PDF 原檔：報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-04）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_001.png |
117KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 3：主要客戶 300mm 矽晶圓庫存趨勢（14/1Q–26/2Q），柱狀為 Input volume／Purchase volume／Customer inventory volume，折線為 Turnover days；23/1Q 起客戶庫存量明顯墊高、週轉天數同步上升（來源 SUMCO） |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_002.png |
223KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4：300mm 矽晶圓庫存趨勢，上圖為主要客戶整體／邏輯應用（標題被裁切），下圖標題為「Major Customers' Memory Applications」；同為 Input／Purchase／Customer inventory 柱狀加 Turnover days 折線，14/1Q–26/2Q，庫存自 23/1Q 起墊高（來源 SUMCO） |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_003.png |
40.5KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 7：GlobalWafers 一年遠期 P/E 走勢（2014–2025），標示 Average 18x、+1 SD 26x、+2 SD 35x、-1 SD 10x |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_007.png |
51.3KB | 真資料圖 | 股價（藍線）與歷史目標價（紅色虛線階梯）圖，2023-11 至 2026-11，目標價階梯標示 500／550／500／430／375／608／588／750／900；標的與價位走勢與 GWC 相符（此圖原在 trimmed 的免責聲明段，未被正文引用） |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_008.png |
53.9KB | 真資料圖 | 另一檔股票的股價與目標價階梯圖（2023-11 至 2026-11，目標價由約 58.75 逐階升至 1,200），圖上未標公司名，價位區間與 GWC 不符，標的不明，不採用 |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_004.png |
25.9KB | 文字卡／小圖 | Risk Reward 圖（<40KB，未逐張細驗） |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_005.png |
16.5KB | 文字卡／小圖 | Risk Reward 區塊小圖（<40KB，未逐張細驗） |
報告_MS_環球晶6488_20261103_006.png |
31.3KB | 文字卡／小圖 | MS Estimates vs. Consensus 圖（<40KB，未逐張細驗） |
原始內容
M Idea November 3, 2026 05:11 PM GMT
GlobalWafers Co Ltd | Asia Pacific
Some Customers Push Back on 2027 Price Hikes; Stay EW
| What's Changed GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$900.00 | NT$770.00 |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Modest shortfall Modest revision lower
Impact to our t esis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-mont
consensus EPS
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Lucas Wang Equity Analyst Lucas Wang@morganstanley com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie Chan@morganstanley com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel Yen@morganstanley com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy Dai@morganstanley com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Henry Zhao Equity Analyst Henry Zhao@morganstanley com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan Jia@morganstanley com | +852 3963-2287 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO 6488 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Equal weight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$770.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 12 |
| S r price, close (Nov 3, 2026) | NT$685.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$1,600.00-333.00 |
| S out, dil, curr (mn) | 437 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$299,516 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$339,472 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$5,201 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 2/25 | 2/26e | 2/27e | 2/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 15.28 | 20.44 | 30.33 | 43.79 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 23.68 | 35.56 | 51.09 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 14.68 | 20.70 | 32.27 | 51.32 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 60,598 | 59,993 | 81,469106,104 | |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 17,585 | 16,217 | 28,280 | 39,991 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 7,312 | 9,775 | 14,507 | 20,946 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 26.6 | 33.5 | 22.6 | 15.6 |
| P/BV | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| RNOA (%) | 6.2 | 3.6 | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| ROE (%) | 8.0 | 10.5 | 15.0 | 19.9 |
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc
We believe 2027 price increases could be more modest than the bull camp e pects. Stay EW.
Key Takeaways
- 3Q26 results missed both MSe and consensus given the July fire at the Novara, Italy facility, hich disrupted 8-inch afer production and related SOI output.
- GWC announced a proposed US$500mn, 10-year convertible bond investment from Micron, supporting long-term afer supply and strategic US capacity development.
- Pricing should improve from 2027 as ne contracts and spot business replace older LTAs, although negotiations ill vary by customer.
2027 price hike should be case by case amid push back from some customers:
Management said 2027 pricing negotiations could be mixed across customers even though capacity is nearly fully loaded. Some need more capacity in 4Q26 and are illing to pay the ne post-hike afer price. Ho ever, the company still faces push back from some customers, likely tied to their inventories. Our recent checks suggest Tier 1 foundry LTA afer pricing into 2027 could be less than 10%, belo the buyside bogey of a 25-30% blended hike. Ho ever, for some tier 2 customers, the price hike could indeed be around 25-30%. We believe the average like-to-like LTA afer price could only increase by 15-20% in 2027. Stay EW.
