PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_欣興3037_20260903_original.pdf
原始內容
citivelocity.com
03 Sep 2026 09:51:31 ET │ 10 pages
Unimicron (3037.TW)
Citi Taiwan Semicon Tour: Limited impact from the investigation
CITI'S TAKE
In its first commentary since the investigation began, Unimicron provided additional color about the situation. Amid tight PCB supply, the company's regional production sites have been mutually supporting each other during urgent periods (e.g., shipping semi-finished products from China to Taiwan for final processing). A specific PCB facility in Taiwan is currently under investigation for potential product origin mislabeling. While management declined to comment on specific details, they believe the financial impact will be limited, adding that given current supply constraints, customers remain focused on shipment volumes rather than product origin. Furthermore, because the most advanced ABF substrate capacity, which produces AI-related chips, is all based in Taiwan, while the China capacity serves domestic demand, the company expects its ABF business to remain unaffected by the issue.
In our view, if the scope of the investigation remains confined to this specific PCB facility, any negative impact should be short-term, and that the company's longterm sales and gross margin will continue to be driven by an enhanced product mix, improving yields, and the industry-wide shortage of ABF and HDI substrates. Notably, its new HDI capacity in Taiwan ramped up in 2Q26, which we believe will mitigate similar operational risks going forward. Aside from the investigation, management's commentary on ABF supply/demand dynamics, EMIB-T, and longterm trends remains consistent with guidance from the late-July earnings call. Overall, while the stock price is likely to face near-term pressure due to the investigation overhang, we would view any share price weakness as a buying opportunity. Reiterate Buy.
Buy
Price (03 Sep 26 13:30)
NT$923.00 NT$1,500.00
Target price
Expected share price return
62.5%
Expected dividend yield
1.1% 63.6% NT$1,514,912M US$47,708M
Expected total return Market Cap
Jack Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090
laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai
+886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
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Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Unimicron
Valuation
Our target price for Unimicron is NT$1,500. We use a 1-year forward-looking DCF-based valuation (ie, end-2027) to reflect Unimicron's ability to generate stable cash. With a risk-free rate of 4.3% (10-year government bond rate), a market risk premium of 7%, and an equity beta of 1.43 (2-year weekly share price), we calculate Unimicron's WACC as 13.7%. Our target price is equivalent to 66x/31x 2026/27E EPS, which is higher than the +1std level of consensus PE multiple of the past five years. However, as the market focuses on 2027 upcycle, we believe valuation on 2027E EPS is still in line with historical peak valuations of 25-30x during the last upcycles.
Risks
Key downside risks that could mean Unimicron shares trade below our target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected HDI business; 2) significant increase in ABF supply in the industry; and 3) stronger-than-expected margin pressure from depreciation due to higher capex investments.
Unimicron (3037.TW)
Analyst: Jack Chen
TWD
1,000
500
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2024
2025
Date
[7 20-Jan-26 10:55:31
10/ 28-Apr-26 12:07:06
11/ 30-Jun-26 10:10:46
2026
Closing Price
308.00|
825.00
1,070.00
Date
Appendix A-1
[2 26 - Feb-24 10:21:09
1
*247.44
194.00
- 22-Apr-25 12:10:54