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報告_大和_南電8046_20260902

更新 2026-09-05

PDF 原檔:報告_大和_南電8046_20260902_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

2 September 2026

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT)

Target price:

TWD2,460.00 (from TWD2,444.00)

Share price (2 Sep): TWD1,200.00

|

Up/downside:

+105.0%

Spec upgrade to drive additional ABF substrate demand

  • Near-term outlook largely on track with our estimates
  • We believe structural changes should extend the current up-cycle
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; raising 12-month TP to TWD2,460

What's new: We hosted an online conference call for NYPCB on 2 September, after trading hours. Overall, we believe the price hike trend is largely on track with our estimates despite a short hiccup in 4Q26E (for more details, please refer to our earlier note, Escalating price hike in substrates). Looking ahead, we believe the trend towards enlarging body sizes and multiple core layers in ABF substrates and the supply-demand imbalance in BT substrates will be key growth drivers for NYPCB.

What's the impact: Near-term update. We are comfortable with our revenue growth estimate of c.20% QoQ in 3Q26E, given ongoing price hikes and a rising utilisation rate at Kunshan (likely to reach 100% in 4Q26E). We believe the yield rate at Kunshan still has room to improve, which could negatively impact the gross margin (GM) performance in 3Q26E. That said, compared with July, we expect the GM to improve 6-7pp MoM in August given the rising yield rate, and remain confident of a c.30% GM in 3Q26E. We expect NYPCB to achieve higher price hikes than other substrate vendors, as it does not sign long-term agreements with end customers. However, NYPCB has stated that it currently has no intention to hike BT substrate prices further from 4Q26, as raw material price hikes have eased recently; as such, we have accounted for it in our model. Lastly, NYPCB mentioned that it has received new AI HDI orders from a US-based ODM, which will result in its PCB segment reaching c.30% QoQ revenue growth and operating profit from 4Q26E.

Long-term investment thesis. We believe a meaningful spec upgrade is also likely to occur in ABF substrates, as core layer counts will need to increase their rigidity to handle the increasing body size of substrates. This trend would digest more ABF capacity and relevant raw materials (eg, Tglass) than just unit growth from 2028E. Also, we believe this would make the current upcycle last longer than previous ones. As for BT substrates, we believe ASP growth will accelerate again as two key players are gradually reducing their BT capacities. Thus, we maintain our BT ASP assumption for 2027E despite a lower-than-expected price hike in 4Q26E.

What we recommend: While we lower the 2026E EPS by 4% on a reduced BT price hike in 4Q26E, we keep the 2027-28E EPS largely unchanged. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12-month TP to TWD2,460 (from TWD2,444), based on an unchanged target PER of 49x applied to the 1-year forward EPS. Downside risk: weaker-than-expected demand for switches.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 10-41% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more bullish view on ABF/BT ASP hikes.

Daiwa

5

→

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (1.0) 1.1 1.7
Net profit change (4.4) 0.2 1.3
Core EPS (FD) change (4.4) 0.2 1.3

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 179.00-1,415.00
Market cap (USDbn) 24.50
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 528.50
Shares outstanding (m) 646
Major shareholder Nan Ya Plastics Corp (67.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 59,491 114,084 175,704
Operating profit (m) 14,616 49,016 91,550
Net profit (m) 12,163 40,098 73,747
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 18.824 62.056 114.130
EPS change (%) 524.8 229.7 83.9
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 10.4 41.4 39.3
PER (x) 63.7 19.3 10.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 2.6 4.8
DPS 9.4 31.0 57.1
PBR (x) 13.6 8.5 5.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.8 13.2 7.1
ROE (%) 23.6 54.0 62.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

NYPCB: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 60,064 59,491 59,245 112,828 114,084 97,642 172,751 175,704 145,230
Diff (%) -1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 16.8% 1.7% 21.0%
Gross Margin (%) 27.8% 27.6% 24.8% 44.9% 44.8% 37.2% 53.2% 53.5% 46.6%
Operating profit 14,962 14,616 12,962 48,457 49,016 34,350 88,579 91,550 62,537
Op Margin (%) 24.9% 24.6% 21.9% 42.9% 43.0% 35.2% 51.3% 52.1% 43.1%
Net profit 1,275 12,163 11,017 40,031 40,098 28,367 72,783 73,747 52,953
EPS (TWD) 19.69 18.82 17.05 61.95 62.06 43.90 112.64 114.13 81.95
Diff (%) -4.4% 10.4% 0.2% 41.4% 1.3% 39.3%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

