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報告_BofA_嘉澤3533_20261009

更新 2026-10-12

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原始內容

Lotes

Lighter 3Q26 sales +4% QoQ; improving margins; reiterate Buy, PO to NT$2,245

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 2,245 TWD | Price: 1,915 TWD

Sep sales +5% MoM; lighter 3Q26 sales at +4% QoQ

Lotes posted Sep sales of NT$3.4bn (+5% MoM, +16% YoY). 3Q26 sales of NT$9.9bn (+4% QoQ, +18% YoY) were 11%/3% below BofAe/consensus. We attributed the lighter sales mainly to industry-wise key component shortage (e.g. memory, CPU, PCB), which likely capped the demand in general server and PC. While sales mix by segment is yet to be disclosed, we believe server should remain the biggest segment (BofAe: 55%) in 3Q26, vs. 54%/40% in 2Q26/3Q25. We now project 3Q26 GM at 45.7%, similar to 45.5% in 2Q26, vs. 51.2% in 3Q25, mainly due to higher raw material cost.

Gradually improving margins; new platform from '27

We project 4Q26 sales +4% QoQ (+12% YoY) amid likely fewer working days in Oct/Dec and market demand push out due to component shortage. Yet, we believe Lotes' quarterly GM should gradually improve with new CPU platform launches in early 2027 and more new products. We project 2027/28E GM at 49.0%/49.9%, considering potential margin dilution from QD (BofAe: 1.4%/3.5%/5.0% of 2026/27/28E sales).

PO to NT$2,245; reiterate Buy; cost pressure fully aware

We cut 2026-28E EPS by 9-18% to reflect 3Q26 preliminary sales, more conservative margin assumptions under material cost pressure, and higher share count (+1.3%) for new CB (total NT$300mn) and fund-raising plan (maximum 1.3mn shares). We cut PO to NT$2,245 (20x 2027E EPS) from NT$2,800 (was 22x) with valuation base unchanged but a lower P/E multiple. We lower P/E multiple to 20x (2SD above historical average) on industry-wise component tightness, which may partially cap CPU server market demand. In our view, Lotes' near-term margin pressure has been fully reflected as its share price corrected 15% in 3Q26, vs. TAIEX +4%. We reiterate our Buy rating on Lotes as a clear CPU server beneficiary to capture still robust market demand (see Vivek Arya's 15 Sep note), with attractive valuation under 24%/36% sales/EPS CAGR in 2026-28.

Estimates (Dec) (NT$) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 9,277 7,866 8,936 12,748 16,550
EPS 82.77 70.17 79.20 112.26 145.74
EPS Change (YoY) 63.4% -15.2% 12.9% 41.8% 29.8%
Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) 80.50 112.18 136.86
Dividend / Share 41.50 35.00 39.60 56.13 72.87
Free Cash Flow / Share 56.29 31.68 70.75 78.99 110.66
Valuation (Dec)
P/E 23.14x 27.29x 24.18x 17.06x 13.14x
Dividend Yield 2.17% 1.83% 2.07% 2.93% 3.81%
EV / EBITDA* 16.14x 15.60x 15.10x 10.82x 8.64x
Free Cash Flow Yield* 2.93% 1.65% 3.70% 4.16% 5.83%
* For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 7.

This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.

>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 5. Price

09 October 2026

Equity

Key Changes (NT$) Previous Current
Price Obj. 2,800.00 2,245.00
2026E EPS 96.64 79.20
2027E EPS 127.27 112.26
2028E EPS 160.10 145.74
2026E EBITDA (m) 16,258.2 13,390.2
2027E EBITDA (m) 20,846.5 18,688.1
2028E EBITDA (m) 25,411.6 23,392.1

Doris Kao >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3722

doris.kao@bofa.com

Robert Cheng >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3731 robert.cheng@bofa.com

Katherine Zhu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 3374

kexin.zhu@bofa.com

Carol Hu >>

Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3721

carol.hu@bofa.com

Stock Data
Price 1,915 TWD
Price Objective 2,245 TWD
Date Established 9-Oct-2026
Investment Opinion C-1-7
52-Week Range 1,140 TWD-2,955 TWD
Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 6,774 USD / 112.5
Market Value (mn) 215,504 TWD
Average Daily Value (mn) 77.45 USD
Free Float 80.0%
BofA Ticker / Exchange ZYZTF / TAI
Bloomberg / Reuters 3533 TT / 3533.TW
ROE (2026E) 21.8%
Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) -30.4%

