圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-03）
ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；<40KB 者僅簡列，皆為財務／股價／評等類，無架構圖。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101_001.png |
56KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：光寶科 NTM 共識本益比 2020-01 至 2026-09 走勢與平均、±1／±2 標準差線，近期回落至約 17 倍 |
報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101_002.png |
24KB | 真資料圖 | Risk-reward 圖：現價 NT$240.50，Bull NT$490（+103.74%）、Base NT$285（+18.50%）、Bear NT$190（-21.00%） |
報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101_003.png |
16KB | 真資料圖 | 共識評等分布：Overweight 77%、Equal-weight 23%、Underweight 0%，標示 MS 評等 |
報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101_004.png |
35KB | 真資料圖 | MS 預估 vs 共識（FY2026e）：營收 213,909 vs 均值 220,230；EBITDA 33,633 vs 34,667；淨利 25,637 vs 24,908；EPS 11.27 vs 10.90（共識區間 10.30–11.79） |
報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101_005.png |
35KB | 真資料圖 | MS 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023-11 至 2026-10），目標價階梯至最新 315 |
報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101
PDF 原檔：報告_MS_光寶科2301_20261101_original.pdf
原始內容
M Update November 1, 2026 11:42 PM GMT
Lite-On Technology | Asia Pacific
3Q26 Beat on Better Margins
| What's Changed | To | |
|---|---|---|
| Lite-On Technology Price Target | From NT$315.00 | NT$285.00 |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged Modest pside
Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
We think near-term sentiment should be relatively positive.
3Q26 earnings beat on better margins: See Results Summary
4Q26 revenue seen rising QoQ: Management guided for 4Q26 revenue to grow QoQ, driven by power related products in Cloud AIoT. IT/CE should continue to decline YoY, despite strong growth from the LEO (low earth orbit). Optoelectronics should grow by 5-10% YoY. Overall, we estimate revenue will grow by 5% QoQ in 4Q26 and GM will expand further to 26.1% (+0.2ppt QoQ) on a more favorable revenue mix.
2027 expecte to be another soli year: Looking to 2027, management holds an optimistic view, guiding for the Cloud AIoT business to grow by ~70% YoY, Optoelectronics to grow by ~10% YoY and IT/CE business to stay roughly flat YoY. AI remains the major driver, and should benefit from the growing AI deployment and the spec upgrade of power-related products.
800VDC power rack un er qualification: Lite-On sent its 800VDC power rack for qualification in August and will have the next round of integrated system qualification in November, aiming to be MP ready in 1Q27. That said, shipments will depend upon customer deployment plans. Management expects only small volume shipments in 1H27, and said visibility into the adoption in the new generation ASIC/ GPU platform from 2H27 remains to be seen, consistent with the consensus that HVDC is more of a 2028 story at the earliest.
More offerings in the pipeline: Management sent DC/DC module samples to CSP for qualification and expects to see some revenue contribution from 3Q27 (not meaningful, though). Its 120KW CDU has obtained qualification in 3Q26 and should see more volume from 4Q26, with the next generation 220KW CDU currently in the development stage. In September 2026, it invested in a 25% stake in DCX, a liquid cooling solution supplier in Poland, to strengthen its capability in the cooling space .
Stay EW: We think near-term sentiment should be relatively positive given the solid 3Q26 results, especially after the recent share price correction. Looking ahead, we think Lite-On will grow along with the AI capex cycle, driven by its power-related offerings, though execution and progress with new customers is worth monitoring.
