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原始內容
citivelocity.com
11 Aug 2026 07:28:24 ET │ 11 pages
Micro-Star (2377.TW)
2Q26 Beat on Margin from Inflated Material Cost Pass-Through
CITI'S TAKE
MSI reported 2Q26 net profit of NT$3.0bn (-12% QoQ/+123% YoY) significantly beat Citi/cons forecasts by 90%/44%, mainly on strongerthan-expected margins and non-op gains. 2Q26 GPM of 16.0% (+1.0ppt QoQ/+4.9ppts YoY) came in well above Citi/cons estimates, primarily reflecting the pass-through of rising memory-driven product ASPs while MSI still benefits from lower-cost inventory procured earlier. Nonoperating income of NT$352mn also provided an additional boost to the bottom line. Looking ahead, we expect memory shortages and elevated ASPs to constrain the company's shipment volume, though pricing should remain solid. We are Neutral on MSI, as we believe the recent share price strength has reflected the robust margin performance. We expect to turn more positive only when PC demand recovers or the server business provides a more substantial earnings contribution.
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Flash |
Neutral
Price (11 Aug 26 13:30)
NT$154.00
Target price
NT$118.00
Expected share price return
-23.4%
Expected dividend yield
2.7%
Expected total return
-20.6%
Market Cap
NT$130,108M US$4,034M
Michael Hung AC
+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
Figure 1. Mol - <24o earnings review
2026
Citi est. Diff (%)
52,535
- 5%
6,308
1,948
7,969
3,281
3,633
26%
68%
2,021
80%
Figure 1. MSI - 2Q26 earnings review
1Q26
Actual
56,257
8,441
3,876
4,133
3,417
QoQ
(%)
-11%
-6%
-15%
-12%
-12%
2Q25
Actual
61,317
6,815
2,064
1,910
1,343
YoY
(%)
-19%
17%
59%
90%
123%
2026
BBG
Diff (%)
52,897
7,260
2,603
2,686
2,083
-6%
10%
26%
35%
44%
| 3.55 | 90% 4.04 -12% | 90% 4.04 -12% | 90% 4.04 -12% | 1.59 | 123% | 2.47 | 44% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.0% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 1.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% |
| 6.6% | 2.9% | 6.9% | -0.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| 6.0% | 3.0% | 6.1% | -0.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
(NT$ mn)
Revenue
Gross profits
Operating profits
Pretax earnings
Net income
EPS (NT$)
Magins (%)
Gross margin
Operaing margin
Net margin
€ 2026 Citicroun Ine No rodictribution without Citigroun'e writton normiccion
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg consensus
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Micro-Star
Valuation
Our target price of NT$118 is based on c.12x 2026E EPS, below the stock's five-year average forward 12-month PE. This valuation reflects the earnings downside risks from muted PC demand and margin pressure from soaring component costs, while accounting for the time required for the server business to achieve meaningful scale.
Risks
Key upside risks that could cause MSI's shares to trade above our target price include: 1) a sharper-than-expected recovery in high-end gaming demand; and 2) faster-than-anticipated revenue contribution from the AI server segment. Key downside risks include: 1) a deeper-than-expected contraction in global PC shipments; 2) prolonged supply shortages for gaming GPUs due to Ai resource crowding; and 3) inability to pass through surging memory and CPU costs to price-sensitive consumers.
Micro-Star (2377.TW)
Analyst: Michael Hung
TWD
150
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Date
Appendix A-1
2 27-Aug -24 09:09:36
1
*235.00
180.00
12-May-25 08:46:00