PDF 原檔：報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-07）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_001.png |
126KB | 真資料圖 | 側欄快照：三位分析師聯絡資訊（Chao Wang、Allen Chang、Al Wang）＋ Key Data（市值 NT$24.3bn、EV NT$20.4bn、3個月日均量）＋ GS Forecast 表格（12/25–12/28E 營收/EBITDA/EPS 新舊值、P/E、P/B、殖利率、CROCI，及 6/26–3/27E 單季 EPS）＋ GS Factor Profile 四項百分位橫條圖（Growth／Financial Returns／Multiple／Integrated）。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_002.png |
42KB | 真資料圖 | Price Performance 折線圖：8086.TWO（深藍）vs Taiwan SE Weighted Index（淺藍），橫軸 Oct-25 至 Jul-26；下方列 3m/6m/12m 絕對與相對指數報酬率（12m 絕對 +23.6%、相對 -34.7%）。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_003.png |
54KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：Utilization rate（深藍線，左軸）vs AWSC's GM（灰線，右軸）雙軸折線圖，橫軸 4Q23–4Q28E；2Q24 為谷底（UTR ~40%、GM ~15%），2Q26 後 UTR/GM 同步回升至 80%+／30%+區間。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_004.png |
42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 2：Smartphone shipment YoY（深藍柱）vs PA foundry cellular shipment YoY（紅柱）雙柱狀圖，2020–2028E；2026E 手機出貨 YoY -10%、PA foundry 出貨 YoY +40%。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_005.png |
47KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 3：China cellular PA market share 堆疊柱狀圖（Cellular PA-IDMs 深藍 vs Cellular PA-Foundry 綠），2020–2028E；Foundry 占比由 2020 年 21% 提升至 2028E 82%。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_006.png |
96KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4：Win+AWSC CAPEX 柱狀圖（NT$mn，藍柱）疊 YoY 成長率折線圖（綠線），橫軸 2001–2028E；2007 年與 2021 年為兩次高峰，2026E 後緩步回升。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_007.png |
123KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：GaAs TAM 與 Foundry TAM 柱狀圖（US$mn）疊 Foundry as % of total 折線圖，2017–2030E；Foundry 滲透率由 2017 年 9% 升至 2030E 19%，圖上附文字框說明各期驅動因素（IDM UTR、智慧型手機出貨衰退、中美設計商轉單）。 |
報告_GS_宏捷科8086_20260806_008.png |
79KB | 真資料圖 | GS rating and stock price target history 折線圖：8086.TWO 股價（深藍）vs Taiwan SE Weighted Index（灰，右軸），橫軸 2023–2026；上方標註歷次評等區間（NA／B（Buy）／N（Neutral，自 2024-12-02 起維持至今））與歷次目標價點位（215→…→143→147）。 |
原始內容
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AWSC (8086.TWO)
Earnings Review: Rising material cost will continue to weight on pro fi
8086.TWO
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$147.00
Pri c e:
NT$123.50
Upside:
19.0%
AWSC's 2Q26 core business OP was NT$290mn, which was lower than both GSe/BBG consensus of NT$350mn/327mn, mainly due to the hike in raw material cost, leading to a 30.0% GM (lower than GSe/BBG consensus GM of 34.8%/32.6%), despite UTR in 2Q26 remaining stable at 65-70%. Moreover, AWSC reported NI of NT$278mn, which was in line with GSe but 7% lower than BBG consensus while tax rate is lower (9% vs. 17% in 1Q26) due to tax credit from R&D.
Going into 3Q26, we believe the company's revenue will decrease by 3% and the solid pull in demand from Korean smartphone suppliers will be o ff set by the weaker demand from lower-end smartphone. Moreover, we expect the company's utilization rate to remain stable at 65-70% in 3Q26 and its GM to go down to 25.6% (down 4.4ppt QoQ) driven by higher raw material costs.
We expect the rise in material costs will continue to have a negative impact on AWSC's pro fi tability, as the company is securing raw materials at higher cost as low-cost inventory has been depleted following the strong demand pull-in during 1H26. Despite the company continuing to negotiate a pricing increase with clients, we remain cautious on the low-end segment within the cellular business as customers are more price-sensitive.