Acronyms, see page 4

iQprofile SM Lotes

Key Income Statement Data (Dec) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
(NT$ Millions)
Sales 30,089 33,783 39,184 49,355 60,589
Gross Profit 15,769 17,334 18,318 24,179 30,237
Sell General & Admin Expense (2,794) (3,486) (3,975) (4,292) (4,728)
Operating Profit 10,245 10,344 10,285 15,607 20,446
Net Interest & Other Income 1,624 (154) 1,072 658 658
Associates NA NA NA NA NA
Pretax Income 11,869 10,191 11,357 16,265 21,103
Tax (expense) / Benefit (2,488) (2,244) (2,347) (3,436) (4,473)
Net Income (Adjusted) 9,277 7,866 8,936 12,748 16,550
Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 112 112 113 114 114
Key Cash Flow Statement Data
Net Income 9,277 7,866 8,936 12,748 16,550
Depreciation & Amortization 2,279 2,610 3,105 3,081 2,947
Change in Working Capital (2,775) (1,664) (1,058) (4,359) (4,430)
Deferred Taxation Charge NA NA NA NA NA
Other Adjustments, Net 1,277 (284) 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Operations 10,058 8,528 10,983 11,471 15,066
Capital Expenditure (3,749) (4,976) (3,000) (2,500) (2,500)
(Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) (938) (881) 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Investing (4,687) (5,857) (3,000) (2,500) (2,500)
Shares Issue / (Repurchase) 0 0 0 0 0
Cost of Dividends Paid (3,012) (4,803) (3,924) (4,468) (6,374)
Cash Flow from Financing (322) (8,844) (3,924) (4,468) (6,374)
Free Cash Flow 6,309 3,552 7,983 8,971 12,566
Net Debt (14,894) (12,275) (16,335) (20,837) (27,029)
Change in Net Debt (5,526) 6,159 (4,060) (4,503) (6,192)
Key Balance Sheet Data
Property, Plant & Equipment 10,990 13,429 13,324 12,743 12,297
Other Non-Current Assets 3,459 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770
Trade Receivables 12,638 14,182 15,021 19,255 23,432
Cash & Equivalents 18,659 12,500 16,560 21,062 27,254
Other Current Assets 4,465 6,552 6,862 7,985 9,086
Total Assets 50,211 50,433 55,536 64,816 75,839
Long-Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1,069 1,013 1,013 1,013 1,013
Short-Term Debt 3,765 225 225 225 225
Other Current Liabilities 7,417 8,780 8,871 9,870 10,717
Total Liabilities 12,251 10,018 10,109 11,108 11,956
Total Equity 37,960 40,415 45,427 53,708 63,883
Total Equity & Liabilities 50,211 50,433 55,536 64,816 75,839
iQmethod SM - Bus Performance*
Return On Capital Employed 22.6% 19.8% 18.9% 24.6% 27.2%
Return On Equity 29.1% 21.1% 21.8% 26.8% 29.1%
Operating Margin 34.0% 30.6% 26.2% 31.6% 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 41.6% 38.3% 34.2% 37.9% 38.6%
iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings*
Cash Realization Ratio 1.1x 1.1x 1.2x 0.9x 0.9x
Asset Replacement Ratio 1.7x 2.0x 1.0x 0.8x 0.8x
Tax Rate (Reported) 21.0% 22.0% 20.7% 21.1% 21.2%
Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio -39.2% -30.4% -36.0% -38.8% -42.3%
Interest Cover NM NM NM NM NM

Key Metrics

  • For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 7.

Company Sector

Connectors, Passive Components & Distribution

Company Description

Lotes was founded in Keelung, Taiwan, in 1986, and went publicly listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange in 2007. Lotes is the global top-tier PC/server CPU socket supplier. It also supplies connector/cable/harness for PC, server, auto and industrial. Key end-customers include global PC brands (Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple) and global datacenter hyperscalers (FAMG). Besides headquarter in Taiwan, Lotes has production sites in China (Guangzhou, Suzhou, and Hunan) and Vietnam.

Investment Rationale

We have a Buy rating on Lotes in view of (1) solid CPU server demand outlook, (2) ongoing server/DT CPU platform upgrade to support ASP, (3) double-digit sales/earnings CAGR in 2026-28 with margin improvement in 2027-28, (4) solid balance sheet, and (5) attractive valuation. AI business remains the watch point with potential upside.

