Stock LLM Wiki

報告_大和_瑞昱2379_20260512

更新 2026-05-14

PDF 原檔:報告_大和_瑞昱2379_20260512_original.pdf

原始內容

Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT)

Target price:

TWD615.00 (from TWD575.00)

Share price (12 May):

TWD555.00

|

Up/downside:

+10.8%

When uncertainty overshadows reality?

  • Likely a prolonged pre-stocking on supply-chain issues …
  • … yet demand rebalancing to be pushed back, not pushed out
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call with a higher 12M TP of TWD615

What's new: Following our results memo , we leave our forecasts little changed for Realtek to reflect its latest business dynamics. We expect a prolonged demand pre-stocking for a stronger 1H26 revenue build on customers' lingering concerns over supply-chain uncertainties. This counter-seasonal print should, however, result in a deeper 2H26 correction on demand rebalancing, when customers destock to manage inventory amid likely deteriorated consumer demand on commodity price hikes. That said, we reaffirm our Buy (1) rating on valuation grounds as this likely correction should be seasonal and already in the price. We remain positive on Realtek's structural outlook riding on the multi-G (gigabits/second) bandwidth upgrade cycles across wireless and wireline communications.

What's the impact: Forecast revisions. We lower our 2H26E revenue for Realtek with a below-seasonal print to reflect likely a demand rebalancing, after it enjoys counter-seasonal 1H26E on customers' restocking and prestocking - an anti-seasonal pattern similar to that of 2025 ( Upgrading: turnaround around the corner , 10 March). Net of the rebalancing effect, we leave our 2026 forecasts little changed. We are now modelling a higher gross-margin trajectory to factor in the better product mix and Realtek's bargaining power of partially passing rising material and manufacturing costs on to its customers. In this note, we introduce our 2028 forecasts with an EPS of c.TWD40 for a 13% CAGR over 2025-28E.

Rebalancing pushed back, not pushed out. In our sector update ( Game over? Not so soon but … , 30 March), we flagged our view on deteriorated consumer demand across the PC and smartphone segments due to commodity price hikes that hurt consumer purchases. We stick with this view and continue to see a likely demand rebalancing at Realtek, despite the timing now being pushed back by one quarter to 3Q26E. That said, we believe the potential correction in 2H26E is seasonal and poses no threat to Realtek's structural business. After two years of anti-seasonal performance, we still expect its EPS YoY growth to turn positive from 2Q26 and sustain the momentum into 2028, supported by the multi-year, multi-G bandwidth upgrade cycle across wireline and wireless communications.

What we recommend: Given our forecast revisions, we raise our 12M TP for Realtek to TWD615 (previous: TWD575), as we fine-tune our 4-quarter forward PER target to 19x, from 18x, to capture its expanded YoY EPS growth after the turnaround in 2Q26E. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating with key downside risk of commodity price hikes leading to worse-than-expected consumer demand resulting in a choppy earnings rebound.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 1-12% below the consensus, likely on our deeper rebalancing effect that lowers the forecasting trajectory.

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 1.4 (0.9) n.a.
Net profit change 2.5 1.4 n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change 0.4 (0.7) n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260512_daiwa_RTK_001
260512_daiwa_RTK_002
12-month range 445.00-592.00
Market cap (USDbn) 9.12
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 61.49
Shares outstanding (m) 516
Major shareholder JPMorgan Chase & Co (5.2%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 136,308 153,625 183,495
Operating profit (m) 16,800 18,975 21,876
Net profit (m) 16,742 18,643 21,209
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 31.847 35.464 40.345
EPS change (%) 13.5 11.4 13.8
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 2.1 (1.1) (12.0)
PER (x) 17.4 15.6 13.8
Dividend yield (%) 4.5 4.9 5.2
DPS 25.0 27.0 29.0
PBR (x) 5.1 4.6 4.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 9.6 8.1
ROE (%) 30.9 31.7 32.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Realtek: quarterly P&L forecasts