For AI-related business, the company will continue to ship VCSEL products for 400G/800G optical transceiver this year, and we expect revenue contribution to be <2% in 2026E. The company continues to make progress on the new PD (Photodiode) product and is currently undergoing veri fi cation with a major customer, while the company is also engaging with several potential customers. The company expects PD products to make more contribution starting in 2H27 given its long veri fi cation process (typically 6-12+ months).
Investment view
tability; Neutral
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$24.3bn / $751.3mn
Enterprise value: NT$20.4bn / $631.8mn
3m ADTV: NT$770.9mn / $24.4mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Electronic Components
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue(NT$mn) New | 4,116.5 | 4,997.6 | 6,327.4 | 7,933.9 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 4,116.5 | 5,261.9 | 6,602.3 | 7,883.1 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 1,434.9 | 1,810.4 | 2,282.4 | 2,820.7 |
| EPS(NT$) New | 3.36 | 4.78 | 6.26 | 8.51 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 3.36 | 5.32 | 6.53 | 8.44 |
| P/E (X) | 28.6 | 25.8 | 19.7 | 14.5 |
| P/B (X) | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| C RO C I (%) | 13.1 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 18.9 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 1.42 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.08 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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AWSC (8086.TWO)
Rating since Dec 2, 2024
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 28.6 | 25.8 | 19.7 | 14.5 |
| P/B (X) | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| FCF yield (%) | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 11.3 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 11.3 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 7.1 |
| CROCI (%) | 13.1 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 18.9 |
| ROE (%) | 8.2 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 18.0 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (31.6) | (45.1) | (44.9) | (44.4) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (31.6) | (45.1) | (44.9) | (44.4) |
| Interest co v er (X) | 46.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Days in v entory outst , sales | 76.9 | 58.4 | 43.2 | 42.2 |
| Recei v able days | 55.7 | 43.7 | 32.2 | 32.4 |
| Days p ayable outstandin g | 34.7 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 36.2 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 8.0 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 17.5 |
| Turno v er (X) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| L e v era g e (X) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| G ross cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 11 , 148.4 | 10 , 940.9 | 11 , 943.9 | 13 , 096.3 |
| A v era g e ca p ital e mp loyed (NT $ ) | 5 , 751.4 | 5 , 166.2 | 4 , 827.5 | 5 , 138.9 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 41.89 | 43.57 | 45.76 | 48.74 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | (7.6) | 21.4 | 26.6 | 25.4 |
| EBITDA growth | 21.3 | 26.2 | 26.1 | 23.6 |
| EPS growth | 26.7 | 42.4 | 31 | 35. 8 |
| DPS growth | 41.2 | 8 5.1 | 31 | 35. 8 |
| EBIT margin | 17.9 | 21. 8 | 24.2 | 25.7 |
| EBITDA margin | 34.9 | 36.2 | 36.1 | 35.6 |
| Net income margin | 16.0 | 1 8 . 8 | 19.5 | 21.1 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
Source: FactSet. Price as of 6 Aug 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 4,116 . 5 | 4,997 . 6 | 6,327 . 4 | 7,933 . 9 |
| Cost of goods sold | (3,026 . 6) | (3,525 . 9) | (4,281 . 2) | (5,274 . 4) |
