PDF 原檔：260605_3023_信邦_citi_sinbon_original.pdf
原始內容
(RIC: 3023.1W, BB: 3023 11)
TWD
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05 Jun 2026 12:11:48 ET │ 13 pages
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Sinbon (3023.TW)
What's New at Citi Taiwan Tech Conference 2026 - Solid Fundamentals Remain Intact
CITI'S TAKE
Sinbon attended Citi TW 2026 Tech Conference on 5 th June. Overall, mgmt. is positive on the solid growth outlook into 2026-2028E, supported by broad-based demand across industrial, medical, auto and emerging businesses such as humanoids, drones, and LEO. In the near-term, strong semi-related orders boost stronger sales outlook; we therefore raise our FY26 sales growth estimate to +16% y/y. We hike our TP to NT$370 based on higher earnings estimates and a higher NTM PE of 23x. Maintain Buy rating as we like the company's solid outlook, robust capacity expansion plan, and multiple mid/long-term growth drivers fueling future growth.
2026E growth outlook appears broad-based, with semi the strongest -By segment, mgmt. expects green energy to rise 8-10% y/y, medical up 15% y/y, automotive up 40% y/y, industrial up >15% y/y (with semi-related sales growing 30% y/y to NT$3-3.5bn), while consumer flat to -5% y/y in 2026E. Strong growth in auto is mainly driven by strong demand for hybrid vehicles. For Enphase, Sinbon expects 2026E sales contribution of NT$2.9-3bn vs. NT$2.5bn in 2025. We raise our 26E sales forecast to grow 16% y/y, up from prior 11% y/y.
Emerging businesses gradually bearing fruits -1) Humanoid robots -Sinbon works with major humanoid robot operators including Figure AI, Amazon and Apptronik. Sales contribution is estimated to be c.NT$0.5bn in 2026 (mostly Figure AI), potentially rising to NT$1bn in 2027E. 2) Drone and battery swap station -Sinbon will start supplying a small volume of battery swap cabinets and drones this year, yet the more meaningful contributions are expected to be in 2027-28E. 3) LEO -mgmt. believes it has a chance to win AWS LEO orders given their strong relationship and the large number of base stations and potential cable content demand across launch systems and in-space applications.
Implications -We raise our earnings ests 5%/6%/6% for 2026/27/28 to factor in a stronger order outlook. We increase our TP to NT$370 reflecting a higher target multiple of 23x 2Q26-1Q27E EPS (up from prior 21.5x in view of improving outlook and multiple emerging businesses gradually bearing fruit), and higher earnings estimates. We retain our Buy rating in view of a solid 26E outlook, robust capacity expansion, and multiple mid/long-term growth drivers fueling future growth.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | DilutedEPS (NT$) | EPSgrowth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 3,529 | 14.7 | 7.1 | 22.4 | 5.2 | 24.3 | 3.1 |
| 2025A | 3,125 | 13.02 | -11.5 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 19.8 | 3 |
| 2026E | 3,720 | 15.5 | 19.1 | 21.2 | 4 | 20.6 | 3.3 |
| 2027E | 4,153 | 17.3 | 11.6 | 19 | 3.7 | 20.1 | 3.7 |
| 2028E | 4,598 | 19.15 | 10.7 | 17.2 | 3.2 | 19.8 | 4.1 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (05 Jun 26 13:30)
NT$329.00
Target price
NT$370.00↑
from NT$310.00
Expected share price return
12.5%
Expected dividend yield
3.1%
Expected total return
15.6%
Market Cap
NT$78,983M
US$2,510M
Price Performance (RIC: 3023.TW, BB: 3023 TT)
Angela Hsu AC
+886-2-8726-9083 angela.hc.hsu@citi.com
| 3023.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price: NT$329.00; TP: NT$370.00; MarketCap:NT$78,983m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$329.00; TP: NT$370.00; MarketCap:NT$78,983m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$329.00; TP: NT$370.00; MarketCap:NT$78,983m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$329.00; TP: NT$370.00; MarketCap:NT$78,983m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$329.00; TP: NT$370.00; MarketCap:NT$78,983m; Recomm:Buy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 33,088 | 31,024 | 35,920 | 40,155 | 44,046 | PE(x) | 22.4 | 25.3 | 21.2 | 19.0 | 17.2 |