NYPCB: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 11,177 13,575 16,326 18,412 20,926 27,086 31,778 34,294 40,173 59,491 114,084 175,704
COGS (9,406) (10,216) (11,379) (12,075) (12,844) (15,645) (16,942) (17,497) (36,526) (43,075) (62,928) (81,623)
Gross profit 1,771 3,360 4,948 6,337 8,082 11,441 14,835 16,797 3,647 16,415 51,156 94,080
Operating expenses (419) (460) (460) (460) (490) (520) (550) (580) (1,665) (1,799) (2,140) (2,530)
Operating profit 1,352 2,899 4,488 5,877 7,592 10,921 14,285 16,217 1,982 14,616 49,016 91,550
Non-operating profit 246 76 170 172 171 176 172 165 363 665 684 633
Pre-tax profit 1,598 2,976 4,658 6,049 7,764 11,096 14,457 16,382 2,346 15,280 49,700 92,184
Net profit 1,309 2,262 3,633 4,960 6,366 9,099 11,855 12,778 1,947 12,163 40,098 73,747
Net EPS (TWD) 2.03 3.50 5.62 7.68 9.85 14.08 18.35 19.78 3.0 18.8 62.1 114.1
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 15.8% 24.7% 30.3% 34.4% 38.6% 42.2% 46.7% 49.0% 9.1% 27.6% 44.8% 53.5%
Operating margin 12.1% 21.4% 27.5% 31.9% 36.3% 40.3% 45.0% 47.3% 4.9% 24.6% 43.0% 52.1%
Pre-tax margin 14.3% 21.9% 28.5% 32.9% 37.1% 41.0% 45.5% 47.8% 5.8% 25.7% 43.6% 52.5%
Net margin 11.7% 16.7% 22.3% 26.9% 30.4% 33.6% 37.3% 37.3% 4.8% 20.4% 35.1% 42.0%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 32% 42% 49% 65% 87% 100% 95% 86% 24% 48% 92% 54%
Gross profit 312% 337% 371% 353% 356% 241% 200% 165% 920% 350% 212% 84%
Operating profit 3986% 692% 623% 510% 461% 277% 218% 176% -257% 637% 235% 87%
Pre-tax profit 524% -1413% 413% 329% 386% 273% 210% 171% 1338% 551% 225% 85%
Net profit 531% -1307% 401% 313% 386% 302% 226% 158% 856% 525% 230% 84%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 0% 21% 20% 13% 14% 29% 17% 8%
Gross profit 27% 90% 47% 28% 28% 42% 30% 13%
Operating profit 40% 114% 55% 31% 29% 44% 31% 14%
Pre-tax profit 13% 86% 57% 30% 28% 43% 30% 13%
Net profit 9% 73% 61% 37% 28% 43% 30% 8%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

NYPCB: 1-year forward PER bands

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 2 September 2026

NYPCB: revenue breakdown by product

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (m) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (m) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (m) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
ABF 25,805 38,250 25,758 15,797 22,701 33,662 72,849 123,077
BT 15,987 16,905 9,393 9,880 12,153 21,136 35,496 47,002
Other Revenue 10,437 9,492 7,101 6,606 5,320 4,692 5,739 5,625
Total Revenue 52,228 64,647 42,253 32,283 40,173 59,491 114,084 175,704
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (37,346) (38,779) (34,075) (31,926) (36,526) (43,075) (62,928) (81,623)
SG&A (2,012) (2,293) (1,847) (1,624) (1,665) (1,799) (2,140) (2,530)
Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating profit 12,871 23,575 6,330 (1,267) 1,982 14,616 49,016 91,550
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (32) (22) (19) (18) (14) (13) (13) (13)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 257 1,809 796 1,447 377 677 697 646
Pre-tax profit 13,095 25,362 7,107 163 2,346 15,280 49,700 92,184
Tax (2,514) (5,946) (1,290) 41 (399) (3,117) (9,601) (18,437)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 10,582 19,416 5,817 204 1,947 12,163 40,098 73,747
Net profit (adjusted) 10,582 19,416 5,817 204 1,947 12,163 40,098 73,747
EPS (reported)(TWD) 16.376 30.047 9.002 0.315 3.013 18.824 62.056 114.130
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 16.376 30.047 9.002 0.315 3.013 18.824 62.056 114.130
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 16.376 30.047 9.002 0.315 3.013 18.824 62.056 114.130
DPS (TWD) 10.000 18.000 5.500 1.000 1.000 9.412 31.028 57.065
EBIT 12,871 23,575 6,330 (1,267) 1,982 14,616 49,016 91,550
EBITDA 16,505 27,919 12,226 5,193 8,876 21,823 55,502 97,388

