報告_Citi_美利達9914_20260814

PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_美利達9914_20260814_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-17）

原始內容

(RIC: 9914.1W, BB: 9914 11)

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Prepared for Kevin Lu

14 Aug 2026 11:29:00 ET │ 13 pages

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Merida (9914.TW)

China and EU Improve; SBC Visibility Remains Low

CITI'S TAKE

We maintain our Neutral rating as we believe Merida's better core biz recovery helped by strong China and EU subsidiaries is balanced by low visibility of SBC and limited near-term catalysts. Resilient China demand, EU inventory normalization and a better mix should support margins, but soft OEM and e-bike shipments and strategic reductions in outgoing model supply will likely constrain near-term sales growth. We raise our 20262028E earnings forecasts by 3-5% and lift our TP to NT$93, based on 15.5x NTM P/E. A more constructive view would require clearer evidence of sustainable SBC profitability, stronger OEM orders or better sell-through from upcoming product launches.

Outlook: TW plant shipment down single digit y/y while China turns positive y/y for FY26 -China shipments are guided to increase to 700K units from 630K in 2025, while TW pedal bike shipments should increase to 160K units from 140K. By contrast, TW e-bikes shipments are expected to drop to 120K in 2026 from 170K in 2025, reflecting a higher base and continued adjustment in e-bike biz. All in, Merida expects FY26 group sales to decrease by low teens y/y.

SBC: underlying profitability improved, yet tax a major drag -SBC 1H26 sales decreased by a single digit y/y, partly because it strategically reduced supply of outgoing models ahead of product launches. Nevertheless, pre-tax profit rose 41% y/y and pre-tax margin expanded to 6% from 3%, suggesting meaningful improvement in underlying operations. All regions except US were profitable; however, US losses combined with a larger accrual tax resulted in a higher effective tax rate, leading to a net loss. Mgmt. expects SBC's bottom-line to generate a profit comparable with 2025.

China: better than expected growth led by affordable products -China delivered 1H26 unit growth of 13% y/y and sales growth of 6% y/y, driven by resilient demand for entry level bikes. The lower sales growth relative to unit growth reflects a shift toward more affordable models, with 2Q26 ASP at RMB 1,550. Mgmt. notes the underlying demand is returning to a healthier and more rational pattern. China 1H26 GPM reached c.15% vs. 11% for TW plant. (continued)

Earnings Summary

Source: Powered by dataCentral

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

n Neutral

Price (14 Aug 26 13:30)

NT$83.30

Target price

NT$93.00↑

from NT$72.00

Expected share price return

11.6%

Expected dividend yield

2.6%

Expected total return

14.3%

Market Cap

NT$24,905M US$775M

Angela Hsu AC

+886-2-8726-9083 angela.hc.hsu@citi.com

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Prepared for Kevin Lu

EU: recovering as inventories normalized -EU subsidiaries' 1H26 sales were up 14% y/y and profit grew >45% y/y, supported by normalized channel inventories and new product launches. Mgmt. is seeing a recovery across both conventional road bikes and e-bikes, although the broader recovery remains gradual. EU subsidiaries generated an avg GPM of 24-25% in 1H26.

Implications -We raise our 2026-28E earnings forecasts by 3-5%, mainly to incorporate stronger gross margin in Merida's core business, supported by a better product mix, fewer discounted products, and improving profitability at its EU subsidiaries. We also factor in better China OBM sales and a gradual EU market recovery. We trim our non-op income for 2026-2028E to factor in SBC miss in 2Q26.

We lift our TP to NT$93 based on 15.5x 2H26-1H27E EPS. Our target multiple is 40% below its historical average, reflecting limited visibility into SBC's profitability, still soft OEM and e-bike shipment and the group's sales decline expected in 2026E.

We maintain our Neutral rating as we see limited near-term catalysts following the strong 2Q margin performance. A more constructive view would require clearer evidence of sustainable SBC net profitability, stronger OEM orders or better sellthrough from upcoming product launches.

Figure 1. Merida: Earnings Estimates Revision

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates

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Aug 25

• Target P/E of 19x

• 42% Upside

NT$ 93.00

A 12% Upside

Bull/Bear: Merida (9914.TW)

BASE Assumptions

Sales decrease of 8-10% yoy in 2026E

• GPM of 16-17% in 2026E

• Target P/E of 15.5x

BEAR Assumptions

• 45 ' Sales decrease of 10-15% yoy in 2026E

• GPM of 15-16% in 2026E

• Target P/E of 13x

Prepared for Kevin Lu

NT$ 70.00

• 16% Downside

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Merida

Company description

Merida is the second-largest bike manufacturer in Taiwan. Founded in 1972, Merida was initially involved in OEM manufacturing before it started marketing bikes under its own Merida brand in 1986. Merida has expanded its footprint globally through its Merida brand and three OEM brands: Specialized (in which Merida has a 35% stake), Centurion (51% stake), and Miyata (45%). Merida's own brand contributes around 30-40% of total revenues. Merida has established a proprietary network of stores throughout China, with 16 wholly owned subsidiaries and close to 2,000 retailers that sell only Merida-branded bikes.

Investment strategy

We rate Merida shares as Neutral. Although bike inventories have normalised in the major markets after aggressive clearance over the past 2 years, slowerthan-expected bike demand recovery continues to weigh on Merida's topline momentum. The EU market appears to be where we should see better growth for 2026E, while China market also turns better than expected from 2Q26; yet with low visibility of SBC profit trend and limited positive catalysts in sight, we expect the share price to be range bound.

Valuation

Our target price for Merida shares of NT$93 is based on a 2H26-1H27E P/E of 15.5x, a 30% discount to its historical average of 22x during pre-Covid years (2014-2019), in view of soft order momentum as a result of slow recovery in bike demand, a volatile margin trend, and low visibility of SBC.

Risks

Downside risks that could mean the Merida shares trade below our target price include: 1) e-bike adoption slower than expected; 2) weaker restocking demand; 3) lukewarm sell-through at SBC; and 4) a weaker macro.

Upside risks that could mean the Merida shares trade above our target price include: 1) e-bike adoption faster than expected; 2) stronger restocking demand; 3) stronger sell-through at SBC; and 4) a strong macro.

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Appendix A-1