PDF 原檔：報告_廣發香港_Credo_F1Q27_20260903_original.pdf
原始內容
Credo Technology (CRDO US)
Revenue inline, Retain $600m+ Optical Sales for FY27E
Maintain Buy and TP of $227: Credo delivered a F1Q27 revenue of $479mn (+115% YoY, +10% QoQ), largely inline with consensus of $477mn, while non -GAAP EPS came in at $1.20, slightly ahead of consensus $1.15. Non -GAAP gross margin printed 68%, down 30bps QoQ and at the midpoint of guidance range. The company guided F2Q27E revenue of $525 -535mn, non -GAAP gross margin of 67% -69%, in -line with market consensus. Management highlighted surging AI -driven interconnect demand, expected >85% YoY total revenue growth for FY27E. Post -market shares traded down ~10%, driven by overly -elevated market expectations for optical revenue as well as investor concerns over long -term GM dilution stemming from the ramp -up of optical products. We forecast FY27E/28E EPS of $6.5/$11.4, respectively. Maintain Buy with TP of $227, based on 20x FY28E EPS.
AEC as the core growth pillar in near-term: AEC will still drive most of revenue expansion in FY1H27E, before optical portfolio gains meaningful traction in the second half. Management sees broadening adoption across both established hyperscalers and fast -growing neo -cloud operators, with rising design activity for next -generation 200G -per -lane and PCIe 6.0 -ready AEC platforms. While AEC maintains its leading market position underpinned by vertical -integrated silicon -firmware stack, the business faces rising competitive threats alongside ongoing IP -licensing -related discussions with industry peers. Longer -term, management envisions AEC and optical solutions evolving toward a roughly 50/50 revenue mix, though optics will eventually address a larger total addressable market.
Maintain $600m+ optical revenue guidance for FY27E : The optical portfolio including ZeroFlap pluggable transceivers, optical DSPs and PICs targets >$600m total FY27E revenue, with meaningful volume ramp weighted toward FY2H27E. ZeroFlap transceivers inherit Credo's reliability -focused design philosophy to tackle link -flap pain -points for AI data centers, and will become the largest optical revenue contributor given its higher ASP. While, rising optical revenue mix will create consolidated gross -margin dilution pressure even as absolute profitability stays healthy. Credo's NPO OE, powered by DustPhotonics silicon -photonics, is slated for sampling in late FY27E with material revenue pushed to FY28E, subject to customer qualification risks.
Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown; 2) Programs ramp slower than expected; 3) Competition.
Profit forecast
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 437 | 1,335 | 2,640 | 4,428 | 5,972 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 126.3 | 205.7 | 97.8 | 67.7 | 34.9 |
| Net profit (m) | 130 | 662 | 1,295 | 2,293 | 3,164 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 792 | 409 | 96 | 77 | 38 |
| EPS ($) | 0.7 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 15.5 |
| P/E | 294.7 | 60.4 | 31.8 | 18.2 | 13.3 |
| ROE ( % ) | 19.1 | 32.1 | 38.8 | 40.5 | 35.7 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained
Buy
Target price
$227
Alicia Xia
SFC CE No. BSS651 aliciaxia@gfgroup.com.hk
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang
SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
Earnings revision
By factoring results and guidance, we fine-tune our EPS estimates for FY27E/FY28E.
