PDF 原檔：報告_BofA_台積電2330_20260831_original.pdf
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78KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC（TSMWF）股價走勢＋目標價（PO）沿革圖（NTD 計價），2024-01 至 2026-08，藍色股價線疊加淺藍色 PO 區間帶，逐次標示歷次分析師異動日期與目標價：31-Aug B Lin PO NT$720 → …→ 24-Jun PO:NT$3060 → 13-Jul PO:NT$3100，可見 PO 逐步墊高、股價同步走揚 |
報告_BofA_台積電2330_20260831_002.png |
86KB | 真資料圖 | 同一目標價沿革圖的 ADR（TSM，美元計價）版本，2024-01 至 2026-08，股價線＋PO 區間帶＋歷次分析師異動日期與目標價：31-Aug B Lin PO:US$125 → …→ 24-Jun PO:US$500 → 13-Jul PO:US$590 |
原始內容
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
SEMICON Taiwan: proliferating AI boosting the manufacturing innovation
Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 3,100 TWD | Price: 2,420 TWD
HPC computing drives holistic manufacturing innovation
SEMICON Taiwan kicked off on August 31 st with IC Forum and Silicon Photonics Summit, both featuring TSMC ' s presentations. At the session in IC Forum, TSMC shared its view that the data center power capacity will accelerate from 5-6GW per year from ' 15-24 to 30-40GW per year from ' 25-30, reaching 300GW installed base by ' 30 as AI training scales toward multimodal (5x per annum LLM compute growth). In addition, it sees robust AI inference demand, with token consumption growing ~500x since ' 22 led by agents and reasoning and further compounding by 24x to 120 quadrillion tokens by ' 30. TSMC has AI platform across logic (A13, A12, N2U). Si-technology for HBM scaling (from N12 for HBM4 to N3 for HBM5) and system integration (e.g. SoIC with 11 tape outs for GPU/CPU by 4Q26 and >14x reticle size CoWoS by ' 29) and compute fabric (e.g. CPO).
Silicon photonics acceleration to enable faster I/O scaling
TSMC believes the optical I/O is becoming prerequisite for AI/HPC system as the I/O gap is widening between the compute scaling (3x every 2 years) and I/O scaling (1.4x every two years). Its COUPE platform and a broad photonics device/PDK library facilitate its customer designs to enhance the connectivity through two complementary paths -' faster and narrowing ' with higher per lane speed (200Gbps to 400Gbps) and lane count (128+ lanes) and ' slower and wider ' by increasing wavelengths from 1 to 16+ through WDM. To allow further production ramp and wider adoption of the technology platform, TSMC has lowered COUPE grating coupler insertion loss while improved edge coupler performance and sees wafer level testing is critical to reduce the wasted packaging cost.
Stock at mid-cycle supported by robust AI demand pipeline
We maintain our Buy rating with PO at NT$3,100 on 20x '27 P/E. The share valuation is undemanding at 16x '27 P/E on strong technology leadership and extending AI visibility.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 1,173,268 | 1,717,886 | 2,857,919 | 3,972,158 | 4,718,757 |
| EPS | 45.24 | 66.24 | 110.20 | 153.17 | 181.96 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 39.9% | 46.4% | 66.4% | 39.0% | 18.8% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 107.27 | 144.27 | 180.29 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 18.00 | 22.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 33.55 | 38.66 | 67.82 | 93.39 | 126.04 |
| ADR EPS (US$) | 7.04 | 10.62 | 17.43 | 24.23 | 28.78 |
| ADR Dividend / Share (US$) | 2.80 | 3.53 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 53.49x | 36.53x | 21.96x | 15.80x | 13.30x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.744% | 0.909% | 0.992% | 0.992% | 0.992% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 30.02x | 22.71x | 14.59x | 10.53x | 9.02x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 1.39% | 1.60% | 2.80% | 3.86% | 5.21% |
| * For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
31 August 2026
Equity
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727 haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3729 mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Robert Cheng >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3731 robert.cheng@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3726 cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
Stock Data
| Price (Common / ADR) | 2,420TWD/417.52USD |
|---|---|
| Price Objective | 3,100TWD/590.00USD |
| Date Established | 13-Jul-2026/24-Jun-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | B-1-7 / B-1-7 |
| 52-WeekRange | 1,145TWD-2,535TWD |
| Market Value (mn) | 1,985,457 USD |
| Market Value (mn) | 62,756,336 TWD |
| Shares Outstanding (mn) | 25,932.4 / 5,186.5 |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 2,451 USD |
| Free Float | 92.1% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | TSMWF/ TAI |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | TSM / NYS |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2330 TT / 2330.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 43.0% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -37.3% |
iQ profile SM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 2,894,308 | 3,809,054 | 5,477,153 | 7,624,785 | 8,920,142 |
| Gross Profit | 1,624,354 | 2,281,294 | 3,654,584 | 5,107,101 | 5,989,971 |
| Sell General &Admin Expense | (96,888) | (99,222) | (108,728) | (131,058) | (147,877) |
| Operating Profit | 1,322,053 | 1,936,092 | 3,251,539 | 4,604,996 | 5,423,431 |
| Net Interest &Other Income | 83,786 | 105,574 | 195,028 | 181,827 | 263,268 |
| Associates | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pretax Income | 1,405,839 | 2,041,666 | 3,446,566 | 4,786,823 | 5,686,699 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (233,407) | (326,266) | (589,232) | (817,495) | (971,303) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 1,173,268 | 1,717,886 | 2,857,919 | 3,972,158 | 4,718,757 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 25,932 | 25,933 | 25,933 | 25,933 | 25,933 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 1,173,268 | 1,717,886 | 2,857,919 | 3,972,158 | 4,718,757 |
