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報告_Daiwa_智原3035_3Q26_20261027

更新 2026-10-28

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_智原3035_3Q26_20261027_original.pdf

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報告_Daiwa_智原3035_3Q26_20261027_001.png 25KB 真資料圖 股價走勢小圖(<40KB,僅確認為股價圖,未列入 lib 嵌圖)
報告_Daiwa_智原3035_3Q26_20261027_002.png 19KB 真資料圖 智原各季營收組合 100% 堆疊柱狀圖,1Q20–4Q27E,分 IP/NRE/MP 三色,MP 約占 75–85%,2026 起 3Q26 以後為預估(財務圖,不嵌 lib)
報告_Daiwa_智原3035_3Q26_20261027_003.png 40KB 真資料圖 股價(TWD)與 4 季 forward P/E 倍數帶(10x–35x)疊圖,橫軸 2010 年 1 月至 2027 年,來源標示「Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts」(財務圖,不嵌 lib)

原始內容

Faraday Technology (3035 TT)

Target price: TWD220.00 (from TWD220.00)

Shareprice(27Oct):TWD191.50 | Up/downside:+14.9%

Turnaround confirmed (II)

  • 3Q26 results a mixed bag; 4Q26 guidance broadly intact
  • Firing on all cylinders into 2027 after near-term hiccups
  • Reiterating our Buy (1) call and 12M TP of TWD220

What's new: Faraday released a mixed set of results and guidance on 27 October. 3Q26 core results missed consensus on an unfavourable product mix and higher opex, while 4Q26 guidance was broadly intact on delayed MCU business rebalancing. Regardless of the near-term hiccup, management expects its 3 product lines of mass-production (MP), IP and non-recurrent engineering (NRE) to fire on all cylinders into 2027 for a double-digit % YoY revenue growth. This concurs with our turnaround story for the counter, and we reiterate our Buy (1) rating and 12M TP of TWD220.

What's the impact: Results mixed, guidance intact. Faraday's 3Q26 net profit came in at TWD279m, 9% above our estimate and beating consensus by a meaningful 38%. Despite the beat, dynamics were mixed (table on p.2). Core operations missed despite a higher top line, which was spurred by MP on stronger-than-expected MCU sales from its 50%-owned Artery (6907 TT, not rated) for a lower gross margin (GM) due to an unfavourable revenue mix as MP carries a lower GM than the other 2 lines. Higher opex, as a result of salary hikes and employee bonuses, further pressured core operations with operating profit missing our/consensus estimates by 36%/11%, but non-operating gains from marked-to-market investments more than offset the miss. Guidance calls for a roughly flat 4Q26 top line with a 45% GM, broadly in line with our expectation.

Firing on all cylinders across all 3 lines. In our previous note, we expected rebalancing in the MCU business due to demand pull-in on price hikes and supply chain uncertainties. It failed to happen in 3Q26 thanks to early pull-in of OSAT capacity support, thus pushing back the rebalancing to 4Q26 - a key reason why top line was guided to be flat despite the other 2 lines of IP and NRE growing QoQ. That said, management expects the MCU business to return to a growth track in 2027 after the near-term hiccup. Its delayed advanced packaging (AP) ramp on design complexity and supply constraint looks set to accelerate in 2027 on OSAT capacity improvement which, together with a milestone of 2nm/GAA design-win for a cloud ASIC, should add to upside for the NRE and MP business next year. All in, we lower our 2026-27E EPS by 9-13% to factor in the higher opex.

What we recommend: Despite our forecast revisions, we keep our 12M TP for Faraday unchanged at TWD220 as we maintain our 4-quarter forward PER target of 37x. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating with key downside risks of silicon inflation and geopolitical overhangs leading to global inflation and prolonging a non-AI recovery.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 6-9% below the consensus forecasts likely on the street's lower opex assumptions.

