報告_UBS_研華2395_20260717

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_研華2395_20260717_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-20）

原始內容

Advantech Durable growth takes hold

Q226 revenue beat, expect strong earnings results

Advantech reported much stronger-than-expected Q226 revenue, which we think should lead to a strong earnings beat for the quarter. Besides, OPM could beat expectation, driven by successful pass-through of higher input costs to customers and positive operating leverage. At the upcoming analyst meeting on August 5, we expect management to talk positively about its project design-wins although book-to-billings (BB) ratio is unlikely to reach another record high as Advantech accelerated deliveries through worker overtime and improved memory sourcing. We raise our 2026/27E earnings growth estimates to 55%/23% YoY and lift our price target to NT$628 from NT$522. Our 2026/27E estimates are 22-29% above consensus. Buy maintained.

Sustained strong order momentum

Advantech reported Q226 revenue growth of 46.5%, beating UBS/consensus estimates by 24%/21%. We attribute the strong performance to a combination of 10-15% price increases (mainly reflecting higher memory costs), sufficient supply of key components (mainly memory), and strong order momentum. Advantech has increased production through overtime operations in Taiwan and mainland China, capacity expansion in Japan, and increased outsourcing to factories in Malaysia. We think Advantech's BB ratio could decline QoQ in Q226 (vs high at 1.77 at end Q126) considering the strong deliveries in the quarter. However, we do not view this negatively. Instead, we would focus more on project design-win momentum, which serves as a key leading indicator of order backlog over the next six months. We expect semi equipment, medical, and factory automation (robots, cobots) to sustain strong order momentum in H226/2027.

Expect higher OPM on positive operating leverage

We expect Advantech's gross margin to remain broadly stable as it has been able to largely pass higher memory costs on to customers. Looking into H226, cost pressure could broaden beyond memory to include CPU and PCB. However, given the current strength of demand, we believe Advantech could pass through most of these additional costs. For opex, Advantech has historically maintained R&D at 8% of total sales while strictly controlling other expenses. Therefore, given the strong Q2 revenue beat, we think operating margin could expand more than previously expected.

Valuation: price target raised to NT$628.00; reiterate Buy

We raise our 2026-28E earnings by 19-21%, mainly to reflect stronger sales momentum and positive operating leverage. Our PT is lifted to NT$628 from NT$522, based on 27x 2027E PE (unchanged). Advantech's valuation looks attractive at 23x 2027PE, below the average since 2020, while we estimate a 2026-28E earnings CAGR of 32% (+1.6 SD above average). We expect the upcoming analyst meeting and consensus upward revisions to earnings to serve as positive share price catalysts.

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 530.00 on 16-Jul-2026

Advantech - 2395.TW Price

700

Thesis Map UBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and what´s where in this report

500

Pivotal Questions

300

2024

UBS VIEW

EVIDENCE

WHAT´S PRICED IN?

Upside/Downside Spectrum

Company Description

2025

TWD 530.0

16 Jul

765.0

Upside to Downside

2.6 to 1

Upside:

+44%

Q: How can AI technologies accelerate investment into automation?

We think automation investment growth could accelerate as AI technology advances control systems and agentic AI transforms automation into autonomous manufacturing, further improving production efficiency. Moreover, edge-AI is expanding automation applications beyond factories and into industries requiring high levels of data privacy.

Q: Which supply chain subsectors benefit from higher automation investment?

Market research agencies forecast the smart manufacturing (software & hardware) and robot industries to see sales growth of 14-20% during 2025-32F, notably faster than industrial machinery at 7-9%. Among smart manufacturing, these market forecasters expect all three segments (software, hardware and services) to maintain a 15% sales CAGR during 2025-32F, with hardware slightly accelerating from a 14% sales CAGR during 2022-24.

Q: How fast will humanoid robots scale up?

We estimate humanoid robots (link, link) to ramp up to a global population of more than 2m by 2035E and more than 300m by 2050E, implying TAM of US$30-40bn in 2035E and US$1.4-1.7trn by 2050E, for an ecosystem spanning components and OEMs, software and data, production and services.

We think Advantech looks well positioned to benefit from: 1) accelerating investment in automation as a hardware supplier for multinational industrial automation providers, 2) dedicated teams to provide customised automation solutions, and 3) the expansion into AI-powered projects. We forecast Advantech's earnings growth to accelerate via strong order intake and margin expansion from improving sales mix and scale benefits.

Sales BB ratio continues to expand sequentially, up from 1.33 in Q425 to 1.77 in Q126, showcasing robust bookings. The latest order backlog data in May is higher at more than NT$1.30bn, versus NT $1.13bn in March. Design-win project value increased by 2.3x in Q126, compared with Q425. These project wins could turn into order backlog in around six months' time. Advantech also registered accelerated sales growth of 46.5% in Q226, up from 17.5% in Q126, showing strong order momentum and project delivery.

Advantech is now trading at 23x 2027E PE, below the average since 2020, while we estimate its 2026-28E earnings CAGR at 32%, +1.6 SD above the average since 2020. We expect sustainable top-line growth to further support earnings growth. We view the August 5 analyst meeting and consensus earnings upward revisions as potential positive share price catalysts.

Source: UBS estimates

Established in 1981 and listed on the Taiex in 1999, Advantech is a world-leading Taiwanese IPC (industrial PC) supplier. Its product offerings involve embedded boards and chassis, industrial computers and controls, and after-sales services with applications spanning manufacturing automation, healthcare, transportation, energy and networking industries. To serve global markets, it has three manufacturing sites in Taiwan, Japan and China and direct subsidiaries in 27 countries.

40

35

30

25

20

15

35.9

31.0

26.1

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

Figure 1: Summary of changes to our earnings estimates

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 2: UBS vs. consensus estimates

Source: Refinitiv, UBS estimates

Figure 3: Advantech's PE (x) band

Source: Refinitiv, UBS estimates

Figure 5: Peer valuation comparison table

Source: Company data, Refinitiv, UBS estimates. *Consensus estimates; others are UBS estimates. Priced as of 16 July 2026.

•- 1 STD

Avg.

• 1STD

Figure 4: Advantech's PB (x) band

Source: Refinitiv, UBS estimates

6.3

5.7

5.0

4.4

2026

-+2STD

Advantech (2395.TW)

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.

Advantech (2395.TW)

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

Company Description

Established in 1981 and listed on the Taiex in 1999, Advantech is a world-leading Taiwanese IPC supplier. Its product offerings involve embedded boards and chassis, industrial computers and controls, and after-sales services with applications spanning manufacturing automation, healthcare, transportation, energy and networking industries. To serve the global market, it has three manufacturing sites in Taiwan, Japan and China and direct subsidiaries in 27 countries.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We base our price target for Advantech on 27x 2027E PE.

Industrial PC sector risks include: slower global economic growth; uncertainty in trade tariff negotiations; higher interest rates that could result in weaker capex investment; readiness and supply chain bottlenecks of IT technology could slow project execution; currency movements; and changes in component pricing that could bring downside to profitability. In our view, key company-specific risks include: 1) slower-than-expected edge-AI product adoption; 2) competition in the non-AI IPC segment, especially in the China market; 3) a rise in component prices; 4) NTD appreciation against the USD; 5) slower macroeconomic growth that could negatively impact overall capex allocation; and 6) demand growth that could attract more new suppliers to join the market, which might intensify competition and possibly bring price pressure.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

Advantech

Required Disclosures

This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 17 July 2026 04:03 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.