Figure 1: Earnings revision
| USDm | FY26 | FY27E | FY27E | FY28E | FY28E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Old | New | FY27E | FY28E | ||
| Net sales | 1,335 | 2,637 | 2,640 | 4,429 | 4,428 | 0% | 0% |
| Gross profit | 910 | 1,747 | 1,750 | 2,875 | 2,874 | 0% | 0% |
| Operating profit | 639 | 1,385 | 1,357 | 2,483 | 2,448 | -2% | -1% |
| Pre-tax Income | 669 | 1,425 | 1,389 | 2,527 | 2,492 | -3% | -1% |
| Net profit | 662 | 1,311 | 1,295 | 2,325 | 2,293 | -1% | -1% |
| EPS ($) | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 0% | 0% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 68% | 66% | 66% | 65% | 65% | ||
| Operating margin | 48% | 53% | 51% | 56% | 55% | ||
| Net profit margin | 50% | 54% | 53% | 52% | 52% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: Credo's P&L forecast
| (USD m) | FY26 | F1Q27 | F2Q27E | F3Q27E | F4Q27E | FY27E | F1Q28E | F2Q28E | F3Q28E | F4Q28E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,335 | 479 | 614 | 722 | 825 | 2,640 | 956 | 1,045 | 1,180 | 1,247 | 4,428 |
| COGS | 425 | 153 | 206 | 246 | 284 | 890 | 335 | 366 | 415 | 437 | 1,554 |
| Gross profit | 910 | 326 | 408 | 476 | 541 | 1,750 | 621 | 679 | 764 | 810 | 2,874 |
| Opex | 271 | 95 | 98 | 99 | 101 | 394 | 103 | 106 | 108 | 110 | 426 |
| Operating profit | 639 | 231 | 310 | 376 | 439 | 1,357 | 518 | 573 | 657 | 700 | 2,448 |
| Non-operating profit | 30 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 44 |
| Pre-tax profit | 669 | 239 | 318 | 384 | 448 | 1,389 | 529 | 584 | 668 | 711 | 2,492 |
| Income tax | -8 | -3 | -25 | -31 | -36 | -95 | -42 | -47 | -53 | -57 | -199 |
| Net Income | 662 | 236 | 293 | 354 | 412 | 1,295 | 486 | 537 | 614 | 654 | 2,293 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 11.4 |
| Diluted shares | 193 | 198 | 199 | 200 | 201 | 199 | 201 | 202 | 202 | 203 | 202 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 68.1% | 68.0% | 66.4% | 65.9% | 65.6% | 66.3% | 64.9% | 64.9% | 64.8% | 65.0% | 64.9% |
| Operating margin | 47.8% | 48.2% | 50.5% | 52.1% | 53.3% | 51.4% | 54.1% | 54.8% | 55.7% | 56.2% | 55.3% |
| Pre-tax margin | 50.1% | 49.8% | 51.8% | 53.2% | 54.2% | 52.6% | 55.3% | 55.9% | 56.6% | 57.0% | 56.3% |
| Effective tax rate | 1.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 8.0% |
| Growth (% YoY) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 206% | 115% | 129% | 77% | 89% | 98% | 100% | 70% | 63% | 51% | 68% |
| Operating profit | 554% | 240% | 250% | 186% | 203% | 212% | 224% | 185% | 175% | 159% | 180% |
| Net income | 409% | 140% | 129% | 69% | 82% | 96% | 106% | 84% | 74% | 59% | 77% |
| EPS | 386% | 130% | 120% | 65% | 78% | 89% | 102% | 81% | 72% | 57% | 75% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| HiWire AECs | 89% | 88% | 73% | 67% | 63% | 71% | 60% | 60% | 59% | 61% | 60% |
| DSP | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Line Card | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Optical transceiver | 0% | 0% | 16% | 21% | 24% | 17% | 29% | 29% | 31% | 29% | 30% |
| PICs | 0% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| IP License | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP of $227
We rate Credo Technology (CRDO US) at Buy and set our TP at $227, based on 20x our FY28E EPS estimate. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook.
Credo's forward P/E valuation was volatile prior to this year, while traded at an average of 29x YTD. We derive our target price based on 20x P/E, which is lower than its mid-cycle level. From peers comparison, our target P/E of 20x is lower than its peers, but we think there may be upside driven by the ramp-up of optical business.