3

2

1

(unchanged)

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sam Weng (886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 3.6 3.6 5.6
Net profit change (9.1) (12.9) (0.4)
Core EPS (FD) change (9.1) (12.9) (0.4)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 139.00-233.00
Market cap (USDbn) 1.53
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 25.55
Shares outstanding (m) 261
Major shareholder UMC (13.8%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 13,193 16,024 18,391
Operating profit (m) 942 2,263 3,083
Net profit (m) 808 1,532 2,164
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 3.103 5.878 8.304
EPS change (%) 10.5 89.4 41.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (6.4) (5.7) (8.6)
PER (x) 61.7 32.6 23.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.9 1.0 2.1
DPS 1.8 2.0 4.0
PBR (x) 3.7 3.4 3.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 11.5 8.6
ROE (%) 6.1 10.8 14.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Faraday: quarterly P&L estimates and forecasts

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 2,589 3,314 3,664 3,627 3,580 3,782 4,256 4,406 17,993 13,193 16,024 18,391
COGS -1,364 -1,815 -2,107 -1,996 -1,969 -2,038 -2,280 -2,374 -13,135 -7,282 -8,662 -9,970
Gross profit 1,224 1,499 1,557 1,631 1,611 1,744 1,976 2,032 4,857 5,911 7,362 8,420
Opex 1,129 1,228 1,343 1,270 1,260 1,267 1,281 1,291 4,305 4,969 5,099 5,337
Operating profit 96 271 214 361 350 477 695 741 552 942 2,263 3,083
Non-op gains (losses) 83 111 266 21 32 35 36 36 449 481 139 168
Pretax profit 179 382 480 382 382 512 731 777 1,002 1,424 2,402 3,251
Income taxes & MI -75 -184 -202 -155 -84 -113 -161 -171 -270 -615 -528 -1,088
Net profit 104 198 279 227 227 306 486 513 731 808 1,532 2,164
EPS (TWD, fully diluted) 0.40 0.76 1.07 0.87 0.87 1.17 1.87 1.97 2.81 3.10 5.88 8.30
Revenue mix*
MP 63% 73% 79% 77% 77% 75% 76% 76% 79% 74% 76% 76%
NRE 21% 14% 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 13% 13% 11% 11%
IP 16% 13% 12% 12% 12% 14% 13% 13% 8% 13% 13% 12%
Margin
Gross 47.3% 45.2% 42.5% 45.0% 45.0% 46.1% 46.4% 46.1% 27.0% 44.8% 45.9% 45.8%
Opex 43.6% 37.1% 36.7% 35.0% 35.2% 33.5% 30.1% 29.3% 23.9% 37.7% 31.8% 29.0%
Operating 3.7% 8.2% 5.9% 10.0% 9.8% 12.6% 16.3% 16.8% 3.1% 7.1% 14.1% 16.8%
Pretax 6.9% 11.5% 13.1% 10.5% 10.7% 13.5% 17.2% 17.6% 5.6% 10.8% 15.0% 17.7%
Net 4.0% 6.0% 7.6% 6.3% 6.3% 8.1% 11.4% 11.6% 4.1% 6.1% 9.6% 11.8%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue -8% 28% 11% -1% -1% 6% 13% 4%
Gross profit 3% 22% 4% 5% -1% 8% 13% 3%
Operating profit 19% 182% -21% 69% -3% 36% 46% 7%
Net profit -50% 90% 41% -19% 0% 35% 59% 5%
EPS (FD) -50% 90% 41% -19% 0% 35% 59% 5%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue -65% -27% 13% 29% 38% 14% 16% 21% 63% -27% 21% 15%
Gross profit -19% 37% 45% 38% 32% 16% 27% 25% -4% 22% 25% 14%
Operating profit -74% 324% nm 349% 266% 76% 224% 105% -48% 71% 140% 36%
Net profit -70% 666% 84% 10% 118% 54% 74% 126% -30% 11% 89% 41%
EPS (FD) -70% 667% 84% 10% 118% 54% 74% 126% -31% 11% 89% 41%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * MP = mass-production, which includes HBM consigned revenue in 1H25, thus deflating organic GM; NRE = non-recurrent engineering; IP = intellectual property

