PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_瑞昱2379_20261029_original.pdf
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14KB | 文字卡 | 封面頁右側小型股價走勢圖縮圖（Price Performance），僅示股價線，無可讀資料點，不嵌用 |
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158KB | 真資料圖 | 左 Figure 3 Realtek Forward P/E band（2012-2026，股價線與 13.3x／15.0x／16.7x／18.5x／20.2x 五條倍數線），右 Figure 4 Forward P/B band & ROE（3.4x／4.1x／4.7x／5.4x／6.0x 倍數線與 ROE 紅線） |
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102KB | 真資料圖 | Bull/Base/Bear 情境圖：Bull NT$1,000（+26%）、Base NT$900（+13%）、Bear NT$600（-24%），股價線 Oct 25 至 29 Oct 26 收盤 NT$794，右側延伸至 Oct 27 的三條情境虛線 |
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140KB | 真資料圖 | 上：Ratings and Target Price History（2024-2026），標示 2025-11-23 TP 650、2026-04-30 TP 630 兩個變動點；下：Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch 走勢，2025-11-23 Add STV、2026-02-20 Remove STV |
原始內容
Prepared for [訂閱者已遮蔽] citi
29 Oct 2026 11:24:35 ET │ 14 pages
Realtek (2379.TW)
Positive outlook on resilient specs migration demand
CITI'S TAKE
Realtek reported a solid 3Q26 result with net profit at NT$4,126m, which grew 8% QoQ and 20% YoY. It was better than our estimates and largely in line with Street's (Bloomberg) as GM/OPM has shown recovery to reach 47.4%/11.0% (vs. 47.0%/9.9% in 2Q26). The management expects 2Q26 to mark the margins trough; with its price hike initiative from 3Q, we expect more meaningful GM improvement in 4Q and GM should hold up well at c50% level for 2027. For revenues, the company is guiding for 0-5% QoQ growth in 4Q driven by strength in networking and automotive with upside potential if it can secure more upstream capacity. And early glance into next year suggest at least double digit sales growth supported by ongoing infrastructure upgrades and high-bandwidth. Given improving outlook and emerging AI angle, we reiterate our Buy rating and raise TP to NT$900.
Steady specs upgrade trend to drive margin and sales outlook- We are seeing continued specs upgrade for multi-gig, 10G PON and rising penetration of Wi-Fi 7, alongside continued ramping of managed switches to lead to Realtek's outperformance in the industry. Specifically managed switches continue to gain share across telecom/enterprise clients. Wi-Fi 7 penetration in PCs and routers would reach 30% in 2026 and would further rise to c40% in 2027 with new customer platform launches. Company also targets Wi-Fi 8 products to ramp by 2H27.
increasing AI exposure - Realtek has defined its AI exposure to include HPC (server application) and edge AI (autonomous vehicles, humanoid robotics and personal supercomputer application). Its AI sales now contribute HSD% of overall sales and the management is expecting it to grow to >30% contribution in the mid-to longterm. We believe the company is targeting this market through its offering in Ethernet switch, SmartNICs, PCIe Retimers/Redrivers, optical controllers, etc. to further expand its content value in the AI supply chain. Additionally, we also acknowledge its AI ASIC engagements are in early customer discussions leveraging its high-speed connectivity and interface IP.
Maintain Buy and raise TP to NT$900 - we raise our 2027/28E EPS by 15%/15% as we see more solid growth outlook and share gains potential in its networking segment. As we see its specs upgrade cycle to continue support its sales and margin outlook, we are raise our target PER to 20x (from17x), which is slightly higher than its 3-year PER average, and move forward our valuation base year to 2027. We reiterate Buy and raise TP to NT$900 (20x 2027 EPS).