TWDm 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 35,022 31,914 29,491 26,278 36,423 36,330 32,562 30,993 122,706 136,308 153,625 183,495
COGS 16,965 15,885 14,839 13,643 18,336 18,421 16,683 15,899 61,333 69,339 78,560 94,628
Gross profit 18,057 16,029 14,652 12,635 18,087 17,909 15,879 15,094 61,374 66,968 75,065 88,867
Opex 13,153 12,021 11,538 10,301 13,755 13,406 11,788 11,219 47,014 50,168 56,090 66,991
SG&A 3,374 2,972 2,889 2,607 3,278 3,161 2,735 2,634 11,841 11,808 13,384 15,981
R&D 9,780 9,049 8,649 7,694 10,477 10,245 9,052 8,585 35,172 38,360 42,706 51,010
Operating profit 4,904 4,008 3,113 2,335 4,332 4,503 4,091 3,875 14,360 16,800 18,975 21,876
Pre-tax profit 5,605 4,624 4,045 2,986 4,977 5,183 4,771 4,565 17,261 19,496 21,805 24,806
Income taxes 844 715 616 332 649 752 692 662 2,507 2,754 3,162 3,597
Net profit 4,762 3,909 3,429 2,654 4,329 4,431 4,079 3,903 14,753 16,742 18,643 21,209
O/S (M, fully diluted) 521 515 514 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526
FD EPS (TWD) 9.14 7.59 6.67 5.05 8.23 8.43 7.76 7.42 28.06 31.85 35.46 40.35
As a %of revenue
Gross profit 51.6% 50.2% 49.7% 48.1% 49.7% 49.3% 48.8% 48.7% 50.0% 49.1% 48.9% 48.4%
Opex 37.6% 37.7% 39.1% 39.2% 37.8% 36.9% 36.2% 36.2% 38.3% 36.8% 36.5% 36.5%
SG&A 9.6% 9.3% 9.8% 9.9% 9.0% 8.7% 8.4% 8.5% 9.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%
R&D 27.9% 28.4% 29.3% 29.3% 28.8% 28.2% 27.8% 27.7% 28.7% 28.1% 27.8% 27.8%
Operating profit 14.0% 12.6% 10.6% 8.9% 11.9% 12.4% 12.6% 12.5% 11.7% 12.3% 12.4% 11.9%
Net profit 13.6% 12.2% 11.6% 10.1% 11.9% 12.2% 12.5% 12.6% 12.0% 12.3% 12.1% 11.6%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue 33% -9% -8% -11% 39% 0% -10% -5%
Gross profit 42% -11% -9% -14% 43% -1% -11% -5%
Operating profit 70% -18% -22% -25% 86% 4% -9% -5%
Net profit 40% -18% -12% -23% 63% 2% -8% -4%
FD EPS 39% -17% -12% -24% 63% 2% -8% -4%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue 37% 4% -4% 0% 4% 14% 10% 18% 8% 11% 13% 19%
Gross profit 39% 3% -7% -1% 0% 12% 8% 19% 7% 9% 12% 18%
Operating profit 79% 1% -20% -19% -12% 12% 31% 66% 6% 17% 13% 15%
Net profit 52% -11% -22% -22% -9% 13% 19% 47% -4% 13% 11% 14%
FD EPS 51% -11% -21% -23% -10% 11% 16% 47% -5% 13% 11% 14%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Realtek: 1Q26 revenue mix by application

Source: Daiwa estimates

Realtek: quarterly inventory trend

260512_daiwa_RTK_003

Source: Company

Realtek: monthly revenue run-rate

260512_daiwa_RTK_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts (for May-Dec 2026)

Realtek: 4-quarter forward PER bands

260512_daiwa_RTK_005

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Networking & communication (%) 71 76 77 77 77 79 80 81
Computer & peripheral (%) 14 12 10 11 10 9 9 9
Multimedia & consumer (%) 15 13 13 13 13 12 11 10