Modest revision higher consensus EPS
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Derrick Yang Equity Analyst D rrick.Yang@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang R s arch Associat Vivi.Huang@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.M ng@morganstanl y.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Lite-On Technology (2301 TW, 2301 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Eq al-weight |
|---|---|
| Ind stry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$285.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 1 |
| Shr price, close (Oct 30, 2026) | NT$240.50 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$328.00-13 .50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 2,275 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$547,257 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$483,666 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$5,416 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12 25 | 12 26e | 12 27e | 12 28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 6.64 | 11.27 | 16.47 | 22.57 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 11.07 | 15. 7 | 21.07 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 166.1 | 213. | 2 6.4 | 380.5 |
| EBITDA (NT$ bn) | 1 .7 | 33.6 | 51.2 | 6 .4 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 15.1 | 25.6 | 37.5 | 51.4 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 24.6 | 21.3 | 14.6 | 10.7 |
| P/BV | 4.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| RNOA (%) | 70.7 | 85.5 | 110.7 | 152.6 |
| ROE (%) | 16.6 | 28.5 | 3 .3 | 4 .7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.7 | 14.4 | .3 | 6.8 |
| Div yld (%) | 2.8 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.4 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 1. | 3.5 | 6.7 | 8.6 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (74.1) | (6 .5) | (71.7) | (71.1) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Results Summary
3Q26 beat on better margins
Off revenue of NT$57,403mn (+9% QoQ/+28% YoY), GM contracted by 1.3ppt QoQ to 25.9% (vs. MSe/consensus at 24.6%/25.4%). The sequential decline was due to a high base in 2Q26, which was elevated due to some one-offs. Opex was well controlled at NT $6,211mn (opex ratio 10.8%), lower than our estimate of NT$6,851mn (opex ratio 11.5%) and consensus of NT$7,097mn (opex ratio 11.8%)
Operating profit came in at NT$8,655mn (+6% QoQ/+85% YoY; OPM 15.1%),11% and 5% higher than MSe of NT$7,807mn (OPM 13.1%) and consensus of NT$8,210mn (OPM 13.6%), respectively.
With non-op gains of NT$1,142mn (including FX gain of NT$734mn), net profit was NT $7,429mn (+4% QoQ/+60% YoY; EPS NT$3.26), 18% and 11% above MSe (NT$6,313mn; EPS NT$2.77) and consensus (NT$6,717mn; EPS NT$2.92).
Exhibit 1: 3Q26 r sults summary
| NT$ mn | 3Q26e Results - Actual | 3Q26e Results - QoQ | 3Q26e Results - YoY | MSe | Variance | Cons. | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 57,403 | 9% | 28% | 59,526 | -4% | 60,259 | -5% |
| COGS | -42,536 | 11% | 26% | -44,867 | -5% | -44,953 | -5% |
| Gross profit | 14,867 | 4% | 32% | 14,659 | 1% | 15,307 | -3% |
| Operating expenses | -6,211 | 1% | -5% | -6,851 | -9% | -7,097 | -12% |
| Operating income | 8,655 | 6% | 85% | 7,807 | 11% | 8,210 | 5% |
| Non-operating income | 1,142 | -2% | 29% | 445 | 157% | 530 | 116% |
| Pre-tax income | 9,798 | 5% | 76% | 8,252 | 19% | 8,740 | 12% |
| Income tax | -2,349 | 4% | 154% | -1,939 | 21% | -2,023 | 16% |
| Net income | 7,429 | 4% | 60% | 6,313 | 18% | 6,717 | 11% |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.26 | 4% | 59% | 2.77 | 18% | 2.92 | 12% |
| Margins (%) | ppt | ppt | ppt | ppt | |||
| Gross margin | 25.9% | -1.3 | 0.9 | 24.6% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 0.5 |
| Operating margin | 15.1% | -0.5 | 4.6 | 13.1% | 2.0 | 13.6% | 1.5 |
| Pre-tax margin | 17.1% | -0.7 | 4.7 | 13.9% | 3.2 | 14.5% | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 12.9% | -0.6 | 2.6 | 10.6% | 2.3 | 11.1% | 1.8 |
Sourc : Company data, Facts t, Morgan Stanl y R s arch ( ) stimat s.
