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35KB | 真資料圖（財務估值） | Forward PE 帶狀圖（2021/10–2026/09）：均值 30.95x、+1sd 43.87x、-1sd 18.02x（Read 驗證，雖 <40KB） |
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48KB | 真資料圖（評等沿革） | 股價與 Kevin SW Chen 歷次評等／目標價標記（2023/10–2026/08），末端 HC O-PF 目標價約 2,700 |
原始內容
6 October 2026
Taiwan
Technology
Reuters
8996.TW
Bloomberg
8996 TT
Priced on 6 October 2026
Taiwan Wtd@ 49,712.0
12M hi/lo NT$1,655.00/401.00
12M price target NT$2,710.00
±% potential
+69%
Shares in issue 92.5m
Free float (est.) 81.0%
Market cap US$4.7bn
3M ADV
US$129.9m
Foreign s'holding 35.1%
Major shareholders
TU Shui-Cheng3.6% Tsai He-Ling2.2%
SinoPac analysts: Kevin SW Chen, SinoPac
kevin.sw.chen@cl-sec.com
+886 223 268179
+886 223 268151
Stock performance (%)
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | 23.1 | 12.3 | 290.2 |
| Relative | 15.3 | 5.7 | 110.1 |
| Abs (US$) | 22.7 | 13.3 | 275.1 |
Source: Bloomberg
NT$1,600.00-HIGH CONVICTION OUTPERFORM
Growth in multiples
We forecast revenue to more than double next year
Bloom Energy's planned capacity expansion ofup to 10GW strengthens Kaori's long-term SOFC growth outlook, while higher liquid cooling content and shipments should sustain liquid cooling momentum into 2027. CSP CDU heat exchangers and semiconductor equipment cooling could provide additional growth drivers from 4Q26. We raise our 2027/28 EPS forecasts by 14%/12% and increase our target price to NT$2,710from NT$2,300. Reiterate HC O-PF rating.
Bloom Energy to double its capacity
Bloom Energy (BE)has announced plans to acquire a 158k sqft facility in Fremont, US, comparable in size to its existing Fremont manufacturing plant, which can produce up to 5GW. We believe the acquisition could support an eventual doubling of its fuel cell stack manufacturing capacity to 10GW. We expect its supply chain to support shipments of 2/4/6GW in 2026/27/28 to meet strong solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC).demand. To support this ramp, Kaori is expanding capacity to 6-7x its current level by end-2027. We now forecast Kaori's sales from BEto grow by 185%/66% YoY in 2027/28, versus our previous estimate of 101%/77%.
Strong liquid cooling momentum into 2027
With SpaceXplanning an additional 6-8GW of datacentrecapacity in 2027, we believe GPU server suppliers Supermicro and Dell will be key beneficiaries, supporting continued growth across their supply chains from 2H26 into 2027. Higher content value for Rubin manifolds, together with stronger CDU and reardoor heat exchanger (RDHx) shipments, should support Kaori's liquid cooling momentum. We forecast its liquid cooling revenue to grow by 60%/25% YoY in 2027/28.
Diversifying the growth engines
While SOFC andSupermicro-related liquid cooling remain Kaori's maingrowth drivers, we believe plate heat exchangers for CSP CDUs and liquid cooling applications in semiconductor equipment could emerge as additional growth drivers from 4Q26. These opportunities should broaden Kaori's customer and application exposure, supporting its longer-term growth outlook.
Earnings revisions and valuation
We raise our 2027/28SP EPS forecasts by 14%/12% to reflect higher expected demand and shipments for BE's fuel cells, alongside a stronger liquid cooling outlook. We increase ourTP to NT$2,710from NT$2,300, based on an unchanged 40x 2H27-1H28SP PE. Reiterate High Conviction Outperform rating.
