Stock LLM Wiki

報告_Daiwa_研華2395_20261104

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_研華2395_20261104_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-11-07)

本份抽出 3 張 attachment;001(股價表現)、002(1 年遠期 PER)小於 40KB,未逐張驗證、不嵌。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_研華2395_20261104_003.png 41KB 真資料圖(訂單類,財務類不嵌) 研華 B/B ratio 圖(1Q20–3Q26):長條為 Booking 與 Shipment(USDm,左軸),折線為 BB ratio(右軸);近期標示 1Q26 1.77、2Q26 1.44、3Q26 1.64,3Q26 Booking 約 1,650 百萬美元、Shipment 約 1,000 百萬美元;2025 年各季 BB 約 1.0–1.1,3Q25 1.01,4Q25 1.33

原始內容

Advantech (2395 TT)

Target price: TWD750.00 (from TWD700.00)

Shareprice(4Nov):TWD629.00 | Up/downside:+19.2%

3Q26 results: positive tone towards 2027

  • Up-cycle will last into 2027, with limited early pull-in shipments in 2026
  • Key growth drivers in 2026 include ASP hike and fast Edge AI growth
  • Reaffirming our Outperform (2) rating; raising 12-month TP to TWD750

What's new: We update our view on Advantech after 3Q26 results (released on 4 November).

What's the impact: 3Q26 results beat. Advantech's 3Q26 earnings of TWD6.2bn (EPS: TWD7.15) beat our estimate and BBG consensus by 26% and 28%, respectively, driven by record-high OPM (20.9%) and betterthan-expected non-ops (gains from its Japan plant's asset disposal). However, GM fell 1pp QoQ to 36.7%, mainly due to raw-material cost inflation. Management said CPU, memory and other component costs rose to 70% (vs. 30% previously). Although the company could pass on higher costs, it couldn't maintain its blended GM on an incremental sales.

Business update. Looking ahead, Advantech remains positive on its 4Q26 and 2027 outlook, supported by a c.USD2.5bn order backlog and a 3Q26 B/B ratio of 1.64 (vs. 1.6 in October). Management said cost-inflation-driven demand pull-ins were limited in 9M26, but order visibility has extended as clients seek greater allocations. Advantech sees AI infrastructure, semiconductors, factory automation and medical equipment as key growth drivers, with shipments in these applications expected to grow c.15% YoY in 2026E and into 2027E, based on our forecasts. Edge AI remains its fastest-growing application: its revenue contribution rose to 24.5% in 9M26, with c.109% YoY growth, vs. 22.5% in 1H26 and the company's c.30% target for 2026. Growth has been driven mainly by higher ASPs, but we expect unit growth to become the primary driver in 2027E as ASPs lap the increase in 2026 already. In the near term, while management guides its revenue would decrease by single-digit % QoQ due to fewer working days over Christmas holiday period in 4Q26, but we believe this is too conservative. We expect 4Q26E revenue to be broadly flat QoQ, as a solid backlog is on hand. We also expect gross margin to remain similar to 3Q26 amid ongoing cost inflation. Management reported ASP increases of 1020% for CPUs and 15-20% for PCBs, while SSD and memory prices have been relatively stable recently. We expect shortages to ease gradually, particularly for memory, but to persist for CPUs and CCLs.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 7-22% to reflect Advantech's 3Q26 results. We reaffirm our Outperform (2) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD750 (from TWD700), based on a lower PER of 26x (prior: 30x; slightly higher than the mid-point of its past-3-year range of 2037x), as we are closer to the end of the up-cycle, and applied to our 1-year forward EPS. Key downside risk: slower-than-expected demand recovery.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 10-17% above the consensus, likely due to our more bullish outlook on Advantech's revenue.