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31 Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | Diluted EPS (NT$) | EPS growth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 15,291 | 29.82 | 67.1 | 26.6 | 7.7 | 32.1 | 2.0 |
| 2025A | 14,753 | 28.77 | -3.5 | 27.6 | 7.8 | 28.1 | 3.1 |
| 2026E | 16,954 | 33.06 | 14.9 | 24.0 | 6.9 | 30.4 | 3.1 |
| 2027E | 22,383 | 43.64 | 32.0 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 31.8 | 3.5 |
| 2028E | 27,295 | 53.22 | 21.9 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 28.6 | 4.7 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (29 Oct 26 13:30)
NT$794.00
Target price NT$900.00↑
from NT$630.00
Expected share price return
13.4%
Expected dividend yield
3.1%
Expected total return
16.5%
Market Cap NT$409,317M
US$12,638M
Price Performance
(RIC: 2379.TW, BB: 2379 TT)
Nicholas Lai AC
+886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com Prepared for [訂閱者已遮蔽] Prepared for [訂閱者已遮蔽]
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | 2379.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | Price: NT$794.00; TP: NT$900.00; Market Cap: NT$409,317m; Recomm: Buy - 2024 | Price: NT$794.00; TP: NT$900.00; Market Cap: NT$409,317m; Recomm: Buy - 2025 | Price: NT$794.00; TP: NT$900.00; Market Cap: NT$409,317m; Recomm: Buy - 2026E | Price: NT$794.00; TP: NT$900.00; Market Cap: NT$409,317m; Recomm: Buy - 2027E | Price: NT$794.00; TP: NT$900.00; Market Cap: NT$409,317m; Recomm: Buy - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue | 113,394 | 122,706 | 149,725 | 170,420 | 194,606 | PE (x) | 26.6 | 27.6 | 24.0 | 18.2 | 14.9 |
| Cost of sales | -56,232 | -61,333 | -77,613 | -85,836 | -96,586 | PB (x) | 7.7 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Gross profit | 57,162 | 61,374 | 72,112 | 84,584 | 98,019 | EV/EBITDA (x) | 23.2 | 24.5 | 20.9 | 15.2 | 11.7 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 50.4 | 50.0 | 48.2 | 49.6 | 50.4 | FCF yield (%) | 5.3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| EBITDA (Adj) | 16,846 | 15,896 | 18,547 | 24,377 | 29,886 | Dividend yield (%) | 2.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) | 14.9 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 15.4 | Payout ratio (%) | 52 | 85 | 74 | 64 | 70 |
| Depreciation | -3,344 | -1,536 | -1,734 | -1,756 | -1,632 | ROE (%) | 32.1 | 28.1 | 30.4 | 31.8 | 28.6 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 13,502 | 14,360 | 16,813 | 22,620 | 28,254 | EBITDA | 16,846 | 15,896 | 18,547 | 24,377 | 29,886 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 11.9 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 14.5 | Working capital | 5,299 | -3,209 | 2,325 | 124 | -2,264 |
| Net interest | 2,504 | 2,548 | 2,781 | 2,860 | 2,860 | Other | 1,790 | 393 | 141 | -237 | -958 |
| Associates | 79 | 127 | 84 | -28 | -28 | Operating cashflow | 23,934 | 13,080 | 21,013 | 24,264 | 26,664 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 257 | 226 | -199 | 216 | 216 | Capex | -2,347 | -2,089 | -3,108 | -3,263 | -3,426 |
| Pre-tax profit | 16,341 | 17,261 | 19,480 | 25,669 | 31,302 | Net acq/disposals | -3,907 | -1,676 | 1,019 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -1,050 | -2,507 | -2,526 | -3,286 | -4,007 | Other | -3,453 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Investing cashflow | -9,707 | -3,766 | -2,089 | -3,263 | -3,426 |
| Reported net profit | 15,291 | 14,753 | 16,954 | 22,383 | 27,295 | Dividends paid | -7,949 | -13,078 | -12,618 | -14,500 | -19,143 |
