate c.50%/c.50% sales mix between regular/AI ASIC server in 3Q26E. For GM, considering some negative impact from rising memory costs (on some regular server and AI ASIC server), we forecast 3Q26E GM to slightly decrease 0.6ppt QoQ to c.8.7%. Overall, our 3Q26E earnings are 9% higher than the consensus forecast.

4Q26: some projects to kick in - We currently forecast 20% QoQ growth in 4Q26E sales. Given the component shortage, we think QoQ growth in regular server would still be slightly constrained, while we see AI ASIC server would see less supply disruption, serving as the key driver in 4Q26E. Meanwhile, we forecast mild rampup in both AMD Helios and VR200 (to Oracle) from 4Q26E onward. We currently forecast 4Q26E GM to slightly decrease 0.1ppt QoQ to c.8.5%.

2027: momentum gaining more traction - We see AI ASIC server demand to sustain into 2027E with higher content value from liquid cooling design. We forecast +13% unit shipments YoY growth in regular server next year, given the supply constraint. For Wiwynn's AI GPU orders, we currently are more comfortable with AMD's Helios demand (Citi forecast: 5k racks) than Oracle demand (Citi forecast: <500 racks) in 2027E, given the market's concerns over Oracle's development in AI. For other AI ASIC projects, we think they might be potential upside to 2H27/2028E.

Earnings upward revisions; Buy - We raise our 2026/27/28E earnings to factor in higher AI demand with momentum ramping up from 4Q26 onward. Meanwhile, we adjust our share count after the share dividend. We lift our TP to NT$3,200 (16x 2027 EPS) from NT$3,184 (18x 2027E EPS) with lower PE multiple to factor in the market's recent concerns over the sustainability of CSPs' capex amid rate hike backdrop.

Earnings Summary

Year to 31 Dec Net Profit (NT$M) Diluted EPS (NT$) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%)
2024A 22,776 124.46 81.2 15.1 4.1 34.9 2.1
2025A 51,118 265.14 113.0 7.1 2.9 48.0 3.9
2026E 75,960 231.33 -12.8 8.1 6.0 49.2 2.5
2027E 114,959 197.75 -14.5 9.5 3.7 47.6 3.8
2028E 141,691 243.74 23.3 7.7 2.5 38.3 5.7

Source: Powered by dataCentral

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

n Buy

Price (19 Oct 26 13:30)

NT$1,885.00

Target price NT$3,200.00↑

from NT$3,184.93

Expected share price return

69.8%

Expected dividend yield

3.8%

Expected total return

73.6%

Market Cap NT$1,053,715M US$32,478M

Price Performance (RIC: 6669.TW, BB: 6669 TT)

