PDF 原檔：報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20261105_original.pdf
原始內容
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3Q26 First Take: GM contracted due to continued increases in material costs; Neutral
8086.TWO 12m Price Target: NT$147.00 Price: NT$104.50 Upside: 40.7%
3Q26 results overview
AWSC's 3Q26 core business OP was NT$209mn, which was lower than both GSe/BBG consensus of NT$226mn/251mn, mainly due to the ongoing impact from rising material cost, leading to a 24.3% GM (lower than GSe/BBG consensus GM of 25.6%/29.3%), despite UTR in 3Q26 remaining stable at 65-70%.
For earnings, AWSC 3Q26 EPS was 3% higher than GSe but was 9% lower than BBG consensus on the contracted GM.
Valuation
We maintain our Neutral rating with a 12M TP of NT$147, based on 27x 4Q26-3Q27E P/E, which is line with the company's past 10-year forward P/E multiple, and in line with the inventory build-up period average P/E.
NEUTRAL
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$20.5bn / $624.7mn
Enterprise value: NT$16.7bn / $507.3mn
3m ADTV: NT$815.7mn / $25.5mn
Taiwan
Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) | 4,116.5 | 4,997.6 | 6,327.4 | 7,933.9 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 1,434.9 | 1,810.4 | 2,282.4 | 2,820.7 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.36 | 4.78 | 6.26 | 8.51 |
| P/E (X) | 28.6 | 21.8 | 16.7 | 12.3 |
| P/B (X) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) | (1.8) | (2.1) | (1.8) | (1.5) |
| CROCI (%) | 13.1 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 18.9 |
| FCF yield (%) | 5.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 1.42 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.08 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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AWSC (8086.TWO)
Rating since Dec 2, 2024
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 28.6 | 21.8 | 16.7 | 12.3 |
| P/B (X) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| FCF yield (%) | 5.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 11.3 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 11.3 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| CROCI (%) | 13.1 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 18.9 |
| ROE (%) | 8.2 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 18.0 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (31.6) | (45.1) | (44.9) | (44.4) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (31.6) | (45.1) | (44.9) | (44.4) |
| Interest cover (X) | 46.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Days inventory outst, sales | 76.9 | 58.4 | 43.2 | 42.2 |
| Receivable days | 55.7 | 43.7 | 32.2 | 32.4 |
| Days payable outstanding | 34.7 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 36.2 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 8.0 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 17.5 |
| Turnover (X) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Leverage (X) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Gross cash invested (ex cash) (NT$) | 11,148.4 | 10,940.9 | 11,943.9 | 13,096.3 |
| Average capital employed (NT$) | 5,751.4 | 5,166.2 | 4,827.5 | 5,138.9 |
| BVPS (NT$) | 41.89 | 43.57 | 45.76 | 48.74 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | (7.6) | 21.4 | 26.6 | 25.4 |
| EBITDA growth | 21.3 | 26.2 | 26.1 | 23.6 |
| EPS growth | 26.7 | 42.4 | 31.0 | 35.8 |
| DPS growth | 41.2 | 85.1 | 31.0 | 35.8 |
| EBIT margin | 17.9 | 21.8 | 24.2 | 25.7 |