| Net Margin (%) | 13.5 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 14.0 | Financing cashflow | -10,066 | -9,952 | -16,376 | 0 | 0 |
| Core NPAT | 15,291 | 14,753 | 16,954 | 22,383 | 27,295 | Net change in cash | 4,544 | -637 | 2,548 | 21,001 | 23,237 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 21,587 | 10,991 | 17,905 | 21,001 | 23,237 |
| Reported EPS ($) | 29.82 | 28.77 | 33.06 | 43.64 | 53.22 | ||||||
| Core EPS ($) | 29.82 | 28.77 | 33.06 | 43.64 | 53.22 | ||||||
| DPS ($) | 15.50 | 24.48 | 24.48 | 28.13 | 37.13 | ||||||
| CFPS ($) | 46.67 | 25.50 | 40.97 | 47.31 | 51.99 | ||||||
| FCFPS | 42.09 | ||||||||||
| ($) | 21.43 | 34.91 | 40.95 | 45.31 | |||||||
| BVPS ($) Wtd avg ord shares (m) | 103.24 513 | 101.79 513 | 115.53 513 | 159.17 513 | 212.40 513 | ||||||
| Wtd avg diluted shares (m) | 513 | 513 | 513 | 513 | 513 | ||||||
| Growth rates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 19.1 | 8.2 | 22.0 | 13.8 | 14.2 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 102.9 | 6.4 | 17.1 | 34.5 | 24.9 | ||||||
| Core NPAT (%) | 67.1 | -3.5 | 14.9 | 32.0 | 21.9 | ||||||
| Core EPS (%) | 67.1 | -3.5 | 14.9 | 32.0 | 21.9 | ||||||
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash & cash equiv. | 14,812 | 13,066 | 14,543 | 35,512 | 58,717 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 14,946 | 15,011 | 22,922 | 22,648 | 24,179 | ||||||
| Inventory | 13,506 | 19,561 | 23,654 | 23,339 | 24,469 | ||||||
| Net fixed & other tangibles | 14,051 | 14,896 | 14,028 | 15,535 | 17,329 | ||||||
| Goodwill & intangibles | 2,659 | 3,475 | 3,967 | 3,967 | 3,967 | ||||||
| Financial & other assets | 53,922 | 63,894 | 74,494 | 73,790 | 77,726 | ||||||
| Total assets | 113,897 | 129,903 | 153,608 | 174,791 | 206,387 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 9,584 | 11,738 | 16,735 | 16,508 | 17,321 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 4,500 | 10,090 | 3,273 | 3,273 | 3,273 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Provisions & other liab | 46,856 | 55,863 | 74,339 | 73,365 | 76,852 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 60,939 | 77,691 | 94,347 | 93,147 | 97,447 | ||||||
| Shareholders' equity | 52,948 | 52,202 | 59,252 | 81,635 | 108,930 | ||||||
| Minority interests | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||||||
| Total equity | 52,957 | 52,212 -2,976 | 59,261 | 81,644 | 108,940 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -10,312 | -11,269 | -32,238 | -55,443 | |||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -19.5 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this | table, please click here. | -5.7 | -19.0 | -39.5 | -50.9 |
Figure 1. Realtek - 3Q26 Results Comparison
| (NT$mn) | 3Q26 Actual | 2Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 3Q25 Actual | 3Q26 Citi | Diff. | 3Q26 Cons. | Diff. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 37,732 | 37,553 | 0% | 29,491 | 28% | 36,353 | 4% | 38,558 | -2% |
| Gross profit | 17,903 | 17,651 | 1% | 14,652 | 22% | 17,830 | 0% | 18,413 | -3% |
| Grossmargin | 47.4% | 47.0% | +0.4ppt | 49.7% | -2.2 ppt | 49.0% | -1.6 ppt | 47.8% | -0.3ppt |
| Op.profit | 4,144 | 3,725 | 11% | 3,113 | 33% | 3,790 | 9% | 4,106 | 1% |
| OPmargin | 11.0% | 9.9% | +1.1ppt | 10.6% | +0.4ppt | 10.4% | +0.6 ppt | 10.6% | +0.3ppt |
| Net income | 4,126 | 3,805 | 8% | 3,429 | 20% | 3,996 | 3% | 4,135 | %0 |