| SG& A | (157 . 0) | (153 . 2) | (188 . 3) | (239 . 8) |
| R&D | (195 . 0) | (229 . 9) | (326 . 4) | (380 . 4) |
| Other operating inc . /(exp . ) E BITDA | -- 1 ,434.9 | -- 1 , 81 0.4 | -- 2 , 282 .4 | -- 2 , 82 0. 7 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (697 . 0) | (721 . 7) | (751 . 0) | (781 . 5) |
| E BIT | 7 3 7 .9 | 1 ,0 88 . 6 | 1 , 5 3 1 .3 | 2 ,039. 2 |
| Net interest inc . /(exp . ) | 42 . 6 | 71 . 3 | 97 . 3 | 101 . 0 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | -- | -- | -- | -- 2 ,039. 2 |
| Pre-tax pr ofi t | 78 0. 5 (120 . | 1 , 11 0.3 (170 . 4) | 1 , 5 0 1 .3 (270 . 2) | (367 . 1) |
| Provision for taxes | 3) -- | -- | -- | |
| Minority interest Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- -- |
| N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept ion a ls) | 0. | , 672 . | ||
| 66 1 | 939.9 | 1 , 2 3 1 . 1 | 1 1 | |
| Post-tax exceptionals N et inc . ( p os t-ex c ept ion a | -- 66 0. 1 | -- 939.9 | -- 1 , 2 3 1 . 1 | -- 1 , 672 . 1 |
| ls) E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.3 6 | 4. 78 | 6 . 26 | 8 . 51 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.3 6 | 4. 78 | 6 . 26 | 8 . 51 |
| E P S(b a sic , p os t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.3 6 | 4. 78 | 6 . 26 | 8 . 51 |
| E P S(dilu te d , p os t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.3 6 | 4. 78 | 6 . 26 | 8 . 51 |
| DPS (NT$) | 1 . 68 | 3 . 11 | 4 . 07 | 5 . 53 |
| Div . payout ratio (%) | 50 . | 65 . | 65 . | 65 . 0 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ______ 12/28E |
| a lents | 12/25 3,450.3 | 12/26E 4,708.6 | 12/27E 4,887.5 | 5,101.9 |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv Accounts receiv a ble | 704.4 | 492.9 | 624.1 | 782.5 1,011.5 |
| Inventory | 922.7 | 676.2 | 821.1 491.8 | 491.8 |
| Other current a ssets | 491.8 5 , 56 9.3 | 491.8 6 ,3 6 9. 5 | 6 , 82 4.4 | 7 ,3 87 . 7 |
| Total current assets Net PP&E | 4,792.9 | 4,651.2 | 4,900.1 | 5,318.6 |
| Net int a ngibles | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 |
| Tot a l investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | (1.0) 138.8 | (2.0) |
| Other long-term a ssets | 138.8 1 | 138.8 11 , 18 3.9 | 11 , 886 .9 | 138.8 12 , 867 . 6 |
| Total assets | 0, 525 . 5 | 469.2 | 578.0 | |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 337.7 | 386.4 | 150.0 | |
| Short-term debt | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | -- |
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- 1,491.5 | 1,778.2 |
| Other current li a bilities Total current liabilities | 1,021.4 1 , 5 09. 1 | 1,302.2 1 , 8 3 8 . 6 | 2 , 11 0. 7 | 2 , 5 0 6 . 2 |
| Long-term debt | 698.3 | 698.3 | 698.3 | 698.3 |
| Long-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | |
| Other long-term li a bilities | -- 85.2 | 85.2 | 85.2 | 85.2 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 78 3. 5 | 78 3. 5 | 78 3. 5 | 78 3. 5 |
| Total liabilities Preferred sh a res | 2 , 2 9 2 . 6 -- | 2 , 622 . 1 -- | 2 , 8 94. 2 -- | 3, 28 9. 7 -- |
| Tot a l commonequity | 8,232.8 | 8,561.8 | 8,992.7 -- | 9,577.9 -- |
| Minority interest | -- 1 0, 525 . | -- | 11 , 886 .9 | , 867 . 6 |
| Total liabilities &equity | 5 | 11 , 18 3.9 | 12 | |
| Net debt, a djusted | (2,602.0) | (3,860.2) | (4,039.2) | (4,253.5) |
| __________ | ||||
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) Net income | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E 1,231.1 | 12/28E 1,672.1 |
| D&Aadd-back Minority interest | 660.1 697.0 | 939.9 721.7 | 751.0 | 781.5 |
| add-back Net (inc)/dec working capital | -- (153.3) | -- | -- (193.2) | -- (240.1) |
| Other operating cash flow Cash flow fro m operations | 104.2 1 , 3 0 8 .0 | 506.7 -- | -- | -- |
| 2 , 168 .4 | 1 , 78 9.9 | 2 , 21 4. 6 | ||