| Financials | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year to 31 December Revenue (NT$m) | 24A 4,003 | 25A 6,581 | 26SP 14,390 | 27SP 30,154 | 28SP 46,912 |
| Rev forecast change (%) | - | - | 0.5 | 15.6 | 13.8 |
| Net profit (NT$m) | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| NP forecast change (%) | - | - | (0.7) | 15.7 | 13.4 |
| EPS (NT$) | 6.56 | 9.07 | 21.47 | 48.35 | 79.21 |
| SP/consensus (5) (EPS%) | - | - | 97 | 114 | 107 |
| EPS growth (% YoY) | 1.7 | 38.2 | 136.8 | 125.2 | 63.8 |
| PE (x) | 244.0 | 176.5 | 74.5 | 33.1 | 20.2 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| ROE (%) | 19.4 | 21.9 | 40.4 | 59.8 | 59.5 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (5.2) | (6.7) | 22.1 | 10.9 | 3.2 |
Source: SinoPac Great Meh
Financials at a glance
| Year to 31 December | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | ||||||
| Revenue | 4,003 | 6,581 | 14,390 | 118.7 | 30,154 | 46,912 |
| Cogs (ex-D&A) | (2,650) | (4,587) | (10,010) | (20,537) | (31,642) | |
| Gross Profit (ex-D&A) | 1,354 | 1,994 | 4,380 | 119.7 | 9,616 | 15,270 |
| SG&A and other expenses | (548) | (775) | (1,468) | (2,756) | (4,037) | |
| Op Ebitda | 806 | 1,218 | 2,912 | 139 | 6,861 | 11,233 |
| Depreciation/amortisation | (159) | (195) | (367) | (997) | (1,631) | |
| Op Ebit | 647 | 1,024 | 2,546 | 148.7 | 5,864 | 9,602 |
| Net interest inc/(exp) | (14) | (10) | (8) | (7) | (7) | |
| Other non-Op items | 117 | 39 | 49 | 26.1 | (2) | (2) |
| Profit before tax | 750 | 1,052 | 2,586 | 145.9 | 5,855 | 9,593 |
| Taxation | (157) | (222) | (558) | (1,190) | (1,950) | |
| Profit after tax | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 144.5 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net profit | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 144.5 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Adjusted profit | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 144.5 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Cashflow (NT$m) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Operating profit | 647 | 1,024 | 2,546 | 148.7 | 5,864 | 9,602 |
| Depreciation/amortisation | 159 | 195 | 367 | 88.4 | 997 | 1,631 |
| Working capital changes | 331 | (416) | (3) | (1,625) | (4,867) | |
| Other items | (96) | (205) | (518) | (1,199) | (1,959) | |
| Net operating cashflow | 1,041 | 598 | 2,392 | 300.1 | 4,037 | 4,406 |
| Capital expenditure | (190) | (313) | (3,617) | (3,000) | (2,460) | |
| Free cashflow M&A/Others | 851 (4) | 285 94 | (1,225) 0 | 1,037 0 | 1,946 | |
| Net investing cashflow | (195) | (219) | (3,617) | (3,000) | 0 (2,460) | |
| Increase in loans | 787 | (81) | 200 | 200 | 200 | |
| Dividends | (358) | (366) | (365) | (811) | (1,400) | |
| Net equity raised/other | (4) | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Net financing cashflow | 426 | (132) (579) | (160) | (606) | (1,195) | |
| 431 | 752 | |||||
| Incr/(decr) in net cash | 1,273 | (200) | (1,385) | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Exch rate movements | 8 | 5 | 5 | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Balance sheet (NT$m) Cash & equivalents | 2024A 1,871 | 2025A 1,677 | 2026SP 298 | (82.2) | 734 | 1,491 |
| Accounts receivable | 822 | 1,817 | 1,799 | (1) | 3,769 | 5,864 |
| Other current assets | 1,163 | 2,086 | 2,308 | 10.6 | 3,822 | 8,551 |
| Fixed assets | 1,966 | 2,075 | 5,332 | 156.9 | 7,335 | 8,164 |
| Investments | 145 | 252 | 298 | 18 | 298 | 298 |
| Intangible assets | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
| Other non-current assets | 127 | 204 8,127 | 127 10,176 | (37.8) 25.2 | 127 16,100 | 127 24,510 |
