報告_大和_瑞昱2379_20260512

PDF 原檔：報告_大和_瑞昱2379_20260512_original.pdf

原始內容

Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT)

Target price:

TWD615.00 (from TWD575.00)

Share price (12 May):

TWD555.00

|

Up/downside:

+10.8%

When uncertainty overshadows reality?

• Likely a prolonged pre-stocking on supply-chain issues …
• … yet demand rebalancing to be pushed back, not pushed out
• Reaffirming our Buy (1) call with a higher 12M TP of TWD615

What’s new: Following our results memo , we leave our forecasts little changed for Realtek to reflect its latest business dynamics. We expect a prolonged demand pre-stocking for a stronger 1H26 revenue build on customers’ lingering concerns over supply-chain uncertainties. This counter-seasonal print should, however, result in a deeper 2H26 correction on demand rebalancing, when customers destock to manage inventory amid likely deteriorated consumer demand on commodity price hikes. That said, we reaffirm our Buy (1) rating on valuation grounds as this likely correction should be seasonal and already in the price. We remain positive on Realtek’s structural outlook riding on the multi-G (gigabits/second) bandwidth upgrade cycles across wireless and wireline communications.

What’s the impact: Forecast revisions. We lower our 2H26E revenue for Realtek with a below-seasonal print to reflect likely a demand rebalancing, after it enjoys counter-seasonal 1H26E on customers’ restocking and prestocking - an anti-seasonal pattern similar to that of 2025 ( Upgrading: turnaround around the corner , 10 March). Net of the rebalancing effect, we leave our 2026 forecasts little changed. We are now modelling a higher gross-margin trajectory to factor in the better product mix and Realtek’s bargaining power of partially passing rising material and manufacturing costs on to its customers. In this note, we introduce our 2028 forecasts with an EPS of c.TWD40 for a 13% CAGR over 2025-28E.

Rebalancing pushed back, not pushed out. In our sector update ( Game over? Not so soon but … , 30 March), we flagged our view on deteriorated consumer demand across the PC and smartphone segments due to commodity price hikes that hurt consumer purchases. We stick with this view and continue to see a likely demand rebalancing at Realtek, despite the timing now being pushed back by one quarter to 3Q26E. That said, we believe the potential correction in 2H26E is seasonal and poses no threat to Realtek’s structural business. After two years of anti-seasonal performance, we still expect its EPS YoY growth to turn positive from 2Q26 and sustain the momentum into 2028, supported by the multi-year, multi-G bandwidth upgrade cycle across wireline and wireless communications.

What we recommend: Given our forecast revisions, we raise our 12M TP for Realtek to TWD615 (previous: TWD575), as we fine-tune our 4-quarter forward PER target to 19x, from 18x, to capture its expanded YoY EPS growth after the turnaround in 2Q26E. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating with key downside risk of commodity price hikes leading to worse-than-expected consumer demand resulting in a choppy earnings rebound.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 1-12% below the consensus, likely on our deeper rebalancing effect that lowers the forecasting trajectory.

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec	26E	27E	28E
Revenue change	1.4	(0.9)	n.a.
Net profit change	2.5	1.4	n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change	0.4	(0.7)	n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range	445.00-592.00
Market cap (USDbn)	9.12
3m avg daily turnover (USDm)	61.49
Shares outstanding (m)	516
Major shareholder	JPMorgan Chase & Co (5.2%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec	26E	27E	28E
Revenue (m)	136,308	153,625	183,495
Operating profit (m)	16,800	18,975	21,876
Net profit (m)	16,742	18,643	21,209
Core EPS (fully-diluted)	31.847	35.464	40.345
EPS change (%)	13.5	11.4	13.8
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%)	2.1	(1.1)	(12.0)
PER (x)	17.4	15.6	13.8
Dividend yield (%)	4.5	4.9	5.2
DPS	25.0	27.0	29.0
PBR (x)	5.1	4.6	4.2
EV/EBITDA (x)	10.7	9.6	8.1
ROE (%)	30.9	31.7	32.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Realtek: quarterly P&L forecasts