| EBITDA margin | 34.9 | 36.2 | 36.1 | 35.6 |
| Net income margin | 16.0 | 18.8 | 19.5 | 21.1 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
Source: FactSet. Price as of 4 Nov 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 4,116.5 | 4,997.6 | 6,327.4 | 7,933.9 |
| Cost of goods sold | (3,026.6) | (3,525.9) | (4,281.2) | (5,274.4) |
| SG&A | (157.0) | (153.2) | (188.3) | (239.8) |
| R&D | (195.0) | (229.9) | (326.4) | (380.4) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| EBITDA | 1,434.9 | 1,810.4 | 2,282.4 | 2,820.7 |
| Depreciation & amortization | (697.0) | (721.7) | (751.0) | (781.5) |
| EBIT | 737.9 | 1,088.6 | 1,531.3 | 2,039.2 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 42.6 | 71.3 | 97.3 | 101.0 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax profit | 780.5 | 1,110.3 | 1,501.3 | 2,039.2 |
| Provision for taxes | (120.3) | (170.4) | (270.2) | (367.1) |
| Minority interest Preferred dividends | -- -- | -- -- | -- -- | -- -- |
| (pre-exceptionals) | ||||
| Net inc. | 660.1 | 939.9 | 1,231.1 | 1,672.1 |
| Post-tax exceptionals Net inc. (post-exceptionals) | -- 660.1 | -- 939.9 | -- 1,231.1 | -- 1,672.1 |
| EPS (basic, pre-except) (NT$) | 3.36 | 4.78 | 6.26 | 8.51 |
| EPS (diluted, pre-except) (NT$) | 3.36 | 4.78 | 6.26 | 8.51 |
| EPS (basic, post-except) (NT$) | 3.36 | 4.78 | 6.26 | 8.51 |
| EPS (diluted, post-except) (NT$) | 3.36 | 4.78 | 6.26 | 8.51 |
| DPS (NT$) | 1.68 | 3.11 | 4.07 | 5.53 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | ||||
| 50.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | ______ 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
| Cash & cash equivalents Accounts receivable | 3,450.3 | 4,708.6 | 4,887.5 624.1 | 5,101.9 782.5 |
| Inventory | 704.4 922.7 | 492.9 676.2 | 821.1 | 1,011.5 |
| Other current assets | 491.8 | 491.8 | 491.8 | 491.8 |
| Total current assets | 5,569.3 | 6,369.5 | 6,824.4 | 7,387.7 |
| Net PP&E | 4,792.9 | 4,651.2 | 4,900.1 | 5,318.6 |
| Net intangibles | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 (2.0) |
| Total investments Other long-term assets | 0.0 | 0.0 138.8 | (1.0) 138.8 | 138.8 |
| 138.8 10,525.5 | 12,867.6 | |||
| Total assets | 11,183.9 | 11,886.9 | ||
| Accounts payable | 337.7 | 386.4 | 469.2 | 578.0 |
| Short-term debt | 150.0 | 150.0 -- | 150.0 -- | 150.0 -- |
| Short-term lease liabilities Other current liabilities | -- 1,021.4 | 1,302.2 | 1,491.5 | 1,778.2 |
| Total current liabilities | 1,509.1 | 1,838.6 | 2,110.7 | 2,506.2 |
| Long-term debt | 698.3 | 698.3 | 698.3 -- | 698.3 -- |
| Long-term lease liabilities | -- | -- 85.2 | 85.2 | 85.2 |
| Other long-term liabilities Total long-term liabilities | 85.2 | 783.5 | 783.5 | 783.5 |
| Total liabilities Preferred shares | 783.5 2,292.6 -- | 2,622.1 -- | 2,894.2 -- | 3,289.7 -- |
| Total common equity | 8,232.8 -- | 8,561.8 -- | 8,992.7 -- | 9,577.9 -- |
| Minority interest | ||||
| Total liabilities & equity | 10,525.5 | 11,183.9 | 11,886.9 | 12,867.6 |
| Net debt, adjusted | (2,602.0) | (3,860.2) | (4,039.2) | (4,253.5) |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | __________ 12/25 | 12/26E 939.9 | 12/27E 1,231.1 | 12/28E 1,672.1 |
| Net income D&A add-back | 660.1 | 721.7 | 751.0 | |
| Minority interest add-back | 697.0 -- | -- | 781.5 -- | |
| Net (inc)/dec working | (153.3) | -- (193.2) | ||
| capital Other operating cash flow | 104.2 | 506.7 -- | -- | (240.1) -- |
| Cash flow from operations | 1,308.0 | 2,168.4 | 1,789.9 | 2,214.6 |
| Capital expenditures | (225.0) -- | (580.0) -- | (1,000.0) -- | (1,200.0) -- |