SOI demand exceeds expectation: The company said 12-inch SOI demand already exceeds its current expansion plan. The priority is to debottleneck and ramp existing Missouri capacity. More than half of the ne ly installed tools have qualified for volume production, and RF SOI and silicon-photonics products have entered volume production.
Q26 could be relatively muted: We expect 4Q26 to be relatively muted since afer pricing remains tied to older agreements, existing capacity is fully loaded, and ne capacity depreciation ould continue to eigh on margin.
With this report, Lucas Wang assumes coverage of GlobalWafers.
M Idea
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3 | 20.8 | 11.8 | 8.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Div yld (%) | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (11.1) | 0.9 | 2.9 | 5.3 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | 42.8 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 21.1 |
Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
** = Based on consensus met odology
e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Idea
Still Better Supply/Demand Dynamics into 2027-28e
3Q26 earnings and Q26 outlook review: 3Q26 results missed both our and Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimates given the July fire at the Novara, Italy facility, hich disrupted 8-inch afer production and related SOI output. We expect 4Q26 to be relatively muted since afer pricing remains tied to older agreements, existing capacity is fully loaded and ne capacity depreciation ould continue to eigh on margin. We had expected 4Q26 gross margin to be around 25-26%, but e have no reduced that to 2223%.
Exhibit 1: GWC: 3Q26 earnings review
| (NT$ mn) | 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - Q/Q | 3Q26 - Y/Y | 3Q26 - MS Est. | 3Q26 - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | |||||
| Revenue | 14,871 | -2.3% | 2.6% | 16,172 | 15,957 |
| Opex | (1,516) | -11.7% | 5.8% | (1,415) | (1,573) |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.13 | -60.4% | -24.0% | 5.33 | 4.50 |
| Ratios | |||||
| GM (%) | 20.0% | -67bps | 160bps | 23.2% | 21.5% |
| Opex (%) | 10.2% | -110bps | 31bps | 8.8% | 9.9% |
| OPM (%) | 9.8% | 43bps | 129bps | 14.5% | 11.7% |
Source: Company Data, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 2: GWC: 4Q26 outlook review
| (NT$ mn) | 4Q26 - Guidance | 4Q26 - MS Est. | 4Q26 - Q/Q | 4Q26 - Y/Y | 4Q26 - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | |||||
| Revenue | Should see sequential growth | 17,399 | 17.0% | 20.0% | 17,179 |
| Opex | (1,453) | -4.1% | 7.9% | (1,570) | |
| EPS (NT$) | 6.49 | 107.3% | 40.7% | 5.45 | |
| Ratios | |||||
| GM (%) | 25.7% | 574bps | 2bps | 22.9% | |
| Opex (%) | 8.4% | -184bps | -94bps | 9.1% | |
| OPM (%) | 17.4% | 758bps | 96bps | 13.7% |
Source: Company Data, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Micron/GWC deal marks a new milestone for GWC
Micron Technology and GlobalWafers announced a deeper strategic partnership on July 9, 2026, centered on a 10-year supply agreement and US$500mn of strategic financing from Micron to support GlobalWafers' ne 12-inch silicon afer facility in Sherman, Texas. On its latest earnings call, GWC board proposed executing that financing as up to US$500 million of 10-year privately placed convertible bonds, ith Micron as the sole subscriber, carrying a 0.5% coupon. The agreement secures significant ra silicon afer capacity for Micron's long-term manufacturing plans, ith the financing linked to the buildout of GlobalWafers America's (GWA) Sherman facility.
GlobalWafers Chair oman Doris Hsu described the agreement as the largest and longest contract in the company's history. The t o companies ill also collaborate on nextgeneration afer technologies and process innovation. The Sherman plant is notable as the only US-based source of advanced 12-inch afers.
The agreement forms part of Micron's broader US$3bn commitment to strengthen the US semiconductor supply chain and accompanies its target of manufacturing 40% of its DRAM output domestically by the mid-2030s. We believe GWC is ell positioned to M Idea support ongoing foundry and memory capacity expansion in the US, not only for Micron but also for TSMC and Samsung, hich are already GWC's t o largest customers. We currently assume Micron/GWC LTA pricing could be US$70-80 on average for the polished afer (10-20% above current LTA pricing after discounts), reflecting the higher US cost base. This ould be broadly in line ith, or slightly above, LTAs signed in 2021-22.
Current inventory levels remain ig er t an during t e 2021-22 upcycle w en existing LTAs were signed
Notably, customer inventories of 12-inch afers remain ell above levels seen during the previous industry upcycle. According to SUMCO's inventory trend data (see Exhibit 3), inventory volumes and turnover days ere near the lo est levels of the 2014-26 period during 2021-22, reflecting a lean and highly utilized supply chain. By contrast, the current cycle presents the opposite picture: shipment volumes are approaching record highs, but customer inventories are also near record levels, ith inventory days and absolute inventory exceeding those seen even at the peak of the 2021-22 upcycle.