Jack Chen AC

+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Profit & Loss (NT$m) 6669.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Price: - Valuation ratios NT$1,885.00; TP: NT$3,200.00; Market Cap: NT$1,053,715m; Recomm: Buy - 2024 NT$1,885.00; TP: NT$3,200.00; Market Cap: NT$1,053,715m; Recomm: Buy - 2025 NT$1,885.00; TP: NT$3,200.00; Market Cap: NT$1,053,715m; Recomm: Buy - 2026E NT$1,885.00; TP: NT$3,200.00; Market Cap: NT$1,053,715m; Recomm: Buy - 2027E NT$1,885.00; TP: NT$3,200.00; Market Cap: NT$1,053,715m; Recomm: Buy - 2028E
Sales revenue 360,541 950,663 1,510,447 2,714,702 3,751,101 PE (x) 15.1 7.1 8.1 9.5 7.7
Cost of sales -323,141 -872,209 -1,381,635 -2,508,904 -3,495,080 PB (x) 4.1 2.9 6.0 3.7 2.5
Gross profit 37,400 78,454 128,811 205,798 256,021 EV/EBITDA (x) 34.2 15.7 10.6 6.9 5.2
Gross Margin (%) 10.4 8.3 8.5 7.6 6.8 FCF yield (%) -7.2 -3.9 -13.8 6.2 8.9
EBITDA (Adj) 30,103 66,608 105,214 163,408 201,636 Dividend yield (%) 2.1 3.9 2.5 3.8 5.7
EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) 8.3 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.4 Payout ratio (%) 32 28 21 36 44
Depreciation -1,828 -2,442 -4,427 -9,996 -14,253 ROE (%) 34.9 48.0 49.2 47.6 38.3
Amortisation -176 -248 0 0 0 Cashflow (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 28,099 63,918 100,787 153,411 187,383 EBITDA 30,103 66,608 105,214 163,408 201,636
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 7.8 6.7 6.7 5.7 5.0 Working capital -44,774 -54,433 -129,781 -31,290 -32,798
Net interest -23 -2,113 -5,693 -6,200 -5,900 Other -5,323 -12,799 -24,827 -38,452 -45,692
Associates 22 266 1,649 -28 -28 Operating cashflow -19,993 -624 -49,394 93,666 123,146
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 733 3,981 263 200 200 Capex -4,891 -13,674 -35,852 -25,200 -25,200
Pre-tax profit 28,830 66,052 97,005 147,383 181,655 Net acq/disposals -1,256 -2,319 -4,301 0 0
Tax -6,054 -14,934 -21,046 -32,424 -39,964 Other 492 2,227 0 0 0
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. 0 0 0 0 0 Investing cashflow -5,655 -13,766 -40,152 -25,200 -25,200
Reported net profit 22,776 51,118 75,960 114,959 141,691 Dividends paid -7,343 -13,752 -26,834 -39,874 -60,346
Net Margin (%) 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.2 3.8 Financing cashflow 36,316 56,188 55,276 5,360 5,043
Core NPAT 22,776 51,118 75,960 114,959 141,691 Net change in cash 10,834 41,605 -34,271 73,825 102,989
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders -24,884 -14,299 -85,246 68,466 97,946
Reported EPS ($) 124.46 265.14 231.33 197.75 243.74
Core EPS ($) 124.46 265.14 231.33 197.75 243.74
DPS ($) 39.51 74.00 48.04 71.39 108.04
CFPS ($) -109.26 -3.24 -150.43 161.12 211.84
FCFPS -135.98 -74.17 -259.61 117.77 168.49
($) BVPS ($) 462.18 646.40 316.75 514.51 758.24
Wtd avg ord shares (m) 178 186 311 560 560
Wtd avg diluted shares (m) 183 193 328 581 581
Growth rates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 49.0 163.7 58.9 79.7 38.2
EBIT (Adj) (%) 77.1 127.5 57.7 52.2 22.1
Core NPAT (%) 89.1 124.4 48.6 51.3 23.3
Core EPS (%) 81.2 113.0 -12.8 -14.5 23.3
Balance Sheet (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & cash equiv. 48,329 89,934 55,663 129,488 232,477
Accounts receivables 37,649 76,888 137,451 162,652 189,298
Inventory 86,211 136,257 321,149 373,800 430,517
Net fixed & other 16,112 29,606 61,921 77,124 88,071
tangibles Goodwill & intangibles 174 229 488 488 488
Financial & other assets 2,203 5,274 182,063 202,622 224,361
Total assets 190,679 338,189 758,734 946,174 1,165,212
Accounts payable 53,585 79,366 261,163 309,764 362,118
Short-term debt 6,125 72,197 136,270 136,270 136,270
Long-term debt 22,004 27,985 35,310 40,669 45,712
Provisions & other liab 20,762 33,989 213,537 141,852 160,373 180,324
Total liabilities 102,476 574,595 647,077 724,424
Shareholders' equity Minority interests 88,203 0 124,653 184,139 299,098 440,788 0
0 0 0
Total equity 88,203 124,653 10,248 184,139 115,917 299,098 47,451 440,788 -50,495
Net debt (Adj) -20,200
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) For definitions of the items in this table, -22.9 please click here. 8.2 63.0 15.9 -11.5

