報告_Citi_世界先進5347_20260804

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原始內容

(RIC: 5346.1WO, BB: 534611)

TWD

200

180

160

140

120

100

Prepared for Kevin Lu

04 Aug 2026 10:02:44 ET │ 15 pages

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Vanguard International Semi. (5347.TWO)

Tight capacity reinforces pricing upside

CITI'S TAKE

VIS's 2Q earnings were roughly inline with expectations with GM/OPM at 32.3% and 20.4%. Net profit was NT$2.98bn (up 32% QoQ and 46% YoY). The UTR was about 87% in 2Q26 and management expects an increase to 90% in 3Q and higher into 4Q. Beyond AI, management sees improving fundamentals across several mature-node end markets. Industrial demand has resumed growth, while automotive has stabilized with increasing semiconductor content and market share gains offsetting lower vehicle production. Customer inventories outside AI remain healthy and well controlled despite selective inventory builds. Supported by accelerating AI infrastructure deployment, management believes the mature-node foundry market is entering a broader recovery phase with improving utilization and pricing trends. Maintain Buy, with TP higher to NT$185.

Capacity expansion amid tight supply -To address persistent strong demand extending into 2027, VIS emphasized it remains as one of the few foundries still meaningfully expanding 8-inch fabs to support customers' power semiconductor demand. Currently, PMIC contributes 77% of its 2Q revenue with AI contribution to reach double-digit % in 2026 (vs LSD % last year). VSMC's Singapore 12-inch fab is ramping ahead of schedule, with breakeven and full utilization expected earlier than originally planned. Phase one 44kwpm capacity has been largely committed, mainly for power and interposer. Management also continues sourcing second-hand equipment and upgrading existing fabs to maximize capacity expansion at attractive economics.

Pricing Momentum Reflects Rising Costs and Strong Demand -For 3Q26, wafer shipment is expected to be up 1-3% QoQ and blended ASP to increase 2-4% QoQ, primarily reflecting direct pricing actions with additional support from product mix improvements. GM to improve to 33.5% (mid-point) on higher UTR but rising depreciation cost. 3Q guidance is roughly inline with market expectations. Management expects pricing to remain on an upward trajectory into 2027, driven by structural cost inflation and sustained tight capacity. Rising labor, material, and equipment costs require price adjustments to preserve long-term competitiveness and support continued investment. Management indicated 2027 price increases are unlikely to be smaller than those implemented in 2026.

Earnings Summary

Year to 31Dec	Net Profit (NT$M)	DilutedEPS (NT$)	EPSgrowth (%)	P/E (x)	P/B (x)	ROE (%)	Yield (%)
2024A	7,046	4.27	-4	36.2	4.2	12.3	2.9
2025A	7,908	4.25	-0.4	36.3	3.5	10.4	2.9
2026E	11,352	5.91	38.8	26.2	3	12.7	3.7
2027E	14,243	7.41	25.5	20.8	2.9	14.6	4.7
2028E	17,545	9.13	23.2	16.9	2.8	17.4	5.8

Source: Powered by dataCentral

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

n Buy
Short-Term View: Upside Price(04Aug2615:00)	NT$154.50
Target price fromNT$170.00 Expected share price	NT$185.00↑
return	19.7%
Expected dividend yield	4.6%
Expected total return	24.3%
MarketCap	NT$290,393M
	US$8,960M

Price Performance (RIC: 5347.TWO, BB: 5347 TT)