This backdrop differs meaningfully from the 2021-22 environment and, in our vie , supports a more moderate and delayed pricing recovery in 2027 rather than a repeat of the broad-based increases seen during the prior cycle. In 2021-22, afer makers held significant pricing leverage as customer inventories sat near cycle lo s despite record shipment volumes. Fabs consumed nearly all purchased afers ith minimal inventory buffers, creating a tight supply environment that enabled afer manufacturers to implement meaningful price increases across 12-inch afers.
While shipment volumes currently remain elevated, customers also hold substantial inventory. This provides a buffer against demand gro th and moderate supply disruptions, reducing the urgency to secure incremental afer supply. Historically, this dynamic eakens suppliers' pricing po er. Until inventories normalize meaningfully, afer makers are likely to have less pricing leverage than they did entering the 2021-22 upcycle. Our vie is that 2027 LTA negotiations ill focus primarily on removing current discounts rather than driving nominal price increases. We broadly expect 2027 industry LTA pricing increases of 15-20% in average, ith Tier 2 customers' afer price to be raised 25-30% but Tier 1 customers ould only see 5-15%.
Exhibit 3: Customer 12-inch wafer inventory trend (August 6, 2026)
- 300 mm Wafer Inventory Trend for Major Customers
Source: Sumco M Idea Exhibit 4: Customer 12-inch wafer inventory trend (Logic vs memory; August 6, 2026)
- 300 mm Wafer Inventory Trend for Major Customers' Logic Applications
Source: Sumco M Idea
Estimate Revisions
We cut our EPS estimates by 1 %, 15% and 1 % for 2026-28, respectively. The reductions in our forecasts primarily reflect lo er afer price hike to Tier 1 customers and the margin pressure from overseas capacity ramp. Ho ever, e also lo er our tax rate assumption from 25% to 20% to reflect the subsidy from the US government.
Exhibit 5: GlobalWafers: Earnings estimate revisions
| (NT$ mn) | New 2026e | Old 2026e | Diff.% | New 2027e | Old 2027e | Diff.% | New 2028e | Old 2028e | Diff.% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 59,993 | 62,770 | -4% | 81,469 | 90,337 | -10% | 106,104 | 113,424 | -6% |
| Gross profit | 12,574 | 14,282 | -12% | 22,235 | 26,102 | -15% | 31,331 | 36,821 | -15% |
| Operating profit | 6,351 | 8,258 | -23% | 15,978 | 19,486 | -18% | 24,037 | 29,394 | -18% |
| Pretax income | 11,866 | 14,466 | -18% | 18,134 | 22,683 | -20% | 26,182 | 32,582 | -20% |
| Net income | 9,775 | 11,326 | -14% | 14,507 | 17,012 | -15% | 20,946 | 24,437 | -14% |
| EPS for Consensus | 20.44 | 23.68 | -14% | 30.33 | 35.56 | -15% | 43.79 | 51.09 | -14% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 21.0% | 22.8% | 27.3% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 32.5% | |||
| Operating margin | 10.6% | 13.2% | 19.6% | 21.6% | 22.7% | 25.9% | |||
| Pretax margin | 19.8% | 23.0% | 22.3% | 25.1% | 24.7% | 28.7% | |||
| Net margin | 16.3% | 18.0% | 17.8% | 18.8% | 19.7% | 21.5% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates M Idea
Valuation Methodology
We lower our price target from NT$900 to NT$770: The price target change mostly reflects our earnings forecast change over 2026-28. All of of key assumptions in our DCF model are unchanged, including a cost of equity of 11% (beta of 1.5, risk premium of 6% and risk-free rate of 2%), an intermediate gro th rate of 13% and a terminal gro th rate of 4%.
Our bull- and bear-case values are also lo ered, from NT$1,140.00 to NT$975.00 and NT $450.00 to NT$385.00, respectively, implying P/Es of 32x and 13x 2027e.