5

4

3

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 2.9 17.4 17.5
Net profit change 7.8 22.4 22.9
Core EPS (FD) change 7.4 22.0 22.4

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 273.50-740.00
Market cap (USDbn) 16.64
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 65.08
Shares outstanding (m) 869
Major shareholder AsusTek Computer Inc. (14.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 111,304 147,931 159,395
Operating profit (m) 21,932 29,744 32,129
Net profit (m) 19,369 25,021 26,939
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 22.288 28.792 30.999
EPS change (%) 82.0 29.2 7.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 9.8 16.6 10.0
PER (x) 28.2 21.8 20.3
Dividend yield (%) 1.8 1.9 2.1
DPS 11.2 12.0 13.0
PBR (x) 9.8 7.7 6.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.3 17.2 15.5
ROE (%) 34.9 39.4 33.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Advantech: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecast revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 108,139 111,304 105,375 125,982 147,931 126,075 135,599 159,395 139,286
Diff (%) 2.9% 5.6% 17.4% 17.3% 17.5% 14.4%
Gross margin (%) 38.0% 37.5% 38.0% 37.7% 37.8% 38.5% 38.8% 38.4% 38.6%
Operating profit 21,047 21,932 20,269 24,662 29,744 25,248 26,516 32,129 29,213
Operating margin (%) 19.5% 19.7% 19.2% 19.6% 20.1% 20.0% 19.6% 20.2% 21.0%
Net profit 17,969 19,369 17,642 20,441 25,021 21,458 21,925 26,939 24,489
EPS (TWD) 20.75 22.29 20.30 23.61 28.79 24.69 25.32 31.00 28.18
Diff (%) 7.4% 9.8% 22.0% 16.6% 22.4% 10.0%

Source: Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Advantech: quarterly and annual P&L statement

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q 2026E - 2Q 2026E - 3Q 2026E - 4QE 2027E - 1QE 2027E - 2QE 2027E - 3QE 2027E - 4QE 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net revenue 20,385 26,126 32,440 32,353 33,884 36,841 38,916 38,289 70,882 111,304 147,931 159,395
COGS -12,405 -16,281 -20,544 -20,377 -21,266 -22,907 -24,141 -23,671 -42,685 -69,608 -91,984 -98,225
Gross profit 7,980 9,845 11,896 11,975 12,619 13,934 14,775 14,619 28,198 41,696 55,947 61,170
Operating costs -4,251 -4,718 -5,101 -5,694 -6,133 -6,521 -6,771 -6,777 -16,631 -19,765 -26,203 -29,042
Operating profit 3,728 5,127 6,795 6,281 6,485 7,413 8,004 7,841 11,567 21,932 29,744 32,129
Non-operating profit 340 463 1,106 325 340 370 385 362 1,123 2,233 1,456 1,470
Pre-tax profit 4,068 5,590 7,901 6,606 6,825 7,783 8,389 8,203 12,690 24,165 31,200 33,598
Income taxes -750 -1,087 -1,700 -1,321 -1,365 -1,557 -1,678 -1,641 -2,097 -4,796 -6,179 -6,659
Net profit 3,334 4,518 6,218 5,299 5,476 6,242 6,726 6,578 10,593 19,369 25,021 26,939
EPS (TWD) 3.85 5.20 7.15 6.10 6.30 7.18 7.74 7.57 12.24 22.29 28.79 31.00
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 39.1% 37.7% 36.7% 37.0% 37.2% 37.8% 38.0% 38.2% 39.8% 37.5% 37.8% 38.4%
Operating margin 18.3% 19.6% 20.9% 19.4% 19.1% 20.1% 20.6% 20.5% 16.3% 19.7% 20.1% 20.2%
Pre-tax margin 20.0% 21.4% 24.4% 20.4% 20.1% 21.1% 21.6% 21.4% 17.9% 21.7% 21.1% 21.1%
Net margin 16.4% 17.3% 19.2% 16.4% 16.2% 16.9% 17.3% 17.2% 14.9% 17.4% 16.9% 16.9%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 17% 46% 83% 81% 66% 41% 20% 18% 19% 57% 33% 8%
Gross profit 14% 38% 72% 68% 58% 42% 24% 22% 16% 48% 34% 9%
Operating profit 28% 64% 151% 123% 74% 45% 18% 25% 28% 90% 36% 8%
Pre-tax profit 26% 124% 141% 79% 68% 39% 6% 24% 16% 90% 29% 8%
Net profit 22% 127% 125% 71% 64% 38% 8% 24% 18% 83% 29% 8%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 14% 28% 24% 0% 5% 9% 6% -2%
Gross profit 12% 23% 21% 1% 5% 10% 6% -1%
Operating profit 33% 38% 33% -8% 3% 14% 8% -2%
Pre-tax profit 11% 37% 41% -16% 3% 14% 8% -2%
Net profit 7% 36% 38% -15% 3% 14% 8% -2%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Advantech: 3Q26 results highlights