| Total assets Short-term debt | 6,103 | 1,174 | 1,174 | 0 | 1,174 | 1,174 |
| Accounts payable | 958 | 1,729 | 13.1 | 3,589 | 5,545 | |
| Other current liabs | 362 557 | 1,529 | 872 | 0 | 872 | 872 |
| Long-term debt/CBs | 735 | 872 224 | 424 | 89.4 | 624 | 824 |
| Provisions/other LT liabs | 53 | 152 | 97 | (36.1) | 107 | 118 |
| Shareholder funds | 3,395 | 4,171 | 5,874 | 40.8 | 9,728 | 15,971 |
| Minorities/other equity | 6 | 0 | ||||
| 42 | 6 | 6 16,100 | 6 24,510 | |||
| Total liabs & equity | 6,103 | 8,127 | 10,176 | 25.2 | ||
| Ratio analysis YoY) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2028SP | ||
| Revenue growth (% | (7.4) | (% YoY) | 2027SP | 55.6 | ||
| Ebitda margin (%) | 20.1 | 64.4 18.5 | 118.7 20.2 | 109.5 22.8 | 23.9 | |
| Ebit margin (%) | 16.2 | 15.6 | 17.7 | 19.4 | 20.5 | |
| Net profit growth (%) | 2.9 | 39.9 | 144.5 | 130.0 | 63.8 | |
| Op cashflow growth (% YoY) | 53.3 | (42.6) | 300.1 | 68.8 | 9.1 | |
| Capex/sales (%) | 4.8 | 4.8 | 25.1 | 9.9 | 5.2 | |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (5.2) | (6.7) | 22.1 | 10.9 | 3.2 | |
| Net debt/Ebitda (x) | - | - 21.9 | 0.4 40.4 | 0.2 59.8 | 0.0 | |
| ROE (%) ROIC (%) | 19.4 15.7 | 23.2 | 37.1 | 53.1 | 59.5 56.9 |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 1
Forecast revisions
2026SP
2027SP
2028SP
(NT$m)
old new
% ch old new % ch old new % ch
Revenue
14,318 14,390
0% 26,078
30,154
16% 41,233 46,912
14%
Gross profit
4,027
4,014
0%
7,463
8,620
16% 12,024 13,639
13%
Opex
1,460
1,468
0%
2,387
2,756
15%
3,549
4,037
14%
Operating profit
2,566
2,546
0%
5,076
5,864
16%
8,475
9,602
13%
Pretax profit
2,605
2,586
0%
5,060
5,855
16%
8,460
9,593
13%
Net profit
2,043
2,028
0%
4,032
4,665
16%
6,740
7,643
13%
EPS (NT$)
21.40
21.02
(1%)
42.23
48.35
14%
70.60
79.21
12%
Margin
Gross margin
28.1% 27.9%
28.6%
28.6%
29.2% 29.1%
Operating margin
17.9% 17.7%
19.5%
19.4%
20.6% 20.5%
Net margin
14.3% 14.1%
15.5%
15.5%
16.3% 16.3%
Source: SinoPac
Figure 2
| Quarterly P&L (NT$m) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26SP | 4Q26SP | 1Q27SP | 2Q27SP | 3Q27SP | 4Q27SP | 2025 | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 3,423 | 2,305 | 3,743 | 4,919 | 5,395 | 6,637 | 8,334 | 9,788 | 6,581 | 14,390 | 30,154 | 46,912 |
| Gross profit | 993 | 599 | 1,030 | 1,391 | 1,529 | 1,890 | 2,383 | 2,818 | 1,799 | 4,014 | 8,620 | 13,639 |
| Opex | 285 | 301 | 385 | 497 | 513 | 611 | 742 | 891 | 775 | 1,468 | 2,756 | 4,037 |
| Operating profit | 709 | 298 | 644 | 895 | 1,016 | 1,280 | 1,642 | 1,927 | 1,024 | 2,546 | 5,864 | 9,602 |
| Non-OP | 51 | (6) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | 28 | 41 | (9) | (9) |
| Pretax profit | 760 | 293 | 641 | 893 | 1,014 | 1,278 | 1,639 | 1,925 | 1,052 | 2,586 | 5,855 | 9,593 |
| Net profit | 606 | 201 | 511 | 711 | 808 | 1,018 | 1,306 | 1,533 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| EPS (NT$) | 6.54 | 2.16 | 5.40 | 7.53 | 8.37 | 10.55 | 13.54 | 15.89 | 8.97 | 21.02 | 48.35 | 79.21 |
| Growth | ||||||||||||
| Sales QoQ | 49% | (33%) | 62% | 34% | 10% | 23% | 26% | 17% | ||||
| Sales YoY | 238% | 55% | 110% | 115% | 58% | 188% | 127% | 99% | 64% | 119% | 111% | 56% |
| EPS QoQ | 90% | (67%) | 150% | 35% | 11% | 26% | 28% | 17% | ||||
| EPS YoY | 347% | 62% | 91% | 119% | 28% | 388% | 143% | 111% | 37% | 134% | 128% | 64% |
| Margin | ||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0%26.0% | 27.5% | 28.3% | 28.3% | 28.5% | 28.6% | 28.8%27.3% | 27.9% | 28.6% | 29.1% | ||
| Opex | 8.3%13.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.1%11.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | ||
