PDF 原檔：報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_original.pdf
標的澄清
本報告標的為億豐（Nien Made，8464.TW，窗簾/家居裝飾），非南六（6504）。分析師掛名為 SinoPac（永豐）Jimmy Chou，報告以 CLSA 品牌發行（CLSA-SinoPac 合作研究）。
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-13）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_001.png |
23KB | 裝飾·logo | CLSA 品牌 logo（藍底白字） |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_002.png |
49KB | 真資料圖 | 股價表現表（1M/3M/12M 絕對與相對報酬）+ 股價走勢圖（Aug-24～Jul-26，NT$250-600 區間） |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_003.png |
161KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 1「Nien Made's Guidance」世界地圖：北美窗簾 Mid-Single-Digit Growth、國際（歐洲/日本/澳洲/紐西蘭）High-Single-Digit Growth、成品窗簾 Low-Single-Digit Growth |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_004.png |
261KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 2「Nien Made custom value」美國郡覆蓋率地圖，county coverage rate 51%，標示 2015 base／2019／2025 擴張區域 |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_005.png |
82KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 4 美國銷售 YoY vs 市場需求指標走勢圖（2020-1Q2026），標示 Cordless Transition（Jun 2024）與去化庫存事件 |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_006.png |
86KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 5 歐洲（荷蘭）銷售 YoY vs 市場需求指標走勢圖（2020-1Q2026），標示市占提升（Since 2022） |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_007.png |
58KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 6「Sales by product (%)」訂製窗簾/成品窗簾/其他佔比堆疊圖（2020-2025），訂製佔比由 62%升至73% |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_008.png |
57KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 7「Sales by region (%)」美洲/歐洲/亞洲其他佔比堆疊圖（2019-1H26），美洲由77%降至67%、歐洲由18%升至27% |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_009.png |
60KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 8「American sales YoY (%)」美洲銷售金額（NT$m）與 YoY 成長率雙軸圖（2015-1H26） |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_010.png |
63KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 9「European sales YoY (%)」歐洲銷售金額（NT$m）與 YoY 成長率雙軸圖（2015-1H26） |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_011.png |
53KB | 真資料圖 | 生產／人力分布堆疊圖：Cambodia／China／Others 佔比（2020-1H26），China 佔比由48%降至36%、Others 由10%升至27% |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_012.png |
76KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 18「Consensus PE」歷史本益比走勢圖（Nov-20～Jul-26），標示 Avg 15.9x、±1sd（18.1x/13.7x）、±2sd（20.3x/11.5x） |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_013.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 19「QFII holdings」外資持股比例走勢圖（Jul-21～Jul-26），約 40-46% 區間 |
報告_CLSA_億豐8464_20260812_014.png |
115KB | 真資料圖 | 評等與目標價沿革圖＋表：股價走勢疊加歷次評等符號、下方列出 2023/11-2026/08 各次評等（BUY→O-PF）與目標價（430→525→425→490） |
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原始內容
12 August 2026
Taiwan
Consumer
Reuters
8464.TW
Bloomberg
8464 TT
Priced on 12 August 2026
Taiwan Wtd @ 45,518.0
12M hi/lo
NT$499.50/306.00
12M price target
NT$490.00
±% potential
+25%
Shares in issue
293.0m
Free float (est.)
54.3%
Market cap
US$3.6bn
3M ADV
US$9.6m
Foreign s'holding
40.7%
Major shareholders
Nien Family 29.1% Chuang Family 8.5%
SinoPac analysts:
Jimmy Chou, SinoPac jimmy.chou@cl-sec.com
+886 223 268141
Stock performance (%)
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | 10.6 | 18.8 | (11.8) |
| Relative | 11.1 | 10 | (52.8) |
| Abs (US$) | 10.2 | 16.2 | (18.0) |
Source: Bloomberg
Nien Made
NT$391.00 - OUTPERFORM
Record-high GM
Capacity expansion to drive 2H26 growth
Nien Made's 2Q26 GM hit a record 60% supported by a better product mix and price hikes. We expect momentum to improve further in 2H26 as capacity constraints ease with new facilities in Mexico and Vietnam. Europe remains strong, while the US is still soft amid macro headwinds. To reflect the 2Q26 results and stronger 2H26 outlook, we trim 26SP EPS by 1% but raise 27SP EPS by 2% and lift our target PE from 16x to 18x, reflecting improved momentum and guidance. Raise TP from NT$425 to NT$490, based on 27SP EPS, and reiterate Outperform.
2Q26 results review
Nien Made's 2Q26 GM hit a record 60%, slightly above our forecast. Earnings missed our estimate by 16%, mainly due to two external factors: 1) higher fuel costs following the spike in oil prices, which lifted the Opex ratio by 4.6ppt YoY; and 2) a one-off retrospective tax payment in China, which reduced EPS by NT$0.3. Despite these impacts, we believe the underlying operations remain solid and Nien Made is well positioned to continue gaining market share.
2H26 outlook and capacity expansion
July sales reached a historical high driven by strong international sales and higher ASPs for US custom products. Stock window coverings also showed improving momentum. With Mexico and Vietnam capacity coming online in 2H26, we expect revenue and GM to improve QoQ. Vietnam production will start in September, with revenue contribution beginning in 4Q. Nien Made will also receive tariff refunds in 2H26, providing an additional earnings tailwind.
Performance by region
Non-US custom window coverings led 2Q26 growth, with Europe sales rising 17% YoY and continuing to gain market share, driven by strong contributions from the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium. The Netherlands currently holds the highest market share in Europe at 10% for Nien Made. Management guides for mid-single /high-single-digit growth in the North American and international custom window covering markets (Figure 2).