| Capital expenditures | (225.0) -- | (580.0) -- | (1,000.0) -- | (1,200.0) -- |
| Acquisitions Divestitures | (1.1) | -- | ||
| -- | -- | -- | ||
| Others Cash flow fro m | (481.4) ( 7 0 7 . 5 ) | -- ( 0.0) | -- ,000.0) | ( 1 , 2 00.0) |
| investing | 58 | ( 1 | ||
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | -- | (800.2) -- | ||
| Inc/(dec) in debt | (330.1) 465.0 | (330.1) | (610.9) | |
| Other financing | (111.1) | -- 0.0 | -- 0.0 | 0.0 |
| cash flows Cash flow fro m financing | 23 . 8 | ( 33 0. 1 ) | ( 61 0.9) | 8 00. 2 ) 21 4.4 |
| Total cash flow | 62 4. 2 | 1 , 258 . 2 | 178 | ( |
| Free cash flow | 1,082.9 | 1,588.4 | .9 789.9 | 1,014.6 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
prounce mix
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
— Utilization rate
40.0%
30.0%
mcrease 1170/470/47011404014 1405
60%
50%
40%
We reiterate our conservative view on the cellular/WiFi PA industry (see here) as we continue to see weaker smartphone shipment (-10%/+3%/+1% in 2026/27/28, see here) as end demand continues to be impacted by the elevated memory price (see here).
10.0%
For AWSC, we believe the company's superior cost control capability and higher production yield relative to peers should continue to support market share gains among China PA design houses as Chinese clients increasingly shift toward higher-end PA products. In addition, AWSC has continued to expand its market share with the Korean smartphone brand, which we believe will continue to drive in its cellular business over the coming quarters/years. Overall, we expect AWSC to continue gaining share from its key competitors due to (1) its strategic focus on China and US PA design houses, and (2) its competitive pricing strategy, supported by a more favorable cost structure comparing to its key competitor, Win Semi (AWSC/Win Semi's fi xed cost accounts for 30%/40% of the total, while Win Semi's COGS per wafer ~130% higher than AWSC's).
We continue to see recovery in 2026 CAPEX plans among Taiwan PA foundry players, but we do not view this as an indication of a meaningfully stronger demand outlook as the capital spending is more related to new AI businesses. AWSC reiterated its 2026 CAPEX at NT$500-600mn and further expect CAPEX to increase in 2027/28. Management continue to expect UTR to reach at most ~70% in 2026, implying no need for capacity expansion in the near term.
Overall, we maintain our Neutral rating on AWSC with a new 12-m TP of NT$147 (from NT$143) as we roll over our valuation period by one quarter.
Exhibit 1: AWSC's GM to be driven by utilization rate and product mix
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: We expect cellular PA foundry shipments to increase 11%/4%/4% in 2026/27/28E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
48%
42%
40%
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
LUZO/< /LOE
100%
Went up due to IDMs' full UTR,
90%
12,000
80%
70%
10,000
60%
50%
40%
8,000
30%
20%
6,000
10%
0%
2020
4,000
2,000
went up.
35%
49%
56%
Foundry ratio went down
given smartphone
shipment decline, leading
o duually prove starting rom cuco
12,000
Foundry ratio uptrend while China/US
IDMs PA (both 4G and 5G).
design houses continue to replace
10,000
8,000
6,000
16%
4,000
2,000
2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Foundry TAM (US$mn)
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
600%
400%
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: We believe the foundry penetration rate will grow to 15%/16%/17% in 2026/27/28E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
25%
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e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Exmoll /• cammings revision labie
AWSC P&L (NT$ mn)
AWSC (8086. TWO)
Sales
Gross Profit
EBIT
Revenue
2Q26
4,998
2026E New 2026E Old
GS est.