M Update
Quarterly inancials
Exhibit 2: Lit -on: Quart rly Financials
| NT$ mn | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 36,417 | 40,421 | 44,891 | 44,356 | 43,407 | 52,703 | 57,403 | 60,395 | 166,085 | 213,909 | 296,449 |
| COGS | -28,195-31,479-33,648-34,724-34,004-38,355-42,536-44,639 | -128,046-159,534-215,897 | |||||||||
| Gross profit | 8,222 | 8,942 | 11,243 | 9,633 | 9,403 | 14,348 | 14,867 | 15,757 | 38,039 | 54,375 | 80,551 |
| Operating expenses | -4,546 | -5,215 | -6,560 | -4,980 | -5,304 | -6,146 | -6,211 | -6,549 | -21,301 | -24,209 | -32,988 |
| - Promotion | -1,532 | -2,051 | -2,535 | -1,512 | -1,500 | -1,623 | -1,560 | -1,631 | -7,629 | -6,313 | -7,609 |
| - ADM | -998 | -1,048 | -1,792 | -1,127 | -1,457 | -1,783 | -1,692 | -1,748 | -4,965 | -6,680 | -8,435 |
| - R&D | -2,023 | -2,110 | -2,244 | -2,345 | -2,341 | -2,787 | -2,950 | -3,171 | -8,721 | -11,249 | -16,949 |
| Operating income | 3,675 | 3,727 | 4,683 | 4,653 | 4,099 | 8,203 | 8,655 | 9,208 | 16,738 | 30,165 | 47,563 |
| Non-operating income | 994 | 536 | 886 | 560 | 871 | 1,166 | 1,142 | 320 | 2,975 | 3,499 | 1,680 |
| Net interest income | 424 | 323 | 184 | 188 | 214 | 195 | 96 | 100 | 1,119 | 605 | 400 |
| Net investment income | 596 | -3,235 | 1,389 | 293 | 99 | 1,237 | 280 | 70 | -956 | 1,687 | 1,000 |
| Net gain of investment disposal | 137 | -702 | 23 | 5 | 1 | -78 | 0 | 0 | -537 | -77 | 0 |
| Exchange gain | 379 | 2,540 | -751 | -122 | 284 | 1,106 | 734 | 0 | 1,091 | 2,124 | 0 |
| Others | -542 | 1,609 | 41 | 195 | 272 | -1,295 | 31 | 150 | 2,258 | -841 | 280 |
| Pre-tax income | 4,669 | 4,262 | 5,569 | 5,213 | 4,970 | 9,368 | 9,798 | 9,528 | 19,713 | 33,664 | 49,243 |
| Income tax | -1,214 | -1,108 | -924 | -1,355 | -1,195 | -2,248 | -2,349 | -2,191 | -4,601 | -7,984 | -11,686 |
| Net income | 3,456 | 3,155 | 4,645 | 3,860 | 3,775 | 7,116 | 7,429 | 7,317 | 15,116 | 25,637 | 37,477 |
| EPS (NT$) | 1.51 | 1.39 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 1.66 | 3.14 | 3.26 | 3.22 | 6.64 | 11.27 | 16.47 |
| Margins | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 22.6%22.1%25.0%21.7%21.7%27.2%25.9%26.1% | 22.9%25.4%27.2% | |||||||||
| Operating margin | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| Pre-tax margin | 12.8%10.5%12.4%11.8%11.4%17.8%17.1%15.8% | 11.9%15.7%16.6% | |||||||||
| Net margin | 9.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 12.6% |
| QoQ Growth | |||||||||||
| Sales | -4.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | -1.2% | -2.1% | 21.4% | 8.9% | 5.2% | |||
| Gross profit | 1.0% | 8.8% | 25.7% | -14.3% | -2.4% | 52.6% | 3.6% | 6.0% | |||
| Operating profit | 5.1% | 1.4% | 25.7% | -0.6% | -11.9% | 100.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | |||
| Pre-tax profit | 17.1% | -8.7% | 30.7% | -6.4% | -4.7% | 88.5% | 4.6% | -2.8% | |||
| Net profit | 13.3% | -8.7% | 47.2% | -16.9% | -2.2% | 88.5% | 4.4% | -1.5% | |||
| YoY Growth | |||||||||||
| Sales | 26.6%21.4%22.1%15.8%19.2%30.4%27.9%36.2% | 21.1%28.8%38.6% | |||||||||
| Gross profit | 40.6%21.0%36.3%18.3%14.4%60.5%32.2%63.6% | 28.4%42.9%48.1% | |||||||||
| Operating profit | 64.8%13.6%19.3%33.1%11.5%120.1%84.8%97.9% | 28.9%80.2%57.7% | |||||||||
