PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_創意3443_20261105_original.pdf
原始內容
[讀者資訊已遮蔽] citi
05 Nov 2026 10:40:44 ET │ 15 pages
GUC (3443.TW)
Accelerating growth despite macro uncertainties
CITI'S TAKE
Despite recent market turbulence and rising concerns on AI hardware spending, as the AI ASIC projects including CPU and accelerators are long term and need consistent development, we believe the order and projects visibility to persist. GUC's CPUs business for Google and Microsoft will likely see multiple growth into next year, and the company's strong Oct sales of NT$8.4bn (up 18% and 127% YoY) also showed a strong start in 4Q26. We reiterate Buy.
Riding on agentic AI CPU demand; automotive to succeed into 2028 - On the back of solid agentic compute momentum, we see continuous upside from major CSP customers. We expect GUC's AI CPU revenue contribution to be over 60% into 2027 with significant N3 product ramping up. In addition, its automotive ASIC for China and US clients are also entering mass volume production, we expect to see substantial upside into 2028.
OPM expansion along with scale volume growth - In the AI ASIC design service space, we see OPM expansion usually along with large scale product ramping up and better efficiency and execution. Despite large volume turnkey business carrying lower GM, we see GUC 's solid execution and strong customers relationships to support growth outlook into next two years on the back of significant operating leverage and OPM expansion.
Lift earnings projection into 2027/2028; reiterate Buy/High Risk with updated TP NT$8,000 - We believe GUC's CPU business from US majors CSP to accelerate thanks to robust agentic AI demand. GUC has already secured the next generation ARM-based CPU in more advanced nodes with higher ASPs. Other than CPU/AI ASIC, we also see continuous consumer ASICs orders from CSP clients as well as automotive/robotic ASIC into 2028. We thus raise we raise our 2026/27/28 EPS by 7%/11%/61%. We lift our TP to NT$8,000 but lower PER target to now 37x from 45x on macro uncertainties. We maintain Buy/High Risk on GUC.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31 Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | Diluted EPS (NT$) | EPS growth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 3,451 | 25.63 | -1.6 | na | 76.0 | 32.9 | 0.2 |
| 2025A | 3,770 | 28.01 | 9.3 | na | 66.5 | 31.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026E | 7,617 | 56.74 | 102.6 | 112.9 | 48.0 | 49.5 | 0.2 |
| 2027E | 17,423 | 129.83 | 128.8 | 49.3 | 24.3 | 65.5 | 0.6 |
| 2028E | 41,215 | 307.12 | 136.6 | 20.9 | 11.2 | 73.7 | 0.6 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
| n Buy / High Risk Short-Term View: Upside Price (05 Nov 26 13:30) | NT$6,405.00 |
|---|---|
| Target price from NT$6,880.00 | NT$8,000.00↑ |
| Expected share price return | 24.9% |
| Expected dividend yield | 0.6% |
| Expected total return | 25.5% |
| Market Cap | NT$858,346M |
| US$26,118M |
Price Performance
(RIC: 3443.TW, BB: 3443 TT)
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093
nicholas.lai@citi.com [讀者資訊已遮蔽] [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | 3443.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Price: NT$6,405.00; TP: NT$8,000.00; Market Cap: NT$858,346m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - Valuation ratios | Price: NT$6,405.00; TP: NT$8,000.00; Market Cap: NT$858,346m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2024 | Price: NT$6,405.00; TP: NT$8,000.00; Market Cap: NT$858,346m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2025 | Price: NT$6,405.00; TP: NT$8,000.00; Market Cap: NT$858,346m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2026E | Price: NT$6,405.00; TP: NT$8,000.00; Market Cap: NT$858,346m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2027E | Price: NT$6,405.00; TP: NT$8,000.00; Market Cap: NT$858,346m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue | 25,044 | 34,141 | 64,729 | 142,285 | 299,910 | PE (x) | na | na | na | 49.3 | 20.9 |
| Cost of sales | -16,937 | -25,687 | -50,865 | -114,236 | -236,729 | PB (x) | 76.0 | 66.5 | 48.0 | 24.3 | 11.2 |
| Gross profit | 8,108 | 8,454 | 13,864 | 28,049 | 63,181 | EV/EBITDA (x) | na | na | 95.3 | 41.6 | 17.6 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 32.4 | 24.8 | 21.4 | 19.7 | 21.1 | FCF yield (%) | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1.8 |