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff % Consensus Diff %
Revenues 32,440 24% 83% 30,130 8% 28,945 12%
Gross profit 11,896 21% 72% 11,333 5% 10,877 9%
Gross margin (%) 36.7% 37.6% 37.6%
Operating profit 6,795 33% 151% 5,940 14% 5,628 21%
Operating margin (%) 20.9% 19.7% 19.4%
Pre-tax profit 7,901 41% 141% 6,165 28% 5,927 33%
Net profit 6,218 38% 125% 4,947 26% 4,842 28%
EPS (TWD) 7.15 38% 125% 5.71 26% 5.59 28%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Advantech: 1-year forward PER

Advantech: B/B ratio

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Embedded Design-in sales YoY% 11.6 31.1 (0.7) (14.2) 7.3 27.7 10.5 13.2
Industrial IoTsalesYoY% 16.0 2.3 (17.4) 4.5 27.4 35.5 10.1 4.0
Service IoT sales YoY% 20.2 26.7 (6.1) (6.7) 31.3 (25.5) 14.0 10.2

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Embedded Design-in 26,652 34,940 34,683 29,747 31,927 40,774 45,051 50,993
Industrial IoT 19,803 20,260 16,744 17,506 22,303 30,223 33,284 34,605
Other Revenue 12,168 13,544 13,141 12,533 16,652 40,307 69,596 73,797
Total Revenue 58,622 68,745 64,568 59,786 70,882 111,304 147,931 159,395
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (36,490) (42,632) (38,406) (35,410) (42,685) (69,608) (91,984) (98,225)
SG&A (8,057) (8,762) (9,172) (9,866) (10,835) (12,743) (17,336) (18,763)
Other op.expenses (4,270) (4,768) (4,830) (5,416) (5,795) (7,021) (8,866) (10,279)
Operating profit 9,804 12,583 12,160 9,094 11,567 21,932 29,744 32,129
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 12 16 230 294 252 218 217 217
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 229 587 377 934 870 2,015 1,239 1,253
Pre-tax profit 10,045 13,187 12,767 10,322 12,690 24,165 31,200 33,598
Tax (1,948) (2,700) (2,477) (2,086) (2,189) (4,858) (6,240) (6,720)
Min. int./pref. div./others (57) 15 48 117 92 61 61 61
Net profit (reported) 8,040 10,501 10,338 8,352 10,593 19,369 25,021 26,939
Net profit (adjusted) 8,040 10,501 10,338 8,352 10,593 19,369 25,021 26,939
EPS (reported)(TWD) 10.390 13.500 12.052 9.673 12.243 22.288 28.792 30.999
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 10.390 13.500 12.052 9.673 12.243 22.288 28.792 30.999
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 10.390 13.500 12.052 9.673 12.243 22.288 28.792 30.999
DPS (TWD) 7.127 8.071 10.080 9.449 8.405 11.200 12.000 13.000
EBIT 9,804 12,583 12,160 9,094 11,567 21,932 29,744 32,129
EBITDA 10,901 13,640 13,247 10,188 12,777 22,977 30,920 33,478

