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報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103

更新 2026-11-04

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-11-04)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103_001.png 13KB 文字卡 評等標示卡:Outperform (2)(unchanged),評等箭頭未變
報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103_002.png 25KB 真資料圖 股價走勢圖(Share price performance),無可讀數值,不嵌
報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103_003.png 44KB 真資料圖 Realtek monthly revenue run-rate:月營收長條(TWDm,橫軸 Jan-16 至 2026)與 YoY 成長折線,2025 後月營收約 12,000〜13,000 百萬元,YoY 約 +40%
報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103_004.png 27KB 真資料圖 Realtek 季度存貨天數(Inventory days):1Q10 至 3Q26,均值約 87 天,3Q26 升至約 134 天,僅次於 2022 年高峰約 190 天
報告_Daiwa_瑞昱2379_20261103_005.png 38KB 真資料圖 4-quarter forward PER band:股價線與 5x/10x/15x/20x/25x/30x,橫軸 Jan-11 至 2026,近期股價約 750〜800 落在 20x 上下

原始內容

RealtekSemiconductor (2379TT)

Target price: TWD798.00 (from TWD750.00)

Shareprice(3Nov):TWD756.00 | Up/downside:+5.6%

Back on track after rebalancing

  • Fine-tuning our forecasts on demand rebalancing after pre-stocking
  • Likely back on seasonal track after this year's hiccups
  • Reaffirming Outperform (2) call with a higher 12-month TP of TWD798

What's new: Following our results memo, we fine-tune our forecasts for Realtek. We believe its near-term demand-rebalancing hiccups have come to an end, thanks to its pricing power and its ability to pass on supply-chain cost inflation. Given our interpretation of management's tone that 4Q26 is likely to be sequentially flat, we expect Realtek's business to return to its seasonal track from 1Q27. We expect it to continue capitalising on its structure growth driver of multi-year/multi-G (gigabits per second) connectivity bandwidth upgrade cycle, with any AI penetration adding to upside. We reaffirm Outperform (2) call with a higher 12M TP of TWD798.

What's the impact: Forecast revisions. We fine-tune our 2026-28E EPS given that fundamentals are broadly intact heading into 2027. Recall management's commentary at its results call (29 October) of expecting 4Q26 to be a 'prudent and steady' quarter. We interpret this as likely a sequentially flat revenue, counter-seasonal after its 3Q26 miss on deeper demand rebalancing. Without quantifying its 2027 business outlook, management expects the year to be one of steady growth. We forecast Realtek's 2027 revenue to grow by 18% YoY, assuming its business returns to seasonal track after 2 years of demand rebalancing hiccups caused by customers' unusual restocking and pre-stocking activities.

Back on track after recent hiccups. After 2 years of anti-seasonal performance on customer pre-stocking amid uncertainty over Trump's reciprocal tariffs, followed by component price hikes and supply-chain uncertainty related to AI cannibalisation, we expect Realtek's business to return to its seasonal track from 1Q27. We believe it should continue to capitalise on its secular driver of multi-year/multi-G bandwidth upgrade cycle from both wireline and wireless connectivity, including 2.5G/5G/10G Ethernet, 10GPON, managed switches and WiFi 7/8. Its penetration into AI, from cloud AI companion chips to edge AI to physical AI, should add to growth upside, although any meaningful contribution may take time, evidenced by its new product offering/development such as SSD, Ethernet hub, optical cable, i3C security and SerDes controllers, to name a few. According to management, AI will contribute a high single-digit % revenue this year, ramping to over 30% contribution by 2030.

What we recommend: Following forecast revisions, we raise our 12M TP for Realtek to TWD798 (previous: TWD750), on the same 4-quarter forward PER target of 20x. We reaffirm our Outperform (2) rating with key downside risk of any component price hikes leading to worse-than-expected demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are broadly in line with consensus, ranging from -3% to +2%.

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sam Weng (886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (2.4) (2.3) (2.8)
Net profit change (2.2) (0.4) (2.0)
Core EPS (FD) change (2.2) (0.4) (2.0)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 445.00-900.00
Market cap (USDbn) 11.87
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 62.52
Shares outstanding (m) 513
Major shareholder JPMorgan Chase & Co (5.2%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 149,703 176,162 210,509
Operating profit (m) 16,278 20,957 25,315
Net profit (m) 16,379 20,338 24,149
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 31.393 38.981 46.287
EPS change (%) 11.9 24.2 18.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (0.3) 1.7 (3.2)
PER (x) 24.1 19.4 16.3
Dividend yield (%) 3.3 3.6 4.2
DPS 25.0 27.0 32.0
PBR (x) 7.0 6.1 5.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 12.5 10.3
ROE (%) 30.3 34.2 35.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Realtek: quarterly P&L forecasts