| Pre-tax profit | 49.2% | 4.4% | 25.6% | 30.7% | 6.4% | 119.8% | 75.9% | 82.8% | 26.1% | 70.8% | 46.3% |
| Net profit | 44.7% | 1.3% | 37.0% | 26.6% | 9.3% | 125.5% | 59.9% | 89.6% | 26.6% | 69.6% | 46.2% |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s M Update
inancial Summary
Exhibit 3: Financial Summary - Lit -On
Consolidated Income Statement
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
2026E 2027E 2028E NT$ mn
137,134 166,085 213,909 296,449 380,464 Cash flow from Operations
-107,504 -128,046 -159,534 -215,897 -273,051 Net profits
29,630 38,039 54,375 80,551 107,413 Depreciation + Amortization
-9,484 Disposal of Investment
-8,435 -10,046 Working Capital Change
-8,721 -11,249 -16,949 -22,146 Other adjustments
1,680 Cash flow from Investing
400 Capex
1,000 Change of LT investment
0 Other adjustments
15,635 19,713 33,664 49,243 67,425 Cash flow from financing
11,942 15,116 25,637 37,477 51,357 Cash Dividend Paid
| NT$ mn | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 137,134 | 166,085 | 213,909 | 296,449 | 380,464 |
| COGS | -107,504 | -128,046 | -159,534 | -215,897 | -273,051 |
| Gross profit | 29,630 | 38,039 | 54,375 | 80,551 | 107,413 |
| Operating expenses | -16,648 | -21,301 | -24,209 | -32,988 | -41,668 |
| - Promotion | -5,184 | -7,629 | -6,313 | -7,609 | -9,484 |
| - ADM | -3,990 | -4,965 | -6,680 | -8,435 | -10,046 |
| - R&D | -7,476 | -8,721 | -11,249 | -16,949 | -22,146 |
| Operating income | 12,981 | 16,738 | 30,165 | 47,563 | 65,745 |
| Non-operating income | 2,653 | 2,975 | 3,499 | 1,680 | 1,680 |
| Interest income | 1,491 | 1,119 | 605 | 400 | 400 |
| Investment income | 2,808 | -956 | 1,687 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Disposal of investment | 75 | -537 | -77 | 0 | 0 |
| Exchange gain | 2,808 | 1,091 | 2,124 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | -4,528 | 2,258 | -841 | 280 | 280 |
| Pre-tax income | 15,635 | 19,713 | 33,664 | 49,243 | 67,425 |
| Income tax | -3,674 | -4,601 | -7,984 | -11,686 | -15,988 |
| Minority | 19 | -4 | 43 | 80 | 80 |
| Reported net income | 11,942 | 15,116 | 25,637 | 37,477 | 51,357 |
| EPS (NT$) | 5.21 | 6.64 | 11.27 | 16.47 | 22.57 |
Consolidated Balance Sheet
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow from Operations | 27,266 | 14,533 | 33,096 | 45,934 | 59,401 |
| Net profits | 14,571 | 15,116 | 25,637 | 37,477 | 51,357 |
| Depreciation + Amortization | 4,356 | 3,668 | 3,994 | 4,065 | 4,137 |
| Inv. Gain/Loss ( Equity ) | -1 | -86 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Disposal of Investment | 56 | 568 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Working Capital Change | 4,597 | -2,099 | -10,825 | -13,829 | -14,110 |
| Other adjustments | 3,687 | -2,635 | 14,290 | 18,221 | 18,016 |
| Cash flow from Investing | -3,340 | -7,395 | -13,287 | -8,556 | -11,858 |
| Capex | -3,698 | -6,795 | -13,287 | -8,556 | -11,858 |
| Change of LT investment | -72 | -43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change of ST investment | 63 | -417 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other adjustments | 367 | -140 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from financing | -22,045 | -23,099 | -20,221 | -29,559 | -40,508 |