| EPS (NT$) | 8.05 | 7.42 | 8% | 6.69 | 20% | 7.79 | 3% | 8.09 | 0% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg
Figure 2. Realtek - Estimates Revisions
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - New | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Chg. | 2027E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Chg. | 2028E - New | 2028E - Old | 2028E - Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 149,725 | 143,471 | 4% | 170,420 | 152,915 | 11% | 194,606 | 174,697 | 11% |
| YoY growth | 22% | 17% | 14% | 7% | 14% | 14% | |||
| Gross profit | 72,112 | 71,012 | 2% | 84,584 | 76,612 | 10%98,01988,918 | 10% | ||
| Opex | -55,298 | -54,129 | 2% | -61,963 | -56,954 | 9% | -69,766 | -64,199 | 9% |
| Operating profit | 16,813 | 16,883 | 0% | 22,620 | 19,658 | 15% | 28,254 | 24,719 | 14% |
| Pre-tax profit | 19,480 | 20,010 | -3% | 25,669 | 22,919 | 12% | 31,302 | 27,979 | 12% |
| Net income | 16,954 | 17,107 | -1% | 22,383 | 19,481 | 15% | 27,295 | 23,782 | 15% |
| EPS (NT$) | 33.06 | 33.36 | -1% | 43.64 | 37.99 | 15% | 53.22 | 46.37 | 15% |
| Gross margin | 48.2% | 49.5% | -1.3 ppt | 49.6% | 50.1% | -0.5 ppt | 50.4% | 50.9%-0.5 | ppt |
| Opex ratio | -36.9% | -37.7%+0.8 | ppt | -36.4% | -37.2%+0.9 | ppt | -35.8% | -36.7%+0.9 | ppt |
| Operating margin | 11.2% | 11.8% | -0.5 ppt | 13.3% | 12.9%+0.4 | ppt | 14.5% | 14.1%+0.4 | ppt |
| Net margin | 11.3% | 11.9%-0.6 | ppt | 13.1% | 12.7%+0.4 | ppt | 14.0% | 13.6%+0.4 | ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Prepared for [訂閱者已遮蔽]
Figure 5. Realtek - Forecast Summary
| Realtek | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | |||||||
| (NT$ in mn) | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4QE | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenue | 35,022 | 31,914 | 29,491 | 26,278 | 36,423 | 37,553 | 37,732 | 38,018 | 122,706 | 149,725 | 170,420 | 194,606 |
| COGS | -16,965 | -15,885 | -14,839 | -13,643 | -18,336 | -19,902 | -19,829 | -19,547 | -61,333 | -77,613 | -85,836 | -96,586 |
| Gross Profit | 18,057 | 16,029 | 14,652 | 12,635 | 18,087 | 17,651 | 17,903 | 18,471 | 61,374 | 72,112 | 84,584 | 98,019 |
| Operating Expense | -13,153 | -12,021 | -11,538 | -10,301 | -13,755 | -13,926 | -13,759 | -13,858 | -47,014 | -55,298 | -61,963 | -69,766 |
| SG&A expenses | -3,374 | -2,972 | -2,889 | -2,625 | -3,749 | -3,696 | -3,207 | -3,231 | -11,860 | -13,883 | -15,231 | -16,875 |
| R&D expenses | -9,732 | -9,054 | -8,644 | -7,694 | -9,971 | -10,215 | -10,572 | -10,645 | -35,125 | -41,403 | -46,721 | -52,879 |
| EBIT | 4,904 | 4,008 | 3,113 | 2,335 | 4,332 | 3,725 | 4,144 | 4,612 | 14,360 | 16,813 | 22,620 | 28,254 |
| Net Interest Income | 634 | 653 | 639 | 622 | 574 | 622 | 864 | 722 | 2,548 | 2,781 | 2,860 | 2,860 |
| Net Other Income | 68 | -36 | 292 | 30 | 72 | 23 | -258 | 48 | 353 | -115 | 188 | 188 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 5,605 | 4,624 | 4,045 | 2,986 | 4,977 | 4,370 | 4,750 | 5,382 | 17,261 | 19,480 | 25,669 | 31,302 |
| Tax | -844 | -715 | -616 | -332 | -648 | -565 | -624 | -689 | -2,507 | -2,526 | -3,286 | -4,007 |
| Net Profit | 4,762 | 3,909 | 3,429 | 2,654 | 4,330 | 3,805 | 4,126 | 4,693 | 14,753 | 16,954 | 22,383 | 27,295 |
| EPS (NT$) | 9.28 | 7.62 | 6.69 | 5.17 | 8.44 | 7.42 | 8.05 | 9.15 | 28.77 | 33.06 | 43.64 | 53.22 |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 50.2% | 49.7% | 48.1% | 49.7% | 47.0% | 47.4% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 48.2% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Operating Margin | 14.0% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 14.5% |
