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報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507

更新 2026-05-18

PDF 原檔:報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

King Slide Works (2059 TT)

Target price:

TWD5,888.00 (from TWD3,880.00)

Share price (7 May):

TWD4,840.00

|

Up/downside:

+21.7%

Upgrading: 1Q26 review; riding a growing TAM

  • Amazon ASIC ramp-up and TPU mix shift drive strong growth
  • Leading market share position benefits from regular server demand
  • Upgrading to Buy (1) rating; raising 12M TP to TWD5,888

What's new: We review King Slide's 1Q26 results after its earnings call.

What's the impact: 1Q26 results beat expectations on FX gains. King Slide's 1Q26 earnings came in at TWD3.5bn (EPS: TWD36.6), which was 10% and 18% higher than our and street expectations, respectively, due to higher-than-expected FX gains. While revenue was TWD5.5bn (up 10% QoQ and 38% YoY), largely on track with our expectations, the gross margin rose by 1.6pp QoQ due to the favourable FX trend (avg. USD/TWD FX rate was +2% in 1Q26 vs. +4% in 4Q25). However, the operating margin declined by 2.1pp to 67.1% due to a one-time freight expense of c.TWD200m. Lastly, net profit was boosted by higher-than-expected nonoperating gains of TWD697m (mainly FX gains of TWD476m).

Business outlook. As we highlighted in our first-take memo (link here), we expect King Slide's market share loss with Nvidia to be fully priced in, while rising demand for regular servers and its dominant c.70% share in the AI server rail kit market position the company well to sustain positive revenue momentum. We believe King Slide's April sales strength was driven by its role as the main rail kit supplier for Amazon's new ASIC AI servers, a contribution we expect to become a key growth driver into 2026. On the ASIC front, we forecast revenue to grow 73% YoY in 2026, reflecting shipment volume increases and ASP expansion, with TPU potentially playing a meaningful role in the ASIC revenue mix by 2027 as the overall TAM continues to scale. For CPUs, expanding demand further benefits King Slide, given its commanding c.60% global share of the regular server market, which underpins our 78%/41% regular server revenue YoY growth estimates for 2026/27E, reflecting the strength we are seeing in the server supply chain. Beyond compute, Nvidia's GTC showcase of comprehensive rack solutions, including switches and power, could generate an extra 300600k sets of rail kit demand by 2028E, representing an upside opportunity for King Slide. Taken together, these tailwinds across AI and regular server markets reinforce our positive outlook on King Slide.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-27E EPS by 21-27% to factor in the 1Q26 results. Therefore, we raise our 12M TP to TWD5,888, based on a PER of 30x (high end of its past-3-year range of 10-32x; raised from 26x on a higher earnings growth trajectory), applied to our 4-quarter forward EPS forecast. Given the 2025-28E earnings CAGR of 30%, implying a PEG of 1.0, we think our valuation is not demanding and upgrade King Slide to Buy (1). Key downside risk: worse-than-expected demand for AI servers.

How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 15-19% above consensus, likely as we are more positive on King Slide's revenue.

7 May 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 16.1 25.6 n.a.
Net profit change 21.3 27 n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change 21.3 27 n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507_001
12-month range 1,880.00-4,840.00
Market cap (USDbn) 14.66
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 87.22
Shares outstanding (m) 95
Major shareholder Ming Wei Global Co., Ltd. (6.7%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 27,589 33,514 38,185
Operating profit (m) 18,855 22,841 26,018
Net profit (m) 16,442 19,227 21,453
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 172.529 201.763 225.115
EPS change (%) 67.0 16.9 11.6
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 19.3 14.5 (10.6)
PER (x) 28.1 24.0 21.5
Dividend yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.4
DPS 51.0 60.0 66.0
PBR (x) 11.6 8.7 6.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.0 17.6 14.9
ROE (%) 48.6 41.4 35.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

