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原始內容
Chroma ATE
3Q26 sales tracking stronger; SLT/power business concerns unfounded
Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 3,050 TWD | Price: 1,975 TWD
July sales booking 35%/39% BofAe/street 3Q26 estimates
Chroma reported July consolidated sales +32% MoM and +175% YoY to NT$5.4bn, representing 35%/39% of BofAe/street estimate of +16%/+5% QoQ, much stronger than seasonal +32%. We believe the strength is led by its power testing equipment shipment to its China customers ' ESS battery capacity builds along with solid demand for semiconductor testing equipment across SLT with continued orders from AMD for GPU system level testing (SLT) equipment and its gains in CPU SLT. The growing contribution from its photonics business could see further strength through 2H26 on initial capacity builds for CPO pilot production and surge in optical transceiver demand.
Market concerns on GMs, SLT and power specs overdone
Investors post Chroma ' s earnings call on July 30 th are concerned on 1) its GMs/OpMs trend into 2H26 following a slight disappointment in 2Q26, we believe the company should see another round of operating leverage as it passes the material inflationary cost to its customers and stronger than feared sales trend in 2H26 as witnessed in July , 2) its SLT opportunity in AMD CPU: we expect Chroma and Hon Precision to be in charge of different SKU of the products which is not reflected in current street expectations, and 3) milder GPU power upgrades extended in 2027: we believe it is premature to confirm the Rubin Ultra upgrade at this stage as the chipset is designed for 3,500W+ peak power and the component supply chain still has 9 months to improve the specs to meet the requirement on the system level design.
Undershoot from unfounded concerns provides good entry
We keep our Buy rating on Chroma with NT$3,050 PO based on 38x 2027 P/E and maintain our ' 26/'27 EPS estimate at NT$46.73/80.05. While the near term sentiment is dragged by the investor concerns on CPO and HVDC (800V) upgrade push out, we would note the timeframe is largely consistent with our view earlier this year and see the current valuation compelling at 25x ' 27 P/E well backed by sales/EPS +59%/+75% CAGR.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | 12.49 | 27.70 | 46.73 | 80.05 | 100.11 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 32.2% | 121.7% | 68.7% | 71.3% | 25.1% |
| Dividend / Share | 7.00 | 10.00 | 20.00 | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 6.60 | 7.01 | 19.61 | 37.48 | 65.86 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 158.09x | 71.29x | 42.27x | 24.67x | 19.73x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.354% | 0.506% | 1.01% | 1.67% | 1.67% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 133.48x | 83.20x | 36.36x | 20.54x | 16.27x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 0.331% | 0.352% | 0.984% | 1.88% | 3.31% |
| * For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 9. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
06 August 2026
Equity
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727 haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3729 mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3726 cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
Stock Data
| Price | 1,975 TWD |
|---|---|
| Price Objective | 3,050 TWD |
| Date Established | 24-Jun-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 488.00 TWD-2,795 |
| TWD | |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 25,999 USD / 425.2 |
| Market Value (mn) | 839,860 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 197.81 USD |
| Free Float | 83.0% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | CRMJF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2360 TT / 2360.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 0% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -15.3% |
iQ profile SM Chroma ATE
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 21,604 | 28,311 | 55,617 | 86,809 | 107,071 |
| Gross Profit | 12,746 | 17,425 | 33,833 | 54,207 | 67,204 |
| Sell General &Admin Expense | (5,065) | (5,671) | (8,057) | (10,104) | (11,865) |
| Operating Profit | 5,482 | 9,197 | 22,055 | 39,646 | 50,197 |
| Net Interest &Other Income | 1,226 | 4,720 | 2,892 | 2,982 | 3,191 |
| Associates | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pretax Income | 6,709 | 13,918 | 24,947 | 42,628 | 53,388 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (1,308) | (1,992) | (4,894) | (8,360) | (10,535) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 421 | 422 | 422 | 422 | 422 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 5,264 | 11,692 | 19,695 | 33,742 | 42,280 |
| Depreciation &Amortization | 775 | 841 | 916 | 1,023 | 1,143 |
| Change in Working Capital | (1,020) | (4,306) | (7,402) | (10,569) | (5,902) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | (235) | (2,969) | (613) | (2,320) | (2,265) |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 4,784 | 5,258 | 12,597 | 21,876 | 35,255 |
| Capital Expenditure | (2,005) | (2,301) | (4,333) | (6,077) | (7,495) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (1,067) | (186) | (1,865) | 0 | 0 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | 1,181 | 3,915 | 2,969 | 2,846 | 2,837 |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (1,891) | 1,428 | (3,229) | (3,231) | (4,658) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (2,807) | (3,828) | (8,184) | (13,787) | (23,619) |
| Cash Flow from Financing | (2,997) | (4,548) | (8,208) | (13,787) | (23,619) |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,779 | 2,957 | 8,264 | 15,799 | 27,761 |
| Net Debt | (1,515) | (4,997) | (7,797) | (12,656) | (19,634) |
