報告_廣發香港_SuperMicro_F1Q27_20261104

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Super Micro (SMCI US)

Earnings Beat, Resilient Margin Outlook

Retain Buy: SMCI reported F1Q27 earnings with revenue/GM beats, even ahead of preliminary figures. Besides better than expected GM of 12.8%, mgmt. guided 12% (midpoint) for the full year. We attribute the resilient margin outlook to neoclouds' orders momentum and non-AI verticals (general/storage server) support. Backed by customer prepayments, SMCI's AI server visibility has strengthened, allowing it to be more selective with customers, which may partially ease concerns over neoclouds exposure. Furthermore, governance overhang appears to have cleared, as DOJ investigation closed with charges restricted to individuals rather than the corporate entity. By factoring in results/guidance and higher GM, we raise FY27E/FY28E EPS by +54%/+41%. With improving fundamentals and valuation well below historical averages, we maintain our Buy rating. Our TP of $56 is based on 8x FY27E EPS.

Results/Guidance Another Beat: F1Q27 revenue was $19.9bn, +79%QoQ, and gross margin of 12.8% was even higher than preliminary update of 12-12.5%, supported by AI and non-AI verticals. EPS came in at $1.81, +410% YoY, above the consensus of $1.5. For F2Q27E, mgmt. guided: 1) revenue of $19.5-$21.5bn; 2) GM in the range of 12-12.5%; 3) Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 - $1.90. For FY27E, the company revised revenue guidance to $75 - $82bn, with gross margin to hold at 11.8-12%, exceeding heightened expectations of 11%.

Neoclouds strength continues; more selective on customers: Despite $2.3bn rack deployment sales delayed from last quarter, F1Q margin was still a beat, driven by neoclouds' order momentum and support from non-AI verticals (general/storage server), alongside tariff relief/lower inventory reserves. Beyond SpaceX, we expect SMCI's AI server visibility to be further strengthened by gains across Nebius/Crusoe/Lambda and expanding customer base. We forecast its NVL72 (GB300/VR200) rack shipments to reach 10k for FY27E. To address neoclouds concerns, SMCI is more selective on customers, with prepayments.

Working capital/FCF in focus: During the quarter, SMCI's FCF turned negative to -$434mn, mainly driven by inventory builds for AI server deployment and increasing accounts payables, partially offset by deferred revenue (primarily prepayments). That said, mgmt. highlighted a substantial gain in working capital efficiency, as evidenced by cash conversion cycle improved 52 days (DOI down 45 days). At this point, no equity raise plans are under consideration.

Risks: 1) Competition, 2) Shipment delays, 3) Financing.

Profit forecast

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

数据来源：公司财务报表，⼴发证券发展研究中⼼

Evan Lee SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

F1Q27 results beat

F1Q27 revenue of $19.9bn, +298% YoY/+79% QoQ, exceeding the higher end of guidance/preliminary results, driven by both AI and non-AI solutions across diverse customers. Of note, this included $2.3bn deployments originally scheduled for last quarter due to customers and data center readiness. NonGAAP gross margin was 12.8% (vs preliminary update 12.0-12.5%), down from 17.6% a quarter ago, mainly due to product mix (more AI rack scale deployments). Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 10.9%. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.81 was higher than the consensus of $1.5.

AI solutions contributed to 71% of total revenue, up from 59% last quarter. Vertical-wise, OEM/large data center reported $14.7bn or 74% of sales, while enterprise/channel accounted for $4.9bn or 25% of revenue. On customers front, the largest customer represented 44% of total sales.

F2Q27E guidance even ahead of revised expectations

For F2Q27E, Mgmt. guided: 1) revenue of $19.5 to $21.5bn; 2) gross margin to be in the range of 12%- 12.5%; 3) GAAP EPS $1.59 - $1.83, non-GAAP EPS$1.66 - $1.90. For FY27E, Mgmt. guided revenue to $72 to $82bn, up from $65 to $72bn last quarter.

Of note, its free cash flow turned negative to -481mn, down from 747mn a quarter ago, reflecting surging inventory build for strong order backlogs and increased accounts receivable. Positively, its cash conversion cycle improved 52 days to 97 days, including days of inventory down 45 days to 74 days.

Figure 1: F1Q27 Results Review

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 2: SMCI's GM and OPM (%) trends

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 3: SMCI's FCF and working capital (US$ bn)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Earnings revision

By factoring better results, guidance and higher GM assumptions, we raised FY27E/FY28E EPS by +54%/+41%

Figure 4: Earnings revision

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 5: SMCI's P&L forecast

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Retain Buy with TP of $56

We maintain Supermicro (SMCI US) at Buy and set our TP at $56, which is based on 8x our FY27E EPS estimate. We lower our PE multiple to reflect the longer term concerns over neoclouds' financing and AI datacenter deceleration. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.

SMCI's P/E traded at an average of 16x since 4Q22 when the AI cycle started and broke up to 20x above in 1H24. Share price was volatile in the past two years due to events of: 1) March 2024: reaching all-time high share price of $118.81 amid AI server demand; 2) October 2024: the resignation of auditor Ernst & Young; 3) November 2024: hiring new auditor BDO and announcing delayed filings plan; 4) February 2025: filed financials on time, avoiding NASDAQ delisting; 5) March 2026: Indictment over alleged China AI server exports. Though we cannot be certain, it appears that the recent investigation has concluded with charges limited strictly to individuals, effectively lifting the near-term corporate governance overhang.

Our target multiple is inline with the mid-cycle valuation, and we believe its long-term growth outlook remain solid well supported by Neoclouds' momentum and Agentic AI. On relative basis, SMCI trades lower than server OEM peers such as DELL and HPE, due to corporate governance issue.

Figure 6: SMCI's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Bloomberg, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

• 1) Competition, 2) Shipment delays, 3) Financing.

USD mn Cash Flow Statement

8,932 12,468 27,726 51,863 69,702 Operating cash flow

243 1,183 2,488 3,354 Others

480 1,046 1,594 1,594 1,594 Others

988 2,873 6,041 8,144 Others

9,826 14,018 29,945 54,197 72,103 Key Financial Ratios

653 1,523 1,640 Gross debt/equity

1,345 1,316 2,586 5,396 6,362 Quick Ratio

Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Hold Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Sector ratings Positive

Neutral Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

Address GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

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