Exhibit 6: GWC: Residual income model
| (NT$ mn) | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | 2029e | 2030e | 2031e | 2032e | 2033e | 2034e | 2035e | 2036e | 2037e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Equity | 96,433 | 105,076 | 117,317 | 123,369 | 130,208 | 137,936 | 146,668 | 156,536 | 167,686 | 180,286 | 194,524 | 210,613 |
| Net Profit | 9,775 | 14,507 | 20,946 | 23,668 | 26,745 | 30,222 | 34,151 | 38,591 | 43,608 | 49,277 | 55,683 | 62,921 |
| ROAE | 10.3% | 14.4% | 18.8% | 19.7% | 21.1% | 22.5% | 24.0% | 25.5% | 26.9% | 28.3% | 29.7% | 31.1% |
| Residual Income | (649) | 3,278 | 8,234 | 10,168 | 12,453 | 15,028 | 17,930 | 21,201 | 24,889 | 29,047 | 33,736 | 39,025 |
| Spread | -0.7% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 18.7% | 20.1% |
| Ending Equity Capital | 96,433 | |||||||||||
| PV of Forecast Period | 88,028 | |||||||||||
| PV of Continuing Value | 183,960 | |||||||||||
| Equity Value | 368,421 | |||||||||||
| No. of Shares | 478 | |||||||||||
| Projected Price (NT$) | 770 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates M Idea
Exhibit 7: GlobalWafers: One-year forward P/E chart
Quarterly Financials
Exhibit 8: GlobalWafers: Quarterly financials
| (NT$ mn) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26e | 4Q26e | 1Q27e | 2Q27e | 3Q27e | 4Q27e | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenues | 13,985 | 15,214 | 14,871 | 15,923 | 18,122 | 20,368 | 21,061 | 21,918 | 62,626 | 60,598 | 59,993 | 81,469 | 106,104 |
| Sequential Change | -3.6% | 8.8% | -2.3% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | |||||
| Change vs Year Ago | -10.3% | -5.0% | 2.6% | 9.8% | 29.6% | 33.9% | 41.6% | 37.6% | -11.4% | -3.2% | -1.0% | 35.8% | 30.2% |
| Cost of Sales | (11,071) | (12,074) | (11,901) | (12,373) | (13,500) | (14,773) | (15,175) | (15,786) | (42,823) | (45,974) | (47,419) | (59,234) | (74,773) |
| Gross Profit | 2,914 | 3,140 | 2,970 | 3,550 | 4,622 | 5,595 | 5,886 | 6,132 | 19,804 | 14,624 | 12,574 | 22,235 | 31,331 |
| Gross Margin | 20.8% | 20.6% | 20.0% | 22.3% | 25.5% | 27.5% | 27.9% | 28.0% | 31.6% | 24.1% | 21.0% | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| Total Opex | (1,438) | (1,718) | (1,516) | (1,551) | (1,506) | (1,562) | (1,584) | (1,605) | (5,685) | (5,987) | (6,223) | (6,256) | (7,295) |
| Percent of Revenues | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% |
| R&D | (471) | (526) | (531) | (536) | (550) | (560) | (565) | (570) | (2,363) | (2,218) | (2,065) | (2,245) | (2,740) |
| Percent of Revenues | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Sales and Marketing | (375) | (438) | (428) | (458) | (326) | (367) | (379) 1.8% | (395) | (1,352) | (1,600) | (1,700) | (1,466) | (1,910) |
| Percent of Revenues | 2.7% (592) | 2.9% (753) | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% (640) | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | |
| General and Admin | (557) | (557) | (630) | (635) | (640) | (1,970) | (2,169) | (2,458) | (2,545) | (2,645) 2.5% | |||
| Percent of Revenues | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | |
| Operating Income | 1,475 | 1,423 | 1,454 | 1,999 | 3,116 | 4,033 | 4,302 | 4,528 | 14,118 | 8,636 | 6,351 | 15,978 | 24,037 |
| Percent of Revenues | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 19.8% | 20.4% | 20.7% | 22.5% | 14.3% | 10.6% 5,514 | 19.6% | 22.7% |
| Total Non-operating Income(Loss) | 871 | 3,162 | 236 | 1,245 | 559 | 528 | 528 | 540 | (1,690) | 880 | 2,156 | 2,145 | |
| Profit Before Taxes Percent of Revenues | 2,347 16.8% | 4,585 | 1,690 11.4% | 3,244 20.4% | 3,675 20.3% | 4,561 | 4,830 22.9% | 5,068 | 12,429 19.8% | 9,516 | 11,866 | 18,134 | 26,182 |
| 30.1% | 22.4% | 23.1% | 15.7% | 19.8% | 22.3% | 24.7% | |||||||
| Change vs Year Ago Taxes | 10.0% (451) | 100.3% (806) | -22.7% (185) | 11.6% (649) | 56.6% (735) | -0.5% (912) 20.0% | 185.8% (966) 20.0% | 56.2% (1,014) 20.0% | (2,590) 20.8% | (2,205) 23.2% | (2,090) 17.6% 9,775 | (3,627) 20.0% | (5,236) 20.0% |
| Tax Rate | 19.2% 1,896 | 17.6% 3,779 | 10.9% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 3,649 | 3,864 18.3% | 4,054 | 9,839 | 7,312 | 14,507 | 20,946 | |
| Net Income, Cont Ops Percent of | 2,595 | 2,940 | 15.7% | ||||||||||
