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228KB | 真資料圖（財務類，不嵌公司頁） | Citi NYPCB（8046.TW）評等與目標價沿革圖（分析師 Jack Chen）：上圖股價線＋評等／TP 表（最近三筆 2026-06-30 TP 1,550、2026-08-06 TP 1,600、2026-09-30 TP 1,700）；下圖 Catalyst Watch 沿革（2026-09-30 加 90 天上檔 CW、2026-11-03 移除 CW，收盤價 1,070） |
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原始內容
[讀者資訊已遮蔽] citi
05 Nov 2026 09:04:29 ET │ 11 pages
NYPCB (8046.TW)
3Q26 results in line; demand remains intact; Buy
CITI'S TAKE
With strong ABF and BT growth, 3Q26 results came roughly in line with our expectation, as we previewed. Currently, we forecast +13% QoQ growth in 4Q26E sales driven majorly by ABF/PCB. Considering 800G/1.6T switch, server CPU and ASIC demand to ramp, we remain optimistic about its ABF momentum in the upcoming quarters. Although the market now is likely concerned with potentially lower demand due to postponed build-up of AI datacenters, we think 1) slow YoY increase in ABF capacity industrywide, 2) raw material constraints and 3) AI chip spec migration could still be able more than offset the negative impact from decreasing unit shipments of chip, if any, still leading to undersupply in ABF sector in 2027E/28E. We reiterate our Buy rating on NYPCB.
Flash | Research
Buy
| Price (05 Nov 26 13:30) | NT$972.00 |
|---|---|
| Target price | NT$1,700.00 |
| Expected share price return | 74.9% |
| Expected dividend yield | 1.1% |
| Expected total return | 76.0% |
| Market Cap | NT$628,073M |
| US$19,111M |
Jack Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations [讀者資訊已遮蔽] Source: Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Figure 1. NYPCB's 3Q26 results
| (NT$mn) | 3Q26 Actual | 3Q25 Actual | 2Q26 Actual | YoY | QoQ | 3Q26 | 3Q26 diff Consensus | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,378 | 10,967 | 13,575 | 49% | 21% | 16,131 | 2% | 16,345 | 0% |
| Gross profit | 4,801 | 1,050 | 3,360 | 357% | 43% | 4,776 | 1% | 4,899 | -2% |
| OP profit | 4,323 | 620 | 2,899 | 597% | 49% | 4,196 | 3% | 4,330 | 0% |
| Non-op | 131 | 287 | 76 | 105 | 218 | ||||
| PBT | 4,454 | 907 | 2,976 | 391% | 50% | 4,301 | 4% | 4,548 | -2% |
| Tax | (1,156) | (182) | (714) | (860) | na | ||||
| Minority | na | ||||||||
| Net Income | 3,298 | 725 | 2,262 | 355% | 46% | 3,440 | -4% | 3,623 | -9% |
| EPS) (T) | 5.10 | 1.12 | 3.50 | 355% | 46% | 5.32 | -4% | 5.61 | -9% |
| GM | 29.3% | 9.6% | 24.7% | 19.7 ppt | 4.6 ppt | 29.6% | -0.3 ppt | 30.0% | -0.7 ppt |
| OPEX ratio | -2.9% | -3.9% | -3.4% | 1.0 ppt | 0.5 ppt | -3.6% | 0.7 ppt | -3.5% | 0.6 ppt |
| OPM | 26.4% | 5.7% | 21.4% | 20.7 ppt | 5.0 ppt | 26.0% | 0.4 ppt | 26.5% | -0.1 ppt |
| NM | 20.1% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 13.5 ppt | 3.5 ppt | 21.3% | -1.2 ppt | 22.2% | -2.0 ppt |
NYPCB
Valuation
Our DCF-based TP for NYPCB is NT$1,700. With a risk-free rate of 5.00% (10-year government bond rate), a market risk premium of 7% and an equity beta of 1.22 (YTD weekly share price), we calculate NYPCB's WACC as 13.4%. Our TP is equivalent to 30x/13x 2027E EPS/BVPS, which reflects its high P/E multiple during upcycles. NYPCB traded at 15-20x P/E during its 2003-2008 upcycle driven by PC/NB demand strength. In 2010-11 when the market was recovering from the global financial crisis, NYPCB traded at 25-35x P/E. In the last 2019-22 upcycle when ABF was in shortage, NYPCB traded at 30-40x P/E.
Risks
Key downside risks that could prevent the NYPCB shares from reaching our target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected ABF demand from key customers; 2) BT business seasonality weakness and fewer-than-expected price hikes; and 3) severe T glass shortages that cause a bottleneck to its production.
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