King Slide: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 23,764 27,589 23,990 26,691 33,514 28,594 n.a. 38,185 41,802
Diff (%) 16.1% 15.0% 25.6% 17.2% n.a. -8.7%
Gross Margin (%) 75.1% 76.1% 76.2% 74.9% 75.1% 75.7% n.a. 75.1% 75.5%
Operating profit 16,159 18,855 16,615 18,139 22,841 20,416 n.a. 26,018 27,436
Op Margin (%) 68.0% 68.3% 69.3% 68.0% 68.2% 71.4% n.a. 68.1% 65.6%
Net profit 13,554 16,442 13,784 15,146 19,227 16,799 n.a. 21,453 23,991
EPS (TWD) 142.23 172.53 144.65 158.93 201.76 176.29 n.a. 225.11 251.75
Diff (%) 21.3% 19.3% 27.0% 14.5% n.a. -10.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 5,450 7,195 7,122 7,822 7,775 8,578 8,463 8,698 17,501 27,589 33,514 38,185
COGS -1,213 -1,747 -1,729 -1,906 -1,908 -2,123 -2,096 -2,209 -4,192 -6,594 -8,336 -9,495
Gross profit 4,237 5,449 5,393 5,916 5,868 6,455 6,367 6,488 13,309 20,994 25,178 28,690
Operating expenses -582 -504 -506 -548 -544 -596 -588 -609 -1,220 -2,139 -2,337 -2,672
Operating profit 3,654 4,945 4,887 5,368 5,323 5,859 5,779 5,879 12,089 18,855 22,841 26,018
Non-operating profit 697 195 398 399 396 398 198 198 343 1,689 1,191 795
Pre-tax profit 4,352 5,139 5,286 5,768 5,720 6,257 5,977 6,078 12,423 20,545 24,031 26,813
Income taxes -866 -1,027 -1,057 -1,153 -1,143 -1,251 -1,195 -1,215 -2,586 -4,103 -4,804 -5,360
Net profit 3,486 4,112 4,229 4,615 4,576 5,006 4,782 4,863 9,837 16,442 19,227 21,453
Net EPS (TWD) 36.58 43.15 44.38 48.42 48.02 52.53 50.18 51.03 103.23 172.53 201.76 225.11
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 77.7% 75.7% 75.7% 75.6% 75.5% 75.3% 75.2% 74.6% 76.0% 76.1% 75.1% 75.1%
Operating margin 67.1% 68.7% 68.6% 68.6% 68.5% 68.3% 68.3% 67.6% 69.1% 68.3% 68.2% 68.1%
Pre-tax margin 79.9% 71.4% 74.2% 73.7% 73.6% 72.9% 70.6% 69.9% 71.0% 74.5% 71.7% 70.2%
Net margin 64.0% 57.1% 59.4% 59.0% 58.9% 58.4% 56.5% 55.9% 56.2% 59.6% 57.4% 56.2%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 38% 70% 63% 58% 43% 19% 19% 11% 73% 58% 21% 14%
Gross profit 41% 66% 66% 57% 38% 18% 18% 10% 90% 58% 20% 14%
Operating profit 34% 67% 64% 57% 46% 18% 18% 10% 98% 56% 21% 14%
Pre-tax profit 39% 472% 32% 31% 31% 22% 13% 5% 59% 65% 17% 12%
Net profit 39% 570% 32% 31% 31% 22% 13% 5% 60% 67% 17% 12%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 10% 32% -1% 10% -1% 10% -1% 3%
Gross profit 12% 29% -1% 10% -1% 10% -1% 2%
Operating profit 7% 35% -1% 10% -1% 10% -1% 2%
Pre-tax profit -1% 18% 3% 9% -1% 9% -4% 2%
Net profit -1% 18% 3% 9% -1% 9% -4% 2%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide: 1Q26 comparison table

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff% Consensus Diff%
Revenue 5,450 10% 38% 5,495 -1% 5,114 7%
Gross profit 4,237 12% 41% 4,156 2% 3,874 9%
Gross margin (%) 77.7% 75.6% 75.8%
Operating profit 3,654 7% 34% 4,048 -10% 3,520 4%
Operating margin (%) 67.1% 68.4% 68.8%
Pre-tax profit 4,352 -1% 39% 3,951 10% 4,742 -8%
Net profit 3,486 -1% 39% 3,161 10% 2,945 18%
EPS (TWD) 36.58 -1% 39% 33.17 10% 30.91 18%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

King Slide: 1-year forward PER bands

報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507_002

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide: revenue breakdown

報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507_003

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server railkit shipment (k) 3,938.0 4,477.0 3,556.9 2,711.9 6,021.2 10,264.3 14,291.6 17,836.8
HGX railkit shipment (k) 0.0 0.0 90.0 360.0 270.0 248.5 180.0 85.0
NVL railkit shipment (k) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 636.7 1,392.2 1,560.8 1,522.5