| Revenues | 13.6% | 24.8% | 1,505 10.1% | 16.3% | 16.2% | 17.9% | 18.5% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 19.7% | ||
| Minority Interest | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 7 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Reported Income (TW GAAP) | 1,896 | 3,779 | 1,505 | 2,595 | 2,940 | 3,649 | 3,864 | 4,054 | 9,846 | 7,312 | 9,775 | 14,507 | 20,946 |
| Percent of Revenues | 13.6% | 24.8% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 16.2% | 17.9% | 18.3% | 18.5% | 15.7% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 19.7% |
| Change vs Year Ago | 30.2% | 124.7% | -23.6% | 17.7% | 55.1% | -3.4% | 156.7% | 56.2% | -50.2% | -25.7% | 33.7% | 48.4% | 44.4% |
| Reported Diluted EPS (NT$, TW GAAP) | 3.96 | 7.90 | 3.15 | 5.43 | 6.15 | 7.63 | 8.08 | 8.48 | 21.14 | 15.28 | 20.44 | 30.33 | 43.79 |
| Reported Basic EPS (NT$, GAAP) | 3.97 | 7.90 | 3.15 | 5.43 | 6.15 | 7.63 | 8.08 | 8.48 | 21.06 | 15.29 | 20.45 | ||
| 30.34 | 43.81 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates M Idea
Risk Reward - GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) Risk Reward - GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO)
2027 price hike a bit mixed; stay EW
NT$770.00 PRICE TARGET
Base-case, residual income model. We assume a cost of equity of 11.0% (risk-free rate of 2.0%, beta of 1.5 and equity risk premium of 6.0%), intermediate-term growth rate of 13% and terminal growth rate of 4.0%.
NT$1,140.00
◆
Mean
Consensus Price Target Distribution
NT$473.00
NT$1,800.00
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
RISK REWARD CHART
Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS
- ▪The 2H26 pricing recovery, improving LTA fulfillment and compound semiconductor progress are constructive.
▪However, we believe much of this is
increasingly reflected in expectations.
- ▪At the same time, higher production costs and new capacity ramp up could limit the pace of margin recovery.
- ▪With pricing upside back-end-loaded and cost pressure still visible, we see a more balanced set-up from here.
Risk Reward Themes
Secular Growth:
Positive
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
32x 2027e EPS
Semiconductor industry recovers faster than expected. Pure foundry players' utilization rates rebound to 100%, and memory players start to pull in more raw wafers. GWC's total revenue CAGR picks up to >30% in 2025-28 vs. 8% in 2021-23. Gross margin recovers to over 40% vs. 37.4% in 2023.
25x 2027e EPS
Semiconductor industry recovers from a down-cycle. Pure foundry and memory players start to see recovery in utilization rate, while both spot price and LTA amount also increase gradually. GWC's total revenue CAGR rises to >15% in 2025-28 vs. 8% in 2021-23. Gross margin stays above 25%.
13x 2027e EPS
Semiconductor industry recovers more slowly than expected during this downcycle. Pure foundry players start to breach LTAs and memory players start to cut more raw wafer orders. GWC's total revenue CAGR slows to 0% in 2025-28 vs. 8% in 2021-23. Gross margin declines to <20% vs. 37.4% in 2023.
NT$385.00
NT$975.00
Morgan Stanley Estimates
MS PT
NT$770.00
M Idea
Risk Reward - GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers | Dec 2025 | Dec 2026e | Dec 2027e | Dec 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Wafer Shipment (NT$, 000s) | 32,501 | 32,005 | 34,741 | 32,035 |
| GWC Utilization Rate (%) | 60.1 | 56.8 | 59.5 | 60.4 |
| Blended ASP Per Wafer (NT$) | 60 | 60 | 76 | 61 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- Monthly sales inflection
- Stronger outlooks from key customers
- Extension of LTA pricing or shipments by GWC or peers
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
MS ALPHA MODELS
| 5/5 | 3 Month |
|---|---|
| MOST | Horizon |
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- Margins improve as loosening competition boosts overall wafer ASP.
- Wafer supply remains stable or even goes into shortage amid stronger-than-expected wafer demand.
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- Global semiconductor growth slows again, triggering less wafer demand.
- Margins erode as rising competition lowers overall wafer ASP.
- Global wafer supply rises unexpectedly from new projects.