| Increase in L/T debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Increase in S/T debt | -10,120 | -10,116 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Dividend Paid | -11,520 | -10,297 | -20,221 | -29,560 | -40,508 |
| Issuance of stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other adjustments | -406 | -2,686 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Exchange rate adjustment | -204 | -3,748 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net change in cash | 1,677 | -19,709 | -412 | 7,819 | 7,035 |
Consolidated Financial Ratios
1,009 Gross margin
37,182 42,318 57,999 80,379 103,158 Operating margin
26,817 34,262 39,796 53,856 68,113 Pretax margin
5,458 Net margin
7,748 YoY growth
2,246 Operating profits
1,710 Pretax profits
3,860 Net profits
30,187 20,029 20,029 20,029 20,029 Net Debt/Equity
3,000 ROAA
3,111 AR/NR Turnover (days)
113,772 115,709 140,389 181,220 222,163 AP/NP Turnover (days)
23,473 23,168 23,168 23,168 23,168 Cash conversion cycle (days)
| NT$ mn | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 100,684 | 80,974 | 80,563 | 88,381 | 95,417 |
| Mkt Securities | 933 | 1,009 | 1,009 | 1,009 | 1,009 |
| AR/NR | 37,182 | 42,318 | 57,999 | 80,379 | 103,158 |
| Inventory | 26,817 | 34,262 | 39,796 | 53,856 | 68,113 |
| Others | 3,501 | 5,458 | 5,458 | 5,458 | 5,458 |
| Current Assets | 169,117 | 164,021 | 184,824 | 229,083 | 273,155 |
| Long-term investments | 8,195 | 7,748 | 7,748 | 7,748 | 7,748 |
| Fixed assets | 18,776 | 24,752 | 34,495 | 39,436 | 47,607 |
| Deferred Asset | 1,628 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,246 |
| Intangible Assets | 3,156 | 3,060 | 2,610 | 2,160 | 1,710 |
| Other assets | 3,811 | 3,860 | 3,860 | 3,860 | 3,860 |
| Total Assets | 204,683 | 205,687 | 235,783 | 284,533 | 336,326 |
| S/T borrowings | 30,187 | 20,029 | 20,029 | 20,029 | 20,029 |
| AP/NP | 43,126 | 53,608 | 63,998 | 86,608 | 109,535 |
| Other ST liabilities | 34,556 | 35,960 | 50,250 | 68,471 | 86,487 |
| Total Current Liabilities | 107,869 | 109,597 | 134,277 | 175,108 | 216,052 |
| LT debt(include CB) | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 |
| Other LT liabilities | 2,903 | 3,111 | 3,111 | 3,111 | 3,111 |
| Total Liabilities | 113,772 | 115,709 | 140,389 | 181,220 | 222,163 |
| Common shares | 23,473 | 23,168 | 23,168 | 23,168 | 23,168 |
| Retained Earnings | 46,277 | 42,393 | 47,809 | 55,726 | 66,575 |
| Other shareholders' equity | 21,161 | 24,418 | 24,418 | 24,418 | 24,418 |
| Total Equity | 90,911 | 89,979 | 95,395 | 103,312 | 114,161 |
| Total Liab. & Shldr's Equity | 204,683 | 205,687 | 235,783 | 284,532 | 336,325 |
| 2023 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 22.0% | 22.9% | 25.4% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Operating margin | 9.8% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| Pretax margin | 12.4% | 11.9% | 15.7% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| Net margin | 9.8% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.5% |
| YoY growth | |||||
| Sales | -14.5% | 21.1% | 28.8% | 38.6% | 28.3% |
| Operating profits | -3.7% | 28.9% | 80.2% | 57.7% | 38.2% |
| Pretax profits | 2.9% | 26.1% | 70.8% | 46.3% | 36.9% |
| Net profits | 3.0% | 26.6% | 69.6% | 46.2% | 37.0% |
| EPS | 2.8% | 27.5% | 69.6% | 46.2% | 37.0% |