Figure 3: Credo's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) AI demand slowdown; 2) Programs ramp slower than expected; 3) Competition.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | USD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Current assets | 714 | 2,001 | 3,323 | 5,663 | 8,904 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 431 | 1,443 | 2,348 | 4,290 | 7,098 |
| Inventory | 90 | 251 | 312 | 408 | 552 |
| Accounts Receivable | 162 | 233 | 589 | 891 | 1,180 |
| Other current assets | 30 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Non-current assets | 96 | 295 | 371 | 455 | 540 |
| Long-term equity investment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed assets | 64 | 102 | 146 | 198 | 252 |
| Other long-term assets | 32 | 193 | 225 | 257 | 289 |
| Total assets | 809 | 2,296 | 3,694 | 6,117 | 9,444 |
| Current liabilities | 108 | 197 | 319 | 421 | 548 |
| Accounts Payable | 56 | 107 | 220 | 338 | 457 |
| Short-term borrowings | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other current liabilities | 20 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Non-current liabilities | 52 | 90 | 99 | 82 | 91 |
| Long-term Debt | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other non-current liabilities | 20 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Total liabilities | 128 | 232 | 354 | 456 | 583 |
| Total Equity | 682 | 2,064 | 3,340 | 5,662 | 8,861 |
| Share Capital | - | - | - | - | - |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 765 | 1,672 | 1,672 | 1,672 | 1,672 |
| Retained earnings | -83 | 389 | 1,666 | 3,987 | 7,186 |
| Minority interests | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 809 | 2,296 | 3,694 | 6,117 | 9,444 |
| Income Statement | USD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Revenue | 437 | 1,335 | 2,640 | 4,428 | 5,972 |
| Cost of sales | 153 | 425 | 890 | 1,554 | 2,127 |
| Gross profit | 284 | 910 | 1,750 | 2,874 | 3,845 |
| Operating Expense | 169 | 271 | 394 | 426 | 454 |
| Operating profit | 115 | 639 | 1,357 | 2,448 | 3,391 |
| Interest Income | - | - | - | - | - |
| Interest Expense | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 18 | 669 | 1,389 | 2,492 | 3,439 |
| Pre-tax profit | 133 | 669 | 1,389 | 2,492 | 3,439 |
| Income tax | 2 | -1 | 52 | 142 | 205 |
| Profit for the year | 130 | 662 | 1,295 | 2,293 | 3,164 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 130 | 662 | 1,295 | 2,293 | 3,164 |
| EPS ($) | 0.7 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 15.5 |
| Cash Flow Statement | USD mn | USD mn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Operating cash flow | 56 | 464 | 984 | 2,043 | 2,928 |
| Profit for the year (GAAP) | 52 | 472 | 977 | 1,960 | 2,763 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 20 | 23 | 35 | 48 | 66 |
| Change in working capital | -99 | -186 | -296 | -295 | -305 |
| Others | 83 | 155 | 268 | 329 | 404 |
| Investing cash flow | -36 | 205 | -80 | -100 | -120 |
| Capex | -36 | -60 | -80 | -100 | -120 |
| Change in investment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Others | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free cash flow | 20 | 405 | 904 | 1,943 | 2,808 |
| Financing cash flow | 2 | 378 | - | - | - |
| Change in Capital | - | 385 | - | - | - |
| Net Change in Debt | - | 0 | - | - | - |
| Others | 2 | -7 | - | - | - |
| Exchange influence | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | 21 | 1,048 | 904 | 1,943 | 2,808 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue growth | 126.3 | 205.7 | 97.8 | 67.7 | 34.9 |
| Operating profit growth | 4126.9 | 453.8 | 112.4 | 80.4 | 38.5 |
| Net profit growth | 791.7 | 409.2 | 95.7 | 77.1 | 38.0 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 65.0 | 68.1 | 66.3 | 64.9 | 64.4 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 26.4 | 47.8 | 51.4 | 55.3 | 56.8 |
| Net profit margin | 29.7 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 51.8 | 53.0 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 16.1 | 28.8 | 35.0 | 37.5 | 33.5 |
| ROE | 19.1 | 32.1 | 38.8 | 40.5 | 35.7 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | - | - | - | - | - |
| Interest Coverage | - | - | - | - | - |
| Current Ratio | 6.6 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 16.2 |
| Quick Ratio | 5.5 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 15.1 |
| Net debt/equity | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash |
Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
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evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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