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Regular server railkit sales 4,489 5,081 2,678 2,451 6,126 10,934 15,435 20,334
AI server railkit sales 0 0 982 5,668 9,122 14,542 15,785 15,470
Other Revenue 1,853 2,717 2,103 2,011 2,252 2,112 2,294 2,381
Total Revenue 6,342 7,799 5,763 10,129 17,501 27,589 33,514 38,185
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (2,987) (3,333) (2,231) (3,128) (4,192) (6,594) (8,336) (9,495)
SG&A (386) (474) (408) (550) (743) (1,332) (1,332) (1,527)
Other op.expenses (250) (239) (235) (351) (477) (807) (1,005) (1,146)
Operating profit 2,720 3,753 2,888 6,101 12,089 18,855 22,841 26,018
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 10 159 495 653 692 711 716 716
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (134) 1,162 43 1,035 (350) 978 475 78
Pre-tax profit 2,596 5,073 3,426 7,789 12,431 20,545 24,031 26,813
Tax (523) (1,017) (721) (1,633) (2,586) (4,103) (4,804) (5,360)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 2,073 4,056 2,704 6,156 9,845 16,442 19,227 21,453
Net profit (adjusted) 2,073 4,056 2,704 6,156 9,845 16,442 19,227 21,453
EPS (reported)(TWD) 21.748 42.563 28.378 64.594 103.309 172.529 201.763 225.115
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 21.748 42.563 28.378 64.594 103.309 172.529 201.763 225.115
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 21.748 42.563 28.378 64.594 103.309 172.529 201.763 225.115
DPS (TWD) 6.120 10.880 20.000 14.190 32.200 51.000 60.000 66.000
EBIT 2,720 3,753 2,888 6,101 12,089 18,855 22,841 26,018
EBITDA 2,934 3,977 3,157 6,429 12,552 19,459 23,665 27,030

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 2,596 5,073 3,426 7,789 12,431 20,545 24,031 26,813
Depreciation and amortisation 214 224 269 328 464 604 824 1,012
Tax paid (523) (1,017) (721) (1,633) (2,586) (4,103) (4,804) (5,360)
Change in working capital (997) (209) 52 (1,598) 2,097 (1,079) (649) (502)
Other operational CF items 228 (133) 252 301 0 0 0 (0)
Cash flow from operations 1,518 3,938 3,278 5,187 12,405 15,966 19,403 21,963
Capex (768) (824) (375) (354) (1,750) (2,759) (2,346) (2,673)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (1,495) 389 215 884 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 1 (1) (0) (0) 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (2,261) (436) (161) 530 (1,750) (2,759) (2,346) (2,673)
Change in debt 257 448 (32) (130) 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (583) (1,037) (1,906) (1,352) (3,069) (4,860) (5,718) (6,290)
Other financing CF items (33) (35) (28) (26) 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (359) (624) (1,966) (1,508) (3,069) (4,860) (5,718) (6,290)
Forex effect/others (22) 788 (141) 676 0 0 0 0
Change in cash (1,124) 3,666 1,010 4,886 7,587 8,347 11,339 13,000
Free cash flow 751 3,114 2,903 4,833 10,655 13,207 17,057 19,290

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 9,421 12,698 13,494 17,495 25,074 33,421 44,759 57,760
Inventory 926 920 1,012 1,231 919 1,445 1,827 2,081
Accounts receivable 1,774 1,866 1,656 3,180 1,678 2,645 3,214 3,662
Other current assets 31 36 40 43 43 43 43 43
Total current assets 12,151 15,520 16,202 21,949 27,713 37,554 49,843 63,545
Fixed assets 2,446 2,955 3,192 3,287 4,574 6,729 8,251 9,911
Goodwill & intangibles 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2
Other non-current assets 832 759 1,184 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234
Total assets 15,433 19,236 20,581 26,472 33,523 45,519 59,330 74,693
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 469 374 309 441 724 1,138 1,439 1,639
Other current liabilities 1,211 1,599 1,866 2,708 2,708 2,708 2,708 2,708
Total current liabilities 1,680 1,973 2,174 3,149 3,432 3,846 4,147 4,347
Long-term debt 452 895 741 615 615 615 615 615
Other non-current liabilities 698 730 1,229 1,416 1,416 1,416 1,416 1,416
Total liabilities 2,830 3,598 4,145 5,180 5,462 5,877 6,178 6,378
Share capital 953 953 953 953 953 953 953 953
Reserves/R.E./others 11,650 14,685 15,483 20,339 27,108 38,689 52,199 67,362
Shareholders' equity 12,603 15,638 16,436 21,292 28,061 39,642 53,152 68,315
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 15,433 19,236 20,581 26,472 33,523 45,519 59,330 74,693
EV 452,269 449,434 448,485 444,358 436,779 428,432 417,093 404,093
Net debt/(cash) (8,969) (11,804) (12,753) (16,880) (24,459) (32,806) (44,145) (57,145)
BVPS (TWD) 132.253 164.101 172.473 223.431 294.457 415.986 557.749 716.864