| EBITDA (Adj) | 4,050 | 4,623 | 8,895 | 20,401 | 47,952 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) | 16.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 14.3 | 16.0 | Payout ratio (%) | 55 | 50 | 28 | 29 | 12 |
| Depreciation | -247 | -273 | -432 | -543 | -596 | ROE (%) | 32.9 | 31.1 | 49.5 | 65.5 | 73.7 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 3,803 | 4,350 | 8,463 | 19,858 | 47,356 | EBITDA | 4,050 | 4,623 | 8,895 | 20,401 | 47,952 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 15.2 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 14.0 | 15.8 | Working capital | 1,461 | -4,670 | 3,509 | -26,426 | -26,277 |
| Net interest | 150 | 177 | 140 | 72 | 72 | Other | -352 | -580 | -847 | -2,435 | -6,142 |
| Associates | 50 | 36 | 1 | -28 | -28 | Operating cashflow | 5,158 | -628 | 11,557 | -8,459 | 15,533 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 60 | -121 | 180 | 236 | 236 | Capex | -471 | -839 | -1,089 | -480 | -480 |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,062 | 4,443 | 8,784 | 20,138 | 47,636 | Net acq/disposals | -21 | -257 | 533 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -612 | -673 | -1,168 | -2,715 | -6,422 | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Investing cashflow | -492 | -1,096 | -555 | -480 | -480 | |
| Reported net profit | 3,451 | 3,770 | 7,617 | 17,423 | 41,215 | Dividends paid | -1,876 | -2,144 | -5,023 | -4,736 | -10,827 |
| Net Margin (%) | 13.8 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 13.7 | Financing cashflow | -1,930 | -2,000 | -2,626 | 1,248 | 1,253 |
| Core NPAT | 3,451 | 3,770 | 7,617 | 17,423 | 41,215 | Net change in cash | 2,736 | -3,724 | 8,376 | -7,691 | 16,306 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 4,688 | -1,467 | 10,468 | -8,939 | 15,053 |
| Reported EPS ($) | 25.63 | 28.01 | 56.74 | 129.83 | 307.12 | ||||||
| Core EPS ($) | 25.63 | 28.01 | 56.74 | 129.83 | 307.12 | ||||||
| DPS ($) | 14.00 | 14.00 | 16.00 | 37.48 | 35.34 | ||||||
| CFPS ($) | 38.31 | -4.67 | 86.10 | -63.04 | 115.75 | ||||||
| FCFPS | 34.81 | -10.90 | 77.98 | -66.61 | 112.17 | ||||||
| ($) BVPS ($) | 84.28 | 96.36 | 133.46 | 263.47 | 571.02 | ||||||
| Wtd avg ord shares (m) | 134 | 134 | 134 | 134 | 134 | ||||||
| Wtd avg diluted shares (m) | 135 | 135 | 134 | 134 | 134 | ||||||
| Growth rates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | -4.6 | 36.3 | 89.6 | 119.8 | 110.8 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | -4.2 | 14.4 | 94.6 | 134.6 | 138.5 | ||||||
| Core NPAT (%) | -1.6 | 9.2 | 102.1 | 128.8 | 136.6 | ||||||
| Core EPS (%) | -1.6 | 9.3 | 102.6 | 128.8 | 136.6 | ||||||
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash & cash equiv. | 10,427 | 6,650 | 14,835 | 7,376 | 23,602 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 2,007 | 3,417 | 5,105 | 12,693 | 22,690 | ||||||
| Inventory | 2,794 | 10,148 | 19,308 | 46,199 | 83,336 | ||||||
| Net fixed & other tangibles | 1,218 | 1,880 | 2,205 | 1,909 | 1,874 | ||||||
| Goodwill & intangibles | 611 | 826 | 815 | 815 | 815 | ||||||
| Financial & other assets | 9,251 | 5,522 | 6,830 | 17,188 | 37,182 | ||||||
| Total assets | 26,309 | 28,443 | 49,098 | 86,180 | 169,499 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 1,691 | 4,126 | 8,901 | 22,169 | 40,738 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 73 | 169 | 170 | 1,418 | 2,672 | ||||||
| Provisions & other liab | 13,251 | 11,235 | 22,141 | 27,284 | 49,567 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 15,015 | 15,530 | 31,212 | 50,872 | 92,976 | ||||||
| Shareholders' equity interests | 11,294 | 12,913 | 17,885 | 35,309 | 76,523 0 | ||||||
| Minority | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Total equity | 11,294 -10,354 | 12,913 -6,481 | 17,885 -14,664 | 35,309 -5,958 | 76,523 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -20,930 | ||||||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) For definitions of the items in this table, | -91.7 please click here. | -50.2 | -82.0 | -16.9 | -27.4 |
Figure 1. GUC - Monthly revenues trend
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research
Figure 2. GUC - Estimates Revisions
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - New | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Chg. | 2027E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Chg. | 2028E - New | 2028E - Old | 2028E - Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 64,729 | 61,671 | 5% | 142,285 | 120,599 | 18% | 299,910 | 198,594 | 51% |