| OP margin | 20.7%12.9% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 18.8% | 19.3% | 19.7% | 19.7%15.6% | 17.7% | 19.4% | 20.5% | ||
| Non-OP | 1.5% | (0.2%) | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Net margin | 17.7% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 15.7%12.6% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 16.3% |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 4
Source: SinoPac
| Figure 3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales mix and GM assumptions Sales (NT$m) | 2025 | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Heat Energy Product | 4,878 | 12,073 | 25,439 | 37,548 |
| Plate HeatExchanger | 1,702 | 2,317 | 4,715 | 9,364 |
| Total | 6,581 | 14,390 | 30,154 | 46,912 |
| YoY (%) | 2025 | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Heat Energy Product | 104% | 147% | 112% | 48% |
| Plate Heat Exchanger | 5% | 36% | 101% | 99% |
| Total | 64% | 119% | 111% | 56% |
| Sales mix (%) | 2025 | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Heat Energy Product | 74% | 84% | 84% | 80% |
| Plate Heat Exchanger | 26% | 16% | 16% | 20% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Gross margin (%) | 2025 | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
| Heat Energy Product | 27% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Plate Heat Exchanger | 29% | 29% | 30% | 32% |
| Total | 27% | 28% | 29% | 29% |
Source: SinoPac
Figure 6
Source: SinoPac
| Target price change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Old | (x) 40 | Valuation period 2H27-1H28 | (NT$) 57.6 | (NT$) 2,300 |
| New | 40 | 2H27-1H28 | 67.1 | 2,710 |
Source: SinoPac
Investment thesis
Kaori is well positioned to capitalise on rising demand for liquid cooling, and it expects related product shipments to ramp up. The fuel-cell business should be a huge growth driver in 2026-27 to meet AI power infrastructure demand in the US. In the longer term, we believe the company will also benefit from heat-pump demand as Europe is phasing out gasboilers, despite some noise about near-term demand. Kaori has been planning capacity expansion earlier than peers to fully capture demand, with rising exposure to large clients. We thus expect the company to enjoy robust earnings in coming years.
Catalysts
The major growth catalysts largely depend on fuel-cell projects for AI datacentres taking off, increasing content value in liquid cooling offerings, and a clearer outlook for hydrogen electrolyzer development.
Valuation details
We adopt a PE-based valuation methodology as we believe the market will mainly focus on the earnings growth outlook, which is better reflected with PE metrics. We base our valuation on 40x PE, which is around +1sd of its five-year average and supported by an 93% EPS Cagr in 2026-28SP, to account for the surging demand for AI server liquid cooling and power infrastructure. We are positive on the company's long-term outlook given its growing stationary fuel cell demand from AI datacentres, as well as its efforts to diversify customer exposure for liquid cooling business. We believe the company can maintain its competitive edge over other cooling players given its expertise in vacuum welding technology to manufacture high-quality products.
Investment risks
Downside risks: 1) increased competition for Bloom Energy's fuel cell business or new technology solutions replacing fuel cells; 2) slower kick-off of new fuel cell projects for AI datacentres; 3) weaker-than-expected liquid cooling adoption; 4) slower rollout of Europe/US government subsidies for heat pump installations.