TWDm	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	1Q26	2Q26E	3Q26E	4Q26E	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Revenue	35,022	31,914	29,491	26,278	36,423	36,330	32,562	30,993	122,706	136,308	153,625	183,495
COGS	16,965	15,885	14,839	13,643	18,336	18,421	16,683	15,899	61,333	69,339	78,560	94,628
Gross profit	18,057	16,029	14,652	12,635	18,087	17,909	15,879	15,094	61,374	66,968	75,065	88,867
Opex	13,153	12,021	11,538	10,301	13,755	13,406	11,788	11,219	47,014	50,168	56,090	66,991
SG&A	3,374	2,972	2,889	2,607	3,278	3,161	2,735	2,634	11,841	11,808	13,384	15,981
R&D	9,780	9,049	8,649	7,694	10,477	10,245	9,052	8,585	35,172	38,360	42,706	51,010
Operating profit	4,904	4,008	3,113	2,335	4,332	4,503	4,091	3,875	14,360	16,800	18,975	21,876
Pre-tax profit	5,605	4,624	4,045	2,986	4,977	5,183	4,771	4,565	17,261	19,496	21,805	24,806
Income taxes	844	715	616	332	649	752	692	662	2,507	2,754	3,162	3,597
Net profit	4,762	3,909	3,429	2,654	4,329	4,431	4,079	3,903	14,753	16,742	18,643	21,209
O/S (M, fully diluted)	521	515	514	526	526	526	526	526	526	526	526	526
FD EPS (TWD)	9.14	7.59	6.67	5.05	8.23	8.43	7.76	7.42	28.06	31.85	35.46	40.35
As a %of revenue
Gross profit	51.6%	50.2%	49.7%	48.1%	49.7%	49.3%	48.8%	48.7%	50.0%	49.1%	48.9%	48.4%
Opex	37.6%	37.7%	39.1%	39.2%	37.8%	36.9%	36.2%	36.2%	38.3%	36.8%	36.5%	36.5%
SG&A	9.6%	9.3%	9.8%	9.9%	9.0%	8.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
R&D	27.9%	28.4%	29.3%	29.3%	28.8%	28.2%	27.8%	27.7%	28.7%	28.1%	27.8%	27.8%
Operating profit	14.0%	12.6%	10.6%	8.9%	11.9%	12.4%	12.6%	12.5%	11.7%	12.3%	12.4%	11.9%
Net profit	13.6%	12.2%	11.6%	10.1%	11.9%	12.2%	12.5%	12.6%	12.0%	12.3%	12.1%	11.6%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue	33%	-9%	-8%	-11%	39%	0%	-10%	-5%
Gross profit	42%	-11%	-9%	-14%	43%	-1%	-11%	-5%
Operating profit	70%	-18%	-22%	-25%	86%	4%	-9%	-5%
Net profit	40%	-18%	-12%	-23%	63%	2%	-8%	-4%
FD EPS	39%	-17%	-12%	-24%	63%	2%	-8%	-4%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue	37%	4%	-4%	0%	4%	14%	10%	18%	8%	11%	13%	19%
Gross profit	39%	3%	-7%	-1%	0%	12%	8%	19%	7%	9%	12%	18%
Operating profit	79%	1%	-20%	-19%	-12%	12%	31%	66%	6%	17%	13%	15%
Net profit	52%	-11%	-22%	-22%	-9%	13%	19%	47%	-4%	13%	11%	14%
FD EPS	51%	-11%	-21%	-23%	-10%	11%	16%	47%	-5%	13%	11%	14%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Realtek: 1Q26 revenue mix by application

Source: Daiwa estimates

Realtek: quarterly inventory trend

Source: Company

Realtek: monthly revenue run-rate

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts (for May-Dec 2026)

Realtek: 4-quarter forward PER bands

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Networking & communication (%)	71	76	77	77	77	79	80	81
Computer & peripheral (%)	14	12	10	11	10	9	9	9
Multimedia & consumer (%)	15	13	13	13	13	12	11	10

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Networking & communication revenue	75,067	84,710	73,133	86,991	94,382	108,308	123,314	148,989
Computer & peripheral revenue	14,542	12,871	9,464	12,180	12,379	11,782	13,340	15,607
Other Revenue	15,896	14,209	12,582	14,223	15,945	16,218	16,972	18,900
Total Revenue	105,504	111,790	95,179	113,394	122,706	136,308	153,625	183,495
Other income	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COGS	(52,316)	(57,155)	(54,431)	(56,232)	(61,333)	(69,339)	(78,560)	(94,628)
SG&A	(7,910)	(8,863)	(7,633)	(10,073)	(11,841)	(11,808)	(13,384)	(15,981)
Other op.expenses	(27,953)	(30,048)	(26,460)	(33,544)	(35,172)	(38,360)	(42,706)	(51,010)
Operating profit	17,325	15,724	6,655	13,545	14,360	16,800	18,975	21,876
Net-interest inc./(exp.)	220	733	2,335	2,504	2,548	2,685	2,830	2,930
Assoc/forex/extraord./others	30	465	555	336	353	11	0	0
Pre-tax profit	17,575	16,922	9,545	16,384	17,261	19,496	21,805	24,806
Tax	(722)	(718)	(392)	(1,050)	(2,507)	(2,754)	(3,162)	(3,597)
Min. int./pref. div./others	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net profit (reported)	16,853	16,204	9,153	15,335	14,753	16,742	18,643	21,209
Net profit (adjusted)	16,853	16,204	9,153	15,335	14,753	16,742	18,643	21,209
EPS (reported)(TWD)	33.000	31.623	17.847	29.900	28.619	32.477	36.165	41.142
EPS (adjusted)(TWD)	33.000	31.623	17.847	29.900	28.619	32.477	36.165	41.142
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD)	32.384	30.483	17.587	29.742	28.064	31.847	35.464	40.345
DPS (TWD)	14.000	27.023	27.000	15.499	25.369	25.000	27.000	29.000
EBIT	17,325	15,724	6,655	13,545	14,360	16,800	18,975	21,876
EBITDA	19,626	18,528	9,680	16,889	18,079	20,961	23,689	27,554