Diff (%)
Q0Q
Diff. 2027E New 2027E Old
-5%
1Q26
QoQ
YoY
6,602
2Q25
5,262
1,298
1,352
-4%
6,327
1,222
1,472
1,089
1,724
1,271
-15%
-14%
Exhibit 6: AWSC 2Q26 result vs. GSe/consensus
Pre-tax income
Ratio analysis
Gross margin
EBIT margin
Net profit
EPS, NT$
Gross margin (%)
Net margin
EBIT margin (%)
Net margin (%)
423
6%
2,046
1,531
1,231
-8%
-13%
974
2,189
1,605
1,284
232
Diff.
2028E New 2028E Old
YoY
33%
68%
-5%
-4%
Bloomberg consensus
Diff.
Consensus
7,934
7,883
000000000
2,659
2,710
2,039
1,319
1,672
430
2,074
1.659
8.44
-2%
-10%
2%
1%
| -12% 359 | -12% 359 | -12% 359 | -14% 158 116 6.53 | -14% 158 116 6.53 | 164% 8.51 | 164% 8.51 | -8% 1% | -8% 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 350 280 29.4% | -1% 32.8% | 297 -3.3pp | -6% 32.3% | 99 33.2% | 181% -0.8pp | 33.5% | 334 274 2% 34.4% | |
| 1.42 21.8% 18.8% | 0% 24.1% | 1.51 -2.4pp | -6% 4.29 | 0.50 24.3% | 182% -0.1pp | 1.53 25.7% | -7% 26.3% 21.1% -0.9pp -0.6pp | |
| 30.0% 34.8% | -4.8ppt 19.9% | 34.6% -1.1pp | -4.7ppt 19.5% | 23.8% 19.4% | 6.1ppt 0.0pp | 32.6% 21.1% | -2.6ppt 0.0pp | |
| 22.3% 25.9% | -3.6ppt | 27.4% | -5.1ppt | 16.3% | 6.0ppt | 24.8% | -2.5ppt | |
| 21.4% 20.7% | 0.7ppt | 24.3% | -2.8ppt | 10.2% | 11.3ppt | 20.7% | 0.7ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Earnings revisions
We revise down our 2026/27 revenue by 5/4% to factor in a more conservative outlook for the low-end segment within the cellular business but revise up our 2028 revenue by 1% with more AI-related revenue; we revise down 2026/27/28E GM estimates by 0.9/0.4/0.3ppt to re fl ect the negative impact from rising material cost. Overall, we revise down 2026/27E earnings by 10/4% and revise up 2028E earnings by 1%.
Exhibit 7: Earnings revision table
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation
We maintain our Neutral rating and revise up our TP from NT$143 to NT$147, based on a 27x target PE (in line with the company's past 10-year forward P/E multiple, and in line with the inventory build-up period average P/E), factoring in our earnings revisions and, consistent with our group coverage practices, rolling over our valuation period from 2H26-1H27E to 4Q26-3Q27E.
-11%
wwwwwwwn
83%
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e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
NTSmn
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating income
Pretax income
Taxes expense
Net income
EPS, NT$
As % of sales
Gross margin
Operating expense ratio
Operating margin
Net margin
QoQ growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
Yor growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
1Q25
(82)
79
97
2Q25
974
(74)
158
116
(15)
(17)
Exhibit 8: P&L
2Q26
1,298
389
(100)
290
307
(29)
278
1.42
4Q26E
1,215
336
(97)
239
219
(39)
179|
0.91
3Q26E
1,262
323
(97)
226
226
(41)
185
0.94
1Q27E
1,287
386
(108)
278
258
(46)
212
1.08
2Q27E
1,580
528
(126)
402
392
(70)
321
1.63
3Q27E
1,734
577
(139)
438
438
(79)
359
1.83
2024
4,456
885
(360)
525
597
(76)
521
2.65
2025
4.117
1,090
(352)
738
780
(120)
660
3.36
2026E
4,998
1,472
(383)
1.089
1,110
(170)
940
4.78
2028E
7,934
2,039
2,039
(367)
1,672
8.51
| 20.9% | 23.8% | 34.6% | 30.0% | 25.6% | 27.6% | 30.0% | 33.4% | 33.3% | 32.1% | 19.9% | 26.5% 29.4% | 32.3% | 33.5% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% 28.2% 8.3% | 30.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | ||||||||
