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報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511

更新 2026-05-18

PDF 原檔:報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

Nan Juen International (6584 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,022.00 (from TWD1,000.00)

Share price (11 May):

TWD687.00

|

Up/downside:

+48.8%

1Q26 results review: demand outlook remains intact

  • CSP rail kit slowdown driven by component shortages, not demand
  • Nan Juen well-positioned to gain share in AI servers
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating with higher 12-month TP of TWD1,022

What's new: We provide an update on Nan Juen after its 1Q26 results.

What's the impact: 1Q26 results beat on FX gains. Nan Juen's 1Q26 earnings came in at TWD235m (EPS: TWD3.38), which was 9% and 13% higher than our and the street's expectations, respectively, due to higherthan-expected FX gains. While revenue was TWD867m (up 22% QoQ and 74% YoY), gross margin increased by 2.4pp QoQ to 41.6% due to the favourable product mix (server sales mix surpassed 70%). Accordingly, operating margin improved by 4.1pp to 29.5% given the operating leverage. Lastly, net profit was boosted by higher-than expected non-operating gains of TWD39m (mainly from FX gains).

Business outlook. Management is observing a slower-than-expected monthly shipment trend for its CSP regular server rail kit in April, a softness it anticipates will persist through 2Q26. However, as we understand it, this remains within the normal range of fluctuation, considering the shipment levels in 2025, and does not appear to signal any meaningful structural deterioration in demand. While we have made only modest downward adjustments to our model to reflect this near-term softness, we do not view this as a cause for significant concern at this stage. Despite the near-term weakness, we remain confident in the demand outlook for regular server rail kits, as the current slowdown appears to be primarily driven by component shortages (ie, CPUs, memory, and other key parts) rather than any fundamental weakening in end demand. As such, we believe that deferred demand is likely to be pushed out to 2H26 and into 2027, which should provide a meaningful tailwind for shipment recovery in the latter part of the forecast period. For AI servers, the status of GPU and ASIC server shipments has not changed materially from our previous update, and we continue to monitor the space closely for any developments. We maintain a positive view on its share gain story within AI servers by its strong product positioning and customer relationships. At the same time, we continue to see its regular server business as a key and stable demand, reinforcing our overall outlook on the company.

What we recommend: We lower our 2026E EPS by 4.9% but raise our 2027-28E EPS by 0.1-3.8% to factor in 1Q26 results. We therefore raise our 12M TP to TWD1,022, based on an unchanged PER of 36x (vs. its past-3-year range of 11-90x), applied to our 4-quarter forward EPS forecast. We reaffirm Buy (1) on Nan Juen. Key downside risk: worse-thanexpected AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 0.1-30% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more positive on Nan Juen's revenue.

11 May 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249

allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (4.0) 4.4 0.8
Net profit change (4.9) 3.8 0.1
Core EPS (FD) change (4.9) 3.8 0.1

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511_001
報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511_002
12-month range 123.50-805.00
Market cap (USDbn) 1.52
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 20.70
Shares outstanding (m) 70
Major shareholder Ho-Ying lnvestment Co., Ltd. (12.6%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 4,327 7,417 8,190
Operating profit (m) 1,442 3,111 3,869
Net profit (m) 1,187 2,492 3,098
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 17.045 35.779 44.477
EPS change (%) 220.9 109.9 24.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (1.3) 29.8 0.1
PER (x) 40.3 19.2 15.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 1.3 2.5
DPS 2.7 9.0 17.0
PBR (x) 11.5 8.0 6.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.6 13.4 10.4
ROE (%) 32.6 49.1 44.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 11 May 2026