Figure 2. Wiwynn - Earnings Revisions

(NT$mn) 3Q26E - New 3Q26E - Old 3Q26E - Chg. 4Q26E - New 4Q26E - Old 4Q26E - Chg. 2026E - New 2026E - Old 2026E - Chg. 2027E - New 2027E - Old 2027E - Chg. 2028E - New 2028E - Old 2028E - Chg.
Sales 434,618 363,350 20% 521,168 416,705 25% 1,510,447 1,334,716 13% 2,714,7022,204,264 23% 3,751,1012,620,258 43%
Sequential growth (%) 56% 31% 20% 15% 59% 40% 80% 65% 38% 19%
Gross profit 37,715 30,331 24% 44,452 32,787 36% 128,811 107,130 20%205,798 171,618 20%256,021 195,521 31%
Opex 8,665 5,141 69% 10,391 5,626 85% 28,025 18,640 50% 52,387 30,625 71% 68,638 33,861 103%
Operating profit 29,050 25,190 15% 34,060 27,161 25% 100,787 88,489 14% 153,411 140,993 9% 187,383 161,659 16%
Pre-tax profit 27,543 25,078 10% 32,554 26,946 21% 97,005 88,447 10% 147,383 140,087 5% 181,655 160,728 13%
Net income 21,484 19,561 10% 25,392 21,287 19% 75,960 68,644 11% 114,959 108,666 6% 141,691 124,642 14%
EPS (NT$) 64.72 35.29 83% 43.68 38.40 14% 231.33 123.83 87% 197.75 178.21 11% 243.74 204.41 19%
Gross margin (%) 8.7% 8.3% +0.3 ppt 8.5% 7.9% +0.7 ppt 8.5% 8.0% +0.5 ppt 7.6% 7.8% -0.2 ppt 6.8% 7.5% -0.6 ppt
Opex ratio (%) 2.0% 1.4% +0.6 ppt 2.0% 1.4% +0.6 ppt 1.9% 1.4% +0.5 ppt 1.9% 1.4% +0.5 ppt 1.8% 1.3% +0.5 ppt
Operating margin (%) 6.7% 6.9% -0.2 ppt 6.5% 6.5% +0.0 ppt 6.7% 6.6% +0.0 ppt 5.7% 6.4% -0.7 ppt 5.0% 6.2% -1.2 ppt
Net margin (%) 4.9% 5.4% -0.4 ppt 4.9% 5.1% -0.2 ppt 5.0% 5.1% -0.1 ppt 4.2% 4.9% -0.7 ppt 3.8% 4.8% -1.0 ppt

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates

Figure 1. Wiwynn - 3Q26 Results Preview

(NT$mn) 3Q26 Citi 2Q26 Actual Q/Q 3Q25 Actual Y/Y 3Q26 Cons. Diff.
Revenue 434,618 278,153 56% 266,824 63% 389,603 12%
Gross profit 37,715 25,763 46% 23,532 60% 32,458 16%
Gross margin 8.7% 9.3% -0.6 ppt 8.8% -0.1 ppt 8.3% +0.3 ppt
Op. profit 29,050 20,218 44% 19,572 48% 25,819 13%
OP margin 6.7% 7.3% -0.6 ppt 7.3% -0.7 ppt 6.6% +0.1 ppt
Net income 21,484 14,969 44% 15,411 39% 19,737 9%
EPS (NT$) 64.72 72.23 -10% 79.91 -19% 35.04 85%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg, Company reports Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Figure 3. Wiwynn - Forecast Summary