| 10.7% 10.2% | 8.2% | 27.4% | 22.3% | 7.7% 17.9% | 8.0% 19.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% 25.4% | 8.0% 25.3% | 8.2% 23.9% | 11.8% | 17.9% 7.7% 21.8% | ||||
| 10.7% | 16.3% 10.2% 19.9% 19.5% | 22.2% 20.8% | 24.3% | 21.4% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 21.6% 16.5% | 20.3% | 20.7% | 19.6% | 11.7% | 16.0% 18.8% | 24.2% 19.5% | 25.7% 21.1% | |
| 1.6% | 26.3% 14.7% | 12.2% | -2.5% | 6.2% | -2.8% | -3.7% | 5.9% | 22.8% | 9.7% | -0.5% | |||||
| 285.1% | 43.9% 35.6% | 21.1% | 11.0% | -8.0% | -17.0% | 3.9% | 15.1% | 36.6% | 9.3% | -3.9% | |||||
| -334.7% | 100.2% 40.2% | 25.5% | 20.1% | -13.4% | -21.9% | 5.6% 16.6% | 44.3% | 9.1% | -58% | ||||||
| 408.7% | 19.9% 120.3% | 19.6% | 13.9% | -6.2% -33.4% | -3.3% 18.1% | 51.6% | 11.9% | -5.8% | |||||||
| -40.0% | -25.5% 1.4% | 64.9% | 58.4% | 33.3% | 12.9% | -3.0% | 5.3% 21.7% | 37.4% | 42.0% | 64% | -8% | 21% | 27% | 25% | |
| -49.0% | -31.3% 66.9% | 810.2% | 162.3% | 67.6% | 2.6% | -11.9% | -8.7% | 35.7% | 78.5% | 65.1% | 113% | 23% | 35% | 39% | 30% |
| -64.3% | -34.1% 128.8% | -926.5% | 322.8% | 82.9% | 1.9% | -14.3% | -16.8% | 38.7% | 93.9% | 73.1% | 675% | 41% | 48% | 41% | 33% |
| -61.4% | -52.7% 166.8% | 1507.0% | 259.7% | 181.3% | -14.9% | -31.2% -28.6% | 15.4% | 93.9% | 88.9% | 530% | 27% | 42% | 31% | 36% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment Thesis and TP & risks
AWSC is one of the largest GaAS foundries globally, with 10-15% market share in the GaAS foundry industry in 2025. We expect the company to enjoy solid share gain opportunity in the long term, considering its much lower than peers' production cost and better production e ffi ciency. However, given the high inventory level in the supply chain, and the slower-than-expected Android smartphone PA demand in coming quarters, we expect relatively slow pro fi t growth in the near term.
We are Neutral rated given the company's relatively slow pro fi t growth in coming quarters. We think the stock is priced fairly, trading at its historical upcycle average P/E multiple, despite the long-term market share growth opportunity. We forecast AWSC's net income to grow at a 34% 2026-28E CAGR. The key up/downside risks are (1) easing/rising competition in the China PA foundry market, (2) faster/slower-than-expected progress on 5G/WiFi 7 upgrade trends, and (3) faster/slower-than expected progress with new businesses, including LEO satellite, drones and datacom.
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$147 is based on a target 27x 4Q26-3Q27 P/E, which is in line with the company's past 10-year forward P/E multiple and the inventory build-up period average P/E. We consider this multiple appropriate given the soft demand outlook and our positive view on the company's longer-term share gain opportunity.
The key up/downside risks are 1) easing/rising competition in the China PA foundry market, (2) faster/slower-than-expected progress on 5G/WiFi 7 upgrade trends, and (3) faster/slower-than expected progress with new businesses, including LEO satellite, drones and datacom.
99
3Q25
1,117
315
(93)
222
261
(43)
218
1.11
4Q25
1,253
381
(103)
278
306
(45)
261
1.33
1Q26
1,222
423
(89)
334
359
(62)
297
1.51
4Q27E
1.7261
555
(142)
413
413
(74)
339
1.72
2027E
6,327
1,531
1.501
(270)
1,231
6.26
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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