Reiterate Outperform with new TP of NT$490
Following the 2Q26 results and given the stronger 2H26 outlook, we cut 26SP EPS by 1% but raise 27SP EPS by 2% and our target PE from 16x to 18x, reflecting improved momentum and guidance. We raise our TP from NT$425 to NT$490, still based on 27SP EPS, and reiterate an Outperform rating.
| Financials | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year to 31 December Revenue (NT$m) | 24A 29,535 | 25A 29,969 | 26SP 32,107 | 27SP 34,476 | 28SP 36,443 |
| Rev forecast change (%) | - | - | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Net profit (NT$m) | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| NP forecast change (%) | - | - | (1.5) | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| EPS (NT$) | 23.56 | 22.53 | 24.37 | 27.24 | 29.46 |
| SP/consensus (7) (EPS%) | - | - | 96 | 101 | 100 |
| EPS growth (% YoY) | 25.8 | (4.4) | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| PE (x) | 16.6 | 17.4 | 16.0 | 14.4 | 13.3 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| ROE (%) | 26.8 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 23.6 | 23.4 |
| Net cash per share (NT$) | 51.37 | 53.82 | 56.32 | 63.37 | 71.78 |
Source: SinoPac
Financials at a glance
| Year to 31 December | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | ||||||
| Revenue | 29,535 | 29,969 | 32,107 | 7.1 | 34,476 | 36,443 |
| Cogs (ex-D&A) | (11,574) | (11,287) | (11,690) | (12,408) | (13,038) | |
| Gross Profit (ex-D&A) | 17,961 | 18,682 | 20,417 | 9.3 | 22,068 | 23,405 |
| SG&A and other expenses | (8,537) | (8,706) | (9,836) | (10,060) | (10,408) | |
| Op Ebitda | 9,423 | 9,976 | 10,581 | 6.1 | 12,008 | 12,997 |
| Depreciation/amortisation | (1,056) | (1,059) | (1,156) | (1,276) | (1,393) | |
| Op Ebit | 8,368 | 8,917 | 9,424 | 5.7 | 10,732 | 11,604 |
| Net interest inc/(exp) | 619 | 555 | 495 | (10.7) | 506 | 506 |
| Other non-Op items | 491 | (256) | 367 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 9,477 | 9,215 | 10,286 | 11.6 | 11,238 | 12,110 |
| Taxation | (2,359) | (2,279) | (2,777) | (2,877) | (3,100) | |
| Profit after tax | 7,118 | 6,936 | 7,510 | 8.3 | 8,361 | 9,010 |
| Minority interest | (215) | (335) | (368) | (378) | (378) | |
| Net profit | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 8.2 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| Adjusted profit | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 8.2 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| Cashflow (NT$m) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Operating profit | 8,368 | 8,917 | 9,424 | 5.7 | 10,732 | 11,604 |
| Depreciation/amortisation | 1,056 | 1,059 | 1,156 | 9.2 | 1,276 | 1,393 |
| Working capital changes | 124 | (452) | (1,077) | (494) | (422) | |
| Other items | (1,001) | (2,472) | (1,864) | (2,321) | (2,543) | |
| Net operating cashflow | 8,547 | 7,052 | 7,640 | 8.3 | 9,194 | 10,032 |
| Capital expenditure | (1,879) | (1,541) | (2,221) | (2,000) | (2,000) | |
| Free cashflow | 6,668 | 5,511 | 5,420 | (1.7) | 7,194 | 8,032 |
| M&A/Others | (599) | (72) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net investing cashflow | (2,478) | (1,613) | (2,221) | (2,000) | (2,000) | |
| Increase in loans | 834 | 333 | (624) | (48) | (43) | |
| Dividends | (3,516) | (4,249) | (4,688) | (5,128) | (5,567) | |
| Net equity raised/other | (331) | (570) | 0 | - | - | |
| Net financing cashflow | (3,014) | (4,486) | (5,312) | (5,176) | (5,610) | |
| Incr/(decr) in net cash | 3,055 | 953 | 107 | (88.7) | 2,018 | 2,422 |
| Exch rate movements | (18) | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Balance sheet (NT$m) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Cash & equivalents | 15,857 | 16,872 | 16,979 | 0.6 | 18,998 | 21,419 |
| Accounts receivable | 2,865 | 3,045 | 3,958 | 30 | 4,251 | 4,493 |
| Other current assets | 5,839 | 5,587 | 5,818 | 4.1 | 6,110 | 6,374 |
| Fixed assets | 10,588 | 11,494 | 12,558 | 9.3 | 13,282 | 13,890 |
| Investments | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Other non-current assets Total assets | 2,700 37,858 | 3,017 40,025 | 3,319 42,643 | 10 6.5 | 3,651 46,301 | 4,016 50,202 |
| Short-term debt | 402 | 571 | - | - | - | |
| Accounts payable | 963 | 749 | 780 | 4 | 831 | 876 |
| Other current liabs | 5,322 | 4,824 | 4,920 | 2 | 5,019 | 5,119 |
| Long-term debt/CBs | 402 | 530 | 477 | (10) | 430 | 387 |
| Provisions/other LT liabs | 2,689 | 2,941 | 3,235 | 10 | 3,559 | 3,915 |
| Shareholder funds | 27,611 | 30,004 | 32,457 | 8.2 | 35,312 | 38,376 |
| Minorities/other equity | 470 | 405 | 773 | 90.9 | 1,151 | 1,529 |
| Total liabs & equity | 37,858 | 40,025 | 42,643 | 6.5 | 46,301 | 50,202 |
| Revenue growth (% YoY) | 9.7 | 1.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.7 | |
| Ebitda margin (%) | 31.9 | 33.3 | 33.0 | 34.8 | 35.7 | |
| 28.3 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 31.1 | 31.8 | ||
| Ebit margin (%) Net profit growth (%) | (4.4) | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.1 | ||
| Op cashflow growth (% YoY) | 25.8 24.2 | (17.5) | 8.3 | 20.3 | 9.1 | |
| Capex/sales (%) | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (53.6) | (51.9) | (49.7) | (50.9) | (52.7) | |
| Net debt/Ebitda (x) ROE (%) | - 26.8 | - 22.9 | - 22.9 | - 23.6 | - 23.4 | |
| ROIC (%) | 42.2 | 36.7 | 39.0 | |||
| 40.3 | 38.6 |
Source: SinoPac
Nien Made guidance
CLSA
Great
Remerch merited by Gil SinoPac
Solid
Meh
Figure 1
Nien Made's Guidance
© North America Custom Window Coverings:
Mid-Single-Digit Growth
@ International Custom Window Coverings:
High-Single-Digit Growth
(Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, etc.)/
- r Revenue: NT$7,928m (+9% QoQ, +3% YoY), vs. our forecast of NT$7,928m and consensus of NT$7,992m.