| Cost of sales | -24,847 | -23,582 | -27,109 | -30,140 | -32,918 | PB(x) | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Gross profit | 8,241 | 7,441 | 8,810 | 10,015 | 11,129 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 17.6 | 19.4 | 15.8 | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 24.9 | 24.0 | 24.5 | 24.9 | 25.3 | FCFyield (%) | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 4,203 | 3,799 | 4,594 | 5,329 | 5,933 | Dividend yield (%) | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 12.7 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 13.5 | Payout ratio (%) | 70 | 77 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Depreciation | -645 | -541 | -578 | -578 | -578 | ROE(%) | 24.3 | 19.8 | 20.6 | 20.1 | 19.8 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 3,558 | 3,257 | 4,016 | 4,751 | 5,355 | EBITDA | 4,203 | 3,799 | 4,594 | 5,329 | 5,933 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 10.8 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 12.2 | Working capital | -1,163 | 17 | -2,120 | -1,189 | -1,131 |
| Net interest | 34 | 14 | -36 | -38 | -32 | Other | -440 | -161 | -203 | -419 | -577 |
| Associates | 290 | 257 | 228 | 228 | 228 | Operating cashflow | 2,599 | 3,655 | 2,270 | 3,721 | 4,224 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 664 | 434 | 628 | 612 | 573 | Capex | -684 | -870 | -928 | -900 | -900 |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,546 | 3,963 | 4,835 | 5,553 | 6,123 | Net acq/disposals | 24 | -153 | -325 | -228 | -228 |
| Tax | -1,022 | -866 | -1,022 | -1,220 | -1,345 | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 6 | 28 | -93 | -180 | -180 | Investing cashflow | -660 | -1,024 | -1,253 | -1,128 | -1,128 |
| Reported net profit | 3,529 | 3,125 | 3,720 | 4,153 | 4,598 | Dividends paid | -2,304 | -2,461 | -2,401 | -2,594 | -1,016 |
| Net Margin (%) | 10.7 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | Financing cashflow | -2,235 | -1,926 | -193 | -2,774 | -1,196 |
| CoreNPAT | 3,529 | 3,125 | 3,720 | 4,153 | 4,598 | Net change in cash | 64 | 706 | 824 | -180 | 1,901 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 1,915 | 2,785 | 1,342 | 2,821 | 3,324 |
| Reported EPS($) | 14.70 | 13.02 | 15.50 | 17.30 | 19.15 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 14.70 | 13.02 | 15.50 | 17.30 | 19.15 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 10.25 | 10.00 | 10.80 | 12.06 | 13.35 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 10.83 | 15.23 | 9.46 | 15.50 | 17.60 | ||||||
| 7.98 | 11.60 | 5.59 | 11.75 | 13.85 | |||||||
| FCFPS($) BVPS($) | 63.65 | 67.51 | 82.88 | 89.37 | 104.29 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 1.0 | -6.2 | 15.8 | 11.8 | 9.7 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 4.7 | -8.4 | 23.3 | 18.3 | 12.7 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 7.5 | -11.4 | 19.1 | 11.6 | 10.7 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 7.1 | -11.5 | 19.1 | 11.6 | 10.7 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 6,526 | 7,233 | 8,057 | 7,877 | 9,778 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 9,997 | 9,344 | 10,296 | 11,559 | 12,764 | ||||||
| Inventory | 7,435 | 7,956 | 8,521 | 9,563 | 10,547 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 3,481 | 3,809 | 4,159 | 4,482 | 4,804 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Financial &other | 3,197 | 3,647 | 4,002 | 4,389 | 4,768 | ||||||
| Total assets | 30,635 | 31,989 | 35,034 | 37,869 | 42,660 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 5,867 | 6,958 | 6,467 | 7,258 | 8,004 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 3,543 | 3,641 | 3,454 | 3,454 | 3,454 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 15,187 | 15,502 | 14,866 | 16,142 | 17,351 | ||||||
| Minority interests | 167 | 280 | 272 | 272 | 272 | ||||||
| Total equity | 15,448 | 16,487 | 20,169 | 21,727 | |||||||
