PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-06）
本報告共抽出 22 張圖（Figure 1–22，皆為 Counterpoint 資料之 sell-through 圖）；≥40KB 者（003、005、010、012、014、015、016、019）逐張 Read 如下，其餘 <40KB 未逐張列入。圖號對應依 trimmed 內引用順序（014＝Figure 15 歐洲、015＝Figure 14 印度）。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_003.png |
40KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 5：中國手機月 sell-through 長條（左軸百萬支，0–35）＋ % YoY 折線（右軸 -50% 至 50%），Jan-23 至 Aug-26；2026 年 4 月起 YoY 轉負約 -10% 至 -18% |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_005.png |
52KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 4：各地區月 sell-through YoY 折線（China／US／India／Europe／Other／Global，粗紅線為 Global），Jan-23 至 Aug-26；2026 年下半段多數地區在 -10% 上下，US 相對較淺 |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_010.png |
49KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 11：全球 sell-through 市占 100% 堆疊長條（Samsung、Apple、Xiaomi、Oppo、Vivo、Transsion、Huawei、Honor、Motorola、Other），Jan-23 至 Aug-26 |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_012.png |
44KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 12：中國 sell-through 市占 100% 堆疊長條（Samsung、Apple、Xiaomi、Oppo、Vivo、Huawei、Honor、Other），Jan-23 至 Aug-26 |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_014.png |
41KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 15（依引用順序）：歐洲 OEM sell-through 100% 堆疊長條（圖例 Samsung、Apple、Xiaomi、Oppo、Vivo、Huawei、Honor、Other），Samsung 約占 30% 上下 |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_015.png |
42KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 14（依引用順序）：印度 OEM sell-through 市占 100% 堆疊長條（圖例 Samsung、Apple、Xiaomi、Oppo*、Vivo、Huawei、Transsion、Other），Oppo 與 Vivo 占比大 |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_016.png |
49KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 16：RoW 市占 100% 堆疊長條（Samsung、Apple、Xiaomi、Oppo、Vivo、Transsion、Huawei、Honor、Motorola、Other），2026 年 Samsung 占比升至約 30% 以上 |
報告_UBS_全球智慧型手機8月銷售_20261005_019.png |
40KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 19：Samsung 手機月 sell-through 單位數（左軸百萬支）與 Flagship 單位數長條，及 Flagship 占比折線（右軸 0–50%），Jan-23 至 Aug-26；2026 年 8 月 flagship 占比回升至約 35% |
原始內容
Global I/O Smartphones
August '26 Sell-Through: No signs of recovery yet
Global smartphone unit sell-through -8.9% YoY August '26 YTD
Global smartphone unit sell-through (source: Counterpoint) for the month of August '26 came in at 85.9m units (-0.1% MoM, -12.3% YoY), marking the ninth consecutive month of YoY sell-through decline (was -12.2%/-10.9% YoY in July/June). By region, all regions except for the US (-3.4% YoY) saw double-digit YoY declines, with India seeing the most incremental downside at -17.7% YoY, followed by China (-17.3%), Europe (- 10.7%) and RoW (-10.1%). Following eight months of significant YoY weakness, August '26 YTD global smartphone unit sell-through now sits at -8.9% YoY with all regions well in negative comps (India/China/Europe/RoW/US: -12.3%/-10.5%/-8.7%/- 8.0%/-4.4% YoY).
Apple outperformance continues, Samsung beginning to rebound
Apple: YTD iPhone unit sell-through (149.3m units, +8.7% YoY) continues to highlight the material outperformance of Apple, which remains the only major OEM (>10% unit market share) in positive comps. With key iPhone suppliers optimistic on unit growth in '27 (link) on the back of (1) the change in launch schedule (3 models each in 1Q27 and 3Q27) and (2) the introduction of iPhone Duo (~10m units in first 12 months), we continue to forecast Apple strength to continue beyond '26 (UBSe sell-in: +8.5% YoY) and into '27 (+4.7% YoY). Samsung: August '26 sell-through came in at 20.3m units (+0.9% YoY), returning to positive comps for the first time since March '26, primarily on the back of the release of the new flagship foldable models (Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra, Fold8, Flip8) released on August 7th. New foldable sales in August came in at 2.8m units, only 0.3m units (or 7.5%) below July+August '25 sales for last year's lineup (Galaxy Z Fold7, Flip7, Flip7 FE; released on July 25th, 2025) despite two less weeks of sales. Whilst YTD sell-through still remains soft at -4.1% YoY, we believe resilient sales of the new flagship model as well as incremental share gains in the mid-range should help Samsung achieve YoY unit growth (UBSe '26E sell-in: +4.4% YoY). China Android: We continue to see memory-driven downside materialising with Transsion, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi YoY sell-through decline now at -23.1%/-19.0%/-18.2%/-18.1%.
