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57KB | 真資料圖 | TSMWF 股價與 PO（NT$）沿革，2024-01 至 2026-10，PO 自 NT$760 一路升至 2026-10-12 的 NT$3,260 |
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62KB | 真資料圖 | TSM ADR 股價與 PO（US$）沿革，PO 自 US$125 升至 2026-10-12 的 US$620 |
原始內容
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
3Q26 earnings take: resilient GM even with 2nm ramp; aggressive inv't for AI strength
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 3,260 TWD | Price: 2,440 TWD
Solid AI demand and US operation hold up 2H26 GMs
3Q26 sales of +16% QoQ is above its US$ guide led by HPC (+22%, across GPUs, CPUs, ASICs, networking switches), smartphone (+10%, Apple seasonal builds) and incremental auto strength (+23%, US and China EV/ADAS ramp). Improving cost and better utilization is partially offset by 2nm ramp, taking 3Q26 GMs to 66.4% in line with its guidance and BofA preview but below recent Street 67-68%. On continued HPC strength and flagship smartphone builds, 4Q26 sales was guided for +12-16% QoQ in US$, largely in line with BofAe/Street and lifting sales tracking to +44% YoY in US$ in '26. While further ramp on 2nm dilutes the margins, effective overseas fab ramp and healthy utilization/pricing put GMs resilient QoQ at 65-67% but shy of BofAe 67.8% and below recent street 68-69%.
Accelerating expansion to support proliferating drivers
With TSMC incorporating funding, power and other supply constraint into its demand assessment, it sees no slowdown of AI accelerator chipset demand which will 'probably be higher' than its guide of 55-59% CAGR and the agentic AI demand for more efficient AI assistance including CPUs and networking switches accelerates as another growth engine. While the company keeps its '26 capex guide at US$60-64bn (US$41bn YTD spending), it stays committed in significantly higher investment in '27-28 by adding more 3nm capacity and more than doubling its 2nm scale in '27. We model its capex will reach US$80-85bn in '27 and its high utilization and strategic pricing should keep its sales better than its 25% CAGR guide from '24-29 at healthy GM.
Robust outlook reaffirming AI and capex sustainability
We keep Buy rating on TSMC with NT$3,260/US$620 PO. In our view, the valuation is undemanding at 16x '27E P/E (vs. its long term 11-21x) backed by its technology leadership while its positive tone on AI/capex should alleviate the concerns on demand moderation.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 1,173,268 | 1,717,886 | 2,916,545 | 4,184,666 | 5,276,738 |
| EPS | 45.24 | 66.24 | 112.46 | 161.36 | 203.48 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 39.9% | 46.4% | 69.8% | 43.5% | 26.1% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 108.06 | 147.74 | 186.86 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 18.00 | 21.50 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 33.55 | 38.66 | 69.93 | 96.56 | 138.58 |
| ADR EPS (US$) | 7.04 | 10.62 | 17.51 | 25.13 | 31.69 |
| ADR Dividend / Share (US$) | 2.80 | 3.45 | 3.74 | 3.74 | 3.74 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 53.93x | 36.83x | 21.70x | 15.12x | 11.99x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.738% | 0.881% | 0.984% | 0.984% | 0.984% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 30.27x | 22.89x | 14.46x | 10.13x | 8.22x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 1.38% | 1.58% | 2.87% | 3.96% | 5.68% |
| * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
15 October 2026
Equity
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727 haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3729 mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Robert Cheng >>
Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3731 robert.cheng@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3726 cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
Stock Data
| Price (Common / ADR) | 2,440 TWD / 430.00 USD |
|---|---|
| Price Objective | 3,260 TWD / 620.00 USD |
| Date Established | 12-Oct-2026 / 12-Oct-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | B-1-7 / B-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 1,375 TWD-2,590 TWD |
| Market Value (mn) | 1,970,784 USD |
| Market Value (mn) | 63,274,983 TWD |
| Shares Outstanding (mn) | 25,932.4 / 5,186.5 |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 1,780 USD |
| Free Float | 92.2% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | TSMWF / TAI |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | TSM / NYS |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2330 TT / 2330.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 43.8% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -37.3% |
