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原始內容
(RIC: 3023.1W, BB: 3023 11)
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Prepared for Kevin Lu
23 Jul 2026 09:19:10 ET │ 13 pages
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Sinbon (3023.TW)
2Q26 Earnings Below on Higher Opex; 2H26E Growth Outlook Remains Solid
CITI'S TAKE
Sinbon's 2Q26 sales were in-line, but net profits missed our/BBG estimates by 7%/5% owing to higher opex from salary hike, freight, and new product investments. GPM remained stable q/q at 24.5%, supported by a higher industrial contribution, although a growing mix of lower margin auto and semi cabinet assembly sales limited margin expansion. We expect 2H26 outlook to remain solid with accelerating sales growth +24% y/y, driven by strong auto and industrial demand, and a green energy recovery. Humanoid, drone and LEO programs also continue to progress. We lower 2026-2028 EPS 1-5% but maintain Buy with TP NT$370 (23x NTM P/E), supported by Sinbon's diversified growth profile and emerging business opportunity.
2Q26 sales in-line; earnings miss driven by higher opex -Sinbon reported 2Q26 sales of NT$9.0bn that rose 17% y/y broadly in-line with our/BBG estimates. GPM was stable q/q at 24.5%, in-line with our estimates, helped by higher contributions from industrial applications, offsetting the increasing mix of lower margin auto and semi cabinet assembly. OPM of 10.4% missed our/BBG forecast owing to salary hike, higher logistics expenses and upfront investments in new product R&D. All in, net profits of NT$903mn grew 19% y/y, missing our/BBG estimates 5-7%.
2H26E growth outlook remains solid -We expect Sinbon to show accelerating sales growth in 2H26E, rising 24% y/y, bolstered by strong sales from auto (solid hybrid car demand), industrial (particularly in semi-related applications) and a recovery in green energy (helped by a low base). Given the sales mix, we expect 2H26E GPM to remain stable at 24.6% and OPM at 10.3%.
Humanoid, drone, and LEO projects continue to ramp -In humanoid robots, Sinbon expects sales contributions of NT$0.5bn in 2026E with Figure AI accounting the most, and potentially rise to NT$1bn in 2027E. Separately, Sinbon is currently producing ~20 drone wiring sets per week and expects production to increase to ~80 sets per week by end-2026E. For LEO applications, Sinbon continues to develop products for satellites, launch vehicles, and ground station receivers.
(continued next page)
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | DilutedEPS (NT$) | EPSgrowth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 3,529 | 14.7 | 7.1 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 24.3 | 3.4 |
| 2025A | 3,125 | 13.02 | -11.5 | 23.4 | 4.5 | 19.8 | 3.3 |
| 2026E | 3,542 | 14.75 | 13.3 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 19.7 | 3.4 |
| 2027E | 4,117 | 17.15 | 16.2 | 17.8 | 3.4 | 20 | 3.9 |
| 2028E | 4,562 | 19 | 10.8 | 16 | 2.9 | 19.7 | 4.4 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (23 Jul 26 13:30)
NT$304.50
Target price
NT$370.00
Expected share price return
21.5%
Expected dividend yield
3.4%
Expected total return
24.9%
Market Cap
NT$73,101M
US$2,256M
Price Performance (RIC: 3023.TW, BB: 3023 TT)
Angela Hsu AC
+886-2-8726-9083 angela.hc.hsu@citi.com
Prepared for Kevin Lu
| 3023.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price:NT$304.50; TP: NT$370.00; Market Cap: NT$73,101m; Recomm:Buy | Price:NT$304.50; TP: NT$370.00; Market Cap: NT$73,101m; Recomm:Buy | Price:NT$304.50; TP: NT$370.00; Market Cap: NT$73,101m; Recomm:Buy | Price:NT$304.50; TP: NT$370.00; Market Cap: NT$73,101m; Recomm:Buy | Price:NT$304.50; TP: NT$370.00; Market Cap: NT$73,101m; Recomm:Buy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 33,088 | 31,024 | 36,047 | 40,450 | 44,349 | PE(x) | 20.7 | 23.4 | 20.6 | 17.8 | 16.0 |