Stock Data

Price to Book Value

5.0x

lül

Exhibit 1: We trim our 2026-28E EPS by 9-18%

Earnings revisions summary, 2026-28E

NT$mn BofA 2026E - New BofA 2026E - Old BofA 2026E - Diff (%) BofA 2027E - New BofA 2027E - Old BofA 2027E - Diff (%) BofA 2028E - New BofA 2028E - Old BofA 2028E - Diff (%)
Sales 39,184 42,108 -7% 49,355 51,188 -4% 60,589 61,636 -2%
Gross profit 18,318 21,592 -15% 24,179 27,133 -11% 30,237 32,845 -8%
Operating profit 10,285 13,153 -22% 15,607 17,766 -12% 20,446 22,465 -9%
Pretax profit 11,357 13,890 -18% 16,265 18,347 -11% 21,103 23,045 -8%
Net income 8,936 10,834 -18% 12,748 14,268 -11% 16,550 17,947 -8%
EPS (NT$) 79.20 96.64 -18% 112.26 127.27 -12% 145.74 160.10 -9%
Margin %
Gross margin 46.7% 51.3% 49.0% 53.0% 49.9% 53.3%
Operating margin 26.2% 31.2% 31.6% 34.7% 33.7% 36.4%
Pre-tax margin 29.0% 33.0% 33.0% 35.8% 34.8% 37.4%
Net margin 22.8% 25.7% 25.8% 27.9% 27.3% 29.1%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates

Exhibit 2: Our 2026-27E EPS is 2-4% below consensus while 2028E EPS is 4% above consensus

BofAe vs. consensus, 2026-28E

NT$mn 2026E - BofAe 2026E - Consensus 2026E - Diff (%) 2027E - BofAe 2027E - Consensus 2027E - Diff (%) 2028E - BofAe 2028E - Consensus 2028E - Diff (%)
Sales 39,184 39,887 -2% 49,355 49,638 -1% 60,589 58,506 4%
Gross profit 18,318 18,684 -2% 24,179 24,428 -1% 30,237 29,618 2%
Operating profit 10,285 10,471 -2% 15,607 15,489 1% 20,446 19,590 4%
Pretax profit 11,357 11,699 -3% 16,265 16,295 0% 21,103 20,319 4%
Net income 8,936 9,168 -3% 12,748 12,725 0% 16,550 15,756 5%
EPS (NT$) 79.20 82.40 -4% 112.26 114.37 -2% 145.74 140.29 4%
Margin %
Gross margin 46.7% 46.8% 49.0% 49.2% 49.9% 50.6%
Operating margin 26.2% 26.3% 31.6% 31.2% 33.7% 33.5%
Pre-tax margin 29.0% 29.3% 33.0% 32.8% 34.8% 34.7%
Net margin 22.8% 23.0% 25.8% 25.6% 27.3% 26.9%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg consensus

Exhibit 3: Our new 3Q26E EPS was 6% below consensus

3Q26 key earnings change summary and comparison to consensus

NT$mn 3Q26 BofAe New QoQ % YoY % 3Q26 BofAe Old Diff (%) 3Q26 Consensus Diff (%) 2Q26 3Q25
Sales 9,924 4% 18% 11,088 -11% 10,235 -3% 9,569 8,422
Gross profit 4,533 4% 5% 5,781 -22% 4,690 -3% 4,351 4,313
Operating profit 2,568 22% 2% 3,585 -28% 2,698 -5% 2,103 2,525
Pretax profit 2,719 5% -6% 3,727 -27% 2,902 -6% 2,598 2,882
Net income 2,150 8% -7% 2,956 -27% 2,273 -5% 1,984 2,318
EPS (NT$) 19.06 8% -8% 26.37 -28% 20.36 -6% 17.59 20.68
Margin %
Gross margin 45.7% 0.2 ppt -5.5 ppt 52.1% -6.5 ppt 45.8% -0.2 ppt 45.5% 51.2%
Operating margin 25.9% 3.9 ppt -4.1 ppt 32.3% -6.5 ppt 26.4% -0.5 ppt 22.0% 30.0%
Pre-tax margin 27.4% 0.2 ppt -6.8 ppt 33.6% -6.2 ppt 28.4% -1.0 ppt 27.1% 34.2%
Net margin 21.7% 0.9 ppt -5.9 ppt 26.7% -5.0 ppt 22.2% -0.5 ppt 20.7% 27.5%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg consensus. Diff: difference to new 3Q26 BofAe data

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 4: Lotes' historical P/E trading average since 2017 is 12x

Lotes' P/E trend and -1/+1 standard deviation since 2017

Exhibit 5: Lotes' historical P/B trading average since the IPO is 1.8x

Lotes' P/B trend and -1/+1 standard deviation since the IPO

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 4: We model 2026-28E sales/EPS CAGR at 24%/36%