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 32.1 23.0 (26.1) 75.8 72.8 57.6 21.5 13.9
EBITDA (YoY) 36.0 35.5 (20.6) 103.6 95.3 55.0 21.6 14.2
Operating profit (YoY) 38.6 38.0 (23.0) 111.2 98.2 56.0 21.1 13.9
Net profit (YoY) 78.0 95.7 (33.3) 127.6 59.9 67.0 16.9 11.6
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 78.0 95.7 (33.3) 127.6 59.9 67.0 16.9 11.6
Gross-profit margin 52.9 57.3 61.3 69.1 76.0 76.1 75.1 75.1
EBITDA margin 46.3 51.0 54.8 63.5 71.7 70.5 70.6 70.8
Operating-profit margin 42.9 48.1 50.1 60.2 69.1 68.3 68.2 68.1
Net profit margin 32.7 52.0 46.9 60.8 56.3 59.6 57.4 56.2
ROAE 17.5 28.7 16.9 32.6 39.9 48.6 41.4 35.3
ROAA 14.4 23.4 13.6 26.2 32.8 41.6 36.7 32.0
ROCE 22.3 25.4 17.1 31.2 47.8 54.7 48.6 42.4
ROIC 73.5 80.3 60.7 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 20.2 20.0 21.1 21.0 20.8 20.0 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 83.0 85.2 111.6 87.1 50.7 28.6 31.9 32.9
Current ratio (x) 7.2 7.9 7.5 7.0 8.1 9.8 12.0 14.6
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 50.1 50.0 47.0 50.0 49.9 49.4 34.8 32.7
Free cash flow yield 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.0 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1986, King Slide Works started as a rail kit manufacturer. Leveraging its years of mechanism design experience, the company soon started manufacturing server rail kit in 2000. With 40 years of development, King Slide's product portfolio now comprises server rail kit, kitchen rail kit and hinge. The company is headquartered in Kaohsiung city with two production sites including King Slide Works Co., LTD (ball bearing slide and hinge) and King Slide Technology Co., LTD (server rail kit and functional kitchen rail kit). King Slide also owns sales offices in the US and China. It was listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 2008.

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 King Slide's board consists of 7 directors, including 4 independent directors. The total number of directors is lower than that of other listed companies in our coverage. King Slide held 6 board meetings in 2024; the actual attendee rate was 100%. Most of the board members are King Slide's founder's family members, which we believe presents downside risks to independent governance. However, the independent directors have diversified backgrounds with expertise in accounting and management, a positive for the board's quality.
Capital management 2 King Slide declared a DPS of TWD32.2 in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 50%. The payout ratio was in line with the level of 46-53% during 2012-22. As a rail kit manufacturer, King Slide is set to deliver solid revenue growth and FCF over our forecast horizon amidst strong ASP increase in the AI server market.
Related party & transaction 1 The company did not report any related-party transactions in 2024. We see limited risks from related party transactions.
S Product design & lifecycle management 2 King Slide applies life cycle thinking and the 3R principle (Reduce/Reuse/Recycle) across its product design to minimise environmental impact. Its green designs focus on controlling environmentally sensitive substances, using non toxic materials, and enabling easy assembly/disassembly to extend product lifespans. The company continues to advance its green product program. Based on 2024 shipments, carbon reductions amounted to 68,067 metric tons of CO2e versus 2023, underscoring progress in lowering the environmental footprint of its products.
S GHG emissions 2 King Slide is cutting greenhouse-gas emissions through targeted energy-efficient upgrades and process improvements. Across its Works and Technology sites, the company is replacing older motors and lighting with more efficient alternatives, introducing a formal GHG-reducing inventory, and refining equipment controls to eliminate unnecessary idling. These practical measures reduce electricity use, improve operational efficiency and lower the company's carbon footprint in a cost-effective, scalable way.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 3 Feb 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

Daiwa

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507_003.png 21KB 真資料圖 營收結構堆疊長條圖,橫軸 2024 至 2028E,圖例 AI server(深藍)/Regular server(灰)/Kitchen(青)/Others(深灰),AI server 占比標示由 56%(2024)逐年降至 41%(2028E),Regular server 占比則由 24% 升至 53%