Reiterating our sell-in forecasts of -10.0%/-3.0% YoY in '26E/'27E
We entered the year with a cautious view on the smartphone industry (link) primarily on the back of rapidly rising memory costs. We also flagged that these dynamics will be much more penalising for Chinese OEMs focusing on the low-end/mid-range segment. With the DRAM/NAND upcycles likely to extend until at least 2Q28E/4Q27E and unit sell-through now down 8.9% YoY globally (and on average 16.0% for Transsion, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi) eight months into the year, we expect to see double-digit YoY unit decline % and reiterate our '26E sell-in forecast of -10.0% YoY. Heading into '27, with memory likely to remain an incremental headwind, we expect to see muted demand for smartphones and see units declining further from a low base. We recently lowered our YoY unit sell-in forecasts for '27E to -3.0% from +2.0% (link).
Selective on smartphone plays; prefer memory/MLCC suppliers
Within the smartphone supply chain, we continue to prefer MediaTek and Samsung (both APAC Key Call Buy) as well as ASE, Hon Hai, JCET, Micron, Murata, SEMCO, SK Hynix and TSMC (all Buy). We remain cautious on LG Display, Maxscend, Xiaomi (all Neutral) and Largan (Sell). We have Neutral ratings on OEMs Apple and Transsion.
Equities
Global
Technology
Nicolas Gaudois
Analyst
nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com +65-6495 5148
David Vogt
Analyst
david.vogt@ubs.com +1-212-713 4296
Timothy Arcuri
Analyst
timothy.arcuri@ubs.com +1-415-352 5676
Randy Abrams
Analyst
randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338
Jimmy Yoon
Analyst
+65-6495 4617
Luke Yoo Analyst
luke.yoo@ubs.com +82-2-3702 8132
Sunny Lin
Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346
Shingo Hirata, CFA
Analyst
+81-3-5208 6224
Jimmy Yu
Analyst
S1460517080002 jimmy.yu@ubs.com +86-21-3866 8880
Joseph Koh
Analyst joseph.koh@ubs.com +603-2781 1182
Kenji Yasui
Analyst
kenji.yasui@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6211
KEY CHARTS
Smartphone units sell-through by markets
Figure 1: Global smartphone monthly unit sell-through
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 3: YoY smartphone unit sell-through growth by region (August 26 YTD)
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 5: China smartphone monthly unit sell-through
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 2: Smartphone monthly unit sell-through breakdown by markets (m units)
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 4: YoY smartphone unit sell-through growth by region (monthly)
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 6: US smartphone monthly unit sell-through
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
25
20
15
10
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Figure 7: India smartphone monthly unit sell-through
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 8: Europe smartphone monthly unit sell-through
Smartphone units sell-through by OEMs
Figure 9: YoY smartphone unit sell-in vs sell-through growth by OEM (1H26)
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 11: Global smartphone unit sell-through market share by OEMs
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 10: YoY smartphone unit sell-through growth by OEM (August 26 YTD)
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 12: China smartphone unit sell-through market share by OEMs
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
50%
20
40%
30%
15
20%
10%
10
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Figure 13: US smartphone unit sell-through market share by OEMs
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 15: Europe smartphone unit sell-through by OEMs
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 14: India smartphone unit sell-through market share by OEMs
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 16: RoW smartphone unit sell-through market share by OEMs
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Smartphone units sell-through by segment
Figure 17: Global smartphone unit sell-through by price band
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 18: OEM smartphone unit sell-through mix by price band (August 26)
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 19: Samsung smartphone unit sell-through and flagship as % of total
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 21: iPhone unit sell-through and new Pro models as % of total
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 20: Samsung Galaxy S series unit sell-through product mix
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Figure 22: iPhone series new models unit sell-through product mix
Source: Counterpoint, UBS
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
The handset industry, as part of consumer electronics, is cyclically sensitive to the economy and so upside and downside risks relate to macro drivers. Other downside risks include the rapid loss of market share due to poor product timing, design or distribution. The supply chain companies into the handset industry also operate in a highly cyclical market both from macro concerns and inventory cycles within the supply chain. These companies also operate in a highly competitive environment with product innovation and R&D investments critical to success. Valuation methods across the sector include multiple analysis.