iQprofile SM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 2,894,308 | 3,809,054 | 5,551,264 | 7,790,371 | 9,656,518 |
| Gross Profit | 1,624,354 | 2,281,294 | 3,733,064 | 5,371,382 | 6,653,851 |
| Sell General & Admin Expense | (96,888) | (99,222) | (110,416) | (131,671) | (145,125) |
| Operating Profit | 1,322,053 | 1,936,092 | 3,323,549 | 4,866,929 | 6,097,850 |
| Net Interest & Other Income | 83,786 | 105,574 | 193,432 | 175,282 | 261,328 |
| Associates | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pretax Income | 1,405,839 | 2,041,666 | 3,516,980 | 5,042,211 | 6,359,178 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (233,407) | (326,266) | (601,062) | (860,526) | (1,086,199) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 1,173,268 | 1,717,886 | 2,916,545 | 4,184,666 | 5,276,738 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 25,932 | 25,933 | 25,933 | 25,933 | 25,933 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 1,173,268 | 1,717,886 | 2,916,545 | 4,184,666 | 5,276,738 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 662,797 | 688,096 | 831,710 | 1,061,056 | 1,209,487 |
| Change in Working Capital | (143,010) | (72,100) | (102,100) | (161,737) | (113,049) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 133,123 | (58,907) | 154,974 | 77,281 | 95,310 |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 1,826,177 | 2,274,976 | 3,801,128 | 5,161,266 | 6,468,486 |
| Capital Expenditure | (956,007) | (1,272,411) | (1,987,705) | (2,657,265) | (2,874,767) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (58,000) | (37,014) | (42,792) | 7,594 | 475 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | 149,164 | 165,031 | 76,317 | 411 | 2,594 |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (864,843) | (1,144,393) | (1,954,180) | (2,649,259) | (2,871,699) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | (9) | (2) | (2) | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (337,129) | (440,855) | (531,614) | (622,377) | (622,377) |
| Cash Flow from Financing | (346,301) | (440,345) | (564,551) | (624,253) | (622,956) |
| Free Cash Flow | 870,171 | 1,002,565 | 1,813,423 | 2,504,002 | 3,593,719 |
| Net Debt | (1,403,733) | (2,035,607) | (3,419,363) | (5,306,194) | (8,280,429) |
| Change in Net Debt | (556,872) | (647,079) | (1,277,442) | (1,889,630) | (2,974,410) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant & Equipment | 3,234,980 | 3,691,841 | 5,015,572 | 6,578,562 | 8,037,977 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 368,606 | 424,052 | 481,020 | 478,736 | 478,718 |
| Trade Receivables | 272,088 | 281,791 | 341,182 | 430,143 | 481,869 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 2,422,020 | 3,068,595 | 4,463,340 | 6,348,294 | 9,321,950 |
| Other Current Assets | 394,245 | 466,745 | 527,406 | 634,603 | 734,512 |
| Total Assets | 6,691,938 | 7,933,024 | 10,828,520 | 14,470,338 | 19,055,027 |
| Long-Term Debt | 958,429 | 896,062 | 895,282 | 892,832 | 892,526 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 145,408 | 118,147 | 176,911 | 209,050 | 236,572 |
| Short-Term Debt | 59,858 | 136,926 | 148,695 | 149,268 | 148,995 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 1,204,667 | 1,321,094 | 1,682,008 | 1,732,227 | 1,786,768 |
| Total Liabilities | 2,368,362 | 2,472,229 | 2,902,896 | 2,983,378 | 3,064,861 |
| Total Equity | 4,323,576 | 5,460,795 | 7,925,624 | 11,486,960 | 15,990,166 |
| Total Equity & Liabilities | 6,691,938 | 7,933,024 | 10,828,520 | 14,470,338 | 19,055,027 |
| iQmethod SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 23.2% | 28.4% | 36.3% | 38.3% | 35.2% |
| Return On Equity | 30.3% | 35.4% | 43.8% | 43.3% | 38.5% |
| Operating Margin | 45.7% | 50.8% | 59.9% | 62.5% | 63.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 68.6% | 68.9% | 74.9% | 76.1% | 75.7% |
| iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 1.6x | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 1.2x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 1.4x | 1.8x | 2.4x | 2.5x | 2.4x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 16.6% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -32.5% | -37.3% | -43.1% | -46.2% | -51.8% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
TSMC was founded in 1987 and is listed in Taiwan (2330TT) and the US (TSM/NYS).TSMC is the largest and global leader in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing. As a build-to-order foundry, it provides a wide range of valueadd activities: IC manufacturing, mask-making, IC design services, turnkey solutions, and process development. We attribute its success to its proven, winning business model, unparalleled scale advantage, optimized execution, and technology scope and depth. 5 shares = 1 ADR.