Detailed financials
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year to 31 December Revenue | 2,844 | 4,326 | 4,003 | 6,581 | 14,390 | 30,154 | 46,912 |
| Cogs (ex-D&A) | (1,944) | (2,973) | (2,650) | (4,587) | (10,010) | (20,537) | (31,642) |
| Gross Profit (ex-D&A) | 899 | 1,353 | 1,354 | 1,994 | 4,380 | 9,616 | 15,270 |
| Research & development costs | (81) | (84) | (113) | (218) | (364) | (551) | (807) |
| Selling & marketing expenses | (132) | (139) | (139) | (159) | (335) | (689) | (1,009) |
| Other SG&A | (227) | (289) | (296) | (398) | (769) | (1,516) | (2,221) |
| Other Op Expenses ex-D&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Op Ebitda | 460 | 841 | 806 | 1,218 | 2,912 | 6,861 | 11,233 |
| Depreciation/amortisation | (114) | (129) | (159) | (195) | (367) | (997) | (1,631) |
| Op Ebit | 346 | 711 | 647 | 1,024 | 2,546 | 5,864 | 9,602 |
| Interest income | 2 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 26 |
| Interest expense | (13) | (33) | (22) | (31) | (32) | (33) | (32) |
| Net interest inc/(exp) | (12) | (25) | (14) | (10) | (8) | (7) | (7) |
| Associates/investments | (6) | (2) | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forex/other income | 57 | 31 | 50 | 16 | 40 | (2) | (2) |
| Asset sales/other cash items | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Provisions/other non-cash items | 5 | 14 | 55 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| revaluation/Exceptional items | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Asset Profit before tax | 390 | 730 | 750 | 1,052 | 2,586 | 5,855 | 9,593 |
| Taxat ion | (89) | (153) | (157) | (222) | (558) | (1,190) | (1,950) |
| Profit after tax | 301 | 577 | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Preference dividends | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Profit for period | 301 | 577 | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit | 301 | 577 | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Extraordinaries/others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Profit avail to ordinary shares | 301 | 577 | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| Dividends | (134) | (134) | (358) | (366) | (365) | (811) | (1,400) |
| Retained profit | 167 | 442 | 236 | 464 | 1,663 | 3,854 | 6,243 |
| Adjusted profit | 301 | 577 | 593 | 830 | 2,028 | 4,665 | 7,643 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 21.5 | 48.4 | 79.2 |
| Adj EPS [pre excep] (NT$) | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 21.5 | 48.4 | 79.2 |
| Core EPS (NT$) | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 21.5 | 48.4 | 79.2 |
| DPS (NT$) | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 14.5 | |
| 23.8 |
Profit & loss ratios
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||||
| Revenue growth (% YoY) | 27.4 | 52.1 | (7.4) | 64.4 | 118.7 | 109.5 | 55.6 |
| Ebitda growth (% YoY) | 34.1 | 82.7 | (4.2) | 51.3 | 139.0 | 135.6 | 63.7 |
| Ebit growth (% YoY) | 50.3 | 105.5 | (9.1) | 58.3 | 148.7 | 130.3 | 63.7 |
| Net profit growth (%) | 101.8 | 91.5 | 2.9 | 39.9 | 144.5 | 130.0 | 63.8 |
| EPS growth (% YoY) | 101.8 | 91.5 | 1.7 | 38.2 | 136.8 | 125.2 | 63.8 |
| Adj EPS growth (% YoY) | 101.8 | 91.5 | 1.7 | 38.2 | 136.8 | 125.2 | 63.8 |
| DPS growth (% YoY) | (0.3) | 166.3 | (27.5) | 36.8 | 113.1 | 72.5 | 63.8 |
| Core EPS growth (% YoY) | 101.8 | 91.5 | 1.7 | 38.2 | 136.8 | 125.2 | 63.8 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin (%) | 31.6 | 31.3 | 33.8 | 30.3 | 30.4 | 31.9 | 32.6 |
