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Hon Hai (2317.TW): Aug revenues +52% YoY; Improving visibility in 3Q on AI server ramp up and smartphones spec upgrade; Buy (on CL)
Hon Hai's Aug revenues were +52% YoY/ -3% MoM to NT$922bn, or 12% lower than our previous estimates, and we attribute it to demand pull-in last month. From a MoM perspective, Cloud and Networking achieved signi fi cant growth MoM on pull-in of AI products, while Consumer Electronics and Computing segments saw MoM declines, and mgmt notes the main consumer electronics products entered a transition period to new products. From a YoY perspective, Computing delivered signi fi cant growth YoY on product momentum and higher shipment prices, followed by Consumer Electronics , Cloud and Networking and Components all achieving strong growth YoY in Aug. Management notes 3Q26 visibility has improved vs. previous, supported by strong ramp up of AI server racks and Consumer electronics enters the peak season.
We expect continued growth in the AI server business with market share gain opportunities, along with the upcoming smartphone form factor changes in 2026E to drive Hon Hai's growth ahead. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Exhibit 1: Hon Hai's Aug revenues +52% YoY, or -3% MoM
Source: Company data
3-month revenues preview: We expect company's 3Q26E revenues to be +47% YoY/ +20% QoQ to NT$3.1 trillion. Both Jul and Aug delivered strong revenues YoY growth (+54%/ 52% YoY), and we expect to see both YoY and MoM growth in Sep to NT$1.15bn, supported by AI server rack gradual shipment and new products roll-out of consumer electronics products.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to ed as research
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song +852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: We model Hon Hai's Sep 2026 revenue to be +37% YoY or +25% MoM Hon Hai's monthly/quarterly revenue
| May 2026 | June 2026 | July 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026E | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 859,409 | 821,763 | 946,513 | 921,766 | 1,150,427 | 1,207,948 | 1,183,789 | 2,525,894 | 3,018,705 |
| YoY | 40% | 52% | 54% | 52% | 37% | 35% | 40% | 41% | 47% |
| MoM/QoQ | 3% | -4% | 15% | -3% | 25% | 5% | -2% | 19% | 20% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 815,456 | 695,162 | 928,592 | 1,050,629 | 2,386,670 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 5% | 18% | 2% | -12% | 6% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EV business in August 2026: Hon Hai's EV subsidiary Foxtron (2258.TW, not covered) reported Aug revenues of NT$914mn (vs. Jul-26 / Aug-25 revenues at NT$598mn / NT$111mn) . Post the announcement of its proposal to acquire Luxgen in December (report), Foxtron has announced its fi rst self-branded vehicle 'Foxtron Bria'. Also, the partnership with Mitsubishi Motors (7211.T, covered by Kota Yuzawa) on passenger cars (read more in our report) and zero emission buses (read more on the company's announcement) suggests scope for incremental growth opportunities for Foxtron which could be positive for Hon Hai.
Exhibit 3: Foxtron's (Hon Hai's EV subsidiary) monthly revenues
Source: Company data
Earnings revision: We factor in Hon Hai Aug revenues and revise down our 2026E earnings by 1%, mainly on lower revenues; meanwhile we remain positive on gradual AI server ramp up and smartphones spec upgrade to drive growth ahead. We keep 2027E/ 2028E estimates largely unchanged.
Exhibit 4: Earnings revision
| NTDm | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg | |
| Revenues | 11,068,297 | 11,049,022 | -0.2% | 14,028,433 | 14,028,433 | 0% | 18,122,500 | 18,122,500 | 0% |
| GP | 658,118 | 655,343 | -0.4% | 740,692 | 740,692 | 0% | 820,946 | 820,946 | 0% |
| OP | 381,329 | 379,038 | -1% | 413,913 | 413,913 | 0% | 468,463 | 468,463 | 0% |
| Net income | 273,483 | 271,651 | -1% | 317,239 | 317,277 | 0% | 356,795 | 356,713 | 0% |
| EPS (diluted, NT$) | 19.26 | 19.13 | -1% | 22.35 | 22.35 | 0% | 25.13 | 25.13 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |||
| OPM | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | |||
| NM | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: Our 12m TP for Hon Hai is unchanged at NT$400 and remains based on a P/E. Our target 2027E P/E multiple of 18.9x (unchanged) is derived from a peers' average ratio of trading P/E to forward year NI YoY growth and OPM (P/E divided by the sum of NI YoY and OPM). Our target P/E of 18.9x is in the range of the company's e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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historical forward P/E since 2010, re fl ecting our positive view on Hon Hai's business expansion from the competitive consumer electronics market to AI servers and EVs outsourcing, which should drive pro fi t expansion with diversifying business opportunities for Hon Hai. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Exhibit 5: Hon Hai P&L Summary