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Profit before tax	17,575	16,922	9,545	16,384	17,261	19,496	21,805	24,806
Depreciation and amortisation	2,301	2,804	3,025	3,344	3,719	4,160	4,714	5,678
Tax paid	(722)	(718)	(392)	(1,050)	(2,507)	(2,754)	(3,162)	(3,597)
Change in working capital	(9,811)	(5,938)	9,803	1,875	8,115	6,359	(7,082)	(723)
Other operational CF items	9,009	5,987	(4,084)	3,424	(3,573)	0	0	(0)
Cash flow from operations	18,352	19,058	17,896	23,978	23,015	27,261	16,275	26,164
Capex	(2,510)	(2,451)	(2,167)	(2,347)	(2,089)	(2,726)	(3,073)	(3,670)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals	(45)	(370)	0	(2,240)	0	0	0	0
Other investing CF items	(11,478)	2,456	3,251	(5,121)	(14,291)	(2,045)	(2,304)	(2,752)
Cash flow from investing	(14,033)	(366)	1,084	(9,707)	(16,380)	(4,771)	(5,377)	(6,422)
Change in debt	2,903	1,107	(8,977)	250	5,590	0	0	0
Net share issues/(repurchases)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dividends paid	(7,150)	(13,847)	(13,847)	(7,949)	(13,078)	(12,888)	(13,919)	(14,950)
Other financing CF items	(90)	(98)	(115)	(2,367)	(128)	0	0	0
Cash flow from financing	(4,337)	(12,838)	(22,939)	(10,066)	(7,616)	(12,888)	(13,919)	(14,950)
Forex effect/others	(81)	703	472	383	(766)	0	0	0
Change in cash	(99)	6,557	(3,486)	4,588	(1,747)	9,603	(3,021)	4,791
Free cash flow	15,842	16,607	15,730	21,631	20,926	24,535	13,202	22,494

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Cash & short-term investment	52,891	56,913	43,590	55,099	61,376	70,978	67,957	72,749
Inventory	16,549	25,553	11,757	13,506	19,561	10,834	19,298	16,998
Accounts receivable	15,989	12,013	12,757	12,305	15,011	18,599	19,281	25,964
Other current assets	817	1,013	1,183	3,747	1,409	1,409	1,409	1,409
Total current assets	86,245	95,492	69,288	84,658	97,357	101,821	107,946	117,120
Fixed assets	6,303	5,210	7,068	8,441	10,100	11,453	12,970	14,766
Goodwill & intangibles	2,232	2,413	2,625	2,659	3,475	2,732	2,679	2,593
Other non-current assets	6,452	10,586	14,836	18,138	18,972	18,972	18,972	18,972
Total assets	101,232	113,701	93,815	113,897	129,903	134,978	142,568	153,451
Short-term debt	13,342	13,738	4,250	4,500	10,090	10,090	10,090	10,090
Accounts payable	11,443	10,496	7,273	9,584	11,738	12,958	15,022	18,681
Other current liabilities	34,036	38,310	34,723	43,877	52,928	52,928	52,928	52,928
Total current liabilities	58,821	62,545	46,246	57,961	74,756	75,976	78,040	81,699
Long-term debt	1,003	1,713	2,227	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current liabilities	2,456	2,680	3,104	2,978	2,935	2,935	2,935	2,935
Total liabilities	62,280	66,938	51,577	60,939	77,691	78,911	80,975	84,634
Share capital	5,107	5,129	5,129	5,129	5,155	5,155	5,155	5,155
Reserves/R.E./others	33,836	41,625	37,100	47,819	47,047	50,902	56,427	63,652
Shareholders’ equity	38,943	46,753	42,228	52,948	52,202	56,057	61,582	68,807
Minority interests	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Total equity & liabilities	101,232	113,701	93,815	113,897	129,903	134,978	142,568	153,451
EV	247,573	244,658	249,006	235,520	234,834	225,231	228,252	223,461
Net debt/(cash)	(38,546)	(41,462)	(37,113)	(50,599)	(51,286)	(60,888)	(57,867)	(62,659)
BVPS (TWD)	76.256	91.242	82.339	103.240	101.263	108.740	119.459	133.473