| YoY growth | 90% | 81% | 120% | 96% | 111% | 65% | |||
| Gross profit | 13,864 | 13,756 | 1% | 28,049 | 27,415 | 2% | 63,181 | 44,981 | 40% |
| Opex | 5,401 | 5,985 | -10% | 8,191 | 9,893 | -17% | 15,824 | 16,319 | -3% |
| Operating profit | 8,463 | 7,771 | 9% | 19,858 | 17,523 | 13% | 47,356 | 28,662 | 65% |
| Pre-tax profit | 8,784 | 8,092 | 9% | 20,138 | 17,803 | 13% | 47,636 | 28,942 | 65% |
| Net income | 7,617 | 7,109 | 7% | 17,423 | 15,768 | 10% | 41,215 | 25,634 | 61% |
| EPS (NT$) | 56.74 | 52.79 | 7% | 129.83 | 117.10 | 11% | 307.12 | 190.38 | 61% |
| Gross margin | 21.4% | 22.3%-0.9 | ppt | 19.7% | 22.7% | -3.0 ppt | 21.1% | 22.6% | -1.6 ppt |
| Opex ratio | 8.3% | 9.7% | -1.4 ppt | 5.8% | 8.2% | -2.4 ppt | 5.3% | 8.2% | -2.9 ppt |
| Operating margin | 13.1% | 12.6%+0.5 | ppt | 14.0% | 14.5%-0.6 | ppt | 15.8% | 14.4% | +1.4 ppt |
| Net margin | 11.8% | 11.5%+0.2 | ppt | 12.2% | 13.1% | -0.8 ppt | 13.7% | 12.9%+0.8 | ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research
Figure 5. GUC - Forecast summary
| GUC - (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) | 2025 - 1Q | 2025 - 2Q | 2025 - 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2026 2Q | 3Q | 2027 - 4QE | 2027 - 1QE | 2027 - 2QE | 2027 - 3QE | 2027 - 4QE | 2027 - 2025 | 2027 - 2026E | 2027 - 2027E | 2027 - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,024 | 6,105 | 8,613 | 12,400 | 11,448 | 13,896 | 18,755 | 20,630 | 24,527 | 30,533 | 39,239 | 47,985 | 34,141 | 64,729 | 142,285 | 299,910 |
| COGS | -5,051 | -4,071 | -6,527 | -10,038 | -8,335 | -10,902 | -14,895 | -16,733 | -19,965 | -24,344 | -31,420 | -38,507 | -25,687 | -50,865 | -114,236 | -236,729 |
| Depreciation costs | -6 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -23 | -21 | -21 | -21 |
| Gross Profit | 1,973 | 2,034 | 2,086 | 2,361 | 3,113 | 2,994 | 3,860 | 3,897 | 4,562 | 6,189 | 7,819 | 9,478 | 8,454 | 13,864 | 28,049 | 63,181 |
| Operating Expense | -878 | -1,090 | -1,031 | -1,105 | -1,289 | -1,318 | -1,309 | -1,485 | -1,889 | -1,679 | -2,080 | -2,543 | -4,104 | -5,401 | -8,191 | -15,824 |
| SG&A expenses | -224 | -253 | -218 | -224 | -276 | -271 | -273 | -351 | -417 | -458 | -510 | -624 | -920 | -1,170 | -2,009 | -3,828 |
| R&D expenses | -800 | -837 | -813 | -880 | -1,013 | -1,046 | -1,036 | -1,135 | -1,472 | -1,221 | -1,570 | -1,919 | -3,330 | -4,231 | -6,182 | -11,996 |
| EBIT | 1,095 | 944 | 1,055 | 1,257 | 1,824 | 1,676 | 2,551 | 2,412 | 2,673 | 4,510 | 5,739 | 6,935 | 4,350 | 8,463 | 19,858 | 47,356 |
| Pre-TaxProfit | 1,143 | 929 | 1,015 | 1,356 | 1,925 | 1,756 | 2,626 | 2,483 | 2,742 | 4,580 | 5,809 | 7,006 | 4,443 | 8,784 | 20,138 | 47,636 |
| Tax | -181 | -147 | -148 | -196 | -278 | -201 | -354 | -335 | -370 | -617 | -783 | -944 | -673 | -1,168 | -2,715 | -6,422 |
| Net Profit | 961 | 782 | 867 | 1,160 | 1,646 | 1,555 | 2,272 | 2,148 | 2,373 | 3,963 | 5,026 | 6,062 | 3,770 | 7,617 | 17,423 | 41,215 |
| EPS (NT$) | 714 | 5.81 | 6.44 | 8.61 | 12.25 | 11.59 | 16.93 | 16.01 | 17.68 | 29.53 | 37.46 | 45.17 | 28.01 | 56.74 | 129.83 | 307.12 |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||||||
| Gross Margin | 28.1% | 33.3% | 24.2% | 19.0% | 27.2% | 21.5% | 20.6% | 18.9% | 18.6% | 20.3% | 19.9% | 19.8% | 24.8% | 21.4% | 19.7% | 21.1% |
| Operating Margin | 15.6% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 15.8% |
| Net Margin | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 10.4% | %L*6 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 13.7% |
| Sequential Growth (%) | ||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 17% | -13% | 41% | 44% | -8% | 21% | 35% | 10% | 19% | 24% | 29% | 22% | 39% | %06 | 120% | 111% |
| Gross Profit | -1% | 3% | 3% | 13% | 32% | -4% | 29% | 1% | %% | 36% | 26% | 21% | 4% | 64% | 102% | 125% |
| EBIT | 25% | -14% | 12% | 19% | 45% | -8% | 52% | -5% | 11% | 69% | 27% | 21% | 14% | %9% | 135% | 138% |
| Net Profit | 14% | 169% | 11% | 3%4% | 42% | -6% | 46% | -5% | 10% | 67% | 27% | 21% | 9% | 102% | 129% | 137% |
| EPS | 14% | -19% | 11% | 34% | 42% | -5% | 46% | -5% | 10% | 67% | 27% | 21% | 9% | 103% | 129% | 137% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Adding Upside 90-Day Short-Term View on GUC (3443.TW)
Direction:
Duration:
Upside
Within 90 Days
Category:
Thematic driven
We see GUC's strong revenues momentum to support its share price performance in the coming months.