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
| Inst. Owners, % Active | 80.9% |
|---|---|
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Idea
Financial Summary
| Income Statement, 2024-2028e, - (NT$ mn) | Year End Dec - 2024 | Year End Dec - 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | Balance sheet - (NT$ mn) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | 62,626 | 60,598 | 59,993 | 81,469 | 106,104 | Assets | |||||
| YoY Growth | -11.4% | -3.2% | -1.0% | 35.8% | 30.2% | Cash & Equivalents | 38,929 | 19,484 | 34,094 | 77,648 | 126,457 |
| Less: COGS | (42,823) | (45,974) | (47,419) | (59,234) | (74,773) | Marketable Security A/R & N/R | 29 10,265 | 1 10,113 | 2 11,039 | 2 15,196 | 2 20,139 |
| Variable costs | (35,056) | (37,362) | (37,929) | (47,395) | (59,418) | Inventories | 11,238 | 10,399 | 12,313 | 15,709 | 20,437 |
| Depreciation & amort | (7,766) | (8,612) | (9,490) | (11,839) | (15,354) | Other Current Asset | 20,030 | 46,632 | 36,046 | 36,046 | 36,046 |
| Gross profit | 19,804 | 14,624 | 12,574 | 22,235 | 31,331 | Total current assets | 81,349 | 87,237 | 94,134 | 145,241 | 203,721 |
| YoY Growth | -25.1% | -26.2% | -14.0% | 76.8% | 40.9% | LT Investment | 14,280 | 14,811 | 20,284 | 20,284 | 20,284 |
| % margin | 31.6% | 24.1% | 21.0% | 27.3% | 29.5% | Total Fixed Assets | 119,074 | 107,241 | 116,046 | 114,559 | 109,773 |
| Operating Expenses: | (5,685) | (5,987) | (6,223) | (6,256) | (7,295) | Total Other Assets Total Assets | 9,877 224,581 | 9,054 218,343 | 8,161 238,624 | 8,393 288,477 | 8,625 342,403 |
| R&D | (2,363) | (2,218) | (2,065) | (2,245) | (2,740) | ||||||
| Sales and Marketing | (1,352) | (1,600) | (1,700) | (1,466) | (1,910) | ||||||
| General and Admin | (1,970) | (2,169) | (2,458) | (2,545) | (2,645) | A/P & N/P | 5,371 | 4,161 | 4,388 | 5,598 | 7,283 |
| Operating Profit | 14,118 | 8,636 | 6,351 | 15,978 | 24,037 | Accrued Expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| YoY Growth | -29.6% | -38.8% | -26.5% | 151.6% | 50.4% | Other Payable | 4,650 | 3,613 | 6,055 | 6,055 | 6,055 |
| % margin | 22.5% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 19.6% | 22.7% | Total Current Liab. | 65,065 | 54,109 | 63,984 | 65,194 | 66,879 |
| (1,690) | L-T Liabilities | 37,678 | 43,244 | 53,188 | 93,188 | 133,188 | |||||
| Total Non-op | 880 | 5,514 | 2,156 | 2,145 | Total Other L-T Liab | 30,810 | 27,695 | 25,019 | 25,019 | 25,019 | |
| Total Liabilities | 133,553 | 125,048 | 142,191 | 183,401 | 225,086 | ||||||
| Pretax Profit | 12,429 | 9,516 | 11,866 24.7% | 18,134 52.8% | 26,182 44.4% | Common Stock Preferred Stock | 4,781 | 4,781 | 4,781 | 4,781 44,764 | 4,781 44,764 |
| YoY Growth % margin | -53.1% 19.8% | -23.4% 15.7% | 19.8% | 22.3% | 24.7% | Capital Reserve Retained earnings Treasury Stock | 45,720 40,530 | 44,764 43,753 | 44,764 46,892 | 55,534 0 | 67,775 0 |
| Tax | (2,590) | (2,205) | (2,090) | (3,627) | (5,236) | Total Equity | 0 91,028 | 0 93,295 | 0 96,433 | 105,076 | 117,317 |
| Reported Net Income | 9,846 | 7,312 | 9,775 | 14,507 | 20,946 | ||||||
| EPS (NT$) | 21.14 | 30.33 | 43.79 | Cash Flow Statement | 2028e | ||||||
| Key Ratios | 2024 | 15.28 | 20.44 | 2027e | 2028e | (NT$ mn) Net Income | 2024 9,846 8,069 | 2025 7,312 8,949 | 2026e 9,775 9,866 | 2027e 14,507 12,301 | 20,946 15,954 |
| Return (%) ROAA | 4.5% | 2025 | 2026e | 5.0% | 6.6% | Depreciation Net Investment Losses (Gains) Others | (49) | 48 | 17 | 52 (6,342) | 52 |
| ROAE | 2.8% | 3.6% | 13.7% | 18.8% | Cash Flow-Operating | (2,825) 15,041 | (3,564) 12,745 | (8,570) | (7,987) 28,965 | ||
| 7.3% 38.6% | 9.5% | 11,088 | |||||||||
| OP. ATO | 11.3% 51.1% | 38.1% | 50.2% | 64.0% | 20,519 | ||||||
| Gearing (x) Net Debt/ Equity | (0.0x) | 0.3x | 0.2x | (Purchase) of FA Sale of Fix Asset (Purchase)L-T Inv. | (48,319) 380 0 | (33,497) 86 0 | (19,117) 37 | (10,867) 0 | (11,220) 0 | ||
| Current Ratio Quick Ratio | 1.3x | 1.6x | 1.5x | 2.2x | 2.2x | 0 | 0 | 0 0 | |||