| Cost of sales | -24,847 | -23,582 | -27,199 | -30,261 | -33,027 | PB(x) | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| Gross profit | 8,241 | 7,441 | 8,849 | 10,189 | 11,323 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 16.2 | 17.8 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 24.9 | 24.0 | 24.5 | 25.2 | 25.5 | FCFyield (%) | 2.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 4,203 | 3,799 | 4,422 | 5,248 | 5,849 | Dividend yield (%) | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 12.7 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 13.2 | Payout ratio (%) | 70 | 77 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Depreciation | -645 | -541 | -578 | -578 | -578 | ROE(%) | 24.3 | 19.8 | 19.7 | 20.0 | 19.7 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 3,558 | 3,257 | 3,844 | 4,670 | 5,271 | EBITDA | 4,203 | 3,799 | 4,422 | 5,248 | 5,849 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 11.9 | Working capital | -1,163 | 17 | -2,120 | -1,189 | -1,131 |
| Net interest | 34 | 14 | -36 | -39 | -33 | Other | -440 | -161 | -207 | -373 | -529 |
| Associates | 290 | 257 | 228 | 228 | 228 | Operating cashflow | 2,599 | 3,655 | 2,094 | 3,685 | 4,189 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 664 | 434 | 500 | 616 | 577 | Capex | -684 | -870 | -928 | -900 | -900 |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,546 | 3,963 | 4,534 | 5,474 | 6,042 | Net acq/disposals | 24 | -153 | -325 | -228 | -228 |
| Tax | -1,022 | -866 | -898 | -1,178 | -1,300 | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 6 | 28 | -95 | -180 | -180 | Investing cashflow | -660 | -1,024 | -1,253 | -1,128 | -1,128 |
| Reported net profit | 3,529 | 3,125 | 3,542 | 4,117 | 4,562 | Dividends paid | -2,304 | -2,461 | -2,401 | -2,469 | -1,016 |
| Net Margin (%) | 10.7 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.3 | Financing cashflow | -2,235 | -1,926 | -195 | -2,649 | -1,196 |
| CoreNPAT | 3,529 | 3,125 | 3,542 | 4,117 | 4,562 | Net change in cash | 64 | 706 | 646 | -92 | 1,866 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 1,915 | 2,785 | 1,166 | 2,785 | 3,289 |
| Reported EPS($) | 14.70 | 13.02 | 14.75 | 17.15 | 19.00 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 14.70 | 13.02 | 14.75 | 17.15 | 19.00 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 10.25 | 10.00 | 10.29 | 11.96 | 13.25 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 10.83 | 15.23 | 8.72 | 15.35 | 17.45 | ||||||
| FCFPS($) | 7.98 | 11.60 | 4.86 | 11.60 | 13.70 | ||||||
| BVPS($) | 63.65 | 67.51 | 82.13 | 89.00 | 103.77 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 1.0 | -6.2 | 16.2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 4.7 | -8.4 | 18.0 | 21.5 | 12.9 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 7.5 | -11.4 | 13.3 | 16.2 | 10.8 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 7.1 | -11.5 | 13.3 | 16.2 | 10.8 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 6,526 | 7,233 | 7,878 | 7,787 | 9,653 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 9,997 | 9,344 | 10,296 | 11,559 | 12,764 | ||||||
| Inventory | 7,435 | 7,956 | 8,521 | 9,563 | 10,547 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 3,481 | 3,809 | 4,159 | 4,482 | 4,804 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 3,197 | 3,647 | 4,002 | 4,389 | 4,768 | ||||||
| Total assets | 30,635 | 31,989 | 34,856 | 37,780 | 42,535 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 5,867 | 6,958 | 6,467 | 7,258 | 8,004 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 3,543 | 3,641 | 3,454 | 3,454 | 3,454 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 5,777 | 4,902 | 4,945 | 5,430 | 5,893 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 15,187 | 15,502 | 14,866 | 16,142 | 17,351 | ||||||
| Shareholders' equity Minority interests | 15,281 167 | 16,207 | 19,718 272 | 21,365 272 | 24,912 272 | ||||||
| Total equity | 15,448 | 280 16,487 | 19,990 | 21,638 | |||||||
| -3,591 | 25,184 | ||||||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -2,983 | -4,424 | -4,333 | -6,199 | |||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -19.3 | -21.8 | |||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | -22.1 | -20.0 | -24.6 |
Figure 2. Sinbon: Earnings Estimates Revision
FY26E
Old
35,920
8,810
4,795
4,016
4,835
3,720
15.50
Old
24.5
13.3
11.2
10.4
NT$mn
Net Sales
Gross profit
OPEX
Operating profit
Pre-tax profit
Net profit
EPS
Ratio
Gross margin (%)
OPEX to Sales ratio(%)
Operating margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Che
0%
0%
4%
-4%
-6%
-5%
-5%.