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Sales (YoY)	35.7	6.0	(14.9)	19.1	8.2	11.1	12.7	19.4
EBITDA (YoY)	84.7	(5.6)	(47.8)	74.5	7.0	15.9	13.0	16.3
Operating profit (YoY)	100.5	(9.2)	(57.7)	103.5	6.0	17.0	12.9	15.3
Net profit (YoY)	91.7	(3.8)	(43.5)	67.5	(3.8)	13.5	11.4	13.8
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY)	91.3	(5.9)	(42.3)	69.1	(5.6)	13.5	11.4	13.8
Gross-profit margin	50.4	48.9	42.8	50.4	50.0	49.1	48.9	48.4
EBITDA margin	18.6	16.6	10.2	14.9	14.7	15.4	15.4	15.0
Operating-profit margin	16.4	14.1	7.0	11.9	11.7	12.3	12.4	11.9
Net profit margin	16.0	14.5	9.6	13.5	12.0	12.3	12.1	11.6
ROAE	49.3	37.8	20.6	32.2	28.1	30.9	31.7	32.5
ROAA	18.8	15.1	8.8	14.8	12.1	12.6	13.4	14.3
ROCE	36.8	27.2	12.0	25.5	24.0	26.2	27.5	29.1
ROIC	n.a.	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a.	n.a.	n.a
Net debt to equity	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Effective tax rate	4.1	4.2	4.1	6.4	14.5	14.1	14.5	14.5
Accounts receivable (days)	51.3	45.7	47.5	40.3	40.6	45.0	45.0	45.0
Current ratio (x)	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4
Net interest cover (x)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Net dividend payout	81.3	82.1	85.5	86.9	87.7	87.4	83.1	80.2
Free cash flow yield	5.5	5.8	5.5	7.6	7.3	8.6	4.6	7.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Realtek focuses on research, design, development and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs) for applications across networking & communication (NC), computer & peripheral (CP) and multimedia & consumer (MM). The majority of its revenue comes from NC products, including WiFi, Bluetooth, Ethernet and switch controllers. It also provides diversified CP products such as audio codec, IP cam, and solid-state drive (SSD) controllers as well as MM products like TV SoC and monitor controllers.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks		Analyst comments
G	Executive/board quality	Realtek’s Board of Directors consists of nine members whose expertise spans industry, academia, finance, accounting, and management, providing the company with a broad and diverse range of professional perspectives. Three of these directors are independent, representing 33 percent of the board and exceeding the regulatory minimum requirement of 20 percent for independent directors. This higher proportion of independent directors enhances oversight, helps safeguard shareholder interests, and supports more objective decision - making. However, an important governance risk remains in the area of board diversity. The board currently includes only one female director out of nine members, which represents 11 percent of the total. This limited female representation may constrain the breadth of viewpoints and experiences reflected in board discussions and could be perceived as misaligned with evolving stakeholder expectations and best practices on gender diversity in corporate governance.
	Capital management	In the past 8 years, Realtek’s dividend payout ratios were above 80%. As a fabless company, it does not need high capital expenditure for manufacturing sites. Realtek’s business has shown stable earnings growth over its 30-year history. Thus, we see its dividend policy with a high payout ratio as appropriate.
	Related party & transaction	Realtek’s related-party transactions are primarily with G.M.I. Technology Inc. and Greatek Electronics Inc. Realtek pays certain processing costs to related parties. These payments are made under standard commercial terms and conditions. Overall, we do not observe any significant impact on Realtek’s business arising from these related-party transactions.
S	Supply chain management	Realtek has formulated a set of supplier management regulations in accordance with Realtek’s Supplier Sustainability Management Policy. It requires suppliers to obtain ISO9001 quality management system certification to ensure that all of its suppliers possess a high level of environment awareness.
E Water & wastewater management		As a fabless company without manufacturing plants, Realtek does not produce much wastewater compared to manufacturing companies, and thus has a relatively limited impact on the environment. Realtek has implemented a water conservation plan to increase water efficiency, such as the reuse of rainwater, re-circulating water in its cooling tower and installing water- saving devices. Its water saving rate (=reduced water consumption/total water withdrawn) increased gradually.
E	Waste & hazardous materials management	The company reports to the Executive Yuan’s Environmental Protection Administration waste and reporting management system every month on the quantity of waste and its method of disposal. In 2024, it produced 26.10 tonnes of industrial waste, maintaining over a 90% recycling rate for hazardous industrial waste.
E	GHG emissions	Realtek has independently conducted GHG emission inventory and management at its Hsinchu Headquarters since 2019. In 2022, Realtek implemented a comprehensive ISO 14064-1:2018 GHG inventory and passed third-party verification. As of 2024, the company has completed GHG emission inventory and third-party verification for all sites within the Realtek Group.

Note: Management score represents a company’s ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company