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原始內容
M August 13, 2026 02:32 PM GMT
Compal Electronics | Asia Pacific
2Q26 GM missed despite nonPC strength; stay UW
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- CY26 capex is guided to be NT$18bn; 1H26 capex was ~NT$9bn, NT$6-7bn of which was dedicated to server capacity expansion.
- CY27 capex is expected to remain elevated, though no numerical guidance was provided.
- 2Q GM was 4.6% (-60bps q/q), 80bps below our estimate/70 bps below the Street. Higher component costs diluted GM.
- 2Q OP was NT$2.9bn (+8% q/q), 13% below our estimate/9% below the Street, for OpM of 1.2% (-10bps q/q), reflecting operating leverage.
- 2Q non-op income was higher because of FVTPL gains. Thus, NP reached NT $3.1bn (+59% q/q), 44% above our estimate/39% above the Street, for EPS of NT $0.72.
PCs are the near-term drag: Management expects its 3Q NB shipment units to be flat q/q thanks to share gains; higher ASPs support sequential PC revenue growth. For the full year, Compal expects its PC shipments to decline ~15% y/y, in line with the market.
AI servers remain the growth driver: AI servers made up ~70% of server revenue in 2Q (servers' share of total revenue was in mid-single digits in 1Q an d high single digits in 2Q), with new Neocloud wins widening the pipeline. 3Q server revenue is guided to grow in high double digits q/q. For full-year 2026, servers are targeted at ~10% of the mix (unchanged). They are guided to rise to more than 30-40% in 2027, potentially taking PCs below 50% of total revenue (though we remain skeptical).
Compal currently mainly ships L6 for general servers and L10 for AI servers (B300 HGX), both of which carry higher GM and OpM vs. AI racks and the corporate average., but it expects more rack-scale AI server shipments from late 2026 onwards. This implies that Compal's margins could trend lower h/h because of a different product mix within servers in 2H. Of note, Compal's AI server business currently runs 100% on buy-and-sell.
Meaningful upside
Financial results versus consensus
Largely unchanged
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Irene Yen Research Associate Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Compal Electronics (2324.TW, 2324 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Underweight | Underweight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line | |||
| Price target | NT$23.00 | |||
| Up/downside to price | target (%) | (41) | ||
| Shr price, close (Aug 13, | 2026) | NT$39.30 | ||
| 52-Week Range | NT$47.75-26.70 | |||
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 4,471 | |||
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$175,695 | |||
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$146,904 | NT$146,904 | ||
| Avg daily trading value | (mn) | NT$1,817 | NT$1,817 | |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 1.38 | 1.98 | 2.23 | 2.63 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 1.49 | 2.11 | 2.52 | 2.91 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 757,513 | 892,173 | 976,621 | 1,025,98 |
| 3 | ||||
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 17,782 | 19,752 | 20,466 | 22,175 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 6,030 | 8,644 | 9,722 | 11,492 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 22.0 | 19.9 | 17.7 | 14.9 |
| RNOA (%) | 7.7 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| ROE (%) | 3.9 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 4.6 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 11.5 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 5.8 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (19.5) | (18.9) | (19.5) | (21.5) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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Exhibit 1 : Compal's 2Q26 results - summary
| Year to Dec. 31 (NT$m) | Actual 2Q26P | Q/Q | Y/Y | MSe 2Q26E | Diff.% | Cons. 2Q26E | Diff.% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L Summary | |||||||
| Net sales COGS | 238,295 (227,274) | 18% | 32% | 221,330 (209,393) | 8% | 220,341 (208,701) | 8% |
| Gross profit | 11,021 | 4% | 4% | 11,937 | -8% | 11,640 | -5% |
| Operating expenses | (8,166) | (8,673) | (8,494) | ||||
| Operating income | 2,855 | 8% | 9% | 3,264 | -13% | 3,146 | -9% |
| Non-operating income | 1,784 | 239 | 303 | ||||
| Pre-tax income | 4,639 | 50% | 260% | 3,503 | 32% | 3,449 | 35% |
| Income tax | (1,030) | (858) | |||||
| Minority interest | (476) | (469) | |||||
| Net income | 3,133 | 59% | 549% | 2,176 | 44% | 2,255 | 39% |
| EPS (NT$) Margins | 0.72 | ppt | ppt | 0.50 | ppt | 0.52 | ppt |
| Gross margin | 4.6% | -0.6 | -1.2 | 5.4% | -0.8 | 5.3% | -0.7 |
| Operating margin | 1.2% | -0.1 | -0.3 | 1.5% | -0.3 | 1.4% | -0.2 |
| Pretax margin | 1.9% | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.6% | 0.4 | 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 1.3% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0% | 0.3 | 1.0% | 0.3 |
Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs. Source: Company data, TEJ, Morgan Stanley Research.
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Valuation Methodology and Risks
Compal Electronics (2324.TW)
Base case, residual income model. Our key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.1% (beta 1.3, equity risk premium 6.0%, and risk-free rate 1.5%), a medium-term growth rate of 5.0%, and a long-term earnings growth rate of 3.0%.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger-than-expected NB and smartphone demand
- n Further share gains in iPad
- n Margin expansion thanks to better scale
Risks to Downside
- n Weaker-than-expected NB demand
- n Margin contraction from sales shortfall and fierce price competition
- n Weaker-than-expected iPad shipments
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