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 36,423 37,553 37,732 37,995 39,565 44,569 47,708 44,320 122,706 149,703 176,162 210,509
COGS -18,336 -19,902 -19,829 -19,861 -20,565 -23,001 -24,425 -22,665 -61,333 -77,927 -90,656 -107,719
Gross profit 18,087 17,651 17,903 18,135 19,000 21,567 23,283 21,655 61,374 71,776 85,506 102,791
Opex -13,755 -13,926 -13,758 -14,058 -14,520 -16,357 -17,318 -16,354 -47,014 -55,497 -64,549 -77,476
SG&A -3,784 -3,711 -3,676 -3,610 -3,759 -4,189 -4,055 -4,077 -11,841 -14,781 -16,081 -19,110
R&D -9,971 -10,215 -10,082 -10,449 -10,762 -12,167 -13,263 -12,277 -35,172 -40,717 -48,468 -58,366
Operating profit 4,332 3,725 4,145 4,076 4,480 5,211 5,965 5,301 14,360 16,278 20,957 25,315
Pre-tax profit 4,977 4,370 4,751 4,816 5,165 5,896 6,695 6,031 17,261 18,915 23,787 28,245
Income taxes -648 -565 -625 -698 -749 -855 -971 -874 -2,507 -2,536 -3,449 -4,095
Net profit 4,330 3,805 4,126 4,118 4,416 5,041 5,724 5,156 14,753 16,379 20,338 24,149
O/S (M, fully diluted) 522 522 522 522 522 522 522 522 526 522 522 522
FD EPS (TWD) 8.30 7.29 7.91 7.89 8.46 9.66 10.97 9.88 28.06 31.39 38.98 46.29
As a % of revenue
Gross profit 49.7% 47.0% 47.4% 47.7% 48.0% 48.4% 48.8% 48.9% 50.0% 47.9% 48.5% 48.8%
Opex -37.8% -37.1% -36.5% -37.0% -36.7% -36.7% -36.3% -36.9% -38.3% -37.1% -36.6% -36.8%
SG&A -10.4% -9.9% -9.7% -9.5% -9.5% -9.4% -8.5% -9.2% -9.7% -9.9% -9.1% -9.1%
R&D -27.4% -27.2% -26.7% -27.5% -27.2% -27.3% -27.8% -27.7% -28.7% -27.2% -27.5% -27.7%
Operating profit 11.9% 9.9% 11.0% 10.7% 11.3% 11.7% 12.5% 12.0% 11.7% 10.9% 11.9% 12.0%
Net profit 11.9% 10.1% 10.9% 10.8% 11.2% 11.3% 12.0% 11.6% 12.0% 10.9% 11.5% 11.5%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue 39% 3% 0% 1% 4% 13% 7% -7%
Gross profit 43% -2% 1% 1% 5% 14% 8% -7%
Operating profit 86% -14% 11% -2% 10% 16% 14% -11%
Net profit 63% -12% 8% 0% 7% 14% 14% -10%
FD EPS 64% -12% 8% 0% 7% 14% 14% -10%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue 4% 18% 28% 45% 9% 19% 26% 17% 8% 22% 18% 19%
Gross profit 0% 10% 22% 44% 5% 22% 30% 19% 7% 17% 19% 20%
Operating profit -12% -7% 33% 75% 3% 40% 44% 30% 6% 13% 29% 21%
Net profit -9% -3% 20% 55% 2% 32% 39% 25% -4% 11% 24% 19%
FD EPS -9% -4% 18% 56% 2% 32% 39% 25% -5% 12% 24% 19%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Realtek: revenue mix by application

Realtek: monthly revenue run-rate

Source: Daiwa estimates

Realtek: quarterly inventory trend

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts (for October-December 2026)

Realtek: 4-quarter forward PER band

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Networking & communication (%) 71 76 77 77 77 81 82 83
Computer & peripheral (%) 14 12 10 11 10 8 8 8
Multimedia & consumer (%) 15 13 13 13 13 11 10 9

