PDF 原檔：260605_2317_鴻海_gs_HH_original.pdf
原始內容
Hon Hai (2317.TW): May rev +40% YoY; AI servers remains key growth driver; Buy (on CL)
Hon Hai's May revenues were +40% YoY/+3% MoM to NT$859bn, or 5% higher than our previous estimates. From a MoM perspective, Consumer electronics increased MoM on strong pull-in momentum, followed by Cloud & Networking ( fl at MoM) , then PC segment (slightly decreased MoM post pull-in) and Component & Others (down MoM on high base in Apr). From a YoY perspective, Component & Others delivered YoY growth on shipment increase , Cloud & Networking sustained strong YoY growth, driven by the AI cloud products, PC revenues performed increased YoY on new products growth momentum; Consumer electronics saw signi fi cant growth YoY due to order pull-in momentum. Management expects the 2Q26 performance is tracking well above company's previously anticipated signi fi cant growth , while the company continues to monitor the global political and economic situation. Although 2Q is a traditionally slow season of production transition, management expect revenues from AI racks to sustain growth.
We expect continued growth of the AI server business with market share gain opportunities, along with the upcoming smartphone form factor changes in 2026E to drive Hon Hai's growth ahead. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Exhibit 1: Hon Hai's May revenues +40% YoY, or +3% MoM
Source: Company data
3-month revenues preview: We expect 2Q26E revenues to be +31% YoY/+11% QoQ to NT$2.4 trillion. May continues MoM growth (+3%) o ff Apr's high base, re fl ecting the solid demand of AI server racks despite the slow seasonality of traditional electronics products in 2Q. We expect Jun revenues to grow 22% YoY (or -23% MoM) considering the high base, which is in line with the historical seasonality.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song +852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
We expect continuous shipment growth of AI server racks to support 2Q/ 3Q26E growth ahead.
Exhibit 2: We model Hon Hai's June 2026 revenue to be +22% YoY or -23% MoM Hon Hai's monthly/annual revenue
| Apr 2026 | May 2026E | June 2026E | July 2026E | Aug 2026E | Sep 2026E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 832,098 | 859,409 | 659,861 | 745,642 | 835,120 | 1,377,695 | 2,351,368 | 2,958,457 |
| YoY | 30% | 40% | 22% | 21% | 38% | 65% | 31% | 44% |
| MoM/QoQ | 4% | 3% | -23% | 13% | 12% | 65% | 11% | 26% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 819,812 | 815,456 | ||||||
| Actual vs. GS | 1% | 5% |
Revenue line represents actual results reported by the company.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EV business in May 2026: Hon Hai's EV subsidiary Foxtron (2258.TW, Not Covered) reported May revenues of NT$541mn (vs. Apr-26 / May-25 revenues at NT$490mn / NT$343mn) . Post the announcement of its proposal to acquire Luxgen in December (report), Foxtron has announced its fi rst self-branded vehicle 'Foxtron Bria'. Also, the partnership with Mitsubishi Motors (7211.T, covered by Kota Yuzawa) on passenger cars (read more in our report) and zero emission buses (read more on the company's announcement) suggest incremental growth opportunities for Foxtron which could be positive for Hon Hai.
Exhibit 3: Foxtron's (Hon Hai's EV subsidiary) monthly revenues
Source: Company data
Valuation: Our unchanged 12m TP for Hon Hai of NT$400 is based on 21x 2026E P/E. Our target P/E multiple is derived from peers' average ratio of trading P/E to forward year NI YoY growth and OPM (P/E divided by the sum of NI YoY and OPM). Our target P/E of 21x is above the high end of Hon Hai's historical trading range (high end at 20x), re fl ecting our positive view on Hon Hai's business expansion from the competitive consumer electronics market to AI servers and EVs outsourcing, which should drive pro fi t expansion with diversifying business opportunities for Hon Hai. Maintain Buy (on CL).