| Hon Hai (2317.TW) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTD bn | |||||||||||||||
| P&L | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6,627 | 6,162 | 6,860 | 8,103 | 11,049 | 14,028 | 18,122 | 1,644 | 1,793 | 2,059 | 2,606 | 2,120 | 2,526 | 3,019 | 3,385 |
| COGS | (6,227) | (5,774) | (6,431) | (7,605) | (10,394) | (13,288) | (17,302) | (1,544) | (1,680) | (1,928) | (2,453) | (1,989) | (2,371) | (2,840) | (3,194) |
| Gross profit | 400 | 388 | 429 | 498 | 655 | 741 | 821 | 101 | 114 | 131 | 153 | 131 | 155 | 178 | 191 |
| Operating expense | (226) | (221) | (228) | (239) | (276) | (327) | (352) | (54) | (57) | (60) | (68) | (55) | (60) | (76) | (85) |
| EBITDA | 250 | 251 | 288 | 347 | 481 | 536 | 592 | 70 | 80 | 95 | 111 | 102 | 122 | 129 | 127 |
| D&A | (76) | (84) | (88) | (88) | (102) | (122) | (124) | (24) | (23) | (25) | (26) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (21) |
| EBIT | 174 | 167 | 201 | 259 | 379 | 414 | 468 | 46 | 57 | 71 | 86 | 76 | 95 | 102 | 106 |
| Net interest income/(expense) | 9 | 16 | 9 | (7) | (4) | 11 | 11 | 1 | (1) | (3) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | 6 |
| Disposal of assets (pre-tax) | 4 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | 1 | (5) | 1 | 34 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Pretax profit | 188 | 192 | 212 | 293 | 391 | 442 | 492 | 59 | 65 | 87 | 82 | 74 | 95 | 105 | 117 |
| Income tax | (36) | (37) | (40) | (78) | (83) | (93) | (103) | (13) | (16) | (21) | (29) | (17) | (22) | (21) | (23) |
| Minorities | (10) | (13) | (19) | (26) | (36) | (32) | (32) | (4) | (5) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (13) | (8) | (8) |
| Net income | 141 | 142 | 153 | 189 | 272 | 317 | 357 | 42 | 44 | 58 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 76 | 86 |
| EPS (NTD) | 10.04 | 10.07 | 10.79 | 13.43 | 19.13 | 22.35 | 25.13 | 2.98 | 3.16 | 4.08 | 3.20 | 3.52 | 4.22 | 5.34 | 6.05 |
| DPS (NTD) | 5.22 | 5.31 | 5.70 | 7.15 | 10.18 | 11.89 | 13.37 | ||||||||
| Dividend payout ratio | 52% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | ||||||||
| YoY% growth & margins | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue growth | 11% | -7% | 11% | 18% | 36% | 27% | 29% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 29% | 41% | 47% | 30% |
| EBITDA growth | 11% | 0% | 15% | 20% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 46% | 52% | 35% | 14% |
| EBIT growth | 17% | -4% | 20% | 29% | 46% | 9% | 13% | 27% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 63% | 68% | 45% | 24% |
| Net income growth | 2% | 0% | 7% | 24% | 43% | 17% | 12% | 91% | 27% | 17% | -2% | 19% | 35% | 31% | 90% |
| EPS growth | 1% | 0% | 7% | 24% | 42% | 17% | 12% | 90% | 26% | 16% | 0% | 18% | 34% | 31% | 89% |
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| EBITDA margin | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| EBIT margin | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Hon Hai 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Hon Hai
Valuation methodology: We are Buy rated on Hon Hai. Our 12-month target price of NT$400 is based on an 18.9x 2027E P/E multiple, which is set in line with peers' PEG&M ratio (i.e., P/E vs. forward-year earnings growth and OPM).
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected ramp-up of the AI server business; (2) weaker-than-expected EV total solution performance across EV assembly, design, software, and semis; (3) slower-than-expected ramp-up of capacity globally; and (4) fi ercer-than-expected competition in the consumer electronics EMS business.
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2317.TW
12m Price Target:
NT$400.00
Price:
NT$256.00
Upside: 56.3%
| Buy CL | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market c ap: NT$3.6tr / $11 4 . 8bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$3.6tr / $113. 9bn 3 m AD T V : NT$13.6 bn / $ 42 6. 9mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : N o | Revenue (NT$m n ) N e w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITD A (NT$ mn) E PS(NT$) N e w EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 8 , 1 03, 1 04. 8 8,103,104.8 347,220.9 1 3.4 1 13.41 13.9 1.5 3.8 14.3 | 12/26E 11 ,049,0 22 . 2 11,068,297.0 480,580.6 1 9. 1 3 19.26 13.4 1.9 4.0 16.7 | 12/27E 1 4,0 28 ,43 2 . 8 14,028,432.8 535,508.0 22 .3 5 22.35 11.5 1.8 4.6 17.8 | 12/28E 18 , 122 ,499. 6 18,122,499.6 592,366.5 25 . 1 3 25.13 10.2 1.6 5.2 16.6 |
| 6/26 | 9 /26E | 12/26E | 3 /27E |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 4 Sep 2026 close.
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