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Bull/Bear: GUC (3443.TW)
Spread 78pp
Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 05 Nov 2026
BULLAssumptions
- Stronger projects demand from US CSP customers
- Stronger-than-expected NRE demand from HPC
BASE Assumptions
- Smooth project progress with US customers in advanced node demand
BEAR Assumptions
- Slower projects demand from US CSP customers
- Weaker-than-expected NRE demand from HPC
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
GUC
Company description
Founded in 1998, Global Unichip (GUC) specializes in providing IC design services, particularly in ASIC service. As a subsidiary of TSMC, which holds 34.8% of GUC, it offers a wide range of design services including spec-in and SoC integration, physical implementation, 2.5D/3D packaging technologies, mass production services, and advanced technologies such as high bandwidth memory (HBM) and chip to chip interconnect IP. With its diversified global presence - Taiwan, North America, China, Europe, South Korea, and Japan - the company offers services including mass production, NRE, customer wafer verification projects, and IP licensing. Mass production services provide customers with complete service, from back-end design completion to wafer manufacturing, testing and management.
Investment strategy
We rate GUC stock as Buy/High Risk. We are seeing strong growth from its CPU projects with two leading CSP customers. We also see strong order potential from its EV clients. Long-term, we still believe back-end design capability and 3DIC system integration will be critical to AI accelerators, which would give better opportunities for TSMC 3DFabric partners with GUC also being a beneficiary, in our view.
Valuation
Our target price for GUC of NT$8,000 (rounded) is based on 37x PER to the average of our 2027/28E EPS, slightly above its historical 3-year PER average which we believe is justified by its strong earnings outlook supported by solid demand from its AI projects with two US leading CSPs and growth upside from its US EV clients. Our target price equates to 2027/28E PB of 30x/14x.
Risks
Our quant risk rating system rates the GUC stock High Risk for its share-price volatility. Downside risks that could mean the stock trades below our target price include: 1) slower projects demand from US CSP customers, 2) lowerthan-expected NRE demand from less AI ASIC projects, and 3) delayed or less turnkey revenues contribution from key customers.
If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788
Appendix A-1
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-07）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_Citi_創意3443_20261105_001.png |
17KB | 未逐項檢視（<40KB） | 報告首頁股價表現小圖，未採用 |
報告_Citi_創意3443_20261105_002.png |
61KB | 真資料圖 | GUC 月營收（NT$m，柱狀）與 YoY（%，折線）2025-01 至 2026-10；10 月柱最高約 8,400，YoY 約 127% |
報告_Citi_創意3443_20261105_003.png |
101KB | 真資料圖 | 左：GUC 前瞻本益比通道（2012–2026，倍數線 8.6x／24.3x／40.0x／55.7x／71.4x）；右：前瞻 P/B 通道與 ROE（2.8x／8.7x／14.6x／20.5x／26.4x），2026 年股價陡升 |
報告_Citi_創意3443_20261105_004.png |
102KB | 真資料圖 | Citi 風險報酬圖：現價 NT$6,405（2026-11-05）；牛市 NT$10,000（+56%）、基準 NT$8,000（+25%）、熊市 NT$5,000（−22%） |
報告_Citi_創意3443_20261105_005.png |
190KB | 文字卡 | Citi 對 GUC 的評等與目標價沿革表（2023-12 至 2026-07，目標價 1,440→6,880）及短期觀點紀錄，圖上股價走勢；屬揭露頁性質 |