| Depreciation &Amortization | 662,797 | 688,096 | 831,710 | 1,053,944 | 1,179,802 |
| Change in Working Capital | (143,010) | (72,100) | (98,157) | (169,601) | (63,286) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 133,123 | (58,907) | 155,002 | 77,356 | 95,369 |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 1,826,177 | 2,274,976 | 3,746,474 | 4,933,857 | 5,930,643 |
| Capital Expenditure | (956,007) | (1,272,411) | (1,987,705) | (2,512,151) | (2,662,089) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (58,000) | (37,014) | (59,179) | 3,026 | 189 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | 149,164 | 165,031 | 118,284 | (4,000) | 1,931 |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (864,843) | (1,144,393) | (1,928,601) | (2,513,125) | (2,659,970) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | (9) | (2) | (1) (570,514) | 0 (622,381) | 0 (622,381) |
| Cost of Dividends Paid Financing | (337,129) | (440,855) | (622,960) | ||
| Cash Flow from | (346,301) | (440,345) | (577,519) | (624,257) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 870,171 | 1,002,565 | 1,758,769 | 2,421,706 | 3,268,553 |
| Net Debt | (1,403,733) | (2,035,607) | (3,385,555) | (5,181,108) | (7,829,225) |
| Change in Net Debt | (556,872) | (647,079) | (1,247,470) | (1,798,352) | (2,648,292) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant &Equipment | 3,234,980 | 3,691,841 | 5,058,473 | 6,595,644 | 8,000,659 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 368,606 | 424,052 | 455,441 | 462,135 | 463,065 |
| Trade Receivables | 272,088 | 281,791 | 336,627 | 421,001 | 445,123 |
| Cash &Equivalents | 2,422,020 | 3,068,595 | 4,421,297 | 6,214,973 | 8,862,511 |
| Other Current Assets | 394,245 | 466,745 | 528,263 | 653,244 | 721,183 |
| Total Assets | 6,691,938 | 7,933,024 | 10,800,100 | 14,346,996 | 18,492,541 |
| Long-Term Debt | 958,429 | 896,062 | 887,047 | 884,597 | 884,290 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 145,408 | 118,147 | 180,257 | 213,694 | 241,939 |
| Short-Term Debt | 59,858 | 136,926 | 148,695 | 149,268 | 148,995 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 1,204,667 | 1,321,094 | 1,682,253 | 1,737,804 | 1,782,535 |
| Total Liabilities | 2,368,362 | 2,472,229 | 2,898,251 | 2,985,363 | 3,057,760 |
| Total Equity | 4,323,576 | 5,460,795 | 7,901,849 | 11,361,634 | 15,434,781 |
| Total Equity &Liabilities | 6,691,938 | 7,933,024 | 10,800,100 | 14,346,996 | 18,492,541 |
| iQ method SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 23.2% | 28.4% | 35.7% | 36.6% | 32.2% |
| Return On Equity | 30.3% | 35.4% | 43.0% | 41.4% | 35.3% |
| Operating Margin | 45.7% | 50.8% | 59.4% | 60.4% | 60.8% |
| EBITDA Margin | 68.6% | 68.9% | 74.6% | 74.2% | 74.0% |
| iQ method SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 1.6x | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 1.3x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 1.4x | 1.8x | 2.4x | 2.4x | 2.3x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 16.6% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -32.5% | -37.3% | -42.8% | -45.6% | -50.7% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
TSMC was founded in 1987 and is listed in Taiwan (2330TT) and the US (TSM/NYS).TSMC is the largest and global leader in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing. As a build-to-order foundry, it provides a wide range of valueadd activities: IC manufacturing, mask-making, IC design services, turnkey solutions, and process development. We attribute its success to its proven, winning business model, unparalleled scale advantage, optimized execution, and technology scope and depth. 5 shares = 1 ADR.
Investment Rationale
The ongoing semi content growth in mobile, rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) should result in sustainable upside in aggregate computing power globally. TSMC, as the leading contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips, is in a good position to capitalize. We are structurally positive on TSMC and expect it to sustain over 15% growth with rising FCF from 2026 onwards.
| Stock Data | |
|---|---|
| Shares / ADR | 5.00 |
| Price to Book Value | 8.0x |
Acronyms
Exhibit 1: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
Term
Definition
AI
Artificial Intelligence
LLM
Large Language Model
HBM
High Bandwith Memory
Si
Silicon
CPU
Central Processing Unit
CoWoS
Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate
GPU
Graphic Processing Unit
HPC
High-Performance Computing
IC
Integrated Circuit
I/O
Input/Output
TAM
Total Addressable Market
WPM
Wafer per month
WPQ
Wafer per quarter
WPY
Wafer per year
COUPE
Compact Universal Photonic Engine
PIC
photonics IC
EIC
electronics IC
SoIC
System on Integrated Chips
OE
Optical engine
Source: BofA Global Research
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMWF / TSM)
Our PO for TSMC is NT$3,100 per share (US$590 per ADR), based on 20x 2027E P/E. TSMC's valuation has traded in the range of 10-26x PE from 2017. 20x is in the mid to high end of the historical range, above the average P/E of 18x. We think a PE above the average is justified given TSMC's enhanced industry position and mid-40% 5-year CAGR in AI should underpin a rerating
Downside risks to our price objective are: (1) greater-than-expected slowdown in global smartphone/consumer electronics demand, (2) Intel's potential insourcing strategy and ambitions in foundry service, (3) execution risks on advanced nodes, and (4) higher than expected tariffs.