| 0.8x | 0.5x | 0.7x | 0.1x | 0.1x 3.0x | Sale of L-T Inv. | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Operating Cycle | Sale(Pur.)S-T Inv. | (6,846) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 1.4x | Cash Flow-Investing | (29,620) | (106) (34,049) | (7) (8,049) | 0 (11,099) | (11,452) | |||||
| AR/NR Turnover (days) Inventory Turnover (days) | 60 91 40 | 79 110 | 85 112 | 68 98 | 60 87 31 | Inc(Dec)-S-T Debt Dividend Paid | 8,222 (8,748) | (3,977) (5,259) | 651 | 0 (5,865) | 0 (8,704) |
| AP Turnover (days) Cash Conversion (days) | 111 | 42 147 | 41 156 | 35 | Dir.&Emp.Bonus Proceed from New | 0 21,891 | 0 0 | (5,343) 0 | 0 | 0 0 | |
| 131 | 116 | Issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Dec/Inc-TreasureSt | 0 | ||||||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||
| Others | 4,375 | ||||||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||
| Estimates | Cash Flow-Financing | 25,740 | 10,540 1,303 | 0 16,093 11,401 | 40,000 | 40,000 31,296 | |||||
| e = Morgan Stanley Research | Stanley | 34,135 | 48,809 77,648 | ||||||||
| Source: Company Data, | Change in Cash Net cash/(debt), b/f | 12,765 26,165 | (19,445) 38,929 | 14,610 19,484 | 43,555 | ||||||
| Morgan | Research | ||||||||||
| 34,094 77,648 | 126,457 | ||||||||||
| 19,484 | 34,094 | ||||||||||
| Net cash/(debt), c/f | 38,929 |
M Idea
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Micron Technology Inc. (MU.O)
30x through-cycle earnings of US $40.00, a premium to history reflecting ne opportunities in AI, in-line ith broader semis.
Risks to Upside
- n Customers continue to demonstrate an appetite to take on inventory around macroeconomic uncertainty
- n Additional afer intensity of HBM further improves overall supply and demand
- nMIcron's HBM share surpasses expectations
Risks to Downside
- n Pricing can turn quickly; a falter in end demand ith inventories elevated could lead to a s ift price reduction
- n HBM demand falters and competition intensifies, pressuring pricing
M Idea
Risk Reward Reference links
- Vie explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- Vie descriptions of Risk Re ards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
Vie explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
Vie explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- Vie explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Idea
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Semiconductors
M Idea M Idea Stock Ratings are subject to change Please see latest research for each company
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (11/03/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Chan | ||
| Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co (8086.TWO) | U (07/14/2025) | NT$105.50 |
| Alc ip Tec nologies Ltd (3661.TW) | O (05/14/2021) | NT$3,140.00 |
| ASE Tec nology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW) | O (09/15/2024) | NT$616.00 |
| Cambricon Tec nology Corporation (688256.SS) | O (04/27/2026) | Rmb767.93 |
| CXMT Corp (688825.SS) | O (08/26/2026) | Rmb38.80 |
| Global Unic ip Corp (3443.TW) | O (06/24/2026) | NT$6,795.00 |
| GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) | E (05/19/2026) | NT$685.00 |
| Gudeng Precision (3680.TWO) | O (11/25/2025) | NT$440.50 |
| Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) | E (03/12/2026) | HK$59.35 |
| Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (9903.HK) | O (04/27/2026) | HK$56.35 |
| MediaTek (2454.TW) | O (11/28/2025) | NT$3,675.00 |
| MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802.SS) | U (11/02/2026) | Rmb415.15 |
| Nanya Tec nology Corp. (2408.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$411.00 |
| P ison Electronics Corp (8299.TWO) | E (02/25/2026) | NT$1,690.00 |
| SG Micro Corp. (300661.SZ) | E (11/03/2025) | Rmb75.00 |
| Silergy Corp. (6415.TW) | U (05/19/2026) | NT$472.50 |
| SMIC (0981.HK) | O (10/21/2025) | HK$42.62 |