| Net Debt/Equity | -79.8% | -65.5% | -61.4% | -64.2% | -64.3% |
| Liabilities/Equity | 122.1% | 128.6% | 147.2% | 175.4% | 194.6% |
| Liabilities/Assets | 55.0% | 56.3% | 59.5% | 63.7% | 66.1% |
| ROAE | 17.4% | 16.7% | 27.7% | 37.7% | 47.2% |
| ROAA | 7.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 16.5% |
| AR/NR Turnover (days) | 87.2 | 87.4 | 85.6 | 85.2 | 88.0 |
| AP/NP Turnover (days) | 135.4 | 137.9 | 134.5 | 127.3 | 131.1 |
| Inventory Turnover (days) | 84.5 | 87.1 | 84.7 | 79.2 | 81.5 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) | 36.2 | 36.5 | 35.8 | 37.0 | 38.5 |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s M Update
Estimate Revisions
We bump up our EPS estimates by 2% for 2026, 3% for 2027, and 7% for 2028 to factor in the better-than-expected margin profile in 3Q26.
Exhibit 4: Lit on: Estimat R visions
| NT$ mn | 2026e Earnings Estimates - New | 2026e Earnings Estimates | 2026e Earnings Estimates - OldVariance | 2027e Earnings Estimates - New | 2027e Earnings Estimates | 2027e Earnings Estimates - OldVariance | 2028e Earnings Estimates - New | 2028e Earnings Estimates - Old | 2028e Earnings Estimates - Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 213,909 | 224,829 | -5% | 296,449 | 297,964 | -1% | 380,464 | 357,670 | 6% |
| COGS | -159,534 | -168,703 | -5% | -215,897 | -219,712 | -2% | -273,051 | -259,785 | 5% |
| Gross profit | 54,375 | 56,126 | -3% | 80,551 | 78,252 | 3% | 107,413 | 97,885 | 10% |
| Operating expenses | -24,209 | -26,044 | -7% | -32,988 | -33,189 | -1% | -41,668 | -37,645 | 11% |
| Operating income | 30,165 | 30,082 | 0% | 47,563 | 45,063 | 6% | 65,745 | 60,240 | 9% |
| Non-operating income | 3,499 | 2,876 | 22% | 1,680 | 2,500 | -33% | 1,680 | 2,500 | -33% |
| Pre-tax income | 33,664 | 32,958 | 2% | 49,243 | 47,563 | 4% | 67,425 | 62,740 | 7% |
| Income tax | -7,984 | -7,767 | 3% | -11,686 | -11,227 | 4% | -15,988 | -14,793 | 8% |
| Net income | 25,637 | 25,187 | 2% | 37,477 | 36,337 | 3% | 51,357 | 47,947 | 7% |
| EPS (NT$) | 11.27 | 11.07 | 2% | 16.47 | 15.97 | 3% | 22.57 | 21.07 | 7% |
| Margins (%) | ppt | ppt | ppt | ||||||
| Gross margin | 25.4% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 27.2% | 26.3% | 0.9 | 28.2% | 27.4% | 0.9 |
| Operating margin | 14.1% | 13.4% | 0.7 | 16.0% | 15.1% | 0.9 | 17.3% | 16.8% | 0.4 |
| Pre-tax margin | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 0.6 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 0.2 |
| Net margin | 12.0% | 11.2% | 0.8 | 12.6% | 12.2% | 0.4 | 13.5% | 13.4% | 0.1 |
Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch ( ) stimat s M Update
Valuation Methodology
Our price target (base case scenario value) is NT$285 (prior NT$315), erive from 15x 2027-28e P/E (previously 17x): We use price/earnings as our valuation methodology because we believe it appropriately captures Lite-On's earnings growth potential. We use a lower target multiple to reflect more conservative sentiment toward the AI space in the near term. We believe our target P/E multiple of 15x is justified by an earnings CAGR of 50% seen over 2025-28, which implies a PEG of 0.3. This is lower than the average of 1.6 in 2020-25, when the stock was trading at an average P/E of 14x for a 9% earnings CAGR.