- r GPM: 60.0% vs. our forecast of 59.3% and consensus of 59.5%.
-
r OPM: 27.2% vs. our forecast of 28.6% and consensus of 30.0%.
-
[ ] r Net income: NT$1,391m (-16% QoQ, +21% YoY), vs. our forecast of NT$1,649m and consensus of NT$1,811m.
-
r EPS: NT$4.75 vs. our forecast of NT$5.63 and consensus of NT$6.25.
Figure 2
Source: SinoPac, company
| 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot | 2Q26 results snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | 2Q26SP | Act/SP | 2Q26 Con | Act/Con |
| Sales | 7,707 | 7,305 | 7,928 | 9% | 3% | 7,928 | 0% | 7,992 | (1%) |
| Gross profit | 4,565 | 4,317 | 4,753 | 10% | 4% | 4,704 | 1% | 4,753 | 0% |
| Opex | 2,169 | 2,263 | 2,593 | 15% | 20% | 2,434 | 7% | 2,355 | 10% |
| Operating profit | 2,396 | 2,053 | 2,160 | 5% | (10%) | 2,270 | (5%) | 2,398 | (10%) |
| Pretax profit | 1,677 | 2,326 | 2,190 | (6%) | 31% | 2,328 | (6%) | 2,539 | (14%) |
| Tax expense | 460 | 594 | 705 | 19% | 53% | 595 | 18% | 727 | (3%) |
| Net profit | 1,153 | 1,647 | 1,391 | (16%) | 21% | 1,649 | (16%) | 1,811 | (23%) |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.93 | 5.62 | 4.75 | (16%) | 21% | 5.63 | (16%) | 6.25 | (24%) |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 59.2% | 59.1% | 60.0% | 0.9 ppt | 0.7 ppt | 59.3% | 0.6 ppt | 59.5% | 0.5 ppt |
| Opex ratio | 28.1% | 31.0% | 32.7% | 1.7 ppt | 4.6 ppt | 30.7% | 2 ppt | 29.5% | 3.2 ppt |
| OP margin | 31.1% | 28.1% | 27.2% | -0.9 ppt | -3.8 ppt | 28.6% | -1.4 ppt | 30.0% | -2.8 ppt |
| Tax rate | 27.4% | 25.6% | 32.2% | 6.6 ppt | 4.8 ppt | 25.6% | 6.6 ppt | 28.6% | 3.5 ppt |
| Net margin | 15.0% | 22.5% | 17.5% | -5 ppt | 2.6 ppt | 20.8% | -3.3 ppt | 22.7% | -5.1 ppt |
Source: SinoPac, Bloomberg
American sales YoY vs Market (%)
Nien Made custom value (brand, channel, and service)
CLSA
Remerch merited by Gil SinoPac
(YoY)
30%
0%
-2096
Source: SinoPac, company
(YoY)
90%
Figure 4
American sales YoY vs Market (%)
Source: SinoPac, company
Figure 5
European (Netherlands) sales YoY vs Market (%)
Source: SinoPac, company
European (Netherlands) sales YoY vs Market (%)
Nien Made's Custom Value (Brand, Channel, And Service)
American Sales YoY vs Market (%)
-NM American Sales (YoY)
American Window Covering Demand Indicator (YoY)
Figure 3
Source: SinoPac, company
European (Netherlands) Sales YoY vs Market (%)
•NM Netherlands Sales (YoY)
Netherlands Window Covering Demand Indicator (YoY)
Revenue contribution from custom window coverings continues to increase
America contributes roughly 70% of total sales
Sales in the America region down by -1.8% YoY (1H26)
Figure 6
Source: SinoPac
Figure 7
Sales by region (%)
Source: SinoPac
Figure 8
Source: SinoPac
Sales in the European region up by +13.9% YoY (1H26)
Figure 9
Source: SinoPac
Figure 10
Nein Made group headcount
Source: SinoPac
Figure 11
| Nien Made global production locations | |
|---|---|
| Product | Location |
| Custom Window Coverings | China, Mexico, and Vietnam |
| Stock Window Coverings | Cambodia |
| Light Assembly Factory | US |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 12
| P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly | P&L - quarterly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26SP | 4Q26SP | 1Q27SP | 2Q27SP | 3Q27SP | 4Q27SP |
| Sales | 7,273 | 7,707 | 7,317 | 7,672 | 7,305 | 7,928 | 8,301 | 8,573 | 7,893 | 8,530 | 8,986 | 9,067 |
| Gross profit | 4,234 | 4,565 | 4,297 | 4,527 | 4,317 | 4,753 | 5,005 | 5,186 | 4,752 | 5,147 | 5,420 | 5,474 |
| Opex | 2,154 | 2,169 | 2,163 | 2,220 | 2,263 | 2,593 | 2,433 | 2,548 | 2,322 | 2,482 | 2,580 | 2,677 |
| Operating profit | 2,080 | 2,396 | 2,133 | 2,308 | 2,053 | 2,160 | 2,572 | 2,638 | 2,430 | 2,665 | 2,840 | 2,798 |
| Pretax profit | 2,356 | 1,677 | 2,376 | 2,806 | 2,326 | 2,190 | 2,790 | 2,980 | 2,556 | 2,791 | 2,967 | 2,924 |
| Tax expense | 505 | 460 | 581 | 733 | 594 | 705 | 714 | 763 | 654 | 715 | 759 | 749 |
| Net profit | 1,778 | 1,153 | 1,707 | 1,964 | 1,647 | 1,391 | 1,981 | 2,122 | 1,807 | 1,982 | 2,113 | 2,081 |
| EPS (NT$) | 6.07 | 3.93 | 5.82 | 6.70 | 5.62 | 4.75 | 6.76 | 7.24 | 6.17 | 6.76 | 7.21 | 7.10 |
| Growth | ||||||||||||