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC

+886-2-8726-9090

laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091

jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093

nicholas.lai@citi.com

Prepared for Kevin Lu

	5347.TWO:Fiscalyearend31-Dec						Price: NT$154.50; TP: NT$185.00; MarketCap:NT$290,393m; Recomm:Buy	Price: NT$154.50; TP: NT$185.00; MarketCap:NT$290,393m; Recomm:Buy	Price: NT$154.50; TP: NT$185.00; MarketCap:NT$290,393m; Recomm:Buy	Price: NT$154.50; TP: NT$185.00; MarketCap:NT$290,393m; Recomm:Buy	Price: NT$154.50; TP: NT$185.00; MarketCap:NT$290,393m; Recomm:Buy
Profit&Loss(NT$m)	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E	Valuation ratios	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Sales revenue	44,055	48,591	59,310	78,094	89,205	PE(x)	36.2	36.3	26.2	20.8	16.9
Cost of sales	-32,122	-34,937	-39,780	-51,338	-57,495	PB(x)	4.2	3.5	3.0	2.9	2.8
Gross profit	11,933	13,654	19,530	26,756	31,710	EV/EBITDA(x)	15.4	14.7	12.5	8.5	6.3
Gross Margin (%)	27.1	28.1	32.9	34.3	35.5	FCFyield (%)	-2.1	-14.5	-16.5	14.8	5.6
EBITDA(Adj)	15,578	16,231	21,709	32,142	40,488	Dividend yield (%)	2.9	2.9	3.7	4.7	5.8
EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%)	35.4	33.4	36.6	41.2	45.4	Payout ratio (%)	105	105	98	98	98
Depreciation	-8,467	-8,458	-9,482	-15,130	-19,695	ROE(%)	12.3	10.4	12.7	14.6	17.4
Amortisation	0	0	0	0	0	Cashflow(NT$m)	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
EBIT (Adj)	7,111	7,773	12,226	17,012	20,794	EBITDA	15,578	16,231	21,709	32,142	40,488
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%)	16.1	16.0	20.6	21.8	23.3	Working capital	-817	-922	-5,322	-4,785	-2,504
Net interest	1,665	1,484	964	-51	145	Other	-3,992	21,336	-5,763	69,174	28,712
Associates	-15	93	-329	0	0	Operating cashflow	10,770	36,645	10,625	96,530	66,696
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj	-10	-100	553	200	200	Capex	-16,004	-78,186	-59,737	-52,500	-50,000
Pre-tax profit	8,752	9,251	13,414	17,161	21,138	Net acq/disposals	0	0	0	0	0
Tax	-1,705	-1,480	-2,225	-2,917	-3,594	Other	-2,586	-1,349	-173	0	0
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div.	-1	137	164	0	0	Investing cashflow	-18,590	-79,535	-59,910	-52,500	-50,000
Reported net profit	7,046	7,908	11,352	14,243	17,545	Dividends paid	-7,375	-8,400	-8,303	-10,785	-13,531
Net Margin (%)	16.0	16.3	19.1	18.2	19.7	Financing cashflow	37,940	24,283	19,220	-13,691	-13,448
CoreNPAT	7,046	7,908	11,352	14,243	17,545	Net change in cash	30,120	-18,607	-30,065	30,339	3,248
Per share data	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E	Free cashflow to s/holders	-5,235	-41,541	-49,113	44,030	16,696
Reported EPS($)	4.27	4.25	5.91	7.41	9.13
Core EPS($)	4.27	4.25	5.91	7.41	9.13
DPS($)	4.50	4.45	5.78	7.25	8.93
CFPS($)	6.53	19.72	5.53	50.23	34.71
FCFPS($)	-3.17	-22.35	-25.56	22.91	8.69
BVPS($)	36.79	44.77	51.16	53.01	55.16
Wtdavgordshares(m)	1,650	1,858	1,922	1,922	1,922
Wtdavgdiluted shares (m)	1,650	1,858	1,922	1,922	1,922
Growthrates	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Sales revenue (%)	15.1	10.3	22.1	31.7	14.2
EBIT (Adj) (%)	23.2	9.3	57.3	39.1	22.2
CoreNPAT(%)	-4.4	12.2	43.6	25.5	23.2
CoreEPS(%)	-4.0	-0.4	38.8	25.5	23.2
BalanceSheet(NT$m)	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Cash&cashequiv.	57,820	39,076	8,664	39,003	42,251
Accounts receivables	6,235	6,748	9,596	12,072	13,358
Inventory	6,221	6,937	9,999	12,578	13,918
Net fixed &other tangibles	55,230	124,335	175,356	212,726	243,031
Goodwill &intangibles	0	0	0	0	0
Financial &other assets	23,384	23,556	30,881	36,571	39,526
Total assets	148,889	200,652	234,495	312,951	352,083
Accounts payable	1,416	1,724	2,312	2,583	2,704
Short-term debt	0	10,520	17,674	14,767	14,850
Long-term debt	0	0	0	0	0
Provisions &other liab	78,622	104,635	118,991	196,624	231,539
Total liabilities	80,039	116,879	138,977	213,974	249,093
equity	68,667 0		0	98,976	0
Shareholders' Minority interests		83,590 0	95,518	0	102,990
Total equity	68,667	83,590	95,518	98,976	102,990
Net debt (Adj)	-57,820	-28,556	9,010	-24,236	-27,401
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%)	-84.2
For definitions of the items in this table,	please click here.	-34.2	9.4	-24.5	-26.6

