報告_MS_GB200-300_NVL72機櫃_20260511
PDF 原檔：報告_MS_GB200-300_NVL72機櫃_20260511_original.pdf
原始內容
M May 11, 2026 02:28 AM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
GB200/300 NVL72 Racks in April 2026
We provide our monthly and quarterly rack shipment forecasts for ODMs. Within the major GPU AI server ODMs, our order of preference is Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta.
Key Takeaways
- We estimate GB200/300 rack output in Apr-26 at ~8.3K (-3% m/m), of which:
- Quanta shipped ~2.1K GB200/300 racks.
- Wistron shipped 1.3-1.4K GB200/300 racks.
- Hon Hai shipped ~3.7K GB200/300 racks.
We continue to forecast 70-80K racks in CY26: This year should continue to be a strong year for downstream rack assembly. We expect over 100% y/y growth in rack shipments, vs. ~29k last year. Our GPU ODM preference is Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta.
We believe actual rack deliveries to end-customers are likely lower than these numbers because we include Wistron’s computing tray (L10) rack equivalent (without accounting for rack assembly and test times for L11).
Quanta (2382.TW, OW): April revenue was NT$340B (-6% m/m, +121% y/y). We attribute the m/m decline primarily to lower NB shipments at 3.5M units (-34% m/ m) in April. But for GB200/300 rack shipments in the month, we estimate Quanta shipped ~2.1K, only marginally below 2.1-2.2K in March. We still believe Quanta is on track for 7K+ racks in 2Q26.
Wistron (3231.TW, OW): April revenue was NT82.7B), 2) lower NB shipment at 1.8M units (-36% m/m), 3) lower DT/ Monitor shipments, and 4) slightly lower GB200/300 server computing tray shipments (1,300-1,400 rack equivalents, on our estimates, vs 1,500-1,600 in March). GB200/300 server computing tray shipments in April beat our expectation, which we think could imply upside in 2Q. We now estimate 2Q rack shipment at ~4.2K (+4% q/q), vs. prior forecast of flattish m/m.
Hon Hai (2317.TW, OW, covered by Sharon Shih): Based on our checks (link), HH’s GB rack shipments were flattish m/m at ~3.7K racks in April. For 2Q26, we think Hon Hai should continue to increase AI server rack shipments q/q, with 2Q26 AI rack shipments expected to reach ~10K units (+18% q/q, slightly higher vs. +15% q/q previously).
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Sharon Shih Equity Analyst Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2865 |
| Irene Yen Research Associate Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2869 |
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View
In-Line
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GB200/300 Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Industry-wide GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent monthly rack output, by major ODMs (2025)
GB200/300 NVL72 racks by major ODMs (000s)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Exhibit 3: (2025-2026)
Exhibit 2: Industry-wide GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent monthly rack output, by major ODMs (2026)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Industry-wide GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent monthly rack output, by major ODMs
Hon Hai
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Quanta
Wistron
Wiwynn
Others
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Exhibit 4: GB200/300 rack supply share, by major ODMs (2025)
GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack supply share (2025)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Exhibit 5: GB200/300 rack supply share, by major ODMs (2026)
GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack supply share (2026)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
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Valuation Methodology and Risks
Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW)
Base case scenario value, derived from a residual income valuation model. Our key assumptions include a cost of equity of 8.5%, a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Better-than-expected iPhone sell-through
- n Faster progress in AI server business
- n Faster EV business development progress
- n Any new M&A activity that could improve sentiment
Risks to Downside
- n Lower iPhone sell-through
- n Smaller profit contribution from AI business
- n Slower EV business development progress
- n Geopolitical developments that could negatively affect foreign investment
Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW)
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.0% (beta of 1.2, equity premium of 6.0% and risk-free rate of 1.5%), an 8.5% medium-term growth rate and a 3% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
- n Stronger-than-expected Apple Watch demand
- n Stronger-than-expected server demand
- n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration
Risks to Downside
- n Weaker-than-expected NB demand
- n Softer-than-expected Apple Watch demand
- n Weak margin performance owing to rising labor costs and sales shortfalls
- n Fierce price competition in the mega data center segment
- n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration
Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
Base case, residual income valuation. Key assumptions: 8.7% cost of equity, 7.0% mediumterm growth rate and 3% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
- n Faster-than-expected divestiture of consumer electronics business
- n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
- n Margin expansion from better product mix
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- n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration
Risks to Downside
- n Slower-than-expected divestiture of consumer electronics business
- n Weaker-than-expected NB demand
- n Margin contraction from sales shortfall and fierce competition
- n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration
Idea
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