| Sales QoQ | (9%) | 6% | (5%) | 5% | (5%) | 9% | 5% | 3% | (8%) | 8% | 5% | 1% |
| Sales YoY | 15% | 4% | (7%) | (3%) | 0% | 3% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% |
| EPS YoY | 24% | (35%) | (4%) | 2% | (7%) | 21% | 16% | 8% | 10% | 43% | 7% | (2%) |
| Margin | ||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 58.2% | 59.2% | 58.7% | 59.0% | 59.1% | 60.0% | 60.3% | 60.5% | 60.2% | 60.3% | 60.3% | 60.4% |
| Opex | 29.6% | 28.1% | 29.6% | 28.9% | 31.0% | 32.7% | 29.3% | 29.7% | 29.4% | 29.1% | 28.7% | 29.5% |
| OP margin | 28.6% | 31.1% | 29.2% | 30.1% | 28.1% | 27.2% | 31.0% | 30.8% | 30.8% | 31.2% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| Net margin | 24.5% | 15.0% | 23.3% | 25.6% | 22.5% | 17.5% | 23.9% | 24.8% | 22.9% | 23.2% | 23.5% | 22.9% |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 13
| P&L - annual | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Sales | 29,535 | 29,969 | 32,107 | 34,476 | 36,443 |
| Gross profit | 16,905 | 17,623 | 19,261 | 20,793 | 22,013 |
| Opex | 8,537 | 8,706 | 9,836 | 10,060 | 10,408 |
| Operating profit | 8,368 | 8,917 | 9,424 | 10,732 | 11,604 |
| Pretax profit | 9,477 | 9,215 | 10,286 | 11,238 | 12,110 |
| Tax expense | 2,359 | 2,279 | 2,777 | 2,877 | 3,100 |
| Net profit | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| EPS (NT$) | 23.56 | 22.53 | 24.37 | 27.24 | 29.46 |
| Growth | |||||
| Sales YoY | 10% | 1% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| EPS YoY | 26% | (4%) | 8% | 12% | 8% |
| Margin | |||||
| Gross margin | 57.2% | 58.8% | 60.0% | 60.3% | 60.4% |
| Opex | 28.9% | 29.0% | 30.6% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| OP margin | 28.3% | 29.8% | 29.4% | 31.1% | 31.8% |
| Net margin | 23.4% | 22.0% | 22.2% | 23.2% | 23.7% |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 14
Source: SinoPac
| Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly | Forecast revisions - quarterly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q26SP | 2Q26SP | 4Q26SP | 4Q26SP | 4Q26SP | 4Q26SP | ||||
| (NT$m) | old | new | % ch | old | new | % ch | old | new | % ch |
| Sales | 7,928 | 7,928 | 0% | 8,055 | 8,301 | 3% | 8,308 | 8,573 | 3% |
| Gross profit | 4,704 | 4,753 | 1% | 4,818 | 5,005 | 4% | 4,986 | 5,186 | 4% |
| Opex | 2,434 | 2,593 | 7% | 2,361 | 2,433 | 3% | 2,469 | 2,548 | 3% |
| Operating profit | 2,270 | 2,160 | (5%) | 2,458 | 2,572 | 5% | 2,517 | 2,638 | 5% |
| Pretax profit | 2,328 | 2,190 | (6%) | 2,676 | 2,790 | 4% | 2,858 | 2,980 | 4% |
| Tax expense | 595 | 705 | 18% | 684 | 714 | 4% | 730 | 763 | 4% |
| Net profit | 1,649 | 1,391 | (16%) | 1,908 | 1,981 | 4% | 2,044 | 2,122 | 4% |
| EPS (NT$) | 5.63 | 4.75 | (16%) | 6.51 | 6.76 | 4% | 6.97 | 7.24 | 4% |
| Margin | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 59.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 ppt | 59.8% | 60.3% | 0.5 ppt | 60.0% | 60.5% | 0.5 ppt |
| OPEX ratio | 30.7% | 32.7% | 2 ppt | 29.3% | 29.3% | 0 ppt | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0 ppt |
| Operating margin | 28.6% | 27.2% | -1.4 ppt | 30.5% | 31.0% | 0.5 ppt | 30.3% | 30.8% | 0.5 ppt |
| Tax rate | 25.6% | 32.2% | 6.6 ppt | 25.6% | 25.6% | 0 ppt | 25.6% | 25.6% | 0 ppt |
| Net margin | 20.8% | 17.5% | -3.3 ppt | 23.7% | 23.9% | 0.2 ppt | 24.6% | 24.8% | 0.2 ppt |
Figure 15
| Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual | Forecast revisions - annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026SP | 2026SP | 2028SP | 2028SP | 2028SP | 2028SP | ||||
| (NT$m) | old | new | % ch | old | new | % ch | old | new | % ch |
| Sales | 31,596 | 32,107 | 2% | 34,043 | 34,476 | 1% | 35,981 | 36,443 | 1% |
| Gross profit | 18,825 | 19,261 | 2% | 20,376 | 20,793 | 2% | 21,646 | 22,013 | 2% |
| Opex | 9,526 | 9,836 | 3% | 9,934 | 10,060 | 1% | 10,276 | 10,408 | 1% |
| Operating profit | 9,298 | 9,424 | 1% | 10,442 | 10,732 | 3% | 11,371 | 11,604 | 2% |
| Pretax profit | 10,188 | 10,286 | 1% | 10,916 | 11,238 | 3% | 11,844 | 12,110 | 2% |
| Tax expense | 2,604 | 2,777 | 7% | 2,790 | 2,877 | 3% | 3,027 | 3,100 | 2% |
| Net profit | 7,247 | 7,142 | (1%) | 7,789 | 7,983 | 2% | 8,480 | 8,632 | 2% |