NT$mn 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net sales 276,508 278,153 434,618 521,168 621,358 650,129 715,461 727,754 163,600 186,928 192,626 292,876 241,901 360,541 950,663 1,510,447 2,714,702 3,751,101
Gross profit 20 , 881 25, 763 37 , 7 15 44,452 45, 7 18 48, 595 55, 128 56, 357 1 1 , 349 15,301 15,621 23,979 22,657 37 , 400 78,454 128, 81 1 205,798 256,021
OPEX 3,423 5,545 8,665 10,391 11,990 12,546 13,807 14,044 3,188 4,059 4,234 6,145 6,787 9,301 14,537 28,025 52,387 68,638
Operating profit 1 7 , 458 20,218 29,050 34,060 33,727 36,049 41 , 321 42,313 8, 160 1 1 , 242 1 1 , 387 1 7 , 834 15, 87 1 28,099 63,918 100,787 153,411 187 , 383
Total Non-OP 476 (1,244) (1,507) (1,506) (1,508) (1,507) (1,507) (1,506) (402) (354) (391) 63 (427) 731 2,135 (3,781) (6,028) (5,728)
Pre-tax profit 17,934 18,974 27,543 32,554 32,219 34,542 39,814 40,807 7,758 10,887 10,996 17,897 15,444 28,830 66,052 97,005 147,383 181,655
Income tax 3,820 4,005 6,059 7,162 7,088 7,599 8,759 8,978 1,589 2,278 2,348 3,723 3,400 6,054 14,934 21,046 32,424 39,964
tax rate 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 21% 23% 22% 22% 22%
Net profit 14, 114 14,969 21 , 484 25,392 25, 131 26, 943 31 , 055 31 , 830 6, 169 8,610 8, 648 14, 175 12,044 22,776 51 , 1 18 75,960 1 14, 959 141 , 691
EPS (NT$) 73. 16 7 2. 23 64. 7 2 43. 68 43. 23 46. 35 53. 42 54. 75 36. 3 49. 1 49. 3 80 . 8 68. 7 124. 5 265. 1 231 . 3 197 . 8 243. 7
Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%) Margins (%)
Gross profit 7 .6 9. 3 8. 7 8. 5 7 .4 7 .5 7 . 7 7 . 7 6. 9 8. 2 8. 1 8. 2 9. 4 10.4 8. 3 8. 5 7 .6 6. 8
OPEX to Sales Ratio 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8
Operating profit 6. 3 7 .3 6. 7 6. 5 5. 4 5. 5 5. 8 5. 8 5.0 6. 0 5. 9 6. 1 6. 6 7 .8 6. 7 6. 7 5. 7 5.0
Pre-tax profit 6.5 6.8 6.3 6.2 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.6 4.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.4 8.0 6.9 6.4 5.4 4.8
Net profit 5. 1 5. 4 4.9 4.9 4.0 4. 1 4.3 4.4 3.8 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 6. 3 5. 4 5.0 4.2 3.8
Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%) Y/Y(%)
Net sales 62.0 26.0 62.9 78.2 124.7 133.7 64.6 39.6 (9.6) 14.3 3.0 52.0 (17.4) 49.0 163.7 58.9 79.7 38.2
Gross profit 40.6 36.0 60.3 110.4 118.9 88.6 46.2 26.8 6.6 34.8 2.1 53.5 (5.5) 65.1 109.8 64.2 59.8 24.4
OPEX 19.3 82.2 118.8 122.8 250.3 126.2 59.3 35.1 (10.1) 27.3 4.3 45.1 10.4 37.1 56.3 92.8 86.9 31.0
Operating profit 45.7 27.2 48.4 106.9 93.2 78.3 42.2 24.2 14.9 37.8 1.3 56.6 (11.0) 77.1 127.5 57.7 52.2 22.1
Pre-tax profit 43.2 20.7 35.3 86.5 79.7 82.1 44.6 25.4 9.4 40.3 1.0 62.8 (13.7) 86.7 129.1 46.9 51.9 23.3
Net profit 44.1 23.5 39.4 84.1 78.1 80.0 44.6 25.4 10.6 39.6 0.4 63.9 (15.0) 89.1 124.4 48.6 51.3 23.3
Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%) Q/Q(%)
Net sales (5.4) 0.6 56.3 19.9 19.2 4.6 10.0 1.7
Gross profit (1.2) 23.4 46.4 17.9 2.8 6.3 13.4 2.2
Operating profit 6.0 15.8 43.7 17.2 (1.0) 6.9 14.6 2.4
Pre-tax profit 2.7 5.8 45.2 18.2 (1.0) 7.2 15.3 2.5
Net profit 2.3 6.1 43.5 18.2 (1.0) 7.2 15.3 2.5

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Bull/Bear: Wiwynn (6669.TW)

Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Wiwynn

Company description

Established in April 2012 and listed in March 2019, Wiwynn is one of the leading cloud infrastructure providers focusing on servers, storage, and rack solutions for global CSPs' data centers. Key customers include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon, which together accounted for >90% of sales with tier-2 CSPs accounting for single-digit percentage of sales. Wiwynn used to be running at an asset-light business model but has expanded capacity for server motherboard manufacturing and rack final assembly on its own in recent years, increasing in-house supply ratio.

Investment strategy

We rate Wiwynn as Buy. We expect the secular growth in global data center and cloud-based IP traffic to act as a key driver for Wiwynn in years to come. We expect Wiwynn to benefit from data center growth amid rising ODM Direct/white-box server adoption. With order momentum having started to recover since 4Q23, we see Wiwynn's growth being backed by continuous rollouts of data centers from existing customers and new project wins from Amazon.

Valuation

Our target price for Wiwynn is NT$3,200. We value Wiwynn based on PE as we believe the company's earnings performance and industry dynamics will be the key focus areas for the market. Our TP is based on 16x 2027E EPS, which is at the top end of the historical trading range since listing and above the average PE multiple of the peer group. We believe our target multiple is justified by the company's 100% exposure to data centers, rising scale, and robust earnings growth, as well as stabilizing ROE.

Risks

Key downside risks that could cause Wiwynn's shares to trade below our target price include: 1) Potential volatility in capex deployment; 2) Component price hike; 3) Peer competition; and 4) FX volatility.

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Appendix A-1