Nan Juen: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 4,506 4,327 4,247 7,105 7,417 5,718 8,128 8,190 8,128
Diff (%) -4.0% 1.9% 4.4% 29.7% 0.8% 0.8%
Gross Margin (%) 46.6% 45.4% 44.6% 54.0% 53.8% 53.4% 59.2% 58.9% 59.2%
Operating profit 1,556 1,442 1,487 2,995 3,111 2,391 3,864 3,869 3,864
Op Margin (%) 34.5% 33.3% 35.0% 42.2% 41.9% 41.8% 47.5% 47.2% 47.5%
Net profit 1,248 1,187 1,203 2,400 2,492 1,920 3,094 3,098 3,094
EPS (TWD) 17.91 17.04 17.26 34.45 35.78 27.56 44.42 44.48 44.41
Diff (%) -4.9% -1.3% 3.8% 29.8% 0.1% 0.1%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 867 918 1,163 1,379 1,711 1,943 1,906 1,858 2,433 4,327 7,417 8,190
COGS -507 -519 -629 -708 -813 -873 -876 -863 -1,582 -2,362 -3,426 -3,363
Gross profit 360 399 534 672 898 1,070 1,029 995 851 1,965 3,991 4,827
Operating expenses -105 -110 -140 -168 -205 -229 -223 -223 -367 -523 -880 -958
Operating profit 255 289 394 503 692 840 806 772 484 1,442 3,111 3,869
Non-operating profit 39 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 48 42 4 4
Pre-tax profit 294 289 395 505 693 841 807 773 532 1,484 3,115 3,872
Income taxes -59 -58 -79 -101 -139 -168 -161 -155 -162 -297 -623 -774
Net profit 235 232 316 404 555 673 646 619 370 1,187 2,492 3,098
Net EPS (TWD) 3.38 3.32 4.54 5.80 7.96 9.66 9.27 8.88 5.31 17.04 35.78 44.48
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 41.6% 43.5% 45.9% 48.7% 52.5% 55.1% 54.0% 53.5% 35.0% 45.4% 53.8% 58.9%
Operating margin 29.5% 31.5% 33.9% 36.5% 40.5% 43.3% 42.3% 41.5% 19.9% 33.3% 41.9% 47.2%
Pre-tax margin 34.0% 31.5% 34.0% 36.6% 40.5% 43.3% 42.4% 41.6% 21.9% 34.3% 42.0% 47.3%
Net margin 27.1% 25.2% 27.2% 29.3% 32.4% 34.6% 33.9% 33.3% 15.2% 27.4% 33.6% 37.8%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 74% 53% 87% 94% 97% 112% 64% 35% 26% 78% 71% 10%
Gross profit 139% 104% 135% 142% 149% 168% 93% 48% 69% 131% 103% 21%
Operating profit 255% 197% 192% 180% 171% 191% 104% 53% 138% 198% 116% 24%
Pre-tax profit 259% 526% 142% 110% 135% 191% 104% 53% 121% 179% 110% 24%
Net profit 260% 2663% 143% 143% 136% 191% 104% 53% 92% 221% 110% 24%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 22% 6% 27% 19% 24% 14% -2% -2%
Gross profit 30% 11% 34% 26% 34% 19% -4% -3%
Operating profit 42% 13% 36% 28% 38% 21% -4% -4%
Pre-tax profit 23% -2% 37% 28% 37% 21% -4% -4%
Net profit 42% -2% 37% 28% 37% 21% -4% -4%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: 1Q26 comparison table

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff% Consensus Diff%
Revenue 867 22% 74% 870 0% 850 2%
Gross profit 360 30% 139% 376 -4% 366 -1%
Gross margin (%) 41.6% 43.3% 43.0%
Operating profit 255 42% 255% 270 -6% 250 2%
Operating margin (%) 29.5% 31.1% 29.4%
Pre-tax profit 294 23% 259% 270 9% 270 9%
Net profit 235 42% 260% 216 9% 208 13%
EPS (TWD) 3.38 42% 260% 3.11 9% 2.99 13%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Nan Juen: 1-year forward PER bands

報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: revenue breakdown

報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server rail kit revenue 0 479.7 357.6 712.1 1,327.1 3,159.2 6,249.7 7,022.2
Regular server rail kit revenue 0 479.7 357.6 712.1 1,270.6 2,369.3 4,244.6 4,609.2
AI server rail kit revenue 0 0 0 0 56.6 789.8 2,005.1 2,413.0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Regular server railkit sales 0 480 358 712 1,271 2,369 4,245 4,609
AI server railkit sales 0 0 0 0 57 790 2,005 2,413
Other Revenue 2,041 1,519 967 1,212 1,106 1,168 1,168 1,168
Total Revenue 2,041 1,999 1,324 1,924 2,433 4,327 7,417 8,190
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (1,669) (1,636) (1,085) (1,422) (1,582) (2,362) (3,426) (3,363)
SG&A (208) (230) (191) (237) (301) (437) (732) (795)
Other op.expenses (31) (48) (38) (62) (66) (85) (148) (164)
Operating profit 133 85 9 203 484 1,442 3,111 3,869
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (22) (22) (17) (17) (12) (10) (9) (9)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (6) 110 12 54 60 52 13 12
Pre-tax profit 105 172 5 240 532 1,485 3,115 3,873
Tax (18) (42) 4 (48) (162) (297) (623) (774)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 87 131 8 192 370 1,187 2,492 3,098
Net profit (adjusted) 87 131 8 192 370 1,187 2,492 3,098
EPS (reported)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 17.045 35.779 44.477
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 17.045 35.779 44.477
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 17.045 35.779 44.477
DPS (TWD) 0.000 1.000 1.200 1.005 1.500 2.650 9.000 17.000
EBIT 133 85 9 203 484 1,442 3,111 3,869
EBITDA 267 218 125 322 628 1,695 3,390 4,186