| TSMC (2330.TW) | O (02/07/2022) | NT$2,295.00 |
| UMC (2303.TW) | O (05/19/2026) | NT$103.00 |
| Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347.TWO) | U (10/30/2026) | NT$134.00 |
| WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO) | O (10/29/2026) | NT$530.00 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA | ||
| ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK) | O (07/24/2025) | HK$101.70 |
| C ina Resources Microelectronics Limited (688396.SS) | U (03/02/2026) | Rmb46.71 |
| Empyrean Tec nology Co Ltd (301269.SZ) | O (11/02/2026) | Rmb88.66 |
| Hangz ou Silan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (600460.SS) | U (08/25/2025) | Rmb22.39 |
| Hygon Information Tec nology Co., Ltd. (688041.SS) | O (07/03/2026) | Rmb170.00 |
| Innoscience (2577.HK) | E (10/13/2025) | HK$25.30 |
| JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS) | O (09/16/2026) | Rmb47.04 |
| S ang ai Fudan Microelectronics (1385.HK) | O (03/07/2025) | HK$21.10 |
| SICC Co Ltd (688234.SS) | O (03/20/2026) | Rmb66.52 |
| SJ Semiconductor Corp (688820.SS) | E (09/16/2026) | Rmb72.70 |
| StarPower Semiconductor Ltd (603290.SS) | U (10/31/2026) | Rmb66.30 |
| Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (002049.SZ) | U (01/10/2023) | Rmb48.57 |
| Universal Scientific Ind. (S ang ai) (601231.SS) | O (11/05/2025) | Rmb17.10 |
| Yangjie Tec nology (300373.SZ) | O (06/10/2022) | Rmb71.88 |
| Daniel Yen, CFA | ||
| AP Memory Tec nology Corp (6531.TW) | O (07/11/2025) | NT$712.00 |
| ASMedia Tec nology Inc (5269.TW) | U (10/03/2025) | NT$1,320.00 |
| Aspeed Tec nology (5274.TWO) | O (06/09/2025) | NT$14,730.00 |
| Egis Tec nology Inc (6462.TWO) | E (01/28/2026) | NT$88.90 |
| Elan Microelectronics Corp (2458.TW) | O (10/03/2025) | NT$121.00 |
| eMemory Tec nology Inc (3529.TWO) | O (08/18/2026) | NT$2,160.00 |
| Espressif Systems (688018.SS) | O (05/15/2023) | Rmb136.70 |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc (603986.SS) | O (05/15/2025) | Rmb250.16 |
| Himax Tec nologies Inc (HIMX.O) | E (02/04/2026) | US$10.45 |
| Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW) | O (09/18/2025) | NT$88.30 |
| Montage Tec nology Co Ltd (6809.HK) | O (03/18/2026) | HK$198.30 |
| Montage Tec nology Co Ltd (688008.SS) | O (03/18/2026) | Rmb150.01 |
| Novatek (3034.TW) | U (02/04/2026) | NT$555.00 |
| Nuvoton Tec nology Corporation (4919.TW) | U (11/10/2025) | NT$107.50 |
| Parade Tec nologies Ltd (4966.TWO) | U (10/29/2026) | NT$450.50 |
| Powerc ip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW) | O (10/27/2025) | NT$60.20 |
|---|---|---|
| Realtek Semiconductor (2379.TW) | E (01/30/2026) | NT$756.00 |
| S enz en Goodix Tec nology Co Ltd (603160.SS) | U (07/14/2025) | Rmb58.81 |
| Silicon Motion (SIMO.O) | O (05/06/2024) | US$187.90 |
| Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$146.00 |
| WPG Holdings (3702.TW) | O (03/16/2026) | NT$101.00 |
| WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (3036.TW) | O (01/27/2026) | NT$201.50 |
| Henry Zhao | ||
| ACM Researc Inc (ACMR.O) | O (03/07/2023) | US$44.15 |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (688012.SS) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb205.80 |
| Maxscend Microelectronics Co Ltd (300782.SZ) | U (01/11/2021) | Rmb49.90 |
| NAURA Tec nology Group Co Ltd (002371.SZ) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb486.82 |
| OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group Inc (603501.SS) | E (10/29/2026) | Rmb84.06 |
| Lucas Wang | ||
| AllRing Tec Co. (6187.TWO) | O (09/23/2025) | NT$1,080.00 |
| FOCI Fiber Optic Communications Inc (3363.TWO) | E (10/09/2026) | NT$415.50 |
| Hon Precision (7769.TW) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$4,470.00 |
| King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW) | O (03/03/2023) | NT$253.50 |
| MPI Corporation (6223.TWO) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$4,190.00 |
- Historical prices are not split adjusted