Investment Rationale
The ongoing semi content growth in mobile, rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) should result in sustainable upside in aggregate computing power globally. TSMC, as the leading contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips, is in a good position to capitalize. We are structurally positive on TSMC and expect it to sustain over 15% growth with rising FCF from 2026 onwards.
| Stock Data | |
|---|---|
| Shares / ADR | 5.00 |
| Price to Book Value | 8.0x |
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Focus tables
Exhibit 1: TSMC 3Q26-4Q26 and 2026-27 estimates - BofA vs. street
TSMC's sales could see solid growth in 2026 and beyond
| 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - BofAe | 3Q26 - Street | 4Q26E - Guidance | 4Q26E - BofAe | 4Q26E - Street | 2026E - BofAe | 2026E - Street | 2027E - BofAe | 2027E - Street | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (NT$mn) Sales QoQ / YoY (%) | $1,494,243 17.6% | $1,494,243 17.6% | $1,463,320 15.2% | $1,663,140-1,726,740mn US $52.3bn~ US $54.3bn | $1,652,537 10.6% | $1,607,454 9.8% | $5,551,264 45.7% | $5,458,697 43.3% | $7,790,371 40.3% | $7,429,732 36.1% |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) GMs (%) | $992,379 66.4% | $1,000,465 67.0% | $972,771 66.5% | 65%~67% | $1,120,993 67.8% | $1,062,013 66.1% | $3,733,064 67.2% | $3,626,431 66.4% | $5,371,382 68.9% | $4,942,035 66.5% |
| Operating profit(NT$mn) OpMs (%) | $876,445 58.7% | $891,981 59.7% | $854,354 58.4% | 56.5%~58.5% | $1,005,999 60.9% | $932,497 58.0% | $3,323,549 59.9% | $3,200,560 58.6% | $4,866,929 62.5% | $4,370,091 58.8% |
| Pretax profit (NT$mn) Pretax margins (%) | $911,039 61.0% | $924,044 61.8% | $881,845 60.3% | $1,042,707 63.1% | $964,125 60.0% | $3,516,980 63.4% | $3,380,594 61.9% | $5,042,211 64.7% | $4,529,536 61.0% | |
| Tax expense (NT$mn) Tax rate (%) | -$147,698 16.2% | -$154,691 16.7% | -$143,280 16.2% | -$174,556 16.7% | -$159,994 16.6% | -$600,435 17.1% | -$583,761 17.3% | -$857,545 17.0% | -$772,586 17.1% | |
| Net profit (NT$mn) Net margins (%) | $763,064 51.1% | $769,353 51.5% | $738,565 50.5% | $868,150 52.5% | $804,131 50.0% | $2,916,545 52.5% | $2,796,833 51.2% | $4,184,666 53.7% | $3,756,950 50.6% | |
| EPS (NT$) | $29.43 | $29.67 | $28.38 | $33.48 | $31.13 | $112.47 | $108.02 | $161.37 | $141.20 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| AI | Artificial Intelligence |
| ADAS | Advanced Driver Assistance Systems |
| ASIC | Application Specific Integrated Circuit |
| CMP | Chemical-Mechanical Polishing |
| CoWoS | Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate |
| CPU | Central Processing Unit |
| EV | Electric Vehicle |
| GPU | Graphic Processing Unit |
| HPC | High-Performance Computing |
| IDM | Integrated Device Manufacturer |
| InFO | Integrated fan-Out |
| TAM | Total Addressable Market |
| WMCM | Wafer-level-multi-chip-module |
| WPM | Wafer per month |
| WPQ | Wafer per quarter |
| WPY | Wafer per year |
Source: BofA Global Research
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BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMWF / TSM)
Our PO for TSMC is NT$3,260 per share (US$620 per ADR), based on 20x 2027E P/E. TSMC's valuation has traded in the range of 10-26x PE from 2017. 20x is in the mid to high end of the historical range, above the average P/E of 16x. We think a PE above the average is justified given TSMC's enhanced industry position and mid-to-high 50% 5year CAGR in AI should underpin a rerating
Downside risks to our price objective are: (1) greater-than-expected slowdown in global smartphone/consumer electronics demand, (2) Intel's potential insourcing strategy and ambitions in foundry service, (3) execution risks on advanced nodes, and (4) higher than expected tariffs.