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 10,045 13,187 12,767 10,322 12,690 24,165 31,200 33,598
Depreciation and amortisation 1,097 1,057 1,086 1,094 1,210 1,045 1,176 1,350
Tax paid (1,948) (2,700) (2,477) (2,086) (2,189) (4,858) (6,240) (6,720)
Change in working capital (3,061) (2,727) 5,006 (596) (906) (7,933) (7,422) (2,253)
Other operational CF items 4,541 915 (6,717) 1,778 (901) (95) (71) (96)
Cash flow from operations 10,674 9,731 9,665 10,511 9,903 12,324 18,642 25,879
Capex (1,036) (1,353) (1,236) (1,505) (2,837) (2,337) (3,107) (3,347)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (354) (55) (1,708) 764 (1,050) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (2,908) (1,703) 645 666 (342) 1 1 1
Cash flow from investing (4,298) (3,111) (2,299) (75) (4,228) (2,336) (3,106) (3,346)
Change in debt 91 401 (276) (111) (61) 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (5,506) (6,236) (7,800) (8,158) (7,259) (9,690) (10,429) (11,298)
Other financing CF items (148) 187 12 477 (526) 506 524 545
Cash flow from financing (5,564) (5,649) (8,064) (7,792) (7,846) (9,184) (9,905) (10,753)
Forex effect/others (488) 886 (46) 357 (136) 0 0 0
Change in cash 324 1,857 (744) 3,000 (2,308) 804 5,632 11,780
Free cash flow 9,638 8,378 8,429 9,005 7,066 9,987 15,536 22,531

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 11,426 15,381 21,200 20,456 19,194 10,584 16,216 27,996
Inventory 12,517 14,008 9,804 10,554 11,835 18,255 24,123 25,760
Accounts receivable 10,346 11,190 9,345 10,203 10,614 16,345 21,723 23,407
Other current assets 832 1,168 1,037 986 853 853 853 853
Total current assets 35,121 41,747 41,386 42,200 42,496 46,036 62,915 78,015
Fixed assets 10,247 11,039 11,326 12,244 14,452 15,744 17,675 19,673
Goodwill & intangibles 2,665 2,789 2,750 2,814 2,735 2,735 2,735 2,735
Other non-current assets 9,795 10,809 13,594 14,484 16,036 16,314 16,657 17,009
Total assets 57,828 66,385 69,056 71,742 75,718 80,830 99,982 117,432
Short-term debt 256 531 238 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 7,487 7,126 6,089 6,911 7,681 11,898 15,723 16,789
Other current liabilities 8,761 10,823 9,700 8,658 8,837 8,760 8,760 8,760
Total current liabilities 16,504 18,481 16,027 15,569 16,517 20,657 24,482 25,549
Long-term debt 0 122 0 156 150 150 150 150
Other non-current liabilities 2,962 3,499 4,220 4,219 4,001 4,001 4,001 4,001
Total liabilities 19,465 22,101 20,247 19,945 20,668 24,808 28,633 29,700
Share capital 7,738 7,778 8,578 8,634 8,652 8,690 8,690 8,690
Reserves/R.E./others 30,114 36,036 39,883 42,794 46,296 47,229 62,557 78,940
Shareholders' equity 37,853 43,815 48,461 51,428 54,947 55,920 71,247 87,630
Minority interests 510 469 348 369 102 102 102 102
Total equity & liabilities 57,828 66,385 69,056 71,742 75,718 80,830 99,982 117,432
EV 535,970 532,371 526,016 526,698 527,688 536,298 530,666 518,886
Net debt/(cash) (11,170) (14,728) (20,962) (20,300) (19,044) (10,434) (16,066) (27,846)
BVPS (TWD) 48.916 56.328 56.496 59.563 63.509 64.346 81.983 100.835