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 105 172 5 240 532 1,485 3,115 3,873
Depreciation and amortisation 134 133 116 119 143 253 279 317
Tax paid (18) (42) 4 (48) (162) (297) (623) (774)
Change in working capital (238) 64 (10) (133) (251) 257 (346) (71)
Other operational CF items 57 43 (34) 117 78 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 40 370 80 295 341 1,697 2,425 3,345
Capex (68) (70) (29) (113) (122) (325) (482) (246)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (7) (4) (3) (21) (9) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (76) (74) (32) (134) (131) (325) (482) (246)
Change in debt 226 (383) (328) 111 84 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 45 171 413 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 (52) (70) (66) (99) (185) (627) (1,184)
Other financing CF items (23) (24) (21) (285) (47) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 248 (289) (7) (240) (62) (185) (627) (1,184)
Forex effect/others (0) 1 0 (3) (2) 0 0 0
Change in cash 212 9 42 (82) 145 1,188 1,316 1,915
Free cash flow (29) 300 52 181 219 1,372 1,943 3,099

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 11 May 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 363 384 414 327 496 1,684 3,000 4,914
Inventory 330 288 262 298 487 518 751 737
Accounts receivable 432 280 297 436 536 415 711 785
Other current assets 40 13 12 23 57 57 57 57
Total current assets 1,164 965 984 1,084 1,577 2,674 4,519 6,494
Fixed assets 2,530 2,492 2,430 2,454 2,464 2,536 2,739 2,668
Goodwill & intangibles 7 7 7 9 11 11 11 11
Other non-current assets 58 50 78 394 334 334 334 334
Total assets 3,759 3,513 3,499 3,941 4,386 5,555 7,604 9,507
Short-term debt 428 253 419 117 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 305 185 161 204 242 408 591 580
Other current liabilities 319 335 259 301 411 411 411 411
Total current liabilities 1,052 773 839 622 653 819 1,003 992
Long-term debt 1,388 1,166 696 1,027 552 552 552 552
Other non-current liabilities 11 4 39 61 37 37 37 37
Total liabilities 2,451 1,942 1,573 1,710 1,243 1,408 1,592 1,581
Share capital 525 585 656 660 697 697 697 697
Reserves/R.E./others 784 986 1,269 1,571 2,447 3,450 5,315 7,229
Shareholders' equity 1,309 1,571 1,925 2,231 3,144 4,146 6,012 7,926
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 3,759 3,513 3,499 3,941 4,386 5,555 7,604 9,507
EV 49,312 48,895 48,560 48,676 47,916 46,728 45,412 43,498
Net debt/(cash) 1,453 1,035 700 817 56 (1,131) (2,447) (4,362)
BVPS (TWD) 24.931 26.864 29.333 33.826 45.126 59.518 86.294 113.769