Faraday: 3Q26 results and 4Q26 guidance check

TWDm 3Q26 - Actual 3Q26 - Daiwa 3Q26 - Consensus 3Q26 - Daiwa Variance Growth - Consensus Variance Growth - QoQ Variance Growth - YoY 4Q26E - Guidance 4Q26E - Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 3,664 3,194 3,235 15% 13% 11% 13% c.flat QoQ c.flat at TWD3.6bn
MP 2,907 2,320 na 25% na 20% 25%
NRE 448 425 na 5% na -1% -9%
IP 309 449 na -31% na -29% -25%
Gross profit 1,557 1,448 1,446 8% 8% 4% 45% GM c.45% GM = 45%
Opex 1,343 1,115 1,206 20% 11% 9% 30% opex down single-digit % QoQ opex down 9% QoQ
Operating profit 214 333 240 -36% -11% -21% 442%
Pretax profit 480 354 290 36% 66% 26% 126%
Net profit 279 255 202 9% 38% 41% 84%
FD EPS (TWD) 1.07 0.98 0.78 9% 38% 41% 84%
Margin
Gross 42.5% 45.3% 44.7% -2.8% -2.2%
Operating 5.8% 10.4% 7.4% -4.6% -1.6%
Net 7.6% 8.0% 6.2% -0.4% 1.4%
Revenue mix*
IP 8% 14%
NRE 12% 13%
MP 79% 73%

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * IP = intellectual property, NRE = non-recurrent engineering, MP = mass-production

Faraday: revenue mix by business

Faraday: 4-quarter forward PER band

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * IP = intellectual property, NRE = non-recurrent engineering, MP = mass-production

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
IP revenue growth (%) 26.5 26.4 4.5 11.3 (2.8) 15.0 18.1 11.3
NRE revenue growth (%) 32.4 22.1 0.2 30.4 1.7 (27.1) 5.7 18.1
MP revenue growth (%) 56.3 78.2 (11.6) (17.9) 95.6 (31.1) 24.7 14.9

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
NRE 1,410 1,721 1,725 2,250 2,289 1,669 1,765 2,083
MP 5,614 10,002 8,839 7,255 14,188 9,780 12,199 14,013
Other Revenue 1,062 1,342 1,402 1,560 1,516 1,744 2,061 2,294
Total Revenue 8,085 13,065 11,966 11,065 17,993 13,193 16,024 18,391
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (3,995) (6,690) (6,658) (6,013) (13,135) (7,282) (8,662) (9,970)
SG&A (726) (1,018) (983) (989) (1,114) (1,405) (1,449) (1,502)
Other op.expenses (1,962) (2,436) (2,369) (2,991) (3,191) (3,564) (3,650) (3,835)
Operating profit 1,402 2,921 1,956 1,071 552 942 2,263 3,083
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 7 27 52 100 83 88 99 128
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 93 109 63 173 366 394 40 40
Pre-tax profit 1,502 3,057 2,070 1,343 1,002 1,424 2,402 3,251
Tax (212) (547) (509) (271) (229) (333) (528) (715)
Min. int./pref. div./others (134) (56) 28 (30) (42) (283) (342) (372)
Net profit (reported) 1,156 2,455 1,589 1,041 731 808 1,532 2,164
Net profit (adjusted) 1,156 2,455 1,589 1,041 731 808 1,532 2,164
EPS (reported)(TWD) 4.651 9.876 6.395 4.042 2.807 3.103 5.878 8.304
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 4.651 9.876 6.395 4.042 2.807 3.103 5.878 8.304
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 4.651 9.791 6.379 3.995 2.807 3.103 5.878 8.304
DPS (TWD) 1.000 3.300 5.000 4.341 3.000 1.800 2.000 4.000
EBIT 1,402 2,921 1,956 1,071 552 942 2,263 3,083
EBITDA 1,807 3,394 2,457 1,880 1,481 2,046 3,562 4,579