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Networking & communication revenue 75,067 84,710 73,133 86,991 94,382 121,593 144,985 175,422
Computer & peripheral revenue 14,542 12,871 9,464 12,180 12,379 11,590 14,020 16,414
Other Revenue 15,896 14,209 12,582 14,223 15,945 16,520 17,156 18,674
Total Revenue 105,504 111,790 95,179 113,394 122,706 149,703 176,162 210,509
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (52,316) (57,155) (54,431) (56,232) (61,333) (77,927) (90,656) (107,719)
SG&A (7,910) (8,863) (7,633) (10,073) (11,841) (14,781) (16,081) (19,110)
Other op.expenses (27,953) (30,048) (26,460) (33,544) (35,172) (40,717) (48,468) (58,366)
Operating profit 17,325 15,724 6,655 13,545 14,360 16,278 20,957 25,315
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 220 733 2,335 2,504 2,548 2,624 2,830 2,930
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 30 465 555 336 353 13 0 0
Pre-tax profit 17,575 16,922 9,545 16,384 17,261 18,915 23,787 28,245
Tax (722) (718) (392) (1,050) (2,507) (2,536) (3,449) (4,095)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 16,853 16,204 9,153 15,335 14,753 16,379 20,338 24,149
Net profit (adjusted) 16,853 16,204 9,153 15,335 14,753 16,379 20,338 24,149
EPS (reported)(TWD) 33.000 31.623 17.847 29.900 28.619 31.936 39.655 47.087
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 33.000 31.623 17.847 29.900 28.619 31.936 39.655 47.087
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 32.384 30.483 17.587 29.742 28.064 31.393 38.981 46.287
DPS (TWD) 14.000 27.023 27.000 15.499 25.369 25.000 27.000 32.000
EBIT 17,325 15,724 6,655 13,545 14,360 16,278 20,957 25,315
EBITDA 19,626 18,528 9,680 16,889 18,079 20,890 26,396 31,778

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 17,575 16,922 9,545 16,384 17,261 18,915 23,787 28,245
Depreciation and amortisation 2,301 2,804 3,025 3,344 3,719 4,612 5,439 6,463
Tax paid (722) (718) (392) (1,050) (2,507) (2,536) (3,449) (4,095)
Change in working capital (9,811) (5,938) 9,803 1,875 8,115 2,350 (4,953) (3,984)
Other operational CF items 9,009 5,987 (4,084) 3,424 (3,573) 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 18,352 19,058 17,896 23,978 23,015 23,340 20,824 26,628
Capex (2,510) (2,451) (2,167) (2,347) (2,089) (2,994) (3,523) (4,210)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (45) (370) 0 (2,240) 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (11,478) 2,456 3,251 (5,121) (14,291) (2,246) (2,642) (3,158)
Cash flow from investing (14,033) (366) 1,084 (9,707) (16,380) (5,240) (6,166) (7,368)
Change in debt 2,903 1,107 (8,977) 250 5,590 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (7,150) (13,847) (13,847) (7,949) (13,078) (12,822) (13,847) (16,412)
Other financing CF items (90) (98) (115) (2,367) (128) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (4,337) (12,838) (22,939) (10,066) (7,616) (12,822) (13,847) (16,412)
Forex effect/others (81) 703 472 383 (766) 0 0 0
Change in cash (99) 6,557 (3,486) 4,588 (1,747) 5,279 811 2,849
Free cash flow 15,842 16,607 15,730 21,631 20,926 20,346 17,301 22,418

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 52,891 56,913 43,590 55,099 61,376 66,655 67,466 70,315
Inventory 16,549 25,553 11,757 13,506 19,561 14,599 20,173 21,144
Accounts receivable 15,989 12,013 12,757 12,305 15,011 21,902 21,535 30,371
Other current assets 817 1,013 1,183 3,747 1,409 1,409 1,409 1,409
Total current assets 86,245 95,492 69,288 84,658 97,357 104,565 110,584 123,239
Fixed assets 6,303 5,210 7,068 8,441 10,100 11,572 13,300 15,378
Goodwill & intangibles 2,232 2,413 2,625 2,659 3,475 2,630 2,553 2,479
Other non-current assets 6,452 10,586 14,836 18,138 18,972 18,972 18,972 18,972
Total assets 101,232 113,701 93,815 113,897 129,903 137,739 145,409 160,068
Short-term debt 13,342 13,738 4,250 4,500 10,090 10,090 10,090 10,090
Accounts payable 11,443 10,496 7,273 9,584 11,738 16,017 16,272 22,094
Other current liabilities 34,036 38,310 34,723 43,877 52,928 52,928 52,928 52,928
Total current liabilities 58,821 62,545 46,246 57,961 74,756 79,035 79,289 85,112
Long-term debt 1,003 1,713 2,227 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 2,456 2,680 3,104 2,978 2,935 2,935 2,935 2,935
Total liabilities 62,280 66,938 51,577 60,939 77,691 81,970 82,225 88,047
Share capital 5,107 5,129 5,129 5,129 5,155 5,155 5,155 5,155
Reserves/R.E./others 33,836 41,625 37,100 47,819 47,047 50,604 58,019 66,856
Shareholders' equity 38,943 46,753 42,228 52,948 52,202 55,759 63,174 72,011
Minority interests 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Total equity & liabilities 101,232 113,701 93,815 113,897 129,903 137,739 145,409 160,068
EV 349,188 346,272 350,621 337,135 336,449 331,169 330,358 327,509
Net debt/(cash) (38,546) (41,462) (37,113) (50,599) (51,286) (56,565) (57,376) (60,225)
BVPS (TWD) 76.256 91.242 82.339 103.240 101.263 108.722 123.180 140.409

