PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_南茂8150_20260929_original.pdf
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57KB | 真資料圖 | 股價（黑線）與目標價（藍階梯線）2023/6–2026/9 歷史走勢圖，下方附評等區間色條（Buy/Sell/No Rating） |
原始內容
Fast Take
ChipMOS Technologies
Headline
ChipMOS posted Aug EPS of NT$0.62, accounting fo 49%/46% of UBSe/st eet Q3 EPS.
O r Take
Bette Aug EPS should be d iven by OpM st ength athe than non-op. With Aug sales al eady epo ted t acking 69%/68% of UBS/st eet fo 10+% QoQ g owth, and GM likely imp oving sequentially in Q3, we believe Q3 EPS is t acking above expectations.
Equities
Taiwan
Semiconducto s
12-month rating
12m price target Buy NT$166.00
Price (29 Sep 2026)
NT$104.50
RIC: 8150.TWBBG: 8150 TT
Trading data and key metrics
| 52-wk range | NT$122.50-29.50 |
|---|---|
| Market cap. | NT$73.6b/US$2.31b |
| Shares o/s | 705m (ORD) |
| Free float | 82% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 47,799 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$4,793 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$26.4b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 2.8x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | 0.6x |
EPS (UBS, diluted) (TWD)
| UBS | Cons. | |
|---|---|---|
| 12/26E | 4.50 | 4.82 |
| 12/27E | 6.50 | 6.90 |
| 12/28E | 7.95 | 7.95 |
Jerry Su
Analyst
+886-28-722 7306
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 21,356 | 22,696 | 23,933 | 30,438 | 36,087 | 40,772 | 43,955 | 46,845 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 1,908 | 1,274 | 1,143 | 3,482 | 5,229 | 6,451 | 7,159 | 7,835 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 1,893 | 1,420 | 495 | 3,147 | 4,550 | 5,563 | 6,177 | 6,816 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 2.60 | 1.95 | 0.69 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 7.95 | 8.82 | 9.74 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 2.30 | 1.80 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.97 | 4.41 |
| Net (debt) / cash | (2,558) | 1,121 | (612) | (4,864) | (8,018) | (8,060) | (5,101) | (1,338) |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin % | 8.9 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 11.4 | 14.5 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 16.7 |
| ROIC (EBIT) % | 9.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 12.6 | 15.3 | 16.6 | 17.6 | 19.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 14.6 | 20.8 | 44.9 | 23.2 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield % | 13.1 | 18.1 | 1.8 | (3.4) | (2.1) | 3.0 | 7.8 | 9.4 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 6.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
Sou ce: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Met ics ma ked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an ave age sha e p ice that yea , (E): based on a sha e p ice of NT$ 104.50 on 29-Sep-2026
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 58.9% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 1.2% |
| Forecast stock return | 60.0% |
| Market return assumption | 6. % |
| Forecast excess return | 5 .8% |
Company Description
ChipMOS is a semiconducto back-end supplie with 45-50% of its sales f om display d ive IC (~40% f om TV and 40% f om sma tphone and IT and 20% f om automotive), 35-40% f om memo y (~40% DRAM, ~40% f om specialty flash and ~20% f om mainst eam NAND) and 10-15% f om logic (TV SoC) and mixed signal IC (MEMS, PMIC).
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We have a Buy ating and a NT$166 p ice ta get, based on 23x ave age 2027-28E PE (vs. its no malized 5-27x PE ange). Ou ta get multiple is in line with the ave age of memo y and d ive IC OSAT pee s.Downside isks include a weake -than-expected tech end-ma ket demand ecove y, g owing China competition, failu e to dive sify into the SiPh/optical component bumping business and a slowe amp of its logic testing business.