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Exhibit 4: Hon Hai peers' 2026E P/E vs. 2026-27E NI YoY
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Hon Hai: P&L summary
| Hon Hai (2317.TW) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTD bn | |||||||||||||||
| P&L | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6,627 | 6,162 | 6,860 | 8,103 | 11,057 | 13,795 | 15,586 | 1,644 | 1,793 | 2,059 | 2,606 | 2,120 | 2,351 | 2,958 | 3,628 |
| COGS | (6,227) | (5,774) | (6,431) | (7,605) | (10,410) | (13,057) | (14,768) | (1,544) | (1,680) | (1,928) | (2,453) | (1,989) | (2,213) | (2,789) | (3,419) |
| Gross profit | 400 | 388 | 429 | 498 | 647 | 738 | 818 | 101 | 114 | 131 | 153 | 131 | 138 | 169 | 209 |
| Operating expense | (226) | (221) | (228) | (239) | (283) | (323) | (352) | (54) | (57) | (60) | (68) | (55) | (68) | (72) | (88) |
| EBITDA | 250 | 251 | 288 | 347 | 465 | 537 | 590 | 70 | 80 | 95 | 102 | 101 | 96 | 123 | 146 |
| D&A | (76) | (84) | (88) | (88) | (101) | (121) | (123) | (24) | (23) | (25) | (16) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) |
| EBIT | 174 | 167 | 201 | 259 | 364 | 416 | 466 | 46 | 57 | 71 | 86 | 76 | 70 | 97 | 121 |
| Net interest income/(expense) | 9 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 1 | (1) | (3) | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Disposal of assets (pre-tax) | 4 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | 1 | (5) | 1 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 13 | (10) | (2) | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Pretax profit | 188 | 192 | 212 | 293 | 379 | 445 | 495 | 59 | 65 | 87 | 82 | 74 | 76 | 103 | 126 |
| Income tax | (36) | (37) | (40) | (78) | (76) | (93) | (104) | (13) | (16) | (21) | (29) | (15) | (15) | (21) | (25) |
| Minorities | (10) | (13) | (19) | (26) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (4) | (5) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| Net income | 141 | 142 | 153 | 189 | 270 | 318 | 357 | 42 | 44 | 58 | 45 | 50 | 52 | 74 | 93 |
| EPS (NTD) | 10.04 | 10.07 | 10.79 | 13.43 | 19.04 | 22.49 | 25.30 | 2.98 | 3.16 | 4.08 | 3.20 | 3.54 | 3.71 | 5.24 | 6.55 |
| DPS (NTD) | 5.22 | 5.31 | 5.70 | 7.15 | 10.13 | 11.97 | 13.47 | ||||||||
| Dividend payout ratio | 52% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | ||||||||
| YoY% growth & margins | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue growth | 11% | -7% | 11% | 18% | 36% | 25% | 13% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 29% | 31% | 44% | 39% |
| EBITDA growth | 11% | 0% | 15% | 20% | 34% | 15% | 10% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 44% | 20% | 29% | 44% |
| EBIT growth | 17% | -4% | 20% | 29% | 40% | 14% | 12% | 27% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 63% | 24% | 38% | 41% |
| Net income growth | 2% | 0% | 7% | 24% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 91% | 27% | 17% | -2% | 19% | 18% | 28% | 105% |
| EPS growth | 1% | 0% | 7% | 24% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 90% | 26% | 16% | 0% | 19% | 17% | 28% | 105% |
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| EBITDA margin | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| EBIT margin | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Hon Hai
Valuation methodology: We are Buy rated on Hon Hai. Our 12-month target price of NT$400 is based on a 21.0x 2026E P/E multiple, which is set in line with peers' PEG&M ratio (i.e. P/E vs. forward year earnings growth and OPM).
Key risks: (1) Slower-than-expected ramp-up of AI servers business; (2) weaker-than-expected EV total solution performance across EV assembly, design, software and semis; (3) slower-than-expected ramp-up of capacity globally; and (4) fi ercer-than-expected competition in consumer electronics EMS business.
Exhibit 5: Hon Hai's 12M forward P/E ratio
Source: Eikon Datastream e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
2317.TW
12m Price Target:
NT$400.00
Price:
NT$284.50
Upside: 40.6%
| Buy CL | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market c ap: NT$4.0tr / $1 28 .1 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$ 3 . 8 tr / $1 22 . 3bn 3m AD T V : NT$1 9 . 5bn / $ 6 1 7 .0 mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : N o | Revenue (NT$ mn) EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 8,103,104.8 | 11,057,372.6 | 13,795,323.3 | 15,585,757.7 |
| Market c ap: NT$4.0tr / $1 28 .1 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$ 3 . 8 tr / $1 22 . 3bn 3m AD T V : NT$1 9 . 5bn / $ 6 1 7 .0 mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : N o | 347,220.9 | 465,463.2 | 536,887.8 | 589,707.0 | |
| Market c ap: NT$4.0tr / $1 28 .1 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$ 3 . 8 tr / $1 22 . 3bn 3m AD T V : NT$1 9 . 5bn / $ 6 1 7 .0 mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : N o | EPS (NT$) | 13.41 | 19.04 | 22.49 | 25.30 |
| P/E (X) | 13.9 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 11.2 | |
| P/B (X) | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.7 | |
| N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) | (0.2) | (1.0) | (0.8) | (0.8) | |
| CROCI (%) | 14.0 | 16.4 | 17.9 | 17.5 | |
| FCF yield (%) | 1.9 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 5.7 | |
| 3/26 | 6/26E | 9/26E | 12/26E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 3.60 | 3.71 | 5.24 | 6.55 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 5 Jun 2026 close.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）
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52KB | 真資料圖 | 折線圖，Y 軸 -40% 至 120%，X 軸 Jan-11 至 May-26，數值上下波動走勢（YoY 成長率類折線圖） |
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31KB | 真資料圖 | 柱狀圖（單位 NT$m），X 軸 2023/08 至 2026/5，各期柱狀高度不一，最末一柱以淺藍色標示（估計值） |