diff
0.0ppt
0.5ppt
-0.5ppt
-0.5ppt
5,005
3,844
4,534
3,542
14.75
New
24.5
13.9
10.7
9.8
40,450
New
10,189
5,520
4,670
5,474
4,117
17.15
New
25.2
13.6
11.5
10.2
© 2026 Citigroun Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Prepared for Kevin Lu
FY27E
Old
40,155
5,264
10,015
4,751
5,553
4,153
17.30
Old
24.9
13.1
11.8
10.3
Che
1%
2%
5%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
diff
0.2ppt
0.5ppt
New
44,349
11,323
6,052
5,271
6,042
4,562
19.00
New
25.5
13.6
FY28E
Old
44,046
11,129
5,774
5,355
6,123
4,598
19.15
Old
25.3
13.1
Chg
1%
2%
5%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
diff
0.3ppt
0.5ppt
Slightly trim earnings on higher investment; maintain Buy with TP NT$370 -We lower our earnings forecasts 5%/1%/1% for 2026E/2027E/2028E, respectively, mainly to incorporate higher investment in market development and new product programs. We keep our Buy rating and NT$370 TP as the earnings reductions are offset by rolling forward our valuation base and improving visibility into Sinbon's medium-term growth drivers. We continue to view Sinbon as a diversified beneficiary of semi, industrial automation, hybrid vehicles and green-energy recovery, with additional upside potential from humanoid robots, LEO and drone applications.
Figure 1. Sinbon: 2Q26 Results Comp
| Consolidated financials | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 1Q26 | QoQ | 2Q25 | YoY | 2Q26 | 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ mn) | Actual | Citi est. | Diff (%) | Actual | (%) | Actual | (%) | Cons | Diff (%) |
| Revenue | 9,019 | 9,056 | 0% | 8,293 | 9% | 7,736 | 17% | 8,957 | 1% |
| Gross profits | 2,213 | 2,221 | 0% | 2,032 | 9% | 1,911 | 16% | 2,197 | 1% |
| Operatingprofits | 939 | 1,026 | -8% | 956 | -2% | 871 | 8% | 1,006 | -7% |
| Pretax earnings | 1,089 | 1,254 | -13% | 1,116 | -2% | 974 | 12% | 1,177 | -7% |
| Netincome | 903 | 973 | -7% | 865 | 4% | 759 | 19% | 953 | -5% |
| EPS(NT$) | 3.76 | 4.05 | -7% | 3.60 | 4% | 3.16 | 19% | 3.81 | -1% |
| Magins (%) | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 24.7% | -0.2% | 24.5% | 0.0% |
| Operaingmargin | 10.4% | 11.3% | -0.9% | 11.5% | -1.1% | 11.3% | -0.8% | 11.2% | -0.8% |
| Netmargin | 10.0% | 10.7% | -0.7% | 10.4% | -0.4% | 9.8% | 0.2% | 10.6% | -0.6% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Bloomberg, Company Reports, Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates
Figure 2. Sinbon: Earnings Estimates Revision
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, Citi Research Estimates
NT$
420
350
280
210
140
Jul 25
• Target PE at 28x
4 38% Upside
NT$ 370.00
A 22% Upside
Bull/Bear: Sinbon (3023.TW)
BASE Assumptions
• Sales to grow by 16% y/y in 2026E with OPM estimated at 10.5-11%
- Target PE at 23x
BEAR Assumptions
{j. Sales to rise by 5-10% y/y in 2026E with OPM at 10-10.5%
- Target PE at 15x
Prepared for Kevin Lu
NT$ 220.00
• 28% Downside
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Sinbon
Company description
Sinbon, established in 1989, is a maker of connectors and cable assemblies based in Taiwan. The company offers an extensive range of value-added cable assembly services in the areas of green energy, industrial applications, medical health, autos and communications. Sinbon has multiple manufacturing sites spanning Taiwan, China, EU, and the US. It has a large and diverse customer portfolio, with more than 4,500 customers and the largest one accounting for less than 6% of total sales.
Investment strategy
We rate Sinbon as Buy. We expect Sinbon's diversified product portfolio along with positive mix shift would help drive stable sales growth and margin expansion. ROE will also remain on an upward trend, on our analysis, while a solid cash yield could help cushion share price volatility.
Valuation
Our TP for Sinbon is NT$370. We value Sinbon on PE to capture the company's earnings growth prospects. We set our target PE at 23x, which we set at a 20% premium to the historical average of 19x since 2018. We believe 23x is justified in view of improving fundamentals with strong momentum of industrials segment, driving a clear margin expansion and solid earnings growth in 2026E. Applying this to our 2H26-1H27E EPS forecast, we arrive at our target price of NT$370.
Risks
Key downside risks that could cause Sinbon's share to deviate from our target price include 1) slower-than-expected growth in non-IT/non-consumer applications; 2) Intensified competition; 3) Raw material price hike and labor cost increases; 4) FX volatility; 5) Greater-than-expected impact from the geopolitical conflict.
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