報告_Citi_寶雅5904_降評中立_20260916

PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_寶雅5904_降評中立_20260916_original.pdf

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原始內容

(RIC: 5904.1W0, BB: 590411)

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16 Sep 2026 09:22:21 ET │ 14 pages

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Poya (5904.TWO)

Positives Mostly Priced In; Downgrade to Neutral

CITI'S TAKE

We downgrade Poya to Neutral from Buy following its strong YTD share price performance. Although operating momentum remains positive in the nearterm (we expect a strong Sep SSSG and solid 3Q earnings), we believe the rally has already reflected much of the benefit from robust SSSG YTD and margin expansion. Looking ahead, tough comparisons from 4Q26E may make solid SSSG harder to sustain, limiting earnings upside and potential weighing on stock sentiment. Meanwhile, Cosmed's expanding rollout of Olive Young brands adds to competition pressure for beauty spending. We trim our DCF-based TP to NT$70, implying 18x NTM P/E vs. 5-year mean of 17x. We view current risk/reward as balanced.

Strong performance leaves less room for further upside -Poya's shares have rallied 73% YTD, outperforming the benchmark's 57% gain and broadly flat performance for the TW retail sector. This reflects strong operating deliver, including 6-7% YTD SSSG and solid margin expansion supported by op leverage and headcount optimization. While the company may continue to grow earnings through store expansion and productivity improvements, we believe much of this outlook is already priced in. Further share price appreciation may require additional earnings upside, which could become more difficult to deliver if SSSG moderates.

Tougher comp from 4Q26E could temper SSSG momentum -Poya's YTD SSSG has benefited from 4-5% ticket growth, partly reflecting price inflation, as well as traffic growth 1-2%. We expect the comp base to become more demanding from 4Q26E onward, increasing the hurdle for keeping the current growth rate. Slower SSSG could reduce incremental op leverage and limit further margin expansion. Given its YTD rally, a shift to positive but slower growth could weigh on sentiment.

Cosmed's Olive Young rollout raises competition pressure -Cosmed introduced four Olive Young, Korea's leading beauty retail channel, proprietary brands in late Dec 2025 and planned to expand dedicated sections to 120 stores by end-2026E (~20% of Cosmed's total store count), increasing local access to popular Korean beauty products. Per Cosmed, PSD at locations carrying OY brands increased by MSD y/y YTD vs. MSD y/y down across its overall network, suggesting the brands are gaining customer interest. We believe broader availability and product selection could intensity competition for customer visits and beauty spending, potentially slowing Poya's traffic growth and increasing promotional pressure. (continued)

Earnings Summary

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See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

Price Performance (RIC: 5904.TWO, BB: 5904 TT)

Angela Hsu AC

+886-2-8726-9083 angela.hc.hsu@citi.com

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Poya (5904.TWO): Positives Mostly Priced In; Downgrade to Neutral

Implications -We keep our earnings estimates largely unchanged for 20262028E yet we trim our DCF-based TP to NT$70 from prior NT$74.5 mainly to factor in a lower terminal growth of 4.5% (down from 5%). We also factor in its stock split in Aug 2026. Our target price of NT$70 implies an 18x NTM forward P/E vs its 5year historical mean of 17x, which looks balanced to us.

We believe Poya's store expansion and efficiency improvements may continue to support earnings, but we see limited scope for further re-rating given the earnings growth moderation (net profits +9% y/y in 2027E vs. +27% y/y in 2026E based on our estimate) and its strong share-price gains to date. Tougher comparisons and rising competition add uncertainty around the durability of SSSG momentum and margin expansion.

We would prefer to see sustained traffic growth through the higher comp base, clearer evidence of additional earnings upside or a more attractive entry point before becoming more positive on the shares.

Figure 1. Poya: Our Earnings Estimate Revision

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates

Figure 2. Poya: Monthly SSSG Trend

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research

Figure 3. Poya: Annual SSSG Trend

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research

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© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates

Figure 5. Poya: Net Profits and y/y

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates

NT$

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Sep 25 Oct 25

" Sales growth of 15-17% in 2026E

• 11% Upside

NT$ 70.00

· 4.9% Downside

Bull/Bear: Poya (5904.TWO)

BASE Assumptions

• Sales growth of 10-15% in 2026E

• OPM of 17-17.5% in 2026E

• Implied NTM P/E 18x

BEAR Assumptions

• 423 • Sales growth of 5-10% in 2026E

• OPM of 15.5-16% in 2026E

• Implied NTM P/E 14x

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NT$ 52.00

• 29% Downside

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Poya

Company description

Poya is the largest retailer of fast-moving consumer goods in Taiwan, focusing on low-priced cosmetics, accessories, clothing and food products for females aged 15-49. Poya had 470 stores in Taiwan at the end of 2025 and believes that the market can accommodate up to 700-800 stores before reaching saturation.

Investment strategy

We have a Neutral rating on Poya. We think YTD rally has baked in most positives, including strong SSSG and solid margin expansion. While fundamentals remain solid, tougher comparisons from 4Q26E could moderate this year's 6-7% SSSG, lowering operating leverage and capping further earnings upside. Meanwhile, Cosmed's expanding rollout of Olive Young brands is intensifying competition for beauty spending. Although Poya's SSSG has remained resilient, braoder distribution of these brands could divert customer traffic and increase promotional pressure. We continue to recognize Poya's execution in store expansion and ongoing efficiency improvements. However, with these strengths largely reflected in the share price and growth momentum facing a higher hurdle from 4Q26E onward, we see a more balanced risk/reward.

Valuation

We derive our 12-month target price of NT$70 for Poya from a DCF valuation method. Our assumptions include a terminal growth rate of 4.5% and WACC of 10.1% (beta of 1.05; risk-free rate of 4%; risk premium of 7.0%; cost of equity of 11.3%). Our target price implies a P/E of 18x on our NTM EPS.

Risks

Key downside risks that could mean the shares fail to achieve our target price include: intense price competition among online retailers, slower store traffic, margin dilution due to aggressive store expansion, and a soft macro environment.

Key upside risks that could mean the shares fail to achieve our target price include: easing price competition among online retailers, stronger store traffic, margin expansion thanks to strong cost control, and a stronger macro environment.

Analyst: Angela Hsu

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Date

Appendix A-1

*Indicates Change