Bull case scenario value - NT$490 (previously NT$500): We apply a 25x P/E multiple (previously 27x) to our average base case estimate for 2027-28. This scenario assumes better-than-expected margin expansion, driven by operating efficiency and accelerating production automation, while new business revenue comes in earlier than expected. Strength from cloud computing and auto electronics is greater than expected.
Bear case scenario value - NT$190 (previously NT$200): We apply a 10x P/E multiple (previously 11x) to our average base case estimate for 2027-28. This scenario assumes weaker-than-expected operating efficiency improvement, while pricing competition increases amid macro volatility; auto electronics takes longer to pick up.
Sourc : FactS t cons nsus stimat s, Morgan Stanl y R s arch M Update
Risk Reward - Lite-On Technology (2301.TW) Risk Reward - Lite-On Technology (2301.TW)
Stronger ASIC server power supply but fair risk/reward
NT$285.00 PRICE TARGET
Base case: P/E multiple of 15x based on average 2027-28 EPS estimates. We believe our target multiple is justified by the 50% earnings CAGR we estimate for 2025-28, implying a PEG of 0.3, vs. the stock's 16x P/E and 2% earnings CAGR during 2022-25, which implied a PEG of 7.2.
NT$315.94
◆
MS PT
Mean
Consensus Price Target Distribution
NT$185.50
NT$400.00
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
RISK REWARD CHART
Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS
- ▪We expect Lite-On Tech to benefit from strong AI server power demand in 2026-27, with the company gaining more traction on ASIC platforms.
- ▪We are mindful of weakness in consumer/IT demand amid rising input costs, which could weigh on Lite-On Tech's profit through 2027.
- ▪Liquid-cooling sidecar CDU system shipments could take more time to ramp up.
Risk Reward Themes
| Contrarian: | Negative |
|---|---|
| New Data Era: | Positive |
| Technology Diffusion: | Positive |
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
25x average 2027-28e P/E
Better-than-expected margin expansion: Operating efficiency and accelerating production automation drive margin expansion, while new-business revenue comes in earlier than expected. Growth in cloud computing and automotive electronics is stronger than expected.
15x average 2027-28e P/E
AI server projects progress, but some business uncertainties remain: We expect margin improvement from a better product mix as AI server power supply projects ramp up. However, we are mindful of weakness in consumer/IT demand amid rising input costs.
NT$190.00
10x average 2027-28e P/E
Operating margin contraction: Operating efficiency improves less than expected, while pricing competition intensifies amid macro volatility; automotive electronics take longer to ramp up.