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 35.7 6.0 (14.9) 19.1 8.2 22.0 17.7 19.5
EBITDA (YoY) 84.7 (5.6) (47.8) 74.5 7.0 15.5 26.4 20.4
Operating profit (YoY) 100.5 (9.2) (57.7) 103.5 6.0 13.4 28.7 20.8
Net profit (YoY) 91.7 (3.8) (43.5) 67.5 (3.8) 11.0 24.2 18.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 91.3 (5.9) (42.3) 69.1 (5.6) 11.9 24.2 18.7
Gross-profit margin 50.4 48.9 42.8 50.4 50.0 47.9 48.5 48.8
EBITDA margin 18.6 16.6 10.2 14.9 14.7 14.0 15.0 15.1
Operating-profit margin 16.4 14.1 7.0 11.9 11.7 10.9 11.9 12.0
Net profit margin 16.0 14.5 9.6 13.5 12.0 10.9 11.5 11.5
ROAE 49.3 37.8 20.6 32.2 28.1 30.3 34.2 35.7
ROAA 18.8 15.1 8.8 14.8 12.1 12.2 14.4 15.8
ROCE 36.8 27.2 12.0 25.5 24.0 25.4 30.1 32.6
ROIC n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 4.1 4.2 4.1 6.4 14.5 13.4 14.5 14.5
Accounts receivable (days) 51.3 45.7 47.5 40.3 40.6 45.0 45.0 45.0
Current ratio (x) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 81.3 82.1 85.5 86.9 87.7 86.9 84.5 80.7
Free cash flow yield 4.1 4.3 4.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.5 5.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Realtek focuses on research, design, development and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs) for applications across networking & communication (NC), computer & peripheral (CP) and multimedia & consumer (MM). The majority of its revenue comes from NC products, including WiFi, Bluetooth, Ethernet and switch controllers. It also provides diversified CP products such as audio codec, IP cam, and solid-state drive (SSD) controllers as well as MM products like TV SoC and monitor controllers.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 Realtek's Board of Directors consists of nine members whose expertise spans industry, academia, finance, accounting, and management, providing the company with a broad and diverse range of professional perspectives. Three of these directors are independent, representing 33 percent of the board and exceeding the regulatory minimum requirement of 20 percent for independent directors. This higher proportion of independent directors enhances oversight, helps safeguard shareholder interests, and supports more objective decision-making. However, an important governance risk remains in the area of board diversity. The board currently includes only one female director out of nine members, which represents 11 percent of the total. This limited female representation may constrain the breadth of viewpoints and experiences reflected in board discussions and could be perceived as misaligned with evolving stakeholder expectations and best practices on gender diversity in corporate governance.
Capital management 1 In the past 8 years, Realtek's dividend payout ratios were above 80%. As a fabless company, it does not need high capital expenditure for manufacturing sites. Realtek's business has shown stable earnings growth over its 30-year history. Thus, we see its dividend policy with a high payout ratio as appropriate.
Related party & transaction 2 Realtek's related-party transactions are primarily with G.M.I. Technology Inc. and Greatek Electronics Inc. Realtek pays certain processing costs to related parties. These payments are made under standard commercial terms and conditions. Overall, we do not observe any significant impact on Realtek's business arising from these related-party transactions.
S Supplychain management 2 Realtek has formulated a set of supplier management regulations in accordance with Realtek's Supplier Sustainability Management Policy. It requires suppliers to obtain ISO9001 quality management system certification to ensure that all of its suppliers possess a high level of environment awareness.
E Water&wastewater management 1 As a fabless company without manufacturing plants, Realtek does not produce much wastewater compared to manufacturing companies, and thus has a relatively limited impact on the environment. Realtek has implemented a water conservation plan to increase water efficiency, such as the reuse of rainwater, re-circulating water in its cooling tower and installing water- saving devices. Its water saving rate (=reduced water consumption/total water withdrawn) increased gradually.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 The company reports to the Executive Yuan's Environmental Protection Administration waste and reporting management system every month on the quantity of waste and its method of disposal. In 2024, it produced 26.10 tonnes of industrial waste, maintaining over a 90% recycling rate for hazardous industrial waste.
E GHGemissions 1 Realtek has independently conducted GHG emission inventory and management at its Hsinchu Headquarters since 2019. In 2022, Realtek implemented a comprehensive ISO 14064-1:2018 GHG inventory and passed third-party verification. As of 2024, the company has completed GHG emission inventory and third-party verification for all sites within the Realtek Group.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company