| Ebitda margin (%) | 16.2 | 19.4 | 20.1 | 18.5 | 20.2 | 22.8 | 23.9 |
| Ebit margin (%) | 12.2 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 17.7 | 19.4 | 20.5 |
| Net profit margin (%) | 10.6 | 13.3 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 15.5 | 16.3 |
| Core profit margin | 10.6 | 13.3 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 15.5 | 16.3 |
| Op cashflow margin | (10.1) | 15.7 | 26.0 | 9.1 | 16.6 | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| Returns (%) | |||||||
| ROE (%) | 15.4 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 21.9 | 40.4 | 59.8 | 59.5 |
| ROA (%) | 7.1 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 21.8 | 35.6 | 37.7 |
| ROIC (%) | 9.8 | 17.4 | 15.7 | 23.2 | 37.1 | 53.1 | 56.9 |
| ROCE (%) | 12.1 | 21.2 | 19.2 | 28.6 | 46.0 | 65.2 | 70.4 |
| Other key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Effective tax rate (%) | 22.8 | 21.0 | 20.9 | 21.1 | 21.6 | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| Ebitda/net int exp (x) | 39.6 | 33.5 | 57.9 | 116.4 | 365.4 | 1,036.5 | 1,723.6 |
| Exceptional or extraord. inc/PBT (%) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend payout (%) | 44.4 | 61.7 | 44.0 | 43.5 | 39.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
Source: SinoPac
Balance sheet (NT$m)
evaor The Globai Eguities Database
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 249 | 591 | 1,871 | 1,677 | 298 | 734 | 1,491 |
| Accounts receivable | 580 | 798 | 822 | 1,817 | 1,799 | 3,769 | 5,864 |
| Inventories | 1,180 | 1,235 | 1,052 | 1,853 | 2,075 | 3,589 | 8,318 |
| Other current assets | 236 | 78 | 110 | 232 | 232 | 232 | 232 |
| Current assets | 2,245 | 2,702 | 3,856 | 5,580 | 4,404 | 8,325 | 15,906 |
| Fixed assets | 1,625 | 1,839 | 1,966 | 2,075 | 5,332 | 7,335 | 8,164 |
| Investments | 159 | 132 | 145 | 252 | 298 | 298 | 298 |
| Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other intangible assets | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Other non-current assets | 128 | 154 | 127 | 204 | 127 | 127 | 127 |
| Total assets | 4,156 | 4,829 | 6,103 | 8,127 | 10,176 | 16,100 | 24,510 |
| Short term loans/OD | 838 | 255 | 958 | 1,174 | 1,174 | 1,174 | 1,174 |
| Accounts payable | 255 | 206 | 362 | 1,529 | 1,729 | 3,589 | 5,545 |
| Accrued expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Taxes payable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other current liabs | 383 | 535 | 557 | 872 | 872 | 872 | 872 |
| Current liabilities | 1,476 | 996 | 1,877 | 3,575 | 3,775 | 5,635 | 7,591 |
| Long-term debt/leases/other | 595 | 1,092 | 735 | 224 | 424 | 624 | 824 |
| Convertible bonds | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Provisions/other LT liabs | 26 | 38 | 53 | 152 | 97 | 107 | 118 |
| Total liabilities | 2,097 | 2,125 | 2,666 | 3,950 | 4,296 | 6,366 | 8,533 |
| Share capital | 894 | 894 | 915 | 925 | 965 | 965 | 965 |
| Retained earnings | 368 | 778 | 956 | 1,451 | 2,911 | 6,298 | 11,777 |
| Reserves/others | 784 | 1,037 | 1,524 | 1,795 | 1,998 | 2,465 | 3,229 |
| Shareholder funds | 2,045 | 2,709 | 3,395 | 4,171 | 5,874 | 9,728 | 15,971 |
| Minorities/other equity | 14 | (5) | 42 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Total equity | 2,059 | 2,704 | 3,437 | 4,177 | 5,880 | 9,734 | 15,977 |
| Total liabs & equity | 4,156 | 4,829 | 6,103 | 8,127 | 10,176 | 16,100 | 24,510 |