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 13,095 25,362 7,107 163 2,346 15,280 49,700 92,184
Depreciation and amortisation 3,634 4,344 5,896 6,460 6,894 7,207 6,487 5,838
Tax paid (2,514) (5,946) (1,290) 41 (399) (3,117) (9,601) (18,437)
Change in working capital (2,337) (2,805) 7,510 (1,779) (3,218) (7,367) (14,267) (13,269)
Other operational CF items 4,050 11,352 (2,709) (2,725) (2,596) (879) 0 0
Cash flow from operations 15,929 32,307 16,513 2,160 3,027 11,125 32,318 66,315
Capex (8,451) (16,922) (11,779) (2,379) (2,422) (1,992) (1,892) (1,798)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 3,061 53 (471) (223) 700 (677) 77 96
Cash flow from investing (5,391) (16,869) (12,251) (2,602) (1,723) (2,669) (1,815) (1,702)
Change in debt 983 (1,981) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,197) (6,462) (11,631) (3,554) (646) (646) (6,082) (20,049)
Other financing CF items (1,678) (222) (180) (289) (241) (283) 0 0
Cash flow from financing (2,892) (8,665) (11,811) (3,843) (887) (929) (6,082) (20,049)
Forex effect/others (25) 76 (166) 436 (309) 417 218 237
Change in cash 7,621 6,850 (7,714) (3,849) 109 7,944 24,639 44,801
Free cash flow 7,478 15,386 4,734 (219) 605 9,133 30,425 64,518

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 2 September 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 13,194 20,044 12,567 8,587 8,706 16,696 41,335 86,136
Inventory 5,348 5,803 3,896 4,101 5,068 6,286 9,093 11,557
Accounts receivable 11,062 14,893 6,898 6,996 9,552 16,060 29,628 42,596
Other current assets 572 570 1,113 991 296 1,060 1,060 1,060
Total current assets 30,176 41,310 24,474 20,675 23,623 40,101 81,116 141,349
Fixed assets 25,668 39,926 45,476 41,804 37,085 32,239 27,645 23,605
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 502 514 487 460 500 575 497 402
Total assets 56,345 81,750 70,437 62,938 61,207 72,915 109,258 165,355
Short-term debt 1,669 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 6,710 8,895 5,808 3,672 3,979 5,283 7,391 9,554
Other current liabilities 2,137 4,794 3,292 2,992 3,210 3,715 3,715 3,715
Total current liabilities 10,516 13,689 9,100 6,664 7,189 8,998 11,107 13,269
Long-term debt 227 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 5,123 14,339 13,429 10,824 7,896 6,843 6,843 6,843
Total liabilities 15,866 28,028 22,530 17,488 15,085 15,841 17,950 20,112
Share capital 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462
Reserves/R.E./others 34,017 47,261 41,446 38,989 39,661 50,612 84,847 138,782
Shareholders' equity 40,479 53,723 47,908 45,450 46,123 57,074 91,309 145,243
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 56,345 81,750 70,437 62,938 61,207 72,915 109,258 165,355
EV 764,101 755,355 762,832 766,812 766,693 758,703 734,064 689,263
Net debt/(cash) (11,298) (20,044) (12,567) (8,587) (8,706) (16,696) (41,335) (86,136)
BVPS (TWD) 62.645 83.141 74.142 70.339 71.379 88.327 141.308 224.777