| EPS (NT$) | 24.73 | 24.37 | (1%) | 26.58 | 27.24 | 2% | 28.94 | 29.46 | 2% |
| Margin | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 59.6% | 60.0% | 0.4 ppt | 59.9% | 60.3% | 0.5 ppt | 60.2% | 60.4% | 0.2 ppt |
| OPEX ratio | 30.2% | 30.6% | 0.5 ppt | 29.2% | 29.2% | 0 ppt | 28.6% | 28.6% | 0 ppt |
| Operating margin | 29.4% | 29.4% | -0.1 ppt | 30.7% | 31.1% | 0.5 ppt | 31.6% | 31.8% | 0.2 ppt |
| Tax rate | 25.6% | 27.0% | 1.4 ppt | 25.6% | 25.6% | 0 ppt | 25.6% | 25.6% | 0 ppt |
| Net margin | 22.9% | 22.2% | -0.7 ppt | 22.9% | 23.2% | 0.3 ppt | 23.6% | 23.7% | 0.1 ppt |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 16
| SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly | SP vs consensus - quarterly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | ||||
| (NT$m) | SinoPac | Con | % Diff | SinoPac | Con | % Diff | SinoPac | Con | % Diff |
| Sales | 7,928 | 7,992 | (1%) | 8,301 | 8,045 | 3% | 8,573 | 8,268 | 4% |
| Gross profit | 4,753 | 4,753 | 0% | 5,005 | 4,798 | 4% | 5,186 | 4,934 | 5% |
| Opex | 2,593 | 2,355 | 10% | 2,433 | 2,338 | 4% | 2,548 | 2,362 | 8% |
| Operating profit | 2,160 | 2,398 | (10%) | 2,572 | 2,460 | 5% | 2,638 | 2,572 | 3% |
| Pretax profit | 2,190 | 2,539 | (14%) | 2,790 | 2,696 | 4% | 2,980 | 2,765 | 8% |
| Tax expense | 705 | 727 | (3%) | 714 | 743 | (4%) | 763 | 780 | (2%) |
| Net profit | 1,391 | 1,811 | (23%) | 1,981 | 1,953 | 1% | 2,122 | 1,985 | 7% |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.75 | 6.25 | (24%) | 6.76 | 6.68 | 1% | 7.24 | 6.78 | 7% |
| Margin | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 60.0% | 59.5% | 0.5 ppt | 60.3% | 59.6% | 0.7 ppt | 60.5% | 59.7% | 0.8 ppt |
| Operating margin | 27.2% | 30.0% | -2.8 ppt | 31.0% | 30.6% | 0.4 ppt | 30.8% | 31.1% | -0.3 ppt |
| Tax rate | 32.2% | 28.6% | 3.5 ppt | 25.6% | 27.6% | -2 ppt | 25.6% | 28.2% | -2.6 ppt |
| Net margin | 17.5% | 22.7% | -5.1 ppt | 23.9% | 24.3% | -0.4 ppt | 24.8% | 24.0% | 0.7 ppt |
Source: SinoPac, Bloomberg
Figure 17
| SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual | SP vs consensus - annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026 | 2028 | 2028 | 2028 | 2028 | ||||
| (NT$m) | SinoPac | Con | % Diff | SinoPac | Con | % Diff | SinoPac | Con | % Diff |
| Sales | 32,107 | 31,680 | 1% | 34,476 | 33,779 | 2% | 36,443 | 35,950 | 1% |
| Gross profit | 19,261 | 18,835 | 2% | 20,793 | 20,197 | 3% | 22,013 | 21,563 | 2% |
| Opex | 9,836 | 9,243 | 6% | 10,060 | 9,747 | 3% | 10,408 | 10,045 | 4% |
| Operating profit | 9,424 | 9,592 | (2%) | 10,732 | 10,451 | 3% | 11,604 | 11,518 | 1% |
| Pretax profit | 10,286 | 10,379 | (1%) | 11,238 | 11,001 | 2% | 12,110 | 11,904 | 2% |
| Tax expense | 2,777 | 2,957 | (6%) | 2,877 | 3,082 | (7%) | 3,100 | 3,345 | (7%) |
| Net profit | 7,142 | 7,422 | (4%) | 7,983 | 7,919 | 1% | 8,632 | 8,559 | 1% |
| EPS (NT$) | 24.37 | 25.46 | (4%) | 27.24 | 27.03 | 1% | 29.46 | 29.21 | 1% |
| Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin |
| Gross margin | 60.0% | 59.5% | 0.5 ppt | 60.3% | 59.8% | 0.5 ppt | 60.4% | 60.0% | 0.4 ppt |
| Operating margin | 29.4% | 30.3% | -0.9 ppt | 31.1% | 30.9% | 0.2 ppt | 31.8% | 32.0% | -0.2 ppt |
| Tax rate | 27.0% | 28.5% | -1.5 ppt | 25.6% | 28.0% | -2.4 ppt | 25.6% | 28.1% | -2.5 ppt |
| Net margin | 22.2% | 23.4% | -1.2 ppt | 23.2% | 23.4% | -0.3 ppt | 23.7% | 23.8% | -0.1 ppt |
Source: SinoPac, Bloomberg
Currently trades at 15.0x forward 12M PE
Foreign investors hold about 40%
Source: SinoPac, Bloomberg
Figure 20
| Target price based) | change (PE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | 16 | 27SP | 26.58 | 425 |
| New | 18 | 27SP | 27.24 | 490 |
Source: SinoPac
Investment thesis
We believe ongoing market share gains and price increases will help offset macro headwinds. Margins should also improve through capacity expansion and deeper vertical integration. In addition, new motorised cellular shades are expected to enhance consumer appeal while offering safer, more convenient use. Outside the US, Japan, Europe, and Australia are showing strong momentum supported by expansion through D2C channels.