| Total debt | 1,433 | 1,346 | 1,694 | 1,397 | 1,597 | 1,797 | 1,997 |
| Net debt | 1,184 | 755 | (178) | (280) | 1,300 | 1,063 | 506 |
| Adjusted EV | 144,017 | 143,628 | 146,063 | 147,447 | 155,381 | 155,145 | 154,587 |
| BVPS (NT$) | 22.9 | 30.3 | 37.1 | 45.1 | 60.9 | 100.8 | 165.5 |
Balance sheet ratios
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key ratios | |||||||
| Current ratio (x) | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Growth in total assets (% YoY) | 21.8 | 16.2 | 26.4 | 33.2 | 25.2 | 58.2 | 52.2 |
| Growth in capital employed (% YoY) | 30.8 | 6.7 | (5.8) | 19.6 | 84.2 | 50.4 | 52.7 |
| Net debt to operating cashflow (x) | (4.1) | 1.1 | - | - | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Gross debt to operating cashflow (x) | (5.0) | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Gross debt to Ebitda (x) | 3.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Net debt/Ebitda (x) | 2.6 | 0.9 | - | - | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Gearing | |||||||
| Net debt/equity (%) | 57.5 | 27.9 | (5.2) | (6.7) | 22.1 | 10.9 | 3.2 |
| Gross debt/equity (%) | 69.6 | 49.8 | 49.3 | 33.5 | 27.2 | 18.5 | 12.5 |
| Interest cover (x) | 26.1 | 21.6 | 29.2 | 33.8 | 79.9 | 181.2 | 296.5 |
| Debt cover (x) | (0.2) | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Net cash per share (NT$) | (13.2) | (8.4) | 2.0 | 3.1 | (13.8) | (11.0) | (5.2) |
| Working capital analysis | |||||||
| Inventory days | 155.7 | 142.1 | 148.6 | 110.9 | 69.1 | 48.0 | 65.3 |
| Debtor days | 60.4 | 58.1 | 73.9 | 73.2 | 45.9 | 33.7 | 37.5 |
| Creditor days | 39.6 | 27.1 | 36.9 | 72.2 | 57.3 | 45.1 | 50.1 |
| Working capital/Sales (%) | 47.7 | 31.7 | 26.6 | 22.8 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 17.0 |
| Capital employed analysis | |||||||
| Sales/Capital employed (%) | 87.7 | 125.1 | 122.8 | 168.8 | 200.4 | 279.3 | 284.6 |
| EV/Capital employed (%) | 4,441.3 | 4,152.4 | 4,481.3 | 3,783.3 | 2,164.1 | 1,436.9 | 937.8 |
| Working capital/Capital employed (%) | 41.9 | 39.6 | 32.7 | 38.5 | 21.0 | 29.0 | 48.5 |
| Fixed capital/Capital employed (%) | 50.1 | 53.2 | 60.3 | 53.3 | 74.3 | 67.9 | 49.5 |
| Other ratios (%) | |||||||
| PB (x) | 69.9 | 52.8 | 43.1 | 35.5 | 26.3 | 15.9 | 9.7 |
| EV/Ebitda (x) | 313.1 | 170.9 | 181.3 | 121.0 | 53.4 | 22.6 | 13.8 |
| EV/OCF (x) | (500.3) | 211.5 | 140.3 | 246.6 | 65.0 | 38.4 | 35.1 |
| EV/FCF (x) | (372.1) | 435.0 | 171.6 | 517.6 | (126.9) | 149.6 | 79.4 |
| EV/Sales (x) | 50.6 | 33.2 | 36.5 | 22.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 |
| Capex/depreciation (%) | 91.9 | 284.1 | 126.0 | 169.7 | 1,004.2 | 301.0 | 150.8 |
Cashflow (NT$m)
evaor The Global Equities Database
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating profit | 346 | 711 | 647 | 1,024 | 2,546 | 5,864 | 9,602 |
| Operating adjustments | (45) | (135) | (54) | (194) | (518) | (1,199) | (1,959) |
| Depreciation/amortisation | 114 | 129 | 159 | 195 | 367 | 997 | 1,631 |
| Working capital changes | (711) | (55) | 331 | (416) | (3) | (1,625) | (4,867) |
| Interest paid / other financial expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax paid | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other non-cash operating items | 8 | 28 | (42) | (11) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net operating cashflow | (288) | 679 | 1,041 | 598 | 2,392 | 4,037 | 4,406 |
| Capital expenditure | (99) | (349) | (190) | (313) | (3,617) | (3,000) | (2,460) |