| Acquisitions Divestitures | (1.1) | |||
| (481.4) | -- -- | -- -- | -- -- | |
| Others Cash flow from | ||||
| investing | (707.5) | (580.0) | (1,000.0) | (1,200.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- (800.2) |
| Dividends paid (common & pref) | (330.1) 465.0 | (330.1) -- | (610.9) -- | -- |
| Inc/(dec) in debt Other financing cash flows | (111.1) 23.8 | 0.0 (330.1) | 0.0 (610.9) | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing Total cash flow | 624.2 | 1,258.2 | 178.9 | (800.2) 214.4 |
| Free cash flow | 1,082.9 | 1,588.4 | 789.9 | 1,014.6 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
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Exhibit 1: AWSC 3Q26 results snapshot
| AWSC (8086.TWO) | 3Q26 | QoQ | QoQ | YoY | YoY | Bloomberg consensus | Bloomberg consensus | ||
| P&L (NT$mn) | Actual | GS est. | Diff (%) | 2Q26 | QoQ | 3Q25 | YoY | Consensus | % |
| Revenue | 1,262 | 1,262 | %0 | 1,298 | -3% | 1,117 | 13% | 1,194 | 6% |
| Gross profits | 307 | 323 | -5% | 389 | -21% | 315 | -3% | 350 | -12% |
| Operating profits | 209 | 226 | -7% | 290 | -28% | 222 | %9- | 251 | -16% |
| Pre-tax income | 228 | 226 | 1% | 307 | -26% | 261 | -13% | 262 | -13% |
| Net profit | 191 | 185 | 3% | 278 | -31% | 218 | -12% | 221 | -14% |
| EPS, NT$ | 0.97 | 0.94 | 3% | 1.42 | -31% | 1.11 | -12% | 1.06 | |
| Gross margin (%) | 24.3% | 25.6% | -1.3ppt | 30.0% | -5.7ppt | 28.2% | -3.9ppt | 29.3% | -5.0ppt |
| EBIT margin (%) | 16.6% | 17.9% | -1.3ppt | 22.3% | -5.7ppt | 19.9% | -3.3ppt | 21.0% | -4.4ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 15.2% | 14.7% | 0.5ppt | 21.4% | -6.3ppt | 19.5% | -4.3ppt | 18.5% | -3.4ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Investment Thesis and TP & risks
AWSC is one of the largest GaAS foundries globally, with 10-15% market share in the GaAS foundry industry in 2025. We expect the company to enjoy solid share gain opportunity in the long term, considering its much lower than peers' production cost and better production efficiency. However, given the high inventory level in the supply chain, and the slower-than-expected Android smartphone PA demand in coming quarters, we expect relatively slow profit growth in the near term.
We are Neutral rated given the company's relatively slow profit growth in coming quarters. We think the stock is priced fairly, trading at its historical upcycle average P/E multiple, despite the long-term market share growth opportunity. We forecast AWSC's net income to grow at a 34% 2026-28E CAGR. The key up/downside risks are (1) easing/rising competition in the China PA foundry market, (2) faster/slower-than-expected progress on 5G/WiFi 7 upgrade trends, and (3) faster/slower-than expected progress with new businesses, including LEO satellite, drones and datacom.
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$147 is based on a target 27x 4Q26-3Q27 P/E, which is in line with the company's past 10-year forward P/E multiple and the inventory build-up period average P/E. We consider this multiple appropriate given the soft demand outlook and our positive view on the company's longer-term share gain opportunity.
The key up/downside risks are 1) easing/rising competition in the China PA foundry market, (2) faster/slower-than-expected progress on 5G/WiFi 7 upgrade trends, and (3) faster/slower-than expected progress with new businesses, including LEO satellite, drones and datacom.
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