Catalysts
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act signed into law; IEEPA tariff refunds; lower mortgage rates; capacity expansion in Mexico and Vietnam to better serve clients.
Valuation details
Our target price is based on 18x 2027SP EPS. 18x is approximately +1sd above its five-year average forward PE. We believe that an 18x PE best reflects the recent 2Q26 results and company guidance.
Investment risks
Risks include: 1) a US housing market decline as Nien Made's revenue growth is highly correlated with new housing starts, existing home sales, and remodeling spending growth; 2) unfavourable FX movements given 70% of the company's revenue is generated in the US and the dollar is its main trading currency; 3) more raw material price fluctuations.
Detailed financials
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28,951 | 26,913 | 29,535 | 29,969 | 32,107 | 34,476 | 36,443 |
| Cogs (ex-D&A) | (12,096) | (11,033) | (11,574) | (11,287) | (11,690) | (12,408) | (13,038) |
| Gross Profit (ex-D&A) | 16,855 | 15,881 | 17,961 | 18,682 | 20,417 | 22,068 | 23,405 |
| Research & development costs | (205) | (182) | (172) | (155) | (355) | (245) | (259) |
| Selling & marketing expenses | (5,454) | (4,775) | (5,109) | (5,131) | (5,734) | (6,312) | (6,376) |
| Other SG&A | (2,870) | (3,005) | (3,257) | (3,420) | (3,748) | (3,503) | (3,773) |
| Other Op Expenses ex-D&A | - | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Op Ebitda | 8,327 | 7,919 | 9,423 | 9,976 | 10,581 | 12,008 | 12,997 |
| Depreciation/amortisation | (959) | (949) | (1,056) | (1,059) | (1,156) | (1,276) | (1,393) |
| Op Ebit | 7,368 | 6,970 | 8,368 | 8,917 | 9,424 | 10,732 | 11,604 |
| Interest income | 71 | 448 | 631 | 577 | 529 | 540 | 540 |
| Interest expense | (9) | (5) | (13) | (22) | (34) | (34) | (34) |
| Net interest inc/(exp) | 61 | 443 | 619 | 555 | 495 | 506 | 506 |
| Associates/investments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Forex/other income | 632 | 7 | 600 | (431) | 358 | - | - |
| Asset sales/other cash items | 389 | 613 | (109) | 175 | 9 | - | - |
| Provisions/other non-cash items | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Asset revaluation/Exceptional items | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Profit before tax | 8,450 | 8,033 | 9,477 | 9,215 | 10,286 | 11,238 | 12,110 |
| Taxation | (2,375) | (2,383) | (2,359) | (2,279) | (2,777) | (2,877) | (3,100) |
| Profit after tax | 6,075 | 5,650 | 7,118 | 6,936 | 7,510 | 8,361 | 9,010 |
| Preference dividends | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Profit for period | 6,075 | 5,650 | 7,118 | 6,936 | 7,510 | 8,361 | 9,010 |
| Minority interest | 99 | (162) | (215) | (335) | (368) | (378) | (378) |
| Net profit | 6,173 | 5,488 | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| Extraordinaries/others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Profit avail to ordinary shares | 6,173 | 5,488 | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| Dividends | (3,223) | (3,223) | (3,516) | (4,249) | (4,688) | (5,128) | (5,567) |
| Retained profit | 2,950 | 2,264 | 3,387 | 2,352 | 2,454 | 2,855 | 3,064 |
| Adjusted profit | 6,173 | 5,488 | 6,903 | 6,601 | 7,142 | 7,983 | 8,632 |
| EPS (NT$) | 21.1 | 18.7 | 23.6 | 22.5 | 24.4 | 27.2 | 29.5 |
| Adj EPS [pre excep] (NT$) | 21.1 | 18.7 | 23.6 | 22.5 | 24.4 | 27.2 | 29.5 |
| Core EPS (NT$) | 21.1 | 18.7 | 23.6 | 22.5 | 24.4 | 27.2 | 29.5 |
| DPS (NT$) | 11.0 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 17.5 | 19.0 | 20.5 |
Profit & loss ratios
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||||
| Revenue growth (% YoY) | (0.3) | (7.0) | 9.7 | 1.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.7 |
| Ebitda growth (% YoY) | (3.4) | (4.9) | 19.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 13.5 | 8.2 |
| Ebit growth (% YoY) | (5.0) | (5.4) | 20.1 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 13.9 | 8.1 |
| Net profit growth (%) | 16.0 | (11.1) | 25.8 | (4.4) | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| EPS growth (% YoY) | 16.0 | (11.1) | 25.8 | (4.4) | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| Adj EPS growth (% YoY) | 16.0 | (11.1) | 25.8 | (4.4) | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| DPS growth (% YoY) | 0.0 | 9.1 | 20.8 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 7.9 |
| Core EPS growth (% YoY) | 16.0 | (11.1) | 25.8 | (4.4) | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin (%) | 58.2 | 59.0 | 60.8 | 62.3 | 63.6 | 64.0 | 64.2 |
| Ebitda margin (%) | 28.8 | 29.4 | 31.9 | 33.3 | 33.0 | 34.8 | 35.7 |
| Ebit margin (%) | 25.4 | 25.9 | 28.3 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 31.1 | 31.8 |
| Net profit margin (%) | 21.3 | 20.4 | 23.4 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 23.2 | 23.7 |
| Core profit margin | 21.3 | 20.4 | 23.4 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 23.2 | 23.7 |