| Free cashflow | (387) | 330 | 851 | 285 | (1,225) | 1,037 | 1,946 |
| Acq/inv/disposals | 26 | - | - | 92 | - | - | - |
| Int, invt & associate div | (93) | 3 | (4) | 2 | - | - | - |
| Net investing cashflow | (167) | (346) | (195) | (219) | (3,617) | (3,000) | (2,460) |
| Increase in loans | 341 | 139 | 787 | (81) | 200 | 200 | 200 |
| Dividends | (134) | (134) | (358) | (366) | (365) | (811) | (1,400) |
| Net equity raised/others | (3) | (3) | (4) | (132) | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Net financing cashflow | 204 | 2 | 426 | (579) | (160) | (606) | (1,195) |
| Incr/(decr) in net cash | (251) | 335 | 1,273 | (200) | (1,385) | 431 | 752 |
| Exch rate movements | 2 | (4) | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Opening cash | 499 | 259 | 591 | 1,871 | 1,677 | 298 | 734 |
| Closing cash | 249 | 591 | 1,871 | 1,677 | 298 | 734 | 1,491 |
| OCF PS (NT$) | (3.2) | 7.6 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 25.3 | 41.8 | 45.7 |
| FCF PS (NT$) | (4.3) | 3.7 | 9.4 | 3.1 | (13.0) | 10.7 | 20.2 |
Cashflowratio analysis
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||||
| Op cashflow growth (% YoY) | (197.5) | nm | 53.3 | (42.6) | 300.1 | 68.8 | 9.1 |
| FCF growth (% YoY) | (298.8) | - | 157.7 | (66.5) | (529.9) | - | 87.7 |
| Capex growth (%) | (1.4) | 251.5 | (45.5) | 64.5 | 1,055.3 | (17.1) | (18.0) |
| Other key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Capex/sales (%) | 3.5 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 25.1 | 9.9 | 5.2 |
| Capex/op cashflow (%) | (34.5) | 51.4 | 18.3 | 52.4 | 151.2 | 74.3 | 55.8 |
| Operating cashflow payout ratio (%) | - | 52.4 | 25.1 | 60.4 | 33.2 | 34.7 | 52.0 |
| Cashflow payout ratio (%) | - | 19.7 | 34.3 | 61.2 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 31.8 |
| Free cashflow payout ratio (%) | - | 40.6 | 42.0 | 128.4 | - | 78.2 | 71.9 |
DuPont analysis
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebit margin (%) | 12.2 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 17.7 | 19.4 | 20.5 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Interest burden (x) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Tax burden (x) | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Return on assets (%) | 7.1 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 21.8 | 35.6 | 37.7 |
| Leverage (x) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| ROE (%) | 15.4 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 21.9 | 40.4 | 59.8 | 59.5 |
EVA ® analysis
| Year to 31 December | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026SP | 2027SP | 2028SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebit adj for tax | 267 | 562 | 511 | 807 | 1,996 | 4,672 | 7,650 |
| Average invested capital | 2,721 | 3,237 | 3,266 | 3,482 | 5,388 | 8,793 | 13,455 |
| ROIC (%) | 9.8 | 17.4 | 15.7 | 23.2 | 37.1 | 53.1 | 56.9 |
| Cost of equity (%) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| Cost of debt (adj for tax) | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Weighted average cost of capital (%) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EVA/IC (%) | 2.3 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 15.6 | 29.5 | 45.6 | 49.3 |
| EVA (NT$m) | 62 | 318 | 265 | 545 | 1,590 | 4,009 | 6,635 |
Source: SinoPac
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Companies mentioned
Kaori (8996 TT -NT$1,600.00 -HIGH CONVICTION OUTPERFORM)
Bloom Energy (N-R)
Dell (N-R)
Supermicro (N-R)