| -2,983 | -3,591 | -4,603 | -4,423 | 25,309 | |||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -6,324 | ||||||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -19.3 | -21.8 | -22.8 | -20.4 | -25.0 | ||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. |
Figure 1. Sinbon: Earning Estimates Revisions
| FY26E | FY26E | FY26E | FY27E | FY27E | FY27E | FY28E | FY28E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$mn | New | Old | Chg | New | Old | Chg | New | Old | Chg |
| NetSales | 35,920 | 34,288 | 5% | 40,155 | 37,533 | 7% | 44,046 | 41,037 | 7% |
| Gross profit | 8,810 | 8,440 | 4% | 10,015 | 9,466 | 6% | 11,129 | 10,519 | 6% |
| OPEX | 4,795 | 4,640 | 3% | 5,264 | 4,989 | 6% | 5,774 | 5,453 | 6% |
| Operatingprofit | 4,016 | 3,800 | 6% | 4,751 | 4,477 | 6% | 5,355 | 5,066 | 6% |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,835 | 4,598 | 5% | 5,553 | 5,248 | 6% | 6,123 | 5,805 | 5% |
| Netprofit | 3,720 | 3,532 | 5% | 4,153 | 3,909 | 6% | 4,598 | 4,341 | 6% |
| EPS | 15.50 | 14.71 | 5% | 17.30 | 16.28 | 6% | 19.15 | 18.08 | 6% |
| Ratio | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff |
| Gross margin (%) | 24.5 | 24.6 | -0.1ppt | 24.9 | 25.2 | -0.3ppt | 25.3 | 25.6 | -0.4ppt |
| OPEXtoSales ratio(%) | 13.3 | 13.5 | -0.2ppt | 13.1 | 13.3 | -0.2ppt | 13.1 | 13.3 | -0.2ppt |
| Operatingmargin (%) | 11.2 | 11.1 | 0.1ppt | 11.8 | 11.9 | -0.1ppt | 12.2 | 12.3 | -0.2ppt |
| Netmargin (%) | 10.4 | 10.3 | 0.1ppt | 10.3 | 10.4 | -0.1ppt | 10.4 | 10.6 | -0.1ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates
NT$
420
350
280
140
Jun 25
• Target PE at 28x
4 28% Upside
NT$ 370.00
A 12% Upside
Bull/Bear: Sinbon (3023.TW)
BASE Assumptions
• Sales to grow by 16% y/y in 2026E with OPM estimated at 11-11.5%
- Target PE at 23x
BEAR Assumptions
{j. Sales to rise by 5-10% y/y in 2026E with OPM at 10-10.5%
- Target PE at 15x
NT$ 220.00
• 33% Downside
Sinbon
Company description
Sinbon, established in 1989, is a maker of connectors and cable assemblies based in Taiwan. The company offers an extensive range of value-added cable assembly services in the areas of green energy, industrial applications, medical health, autos and communications. Sinbon has multiple manufacturing sites spanning Taiwan, China, EU, and the US. It has a large and diverse customer portfolio, with more than 4,500 customers and the largest one accounting for less than 6% of total sales.
Investment strategy
We rate Sinbon as Buy. We expect Sinbon's diversified product portfolio along with positive mix shift would help drive stable sales growth and margin expansion. ROE will also remain on an upward trend, on our analysis, while a solid cash yield could help cushion share price volatility.
Valuation
Our TP for Sinbon is NT$370. We value Sinbon on PE to capture the company's earnings growth prospects. We set our target PE at 23x, which we set at a 20% premium to the historical average of 19x since 2018. We believe 23x is justified in view of improving fundamentals with strong momentum of industrials segment, driving a clear margin expansion and solid earnings growth in 2026E. Applying this to our 2Q26-1Q27E EPS forecast, we arrive at our target price of NT$370.
Risks
Key downside risks that could cause Sinbon's share to deviate from our target price include 1) slower-than-expected growth in non-IT/non-consumer applications; 2) Intensified competition; 3) Raw material price hike and labor cost increases; 4) FX volatility; 5) Greater-than-expected impact from the geopolitical conflict.
If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788
Appendix A-1
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）
回補驗證：僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片，非全量驗證。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260605_3023_信邦_citi_sinbon_001.png |
17KB | 真資料圖 | 股價走勢折線圖，Y軸TWD、X軸為月份區間（Jun-Mar跨年度） |
260605_3023_信邦_citi_sinbon_002.png |
97KB | 真資料圖 | 目標價情境圖，含現價NT$329（05 Jun 26）與Bull/Base/Bear三情境目標價（NT$420/370/220），上方標示Upside/Downside百分比，含歷史股價折線 |