| Op cashflow margin | 23.9 | 25.6 | 28.9 | 23.5 | 23.8 | 26.7 | 27.5 |
| Returns (%) | |||||||
| ROE (%) | 31.7 | 24.1 | 26.8 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 23.6 | 23.4 |
| ROA (%) | 17.7 | 15.5 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 16.6 | 18.0 | 17.9 |
| ROIC (%) | 39.3 | 34.2 | 42.2 | 40.3 | 36.7 | 38.6 | 39.0 |
| ROCE (%) | 64.9 | 58.0 | 67.9 | 64.5 | 60.1 | 62.0 | 63.1 |
| Other key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Effective tax rate (%) | 28.1 | 29.7 | 24.9 | 24.7 | 27.0 | 25.6 | 25.6 |
| Ebitda/net int exp (x) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Exceptional or extraord. inc/PBT (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividend payout (%) | 52.2 | 64.1 | 61.5 | 71.0 | 71.8 | 69.7 | 69.6 |
Source: SinoPac
Balance sheet (NT$m)
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 9,373 | 12,820 | 15,857 | 16,872 | 16,979 | 18,998 | 21,419 |
| Accounts receivable | 2,402 | 2,624 | 2,865 | 3,045 | 3,958 | 4,251 | 4,493 |
| Inventories | 5,718 | 4,104 | 4,066 | 3,678 | 3,872 | 4,124 | 4,349 |
| Other current assets | 1,742 | 1,671 | 1,773 | 1,909 | 1,947 | 1,986 | 2,025 |
| Current assets | 19,236 | 21,219 | 24,560 | 25,504 | 26,756 | 29,358 | 32,286 |
| Fixed assets | 8,588 | 9,046 | 10,588 | 11,494 | 12,558 | 13,282 | 13,890 |
| Investments | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other non-current assets | 2,719 | 2,336 | 2,700 | 3,017 | 3,319 | 3,651 | 4,016 |
| Total assets | 30,554 | 32,611 | 37,858 | 40,025 | 42,643 | 46,301 | 50,202 |
| Short term loans/OD | - | - | 402 | 571 | - | - | - |
| Accounts payable | 848 | 804 | 963 | 749 | 780 | 831 | 876 |
| Accrued expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Taxes payable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other current liabs | 5,727 | 4,917 | 5,322 | 4,824 | 4,920 | 5,019 | 5,119 |
| Current liabilities | 6,575 | 5,721 | 6,687 | 6,144 | 5,700 | 5,849 | 5,995 |
| Long-term debt/leases/other | - | - | 402 | 530 | 477 | 430 | 387 |
| Convertible bonds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Provisions/other LT liabs | 2,196 | 2,460 | 2,689 | 2,941 | 3,235 | 3,559 | 3,915 |
| Total liabilities | 8,771 | 8,181 | 9,777 | 9,616 | 9,413 | 9,838 | 10,297 |
| Share capital | 2,930 | 2,930 | 2,930 | 2,930 | 2,930 | 2,930 | 2,930 |
| Retained earnings | 11,274 | 12,928 | 15,744 | 17,405 | 19,858 | 22,713 | 25,777 |
| Reserves/others | 7,279 | 8,115 | 8,937 | 9,669 | 9,669 | 9,669 | 9,669 |
| Shareholder funds | 21,483 | 23,973 | 27,611 | 30,004 | 32,457 | 35,312 | 38,376 |
| Minorities/other equity | 300 | 457 | 470 | 405 | 773 | 1,151 | 1,529 |
| Total equity | 21,783 | 24,430 | 28,081 | 30,409 | 33,230 | 36,463 | 39,906 |
| Total liabs & equity | 30,554 | 32,611 | 37,858 | 40,025 | 42,643 | 46,301 | 50,202 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 804 | 1,101 | 477 | 430 | 387 |
| Net debt | (9,373) | (12,820) | (15,053) | (15,771) | (16,502) | (18,568) | (21,032) |
| Adjusted EV | 104,470 | 101,618 | 98,942 | 97,049 | 96,685 | 94,998 | 92,911 |
| BVPS (NT$) | 73.3 | 81.8 | 94.2 | 102.4 | 110.8 | 120.5 | 131.0 |
Balance sheet ratios
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key ratios | |||||||
| Current ratio (x) | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Growth in total assets (% YoY) | 3.9 | 6.7 | 16.1 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
| Growth in capital employed (% YoY) | 20.6 | (6.4) | 12.2 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 5.5 |
| Net debt to operating cashflow (x) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gross debt to operating cashflow (x) | - | - | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gross debt to Ebitda (x) | - | - | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt/Ebitda (x) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gearing | |||||||
| Net debt/equity (%) | (43.0) | (52.5) | (53.6) | (51.9) | (49.7) | (50.9) | (52.7) |
| Gross debt/equity (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Interest cover (x) | 803.5 | 1,451.3 | 706.9 | 433.1 | 289.3 | 327.6 | 352.9 |
| Debt cover (x) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 16.0 | 21.4 | 25.9 |
| Net cash per share (NT$) | 32.0 | 43.8 | 51.4 | 53.8 | 56.3 | 63.4 | 71.8 |
| Working capital analysis | |||||||
| Inventory days | 144.6 | 149.6 | 118.1 | 114.5 | 107.3 | 106.6 | 107.2 |
| Debtor days | 34.0 | 34.1 | 33.9 | 36.0 | 39.8 | 43.5 | 43.8 |
| Creditor days | 23.0 | 25.2 | 25.5 | 25.3 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 21.6 |
| Working capital/Sales (%) | 11.4 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 13.4 |
| Capital employed analysis | |||||||
| Sales/Capital employed (%) | 233.3 | 231.8 | 226.7 | 204.7 | 191.9 | 192.7 | 193.1 |