Figure 1. Vanguard - 2026 results comparison

2026

4,604

32.3%

2,901

20.4%

2,975

1.55

1Q26

(NT$mn)

Revenue

Gross profit

Gross margin

Op. profit

OP margin

Net income

EPS (NTS)

3,671

29.3%

2,087

16.7%

2,246

1.17

25%

+3.0 ppt

39%

+3.7 ppt

32%

2Q25

3,280

28.0%

1,897

16.2%

2,043

1.10

40%

+4,3 ppt

53%

+4.2 ppt

46%

40%

@ 2026 Citioroun Inc No redistribution without Citioroun's written nermission

Prepared for Kevin Lu

2Q26

Citi

14,356

4,655

32.4%

2,860

19.9%

2,780

Diff.

-1%

0.1 ppt

+0.4 ppt

2026

Cons.

14,441

4,662

32.3%

2,914

20.2%

2,845

+0.0 ppt

+0.2 ppt

AI Power Portfolio Remains Anchored on 8-inch Manufacturing -With higher power demand for AI infrastructure, management believes discrete power solutions will remain as the mainstream architecture for AI servers over the next several years. While fully integrated Smart Power Stages (SPS) manufactured on 12-inch nodes are emerging, high-power AI applications continue to favor discrete controller plus MOSFET solutions due to superior robustness. Meanwhile, VIS continues expanding silicon carbide capabilities, targeting engineering samples in early 2027 to address future AI data center and automotive power applications.

Reiterate Buy; TP higher to NT$185 -Anticipating improving earnings outlook and better UTR, we lift our 2026/27/28 earnings projection by 3%/3%/18%. We maintain Buy with TP NT$185 (unchanged 25x PER but moving to 2027 EPS).

Figure 1. Vanguard - 2Q26 results comparison

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg

Figure 2. Vanguard - Estimates Revisions

	2026E	2026E	2026E	2027E	2027E	2027E	2028E	2028E	2028E
(NT$mn)	New	Old	Chg.	New	Old	Chg.	New	Old	Chg.
Sales	59,310	59,120	0%	78,094	75,406	4%	89,205	85,738	4%
YoYgrowth	22%	22%		32%	28%		14%	14%
Gross profit	19,530	19,390	1%	26,756	25,899	3%	31,710	28,117	13%
Opex	7,304	7,358	-1%	9,744	9,412	4%	10,916	10,492	4%
Operating profit	12,226	12,032	2%	17,012	16,487	3%	20,794	17,625	18%
Pre-tax profit	13,414	13,070	3%	17,161	16,635	3%	21,138	17,969	18%
Net income	11,352	11,033	3%	14,243	13,807	3%	17,545	14,914	18%
EPS(NT$)	5.91	5.93	0%	7.41	7.42	0%	9.13	8.01	14%
Gross margin	32.9%	32.8%	+0.1 ppt	34.3%	34.3%	-0.1 ppt	35.5%	32.8%	+2.8 ppt
Opexratio	12.3%	12.4%	-0.1 ppt	12.5%	12.5%	-0.0 ppt	12.2%	12.2%	+0.0ppt
Operating margin	20.6%	20.4%	+0.3 ppt	21.8%	21.9%	-0.1 ppt	23.3%	20.6%	+2.8 ppt
Net margin	19.1%	18.7%	+0.5 ppt	18.2%	18.3%	-0.1 ppt	19.7%	17.4%	+2.3 ppt

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg

Figure s. Vanguard - Forecast summary

Figure 3. Vanguard - Forward P/E band

NT$

Unit: NTSmn

300

Revenue

250

COGS

Gross Profit

Operating Expense

200

EBIT

Net Interest Income

150

100

Net Other Income

Pre Tax Profit

Net Profit

EPS (NT$)

Margins (%)

2010

Gross Margin

@ 2026 Citioroun Inc. No redistribution without Citigroun's written permission.