| Change in Net Debt | 433 | (2,331) | (1,146) | (4,858) | (6,979) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant &Equipment | 6,956 | 7,232 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 12,927 | 13,792 | 24,679 | 29,733 | 36,085 |
| Trade Receivables | 6,070 | 8,925 | 14,435 | 22,172 | 26,140 |
| Cash &Equivalents | 5,040 | 8,314 | 11,152 | 16,010 | 22,989 |
| Other Current Assets | 6,315 | 8,886 | 13,731 | 19,864 | 23,600 |
| Total Assets | 37,308 | 47,150 | 63,997 | 87,779 | 108,814 |
| Long-Term Debt | 2,108 | 3,304 | 3,050 | 3,050 | 3,050 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1,515 | 2,125 | 2,082 | 2,082 | 2,082 |
| Short-Term Debt | 1,417 | 14 | 305 | 305 | 305 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 6,817 | 9,145 | 22,112 | 25,414 | 27,216 |
| Total Liabilities | 11,858 | 14,587 | 27,550 | 30,851 | 32,653 |
| Total Equity | 25,450 | 32,563 | 36,447 | 56,928 | 76,161 |
| Total Equity &Liabilities | 37,308 | 47,150 | 63,997 | 87,779 | 108,814 |
| iQ method SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 15.6% | 23.2% | 44.6% | 61.5% | 56.5% |
| Return On Equity | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Operating Margin | 25.4% | 32.5% | 39.7% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 29.0% | 35.5% | 41.3% | 46.8% | 47.9% |
| iQ method SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 2.7x | 3.0x | 5.1x | 6.4x | 7.0x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 19.5% | 14.3% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.7% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -6.0% | -15.3% | -21.4% | -22.2% | -25.8% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductor Capital Equipment
Company Description
Chroma is a world leading provider of automated test equipment (ATE) and precision measurement solutions with 4,300+ system installed globally. Founded in 1984, the company has built a one of a kind diversified technology portfolio spanning semiconductor testers, power electronics testers, battery formation systems, photonics test instruments.
Investment Rationale
We have a Buy rating on Chroma, in view of its strong technology leadership in the high power testing and complex semiconductor testing equipment. It has a solid position working with Nvidia for more than a decade and is seeing growing traction from AMD and hyperscalers' ASIC for system level testing and metrology tools. Longer term, the company could further expand its addressable market leveraging the technology in its existing product portfolio for co-packaged optics, panel level packaging.
Focus charts and tables
Exhibit 1: Chroma's revenue by segment
AT&S and semiconductor segments will lead the sales growth
| Chroma's revenue (NT$mn) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional power testing | $5,515 | $6,950 | $5,718 | $5,814 | $10,875 | $14,969 |
| Data center related (including infrastructure) | $1,537 | $1,227 | $1,108 | $4,732 | $12,075 | $18,296 |
| Total AT&S sales | $7,052 | $8,177 | $6,826 | $10,546 | $22,950 | $33,266 |
| Semiconductor | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Legacy semiconductor testing | $2,663 | $1,554 | $3,903 | $3,398 | $3,451 | $2,026 |
| AI SLT | $1,010 | $1,020 | $2,268 | $3,080 | $6,100 | $12,165 |
| Metrology for advanced back-end | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,870 | $4,800 | $5,000 |
| Photonics | $850 | $382 | $802 | $1,411 | $4,300 | $11,466 |
| Others (panel level, CPO, etc) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total semiconductor sales | $4,523 | $2,956 | $6,973 | $9,759 | $18,651 | $30,658 |
| Parent company sales | $11,575 | $11,133 | $13,799 | $20,305 | $41,601 | $63,923 |
| Consolidated testing equipment sales | $20,269 | $17,787 | $20,418 | $27,166 | $54,257 | $85,170 |
| MAS / Automation | $830 | $659 | $873 | $884 | $1,210 | $1,458 |
| Materials | $635 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Others | $333 | $230 | $313 | $260 | $313 | $378 |
| Chroma's consolidated sales (NT$mn) | $22,067 | $18,676 | $21,604 | $28,310 | $55,781 | $87,006 |
Source:
BofA Global Research estimates
Exhibit 2: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
Term
Definition
AI
Artificial Intelligence
ASIC
Application Specific Integrated Circuit
CoWoS
Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate
CPU
Central Processing Unit
GM
Gross margin
GPU
Graphic Processing Unit
HPC
High-Performance Computing
IC
Integrated Circuit
OpMs
Operating margins
OSAT
Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly/Testing
TPU
Tensor Processing Unit
WMCM
Wafer-level-multi-chip-module
SLT
System level testing
CPO
Co-packaged optics
Source:
BofA Global Research
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
Chroma ATE (CRMJF)
Our price objective of NT$3,050 on Chroma is based on 38x 2027E P/E, which is at the top of the company's historical trading range of 12-39x. In our view, the valuation multiple is underpinned by
- 1) +70% earnings CAGR in 2025-27E supported by +75% sales CAGR growth and GMs/OpMs expanding, 2) ROE expansion to around 35% in 2025-27E, 3) net cash of around NT$21/share, and 4) free cash flow generation of around NT$15/share per annum across 2025-27E.
Downside risks to our price objective are:
- 1) weaker market demand, especially the cloud AI investment moderation, leading to slower infrastructure builds especially in China and dragging the company's revenue growth for its power testing equipment business and operating leverage
- 2) a more conservative investment cycle from the hyperscalers on further data center deployment due to growing capex could dampen the demand for GPU and ASIC, negatively impacting the testing equipment demand for related chipsets.
- 3) failure to execute on the customized equipment requested by its customers or delay of technology roadmap could lead to an order shift to its competitors.