NT$490.00
Morgan Stanley Estimates
NT$285.00
M Update
Risk Reward - Lite-On Technology (2301.TW)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers | Dec 2025 | Dec 2026eDec | 2027eDec | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opto-electronics OPM (%) | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Information Technologies OPM (%) | 9.2 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 8.6 |
| Opto-electronics revenue YoY (%) | 0.2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 |
| Information Technologies revenue YoY (%) | 7.7 | (4.7) | (0.5) | (0.2) |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- LED adoption (outdoor lighting/auto)
- Margin expansion
- Raw material prices, particularly for steel and copper
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
MS ALPHA MODELS
| 2/5 | 3 Month |
|---|---|
| MOST | Horizon |
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile
RISKS TO PT/RATING RISKS TO UPSIDE
- Stronger optical business growth
- Stronger data center/server demand
- PC/NB demand growth
- Downtrend in raw material prices
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- Macro demand weakness
- Weaker data center/server demand
- PC/NB demand slowdown
- Uptrend in raw material prices
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active
65.2%
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Update
Risk Reward Reference links
- View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/30/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/2 /2024) | HK$36.82 |
| Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb102.60 |
| BYD Electronics (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$21.80 |
| China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (002373.SZ) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb7.61 |
| Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb14.06 |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502.SZ) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb1 6.00 |
| Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | E (10/13/2026) | NT$1,085.00 |
| GoerTek Inc (002241.SZ) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb22.12 |
| Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (3000 8.SZ) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb3.88 |
| HIKVision Digital Technology (002415.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb34.55 |
| Largan Precision (3008.TW) | O (10/13/2026) | NT$5,430.00 |
| LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (002036.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb4. 0 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (002600.SZ) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb11.25 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$5.06 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$45.30 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb45.60 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.18 |
| Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.50 |
| Quectel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS) | E (10/0 /2024) | Rmb60.30 |
| Shanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$32.68 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb55.16 |
| Sunny Optical (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$63.30 |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (3003 4.SZ) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb148.00 |
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600745.SS) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb11.40 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$26.48 |
M Update M Update Stock Ratings ar subj ct to chang . Pl as s lat st r s arch for ach company.
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (60186 .SS) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb252.88 |
|---|---|---|
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (686 .HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$ 6.15 |
| Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (6032 7.SS) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb8 .18 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (002273.SZ) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb21.70 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (0 /07/2026) | Rmb553.00 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (0 /07/2026) | HK$676.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$1 .33 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb27.36 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$1,615.00 |
| Advantech (23 5.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$680.00 |
| AirTAC International (15 0.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,075.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$3,0 5.00 |
| AU Optronics (240 .TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$30.65 |
| Auras Technology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,330.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$1,625.00 |
| BOE Technology (000725.SZ) | O (0 /06/201 ) | Rmb4.46 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$716.00 |
| Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$1,755.00 |
| Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,335.00 |
| E Ink Holdings Inc. (806 .TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$14 .00 |
| Ennostar Inc (3714.TW) | U (0 /23/2022) | NT$58.10 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,385.00 |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. (204 .TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$326.50 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$42.55 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (205 .TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$ ,650.00 |
| Lens Technology (300433.SZ) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb25.58 |
| Lite-On Technology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$240.50 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.50 |
| Tianma Microelectronics (000050.SZ) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb5.33 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| Acer Inc. (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$30.40 |
| Asustek Computer Inc. (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$ 06.00 |
| Catcher Technology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$1 3.00 |
| Compal Electronics (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$35.20 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (0 /14/2026) | NT$4,675.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$3.35 |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (07/10/201 ) | Rmb45.00 |
| Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$336.00 |
| Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,020.00 |
| Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$245.50 |
| Inspur Electronic Information (000 77.SZ) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb54.18 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (0 /14/2026) | HK$34.68 |
| LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,370.00 |
| Lenovo (0 2.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$20.50 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | O (10/27/2026) | NT$1,860.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,1 0.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4 38.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$102.50 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$318.00 |
| Shengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | Rmb87.00 | |
| Shennan Circuits Co Ltd (002 16.SZ) | E (05/26/2022) E (08/24/2023) | Rmb233.00 |
| Unimicron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$ 8 .00 |
| Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (0 /11/2023) | NT$447.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$183.50 |
| Wiwynn Corp (666 .TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$1,810.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) - Zhen Ding (4 58.TW) | O (10/28/2025) - ++ | NT$502.00 - NT$486.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (0 /14/2026) | NT$405.00 |
| Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (0 /14/2026) | NT$1,265.00 |
- Historical pric s ar not split adjust d.
© 2026 Morgan Stanley