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 40.2 (2.1) (33.7) 45.3 26.4 77.8 71.4 10.4
EBITDA (YoY) 137.5 (18.6) (42.5) 157.3 94.8 170.0 100.0 23.5
Operating profit (YoY) 3,825.2 (36.2) (88.8) 2,042.9 138.1 197.7 115.7 24.4
Net profit (YoY) n.a. 50.6 (93.6) 2,208.0 92.5 220.9 109.9 24.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) n.a. 35.1 (94.3) 2,197.0 82.2 220.9 109.9 24.3
Gross-profit margin 18.2 18.1 18.0 26.1 35 45.4 53.8 58.9
EBITDA margin 13.1 10.9 9.5 16.8 25.8 39.2 45.7 51.1
Operating-profit margin 6.5 4.2 0.7 10.6 19.9 33.3 41.9 47.2
Net profit margin 4.3 6.5 0.6 10.0 15.2 27.4 33.6 37.8
ROAE 7.0 9.1 0.5 9.2 13.8 32.6 49.1 44.5
ROAA 2.5 3.6 0.2 5.2 8.9 23.9 37.9 36.2
ROCE 4.5 2.8 0.3 6.3 13.7 34.4 55.2 51.4
ROIC 4.1 2.4 0.4 5.7 10.8 37.1 75.7 86.9
Net debt to equity 111.0 65.9 36.4 36.6 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 17.0 24.2 0.0 20.0 30.4 20.0 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 61.4 65.1 79.5 69.5 72.9 40.1 27.7 33.3
Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.5 6.5
Net interest cover (x) 6.0 3.8 0.6 12.1 38.9 150.2 353.9 449.3
Net dividend payout n.a. 60.5 53.7 792.1 51.5 49.9 52.8 47.5
Free cash flow yield n.a. 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 2.9 4.1 6.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1984, Nan Juen International Co., LTD. is a Taiwan-based slide and rail kit manufacturer headquartered in Taoyuan City. The company began its operations as a producer of furniture and kitchen rail kits, leveraging its mechanical engineering expertise to gradually expand its product portfolio. Building on decades of slide mechanism design experience, Nan Juen extended its capabilities into the server rail kit market, which has since become the primary growth driver of the business.

Nan Juen's current product portfolio spans two core categories: server rail kits and others (including kitchen rail kits, office furniture rail kits, etc.). Within the server rail kit segment, the company produces both regular server rail kits and AI server rail kits, serving major CSPs globally. The company has been listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange under the ticker 6584 TT.

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 11 May 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 Nan Juen's board consists of 9 directors, including 4 independent directors. The total number of directors is slightly lower than that of other listed companies in our coverage. Nan Juen held 6 board meetings in 2024; the actual attendee rate was 98%. Most of the board members are Nan Juen's founder's family members, which we believe presents downside risks to independent governance. However, the independent directors have diversified backgrounds with expertise in accounting and management, a positive for the board's quality.
Capital management 2 Nan Juen declared a DPS of TWD1.5 in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 51%. The payout ratio was in line with the level of 50-60% during 2021-24. As a rail kit manufacturer, Nan Juen is set to deliver solid revenue growth and FCF over our forecast horizon amidst strong ASP increase in the server rail kit market.
Related party & transaction 1 The company did not report any related-party transactions in 2025. We see limited risks from related-party transactions.
S Product quality & safety 2 Nan Juen has implemented a Project Management Information System (PMIS) to streamline R&D workflows and enhance cross-departmental collaboration. The company is further planning to introduce a Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) system, integrating the full product lifecycle from concept through to manufacturing and after-sales service. Beyond operational efficiency, the PLM adoption reflects Nan Juen's commitment to responsible product stewardship, enabling better oversight of material consumption and environmental impact across its operations. The company continues to advance its green product programme. Based on 2024 shipments, its carbon emissions were 4,490 tonnes of CO2e (vs. 3,794 tonnes in 2023), but with a lower CO2e per TWD1m revenue of 2.33 tonnes (vs. 2.87 tonnes in 2024), underscoring progress in lowering the environmental footprint of its products.
S Product design & lifecycle management 2 Nan Juen is actively reducing its greenhouse gas emissions under a core commitment to net- zero carbon operations, aligned with Taiwan's 2050 net-zero emission policy. The company has adopted ISO 14064-1 GHG inventory standards and maintains ISO 14001:2015 environmental management system certification, providing a structured framework for monitoring and improving energy use and emissions across its operations. Practical measures include regular audits of high-energy-consuming equipment, employee sustainability training, and collaboration with supply chain partners on green procurement. Progress is tracked through internal audits and external verification, with findings reviewed periodically to refine the company's decarbonisation strategy.
Supply chain management

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 17 Apr 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 11 May 2026

Daiwa

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_大和_南駿6584_20260511_004.png 27KB 真資料圖 百分比堆疊長條圖,X軸2024/2025/2026E/2027E/2028E,圖例Regular server(深藍)/GPU AI server(灰)/ASIC AI server(藍)/Others(淺灰)