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,502 3,057 2,070 1,343 1,002 1,424 2,402 3,251
Depreciation and amortisation 405 473 502 810 929 1,103 1,299 1,496
Tax paid (212) (547) (509) (271) (229) (333) (528) (715)
Change in working capital (256) (2,368) 1,487 1,331 (1,123) (846) 243 (761)
Other operational CF items 1,067 584 (543) (312) 351 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 2,506 1,200 3,007 2,901 930 1,349 3,416 3,270
Capex (41) (86) (49) (148) (162) (132) (160) (184)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (842) 1,082 (670) 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 295 (1,373) 16 (2,414) (938) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (588) (377) (704) (2,562) (1,100) (132) (160) (184)
Change in debt 0 127 (30) (70) 0 (46) (37) (29)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 3,720 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (249) (820) (1,243) (1,118) (782) (469) (521) (1,042)
Other financing CF items 49 (89) (148) (354) (50) (564) (46) (37)
Cash flow from financing (200) (782) (1,421) 2,178 (832) (1,078) (603) (1,108)
Forex effect/others (3) 69 (40) 80 (28) 0 0 0
Change in cash 1,715 110 842 2,596 (1,030) 138 2,652 1,978
Free cash flow 2,465 1,114 2,958 2,752 768 1,217 3,255 3,086

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 4,823 4,899 5,741 8,337 7,293 7,431 10,084 12,062
Inventory 1,321 3,017 1,187 1,074 955 1,439 1,409 1,869
Accounts receivable 939 1,354 1,559 1,054 1,726 1,383 2,130 1,901
Other current assets 310 485 386 560 1,227 1,227 1,227 700
Total current assets 7,392 9,754 8,873 11,024 11,201 11,480 14,849 16,533
Fixed assets 518 514 553 582 617 583 548 732
Goodwill & intangibles 505 615 683 2,115 1,761 1,099 319 20
Other non-current assets 3,621 2,629 3,309 4,609 5,354 5,354 5,354 5,354
Total assets 12,037 13,513 13,418 18,330 18,932 18,516 21,070 22,639
Short-term debt 0 127 95 448 589 71 62 54
Accounts payable 1,372 1,129 999 1,675 1,649 944 1,903 1,375
Other current liabilities 2,134 2,899 2,142 1,750 2,447 2,447 2,447 2,447
Total current liabilities 3,506 4,156 3,236 3,872 4,685 3,462 4,412 3,875
Long-term debt 0 0 0 416 228 183 146 117
Other non-current liabilities 376 388 328 569 491 600 700 1,000
Total liabilities 3,881 4,544 3,564 4,857 5,403 4,244 5,258 4,992
Share capital 2,486 2,486 2,486 2,606 2,606 2,606 2,606 2,606
Reserves/R.E./others 5,354 6,114 7,048 10,469 10,451 10,911 12,110 13,572
Shareholders' equity 7,840 8,599 9,533 13,075 13,056 13,517 14,716 16,177
Minority interests 315 369 321 399 472 755 1,097 1,470
Total equity & liabilities 12,037 13,513 13,418 18,330 18,932 18,516 21,070 22,639
EV 45,388 45,493 44,570 42,821 43,892 43,472 41,116 39,474
Net debt/(cash) (4,823) (4,772) (5,646) (7,473) (6,476) (7,178) (9,876) (11,891)
BVPS (TWD) 31.543 34.597 38.356 50.743 50.111 51.878 56.479 62.089