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 14.7 17.3 (6.1) (7.4) 18.6 57.0 32.9 7.7
EBITDA (YoY) 9.1 25.1 (2.9) (23.1) 25.4 79.8 34.6 8.3
Operating profit (YoY) 8.6 28.3 (3.4) (25.2) 27.2 89.6 35.6 8.0
Net profit (YoY) 10.3 30.6 (1.6) (19.2) 26.8 82.9 29.2 7.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 10.0 29.9 (10.7) (19.7) 26.6 82.0 29.2 7.7
Gross-profit margin 37.8 38.0 40.5 40.8 39.8 37.5 37.8 38.4
EBITDA margin 18.6 19.8 20.5 17.0 18.0 20.6 20.9 21.0
Operating-profit margin 16.7 18.3 18.8 15.2 16.3 19.7 20.1 20.2
Net profit margin 13.7 15.3 16.0 14.0 14.9 17.4 16.9 16.9
ROAE 22.3 25.7 22.4 16.7 19.9 34.9 39.4 33.9
ROAA 14.9 16.9 15.3 11.9 14.4 24.7 27.7 24.8
ROCE 26.6 30.1 25.9 18.0 21.6 39.4 46.6 40.3
ROIC 32.1 35.3 34.1 24.5 28.4 43.0 47.2 44.6
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 19.4 20.5 19.4 20.2 17.3 20.1 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 59.7 57.2 58.0 59.7 53.6 44.2 47.0 51.7
Current ratio (x) 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 3.1
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 75.5 77.7 74.7 78.4 86.9 91.5 53.8 45.2
Free cash flow yield 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.8 4.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1981 and listed in 1999, Advantech is the largest industrial PC (IPC) maker worldwide in terms of embedded board/system sales, followed by the company's main competitors, Germany-based Kontron and US-based Radisys. The company mainly provides embedded computing boards, chassis, industrial computers, applied computers and design-in services. The businesses are categorised into 4 segments: Embedded design-in, Industrial IoT, Service IoT, and Global services.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 1 of regulations For 2026, Advantech Advantech's current board consists of nine directors, with three independent directors. To effectively enhance corporate governance, the company's constitution specifies that its number independent directors cannot be less than three. This regulation is even stricter than the set by the government. The backgrounds of its three independent directors are diversified, with expertise in technology, finance, business, management and accounting. We see it as a positive factor for the board's quality. declared a DPS of TWD11.20 to be paid out of the 2025 results,
G Capital management 2 representing a 92% payout ratio. The payout ratio has been quite stable in the past few years and in the range of 70-84%. According to Advantech's dividend policy, management may consider paying out an additional TWD2 stock dividend in the next three years, if the business operation has achieved the company's targets. Indeed, Advantech has executed this policy in 2014, 2017, 2020 and 2023. The IPC market growth has been stable at 5-10% per year recently. This makes Advantech eager to develop its WISW-PaaS 3.0 platform to integrate its hardware business with software. By doing so, the company believes it can lift its profit margins by creating additional value via its total solutions offerings. Besides, Advantech aims to acquire partial stakes in its competitors in order to propel the communication standardisation for the AIoT platform (eg, Wise-PaaS 3.0). We believe these investments will be long-term value-accretive to investors.
S Related party & transaction 3 In 2010, Advantech system, suppliers substances prohibited Based on the procurement onsite inspections the vendors' manufacturing Revenue from related parties was 0.2% of total 2025 revenue, while purchases and other operating costs from related parties were 0.6% of total cost of sales. We see limited risk from these related-party transactions given their small contribution and the company's disclosure that transactions were generally conducted under normal pricing and commercial terms. Separately, Advantech has sizable intra-group transactions with its subsidiaries due to its global manufacturing and sales structure. In 2025, ANA remained the parent company's largest disclosed intra-group sales counterparty, while AKMC remained a major manufacturing counterparty. These intra-group transactions are eliminated upon consolidation, and disclosed transaction terms showed no significant difference from those with third parties. We therefore see limited governance risk from related-party transactions based on current disclosures. established its 'green supply management system'. In its management must promise and guarantee that their products will not contain hazardous by Advantech. procedure within the management system, Advantech conducts at high-risk suppliers on its Preferred Vendor List (PVL). Inspection includes processes, quality, environmental safety and health, labour
Supplychain management 1 conditions, and CSR management. Besides, Advantech strictly incorporates environmental protection principles in its supplier management mechanism. The company has incorporated the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA) management system, demanding that its suppliers promote CSR. To date, Advantech's evaluation index management for all suppliers has included critical CSR indices such as RoHS (HSF), QC080000, ISO14001, OHSAS18001 (ISO 45001), and supplier localisation regulated by the RBA. Overall, we see that Advantech has created a systematic platform to regulate and manage its supply chain to meet ethical and environmental standards.
S Datasecurity 2 Based on Advantech's organisation and information policy, it will establish a dedicated information security appropriate management procedures to ensure confidentiality and integrity, and protect the privacy of users and customer data. The major measures include: 1) an appropriate IT backup mechanism, and 2) third-party informationsecuritycertificationsandregularexternal inspections. Advantech will implement an information security management system in accordance with the requirements of the ISO / IEC 27001: 2013 standards. Both the Linkou and Kunshan plants have acquired the ISO 27001 certification.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 4 Nov 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company