MS｜ Monthly Databook｜iPhone Build Strength to Carry into 3Q26 for New Premium Models Debut｜20260614

PDF 原檔：MS｜ Monthly Databook｜iPhone Build Strength to Carry into 3Q26 for New Premium Models Debut｜20260614_original.pdf

原始內容

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Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Monthly Databook: iPhone Build Strength to Carry into 3Q26 for New Premium Models Debut

Key Takeaways

• 2Q26e iPhone builds estimate stays at 52mn units (down 7% QoQ, up 12% YoY).
• 3Q26e iPhone builds introduced at 54mn units (up 4% QoQ, down 2% YoY).
• We keep 2Q26e iPad builds at 13mn units (up 8% QoQ, down 10% YoY).
• 3Q26 iPad builds introduced at 13mn units (flat QoQ, down 7% YoY).

We keep our 2Q26 iPhone build estimate at 52mn units, down 7% QoQ (+12%

YoY), vs. the historical 15-25% QoQ declines previously seen for 2Q. Our checks suggest better-than-seasonal builds this quarter from major assembly partners including Hon Hai, with iPhone shipments in May up MoM. This indicates to us that iPhone sell-through continues to trend well amid memory cost hikes.

We introduce our preliminary 3Q26 iPhone build estimate at 54mn units, up 4% QoQ (-2% YoY). The slower run rate mainly reflects new model SKUs shifting to the premium segment (18 Pro/Pro Max and iPhone Fold), while the iPhone 18 model is scheduled for introduction in 1H27. We currently expect 7-8mn iPhone Fold builds in 2H26 and will closely monitor the ramp-up progress.

We keep our 2Q26 iPad build forecast at 13mn units, up 8% QoQ (-10% YoY). The YoY decline reflects a higher base in 2Q25 given product launches. We introduce our preliminary 3Q26 iPad build forecast at 13mn units, flat QoQ (-7% YoY), as we expect stocking to remain normal, although memory and material price hikes could have an impact.

Exhibit 1 : iPhone Sell-in Data, by Quarter

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Asia Research estimates based on company announcements and supply chain checks.

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Update

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View

In-Line

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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