| EV/Capital employed (%) | 841.8 | 875.3 | 759.4 | 663.0 | 578.0 | 530.9 | 492.3 |
| Working capital/Capital employed (%) | 26.5 | 23.1 | 18.6 | 20.9 | 24.4 | 25.2 | 25.8 |
| Fixed capital/Capital employed (%) | 69.2 | 77.9 | 81.3 | 78.5 | 75.1 | 74.2 | 73.6 |
| Other ratios (%) | |||||||
| PB (x) | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| EV/Ebitda (x) | 12.5 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 7.1 |
| EV/OCF (x) | 15.1 | 14.8 | 11.6 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 |
| EV/FCF (x) | 19.5 | 16.8 | 14.8 | 17.6 | 17.8 | 13.2 | 11.6 |
| EV/Sales (x) | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Capex/depreciation (%) | 163.1 | 86.1 | 178.0 | 145.5 | 192.0 | 156.8 | 143.6 |
Source: SinoPac
Cashflow (NT$m)
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating profit | 7,368 | 6,970 | 8,368 | 8,917 | 9,424 | 10,732 | 11,604 |
| Operating adjustments | (1,195) | (1,482) | (1,465) | (2,315) | (2,283) | (2,750) | (2,973) |
| Depreciation/amortisation | 959 | 949 | 1,056 | 1,059 | 1,156 | 1,276 | 1,393 |
| Working capital changes | 299 | 1,325 | 124 | (452) | (1,077) | (494) | (422) |
| Interest paid / other financial expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tax paid | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other non-cash operating items | (506) | (879) | 464 | (157) | 419 | 429 | 430 |
| Net operating cashflow | 6,924 | 6,882 | 8,547 | 7,052 | 7,640 | 9,194 | 10,032 |
| Capital expenditure | (1,564) | (817) | (1,879) | (1,541) | (2,221) | (2,000) | (2,000) |
| Free cashflow | 5,360 | 6,065 | 6,668 | 5,511 | 5,420 | 7,194 | 8,032 |
| Acq/inv/disposals | (214) | 698 | (599) | (72) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Int, invt & associate div | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net investing cashflow | (1,778) | (119) | (2,478) | (1,613) | (2,221) | (2,000) | (2,000) |
| Increase in loans | (2,817) | 0 | 834 | 333 | (624) | (48) | (43) |
| Dividends | (3,223) | (3,223) | (3,516) | (4,249) | (4,688) | (5,128) | (5,567) |
| Net equity raised/others | (124) | (123) | (331) | (570) | 0 | - | - |
| Net financing cashflow | (6,165) | (3,346) | (3,014) | (4,486) | (5,312) | (5,176) | (5,610) |
| Incr/(decr) in net cash | (1,019) | 3,417 | 3,055 | 953 | 107 | 2,018 | 2,422 |
| Exch rate movements | (32) | 30 | (18) | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Opening cash | 10,424 | 9,373 | 12,820 | 15,857 | 16,872 | 16,979 | 18,998 |
| Closing cash | 9,373 | 12,820 | 15,857 | 16,872 | 16,979 | 18,998 | 21,419 |
| OCF PS (NT$) | 23.6 | 23.5 | 29.2 | 24.1 | 26.1 | 31.4 | 34.2 |
| FCF PS (NT$) | 18.3 | 20.7 | 22.8 | 18.8 | 18.5 | 24.5 | 27.4 |
Cashflow ratio analysis
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||||
| Op cashflow growth (% YoY) | 14.6 | (0.6) | 24.2 | (17.5) | 8.3 | 20.3 | 9.1 |
| FCF growth (% YoY) | 7.4 | 13.1 | 10.0 | (17.4) | (1.7) | 32.7 | 11.7 |
| Capex growth (%) | 48.9 | (47.8) | 130.0 | (18.0) | 44.1 | (9.9) | 0.0 |
| Other key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Capex/sales (%) | 5.4 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Capex/op cashflow (%) | 22.6 | 11.9 | 22.0 | 21.9 | 29.1 | 21.8 | 19.9 |
| Operating cashflow payout ratio (%) | 46.6 | 51.1 | 49.7 | 66.5 | 67.1 | 60.6 | 59.9 |
| Cashflow payout ratio (%) | 46.6 | 46.8 | 41.1 | 60.2 | 61.4 | 55.8 | 55.5 |
| Free cashflow payout ratio (%) | 60.1 | 53.1 | 52.7 | 77.1 | 86.5 | 71.3 | 69.3 |
DuPont analysis
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebit margin (%) | 25.4 | 25.9 | 28.3 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 31.1 | 31.8 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Interest burden (x) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tax burden (x) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Return on assets (%) | 17.7 | 15.5 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 16.6 | 18 | 17.9 |
| Leverage (x) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| ROE (%) | 31.7 | 24.1 | 26.8 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 23.6 | 23.4 |
EVA ® analysis
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebit adj for tax | 5,297 | 4,902 | 6,285 | 6,712 | 6,881 | 7,985 | 8,634 |
| Average invested capital | 13,490 | 14,328 | 14,883 | 16,638 | 18,761 | 20,699 | 22,111 |
| ROIC (%) | 39.3 | 34.2 | 42.2 | 40.3 | 36.7 | 38.6 | 39.0 |
| Cost of equity (%) | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| Cost of debt (adj for tax) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weighted average cost of capital (%) | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| EVA/IC (%) | 30.4 | 25.3 | 33.3 | 31.4 | 27.8 | 29.7 | 30.1 |
| EVA (NT$m) | 4,096 | 3,627 | 4,960 | 5,230 | 5,210 | 6,142 | 6,665 |
Source: SinoPac
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Companies mentioned
Nien Made (8464 TT - NT$391.00 - OUTPERFORM)