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 35.6 23.8 (34.6) (23.6) 24.4 48.1 91.8 54.0
EBITDA (YoY) 134.4 69.2 (56.2) (57.5) 70.9 145.9 154.3 75.5
Operating profit (YoY) 213.3 83.2 (73.1) n.a. n.a. 637.3 235.4 86.8
Net profit (YoY) 188.6 83.5 (70.0) (96.5) 855.6 524.8 229.7 83.9
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 188.6 83.5 (70.0) (96.5) 855.6 524.8 229.7 83.9
Gross-profit margin 28.5 40.0 19.4 1.1 9.1 27.6 44.8 53.5
EBITDA margin 31.6 43.2 28.9 16.1 22.1 36.7 48.7 55.4
Operating-profit margin 24.6 36.5 15.0 n.a. 4.9 24.6 43.0 52.1
Net profit margin 20.3 30.0 13.8 0.6 4.8 20.4 35.1 42.0
ROAE 29.1 41.2 11.4 0.4 4.3 23.6 54.0 62.4
ROAA 21.0 28.1 7.6 0.3 3.1 18.1 44.0 53.7
ROCE 34.0 49.1 12.5 n.a. 4.3 28.3 66.1 77.4
ROIC 36.6 57.4 15.0 n.a. 4.4 29.9 87.5 n.a
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 19.2 23.4 18.2 0.0 17.0 20.4 19.3 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 70.7 73.3 94.1 78.5 75.2 78.6 73.1 75.0
Current ratio (x) 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.3 4.5 7.3 10.7
Net interest cover (x) 406.2 1,128.2 367.9 10.3 170.8 1,188.5 3,791.2 7,014.4
Net dividend payout 61.1 59.9 61.2 n.a. 33.2 50.0 50.0 50.0
Free cash flow yield 1.0 2.0 0.6 n.a. 0.1 1.2 3.9 8.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Nan Ya PCB originated as one of the business divisions of Nan Ya Plastics Corporation before transforming into a subsidiary in 1997, specialising in the manufacturing of printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates. The company's primary end applications include networking (c.50%), PCs (c.20%), consumer electronics (c.10%), automotive (c.10%) and other sectors. Its manufacturing facilities are located in Taiwan and China.

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 2 September 2026

Daiwa

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 2 September 2026

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 Nan Ya PCB's board of directors (BoD) is responsible for overseeing the company's operations and ensuring adherence to corporate governance principles. The board comprises individuals with diverse expertise, contributing to effective decision-making and strategic planning. The company emphasizes the importance of corporate governance as a set of processes, customs, policies, laws, and institutions affecting the way the corporation is directed, administered, or controlled. Principal stakeholders include stockholders, management, and the board of directors, among others.
Capital management 2 Nan Ya PCB maintains a prudent approach to capital management, ensuring financial stability and the availability of resources necessary for operational and strategic initiatives. The company's financial statements reflect a solid capital structure, supporting its growth and sustainability objectives.
transaction Related party & 1 The company adheres to strict policies regarding related party transactions to maintain transparency and fairness. Such transactions are conducted under terms comparable to those with independent third parties and are disclosed in financial reports to ensure compliance with regulatory standards and corporate governance best practices. For example, the company's consolidated financial statements provide details on transactions with related parties, ensuring transparency and accountability.
S Supply chain management 1 Nan Ya PCB is committed to sustainable supply chain management, emphasizing environmental protection, procurement policies, and social responsibility. The company has established a comprehensive procurement policy that integrates sustainability considerations, ensuring that suppliers adhere to ethical standards and environmental regulations. This commitment is part of the company's broader sustainable responsibility policy, which includes areas such as corporate governance, environmental protection, and social welfare.
E Data security 1 While specific details on Nan Ya PCB's data security measures are not extensively disclosed in the available sources, the company recognizes the importance of information security in its operations. As part of its corporate governance framework, Nan Ya PCB is likely to implement standard data protection practices to safeguard sensitive information and ensure compliance with relevant regulations. Stakeholders are encouraged to consult the company's official communications or contact the company directly for detailed information on data security policies.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 7 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Daiwa