Quarterly earnings summary, 2025-28E

NT$mn 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales 9,328 9,569 9,924 10,364 10,467 11,402 12,981 14,506 14,214 14,704 15,466 16,205 33,783 39,184 49,355 60,589
Gross profit 4,622 4,351 4,533 4,813 4,961 5,558 6,430 7,230 7,134 7,369 7,722 8,011 17,334 18,318 24,179 30,237
Operating profit 2,708 2,103 2,568 2,906 3,057 3,517 4,198 4,836 4,689 4,899 5,309 5,548 10,344 10,285 15,607 20,446
Pretax profit 3,003 2,598 2,719 3,037 3,208 3,670 4,399 4,988 4,841 5,051 5,511 5,700 10,191 11,357 16,265 21,103
Net income 2,397 1,984 2,150 2,405 2,547 2,732 3,500 3,970 3,853 3,768 4,389 4,540 7,866 8,936 12,748 16,550
EPS (NT$) 21.24 17.59 19.06 21.31 22.42 24.06 30.82 34.96 33.93 33.18 38.65 39.98 70.17 79.20 112.26 145.74
Margin %
Gross margin 49.5% 45.5% 45.7% 46.4% 47.4% 48.7% 49.5% 49.8% 50.2% 50.1% 49.9% 49.4% 51.3% 46.7% 49.0% 49.9%
Operating margin 29.0% 22.0% 25.9% 28.0% 29.2% 30.8% 32.3% 33.3% 33.0% 33.3% 34.3% 34.2% 30.6% 26.2% 31.6% 33.7%
Pretax margin 32.2% 27.1% 27.4% 29.3% 30.7% 32.2% 33.9% 34.4% 34.1% 34.4% 35.6% 35.2% 30.2% 29.0% 33.0% 34.8%
Net margin 25.7% 20.7% 21.7% 23.2% 24.3% 24.0% 27.0% 27.4% 27.1% 25.6% 28.4% 28.0% 23.3% 22.8% 25.8% 27.3%
QoQ %
Sales 1% 3% 4% 4% 1% 9% 14% 12% -2% 3% 5% 5%
Gross profit -3% -6% 4% 6% 3% 12% 16% 12% -1% 3% 5% 4%
Operating profit -2% -22% 22% 13% 5% 15% 19% 15% -3% 4% 8% 4%
Pretax profit -7% -13% 5% 12% 6% 14% 20% 13% -3% 4% 9% 3%
Net income -5% -17% 8% 12% 6% 7% 28% 13% -3% -2% 16% 3%
YoY %
Sales 20% 15% 18% 12% 12% 19% 31% 40% 36% 29% 19% 12% 12% 16% 26% 23%
Gross profit 16% 2% 5% 1% 7% 28% 42% 50% 44% 33% 20% 11% 10% 6% 32% 25%
Operating profit 11% -19% 2% 5% 13% 67% 63% 66% 53% 39% 26% 15% 1% -1% 52% 31%
Pretax profit 5% 113% -6% -6% 7% 41% 62% 64% 51% 38% 25% 14% -14% 11% 43% 30%
Net income 5% 165% -7% -5% 6% 38% 63% 65% 51% 38% 25% 14% -15% 14% 43% 30%

Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company data

Exhibit 11: Acronyms

Acronyms used through the report

Acronym Acronym Acronym Acronym Acronym
AI Artificial Intelligence FX Foreign Exchange PC Personal Computer
AMD Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) GM Gross Margin P/E Price to Earnings
ASP Average Selling Price GPU Graphic Processing Unit PO Price Objective
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate IPO Initial Public Offering QD Quick Disconnect
CPU Central Processing Unit NPO Near-Packaged Optics R&D Research & Development
DT Desktop NTD / NT$ New Taiwan Dollar RMB Renminbi (Chinese Yuan)
EPS Earnings Per Share OPM Operating Profit Margin SD Standard Deviation
FAMG Facebook (Meta), Amazon, Microsoft, Google P/B Price to Book USD / US$ US Dollars

Source: BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Price objective basis & risk

Lotes (ZYZTF)

Our PO of NT$2,245 is based on 20x 2027E EPS. Our valuation multiple of 20x (2SD above historical P/E trading average) reflects rising sales mix from better-margin server business with ASP increase, double-digit sales/EPS CAGR in 2026-28, and solid balance sheet. Our P/E multiple can also be justified by solid CPU server demand amid accelerating agentic AI needs, Lotes' top position as desktop/server CPU socket supplier to ride on Intel/AMD's ongoing desktop/server CPU platform upgrade.

Upside risks: (1) further ASP increase thanks to faster adoption/penetration of new DT/server platform and new product, (2) faster progress in AI related business, (3) faster AI PC launch/adoption, (4) GM upside from lowering/stabilizing raw material prices, and (5) more favorable FX (USD/NTD and/or USD/RMB) movement to benefit GM and/or non-operating items.

Downside risks: (1) slower ASP increase due to new CPU platform delay, (2) slower progress from AI business, (3) weaker PC/server market demand amid inflation/macro uncertainties, (4) GM pressure from higher raw material prices, (5) higher labor/logistics cost from supply-chain disruption and uncertain China lockdown policy, (6) unfavorable FX movement to weigh on GM and/or non-operating items, and (7) peers' more aggressive pricing competition.