Operating Margin

Net Margin

Sequential Growth (%)

Volume

Revenue

Gross Profit

EBIT

Net Profit

Prepared for Kevin Lu

2026

14,245

9,641

4,604

1,703

2,901

313.7

98.6

30E

15,837

10,516

5,321

1,980

3,342

212.7

50.0

Figure 4. Vanguard - Forward P/B band & ROE

NT$

250

40E

16,696

10,762

5,934

200

2,037

3,897

150

112.7

100

50.0

1QE

17,544

11,586

5,958

2,281

3,677

12.7

50.0

2027

20E

18,862

12,312

6,550

2,358

4,192

-37.3

50.0

30E

20,684

13,736

6,948

2,585

4,363

11.7

50.0

4QE

21,004

13,704

7,300

2,520

4,780

-38.3

50.0

2025

48,591

-34,937

13,654

-5,880

7,773

1,484.5

-7.1

2026E

59,310

-39,780

19,530

-7,304

12,226

964.3

223.5

2027E

78,094

-51,338

26,756

-9,744

17,012

-51.2

200.0

1,359

3,597

2,238

473.4

2,675

36.8

2025

3,280

1,384

1,897

390.6

94.5

3,312

1,480

1,832

307.0

-39.7

3,671

1,584

2,087

325.2

24.8

ROE

2028E

30%

31,710

-10,916

20,794

144.8

20%

200.0

Figure 5. Vanguard - Forecast summary

Source: Citi Research, Company Reports

10%

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Adding Upside 90-Day Short-Term View on Vanguard International Semi. (5347.TWO)

Direction:

Upside

Duration:

Within 90 Days

Category:

Thematic driven

We see VIS' improving gross margin on higher UTR and pricing to support its share price performance in the coming months.

NT$

222

185

148

111

Aug 25

A 29% Upside

NT$185.00

4 20% Upside

NT$ 120.00

• 22% Downside

Bull/Bear: Vanguard International Semi. (5347.TWO)

BASE Assumptions

• Robust sales gowth with some GM pressure from increasing depreciation

Some margin impact from the Singapore fab

BEAR Assumptions

• Worse-than-expected 8-inch recovery

Weaker-than-expected PMIC growth

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Vanguard International Semi.

Company description

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation (VIS) is a specialty IC foundry service provider, with existing capacity mainly focused on 8-inch. VIS offers a wide range of process technologies, including high voltage, ultra-high voltage, and BCD. In 2024, VIS and NXP Semiconductors established the VSMC joint venture in Singapore, with its first 12-inch fab set to begin initial production in 2027.

Investment strategy

We rate Vanguard a Buy as we expect it to benefit from robust PMIC sales momentum, driven by strong AI demand and improving industrial demand. VIS is gaining market share in PMIC as clients are looking for non-Chinese suppliers. Moreover, we believe VIS should benefit from transfer orders from TSMC on the 8-inch wafer process. We think VIS has already passed its trough and expect a gradual recovery into 2027.

Valuation

Our target price for VIS of NT$185 is based on 25x 2027E P/E, which we see as justified by its robust PMIC sales growth momentum and increasing outflow order opportunity from TSMC with support from its consistent cash dividend policy. Our target price equates to 2026/27E P/B of 3.6x/3.5x.

Risks

Key downside risks to our target price include: 1) weaker 8-inch demand along with higher costs due to inflation or more severe ASP competition from Chinese peers; 2) lower UTR of the new capacity at the newly acquired fab, with depreciation burden; and 3) less-than-expected outsourcing opportunities from IDMs.

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

報告_Citi_世界先進5347_20260804

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-06）

原始內容

Vanguard International Semi. (5347.TWO)

Tight capacity reinforces pricing upside

CITI'S TAKE

Earnings Summary

Price Performance (RIC: 5347.TWO, BB: 5347 TT)

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC

Figure 1. Vanguard - 2Q26 results comparison

Adding Upside 90-Day Short-Term View on Vanguard International Semi. (5347.TWO)

Bull/Bear: Vanguard International Semi. (5347.TWO)

• Robust sales gowth with some GM pressure from increasing depreciation

• Worse-than-expected 8-inch recovery

Vanguard International Semi.

Company description

Investment strategy

Valuation

Risks

Appendix A-1

被誰引用