PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_研華2395_20261029_original.pdf
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[讀者資訊已遮蔽] citi
29 Oct 2026 10:28:22 ET │ 11 pages
Advantech (2395.TW)
3Q26 First Take: Strong Earnings Beat but Cost Pressures Persist
CITI'S TAKE
Advantech reported 3Q26 net profits of NT$6.2bn (+38% q/q and +125% y/y), beating our/BBG est by 35%/28%, driven by stronger sales, op leverage and higher non-op income. While GPM declined further q/q on component inflation, robust sales growth supported OPM expansion. A BB ratio of 1.6x also points to healthy near-term momentum. We maintain Neutral as rich valuation already reflects much of the improving demand outlook, while material/component price inflation and gradual cost pas through remain margin risks. Advantech will host its results call on Nov 4th. We will provide further color and update our forecasts accordingly.
3Q recap - strong op leverage offset GPM pressure - 3Q26 net profits (+125% y/y) topped our/BBG estimates 35%/28% respectively owing mostly to stronger sales and larger degree of op leverage. Sales reached a record NT$32.4bn (+24% q/q and +83% y/y), 23%/12% above Citi/BBG estimate, which can be attributable to strong demand in edge AI, semi equipment and smart healthcare applications. GPM fell to 36.7% (-1ppt q/q and -2.2ppt y/y) below Citi/BBG estimates of 38.0%/37.6%, reflecting higher component prices. Nevertheless, OPM expanded to 20.9%, underpinned by strong op leverage on higher sales scale. OP profits +151% y/y beat Citi/BBG forecast 33%/21%, the key driver to the earnings beat.
Implications - Strong order intake is encouraging with 3Q BB ratio reaching 1.6x and NA particularly robust at 2.1x. However, we believe the stock's rich valuation limits further re-rating potential, particularly as a higher comparison base could moderate growth in 2027E. Continued GPM compression also reinforces our concerns over material/component inflation and the timing of price increases to offset higher costs. Advantech will host 3Q26 results call on Nov 4th. We will revisit our numbers and share key takeaways following management's updates.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31 Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | Diluted EPS (NT$) | EPS growth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 9,005 | 10.46 | -19.2 | 64.3 | 11.3 | 18.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025A | 10,593 | 12.26 | 17.2 | 54.9 | 10.6 | 19.9 | 1.3 |
| 2026E | 16,374 | 18.87 | 54.0 | 35.7 | 10.3 | 29.4 | 2.0 |
| 2027E | 17,626 | 20.30 | 7.6 | 33.2 | 9.3 | 29.5 | 2.2 |
| 2028E | 19,515 | 22.48 | 10.7 | 29.9 | 8.3 | 29.2 | na |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
| Neutral | |
|---|---|
| Price (29 Oct 26 13:30) | NT$673.00 |
| Target price | NT$670.00 |
| Expected share price return | -0.4% |
| Expected dividend yield | 2.0% |
| Expected total return | 1.6% |
| Market Cap | NT$584,868M |
| US$18,058M |
Angela Hsu AC
+886-2-8726-9083
angela.hc.hsu@citi.com [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Figure 1. Advantech: 3Q26 Results Comp
| NT$mn | 3Q26 Actual | 2Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 3Q25 Actual | Y/Y | 3Q26 Citi | Diff. | 3Q26 BBG | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 32,440 | 26,126 | 24% | 17,774 | 83% | 26,339 | 23% | 28,945 | 12% |
| COGS | 20,544 | 16,281 | 10,866 | 16,319 | |||||
| Gross profit | 11,896 | 9,845 | 21% | 6,908 | 72% | 10,020 | 19% | 10,877 | %6 |
| Opex | 5,101 | 4,718 | 4,199 | 4,899 | |||||
| Op.profit | 6,795 | 5,127 | 33% | 2,708 | 151% | 5,122 | 33% | 5,628 | 21% |
| Total non-op income | 1,106 | 463 | 568 | 341 | |||||
| Pre-taxprofit | 7,901 | 5,590 | 41% | 3,276 | 141% | 5,463 | 45% | 5,927 | 33% |
| Netincome | 6,218 | 4,518 | 38% | 2,766 | 125% | 4,593 | 35% | 4,842 | 28% |
| EPS (NT$) | 7.15 | 5.20 | 37% | 3.20 | 123% | 5.29 | 35% | 5.64 | 27% |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||
| GPM | 36.7 | 37.7 | (1.0) | 38.9 | (2.2) | 38.0 | (1.4)| | 37.6 | (0.9) |
| OPM | 20.9 | 19.6 | 1.3 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 19.4 | 1.5 | 19.4 | 1.5 |
| OPEX Ratio | 15.7 | 18.1 | (2.3) | 23.6 | (62) | 18.6 | -2.9 | 0.0 | 15.7 |
| Net Margin | 19.2 | 17.3 | 1.9 | 15.6 | 3.6 | 17.4 | 1.7 | 16.7 | 2.4 |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Bloomberg, Company Reports, Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Advantech
Valuation
Our target price of NT$670 is based on 35x 2H26-1H27E EPS, at the high-cycle of the stock's valuation range between 20-35x since 2020, reflecting solid BB ratio, improving margin profile and ROE.
Risks
Key upside risks that could cause Advantech's shares to trade above our target price include: 1) better-than-expected marcoeconomic outlook; and 2) better-than-expected demand and margin profile. Key downside risks would include: 1) slower-than-expected demand recovery, especially the China market; and 2) further deterioration of demand in US and EU markets.
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Appendix A-1
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-30）
- 報告_Citi_研華2395_20261029_001.png（240.1KB）：文字卡（評等與目標價歷史）。親眼所見：Advantech (2395.TW) 評等／目標價歷史表與股價折線（2024–2026），目標價 365→390.5…→405（2026-05-06）→670（2026-08-06），評等皆為 2；下半為 Short-Term View／Catalyst Watch 紀錄。無公司資料可嵌 lib。