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 47.1 61.6 (8.4) (7.5) 62.6 (26.7) 21.5 14.8
EBITDA (YoY) 210.0 87.8 (27.6) (23.5) (21.2) 38.1 74.2 28.5
Operating profit (YoY) 840.3 108.4 (33.1) (45.3) (48.4) 70.6 140.2 36.2
Net profit (YoY) 330.6 112.3 (35.2) (34.5) (29.8) 10.5 89.4 41.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 332.1 110.5 (34.8) (37.4) (29.7) 10.5 89.4 41.3
Gross-profit margin 50.6 48.8 44.4 45.7 27.0 44.8 45.9 45.8
EBITDA margin 22.4 26.0 20.5 17.0 8.2 15.5 22.2 24.9
Operating-profit margin 17.3 22.4 16.3 9.7 3.1 7.1 14.1 16.8
Net profit margin 14.3 18.8 13.3 9.4 4.1 6.1 9.6 11.8
ROAE 16.4 29.9 17.5 9.2 5.6 6.1 10.8 14.0
ROAA 11.4 19.2 11.8 6.6 3.9 4.3 7.7 9.9
ROCE 19.3 33.9 20.5 8.8 3.9 6.5 14.8 18.2
ROIC 37.3 63.7 35.1 16.7 6.5 10.2 27.1 41.1
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 14.1 17.9 24.6 20.2 22.8 23.4 22.0 22.0
Accounts receivable (days) 36.8 32.0 44.4 43.1 28.2 43.0 40.0 40.0
Current ratio (x) 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.4 3.3 3.4 4.3
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 92.6 71.0 50.6 69.7 75.1 64.1 64.5 68.0
Free cash flow yield 4.9 2.2 5.9 5.5 1.5 2.4 6.5 6.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1993, Faraday is a hybrid design service provider offering IP and ASIC design services to fabless, foundry and system houses. It has R&D and marketing locations in the US, Japan, China, India, and Vietnam.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 2 Faraday's Board of Directors (BoD) consists of 10 members, including 4 independent directors, representing 40% of the board-significantly above the regulatory minimum of 20%. Three of the 10 directors are female, reflecting progress toward gender diversity at the board level. The roles of Chairman and President are separated, supporting stronger governance checks and balances. However, most non independent directors concurrently serve as executive managers, which may elevate concerns regarding board independence and management oversight from an ESG governance perspective.
G Capital management 1 Over the past 10 years, Faraday has kept its dividend payout ratio at above 70%most of the time, in spite of an up or down cycle. As an IC design service company without capex for manufacturing fabs, Faraday's high dividend payout is appropriate, in our view.
Related party & transaction 1 UMC, which is Faraday's largest shareholder, is Faraday's major foundry for its turnkey business. For IC design service companies, a close relationship with foundries is essential since their design should build on a foundry's process node and their turnkey businesses also require a foundry's capacity support. UMC's support offers Faraday a competitive advantage, in our view. Faraday has developed many standard cell and I/O libraries for UMC, covering logic and mixed-signal specialty processes across 0.5μ to 22nm.
S Supplychain management 1 Faraday has set several evaluation standards for its existing and new suppliers and it requires all suppliers to get ISO9001 and ISO14001 certifications for quality and environmental management. In 2024, 100% of its wafer, packaging and testing providers had ISO9001 and ISO14001 certifications. In addition, Faraday also has on-site audits (quality system and process quality audit, CSR evaluation and environment management system) for its suppliers with a mid- to-long term target of conducting annual onsite audits for 100% of its suppliers.
E Water&wastewater management 1 As an IC design service company, Faraday outsources its manufacturing and thus has no own production sites. As such, Faraday's water use is primarily for general operations, not for production. Faraday continues to conduct several water reduction measures to manage water usage.
E materials management Waste & hazardous 1 Faraday has established a green supply chain in accordance with the EU Directive on the Restriction of the Use of Certain Hazardous Substances in Electrical and Electronic Equipment (RoHS) and with the EU Chemicals Policy (REACH). Faraday has a mid-to-long term target of carefully evaluating and selecting raw materials with low hazard levels to comply with the Hazardous Substance-Free Product Standard. All of its packaging materials are 100% lead-free and halogen-free.
E GHGemissions 1 With Faraday's energy saving measures, it reduced the GHG emissions intensity gradually. As an IC design service company without onsite production, Faraday's GHG emissions are much lower than other semiconductor manufacturing companies. Faraday's low power design also helps reduce GHG emissions. In 2019, Faraday completed the development of its ultra-low power consumption 22nm IP solution.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 10 Feb 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company