| Net Margin | 13.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| Sequential Growth (%) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 33% | %6- | %8- | -11% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% | 22% | 14% | 14% |
| Gross Profit | 42% | -11% | %6- | -14% | 43% | -2% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 17% | 17% | 16% |
| EBIT | 70% | -18% | -22% | -25% | 86% | -14% | 11% | 11% | 6% | %% | 35% | 25% |
| Net Profit | 40% | -18% | -12% | -23% | 63% | -12% | 8% | 14% | -4% | 15% | 32% | 22% |
| EPS | 40% | -18% | -12% | -23% | 63% | -12% | 8% | 14% | -4% | 15% | 32% | 22% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, company data Prepared for [訂閱者已遮蔽]
Bull/Bear: Realtek (2379.TW)
BULL Assumptions
- Stronger-than-expected growth momentum for automotive Ethernet sales
- Better-than-expected PC/NB and consumer electronic demand
BASE Assumptions
- 2027E GM to sustain at around 50%
- Our base case TP is based on our target PER of 20x to our 2027 average EPS estimates
BEAR Assumptions
- Weaker-than-expected growth momentum for automotive Ethernet sales
- Worse-than-expected PC/NB and consumer electronic demand
- Slower-than-expected GM expansion due to pricing competition from peers
Prepared for [訂閱者已遮蔽]
Realtek
Company description
Founded in 1987, Realtek is a leading fabless semiconductor with headquarters in Hsinchu, Taiwan. It has an extensive global footprint with operational offices in China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and the US. Realtek's product portfolio is well-diversified; generally, it can be categorized into three business groups: Communications Network (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, automotive Ethernet, PC Ethernet, switch, etc.), Computer Peripherals (audio codec, clock IC, card reader, IP cam SoC, USB hub controller, Type-C controller, SSD controller) and Multimedia (TV SoC, LCD controller, STB SoC, etc.).
Investment strategy
We rate the shares Buy. We believe Realtek is well-positioned to ride on continued specs upgrade demand for WiFi, switch and 10G PON as well as the strong advancements in the automotive and IoT sectors. In the long term, we believe Realtek's cost-effective, high-performance, and comprehensive wired and wireless solutions should become more critical with the growing connectivity requirement at the edge.
Valuation
Our target price for Realtek is set at NT$900 based on our target PE multiple of 20x to our 2027 EPS. We believe our PER of 20x, higher than its 3-year forward PER average, is justified by its solid growth opportunity in automotive and switch/PON business. We also believe its continued efforts in products mix optimization should help to support its margins expansion. At our target price, the shares would trade at a 2026/27E P/B of 8x/6x.
Risks
Key downside risks to our target price include: 1) Slowdown in technology migration for its networking business; 2) Weaker-than-expected growth momentum for automotive Ethernet sales; 3) Worse-than-expected PC/NB and consumer electronic demand; 4) Slower-than-expected GM expansion due to pricing competition from peers; and 5) Higher-than-expected memory cost burden to dampen the order outlook from its networking and PC/NB clients.
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