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Networking & communication revenue 75,067 84,710 73,133 86,991 94,382 108,308 123,314 148,989
Computer & peripheral revenue 14,542 12,871 9,464 12,180 12,379 11,782 13,340 15,607
Other Revenue 15,896 14,209 12,582 14,223 15,945 16,218 16,972 18,900
Total Revenue 105,504 111,790 95,179 113,394 122,706 136,308 153,625 183,495
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (52,316) (57,155) (54,431) (56,232) (61,333) (69,339) (78,560) (94,628)
SG&A (7,910) (8,863) (7,633) (10,073) (11,841) (11,808) (13,384) (15,981)
Other op.expenses (27,953) (30,048) (26,460) (33,544) (35,172) (38,360) (42,706) (51,010)
Operating profit 17,325 15,724 6,655 13,545 14,360 16,800 18,975 21,876
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 220 733 2,335 2,504 2,548 2,685 2,830 2,930
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 30 465 555 336 353 11 0 0
Pre-tax profit 17,575 16,922 9,545 16,384 17,261 19,496 21,805 24,806
Tax (722) (718) (392) (1,050) (2,507) (2,754) (3,162) (3,597)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 16,853 16,204 9,153 15,335 14,753 16,742 18,643 21,209
Net profit (adjusted) 16,853 16,204 9,153 15,335 14,753 16,742 18,643 21,209
EPS (reported)(TWD) 33.000 31.623 17.847 29.900 28.619 32.477 36.165 41.142
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 33.000 31.623 17.847 29.900 28.619 32.477 36.165 41.142
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 32.384 30.483 17.587 29.742 28.064 31.847 35.464 40.345
DPS (TWD) 14.000 27.023 27.000 15.499 25.369 25.000 27.000 29.000
EBIT 17,325 15,724 6,655 13,545 14,360 16,800 18,975 21,876
EBITDA 19,626 18,528 9,680 16,889 18,079 20,961 23,689 27,554

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 17,575 16,922 9,545 16,384 17,261 19,496 21,805 24,806
Depreciation and amortisation 2,301 2,804 3,025 3,344 3,719 4,160 4,714 5,678
Tax paid (722) (718) (392) (1,050) (2,507) (2,754) (3,162) (3,597)
Change in working capital (9,811) (5,938) 9,803 1,875 8,115 6,359 (7,082) (723)
Other operational CF items 9,009 5,987 (4,084) 3,424 (3,573) 0 0 (0)
Cash flow from operations 18,352 19,058 17,896 23,978 23,015 27,261 16,275 26,164
Capex (2,510) (2,451) (2,167) (2,347) (2,089) (2,726) (3,073) (3,670)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (45) (370) 0 (2,240) 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (11,478) 2,456 3,251 (5,121) (14,291) (2,045) (2,304) (2,752)
Cash flow from investing (14,033) (366) 1,084 (9,707) (16,380) (4,771) (5,377) (6,422)
Change in debt 2,903 1,107 (8,977) 250 5,590 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (7,150) (13,847) (13,847) (7,949) (13,078) (12,888) (13,919) (14,950)
Other financing CF items (90) (98) (115) (2,367) (128) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (4,337) (12,838) (22,939) (10,066) (7,616) (12,888) (13,919) (14,950)
Forex effect/others (81) 703 472 383 (766) 0 0 0
Change in cash (99) 6,557 (3,486) 4,588 (1,747) 9,603 (3,021) 4,791
Free cash flow 15,842 16,607 15,730 21,631 20,926 24,535 13,202 22,494

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 52,891 56,913 43,590 55,099 61,376 70,978 67,957 72,749
Inventory 16,549 25,553 11,757 13,506 19,561 10,834 19,298 16,998
Accounts receivable 15,989 12,013 12,757 12,305 15,011 18,599 19,281 25,964
Other current assets 817 1,013 1,183 3,747 1,409 1,409 1,409 1,409
Total current assets 86,245 95,492 69,288 84,658 97,357 101,821 107,946 117,120
Fixed assets 6,303 5,210 7,068 8,441 10,100 11,453 12,970 14,766
Goodwill & intangibles 2,232 2,413 2,625 2,659 3,475 2,732 2,679 2,593
Other non-current assets 6,452 10,586 14,836 18,138 18,972 18,972 18,972 18,972
Total assets 101,232 113,701 93,815 113,897 129,903 134,978 142,568 153,451
Short-term debt 13,342 13,738 4,250 4,500 10,090 10,090 10,090 10,090
Accounts payable 11,443 10,496 7,273 9,584 11,738 12,958 15,022 18,681
Other current liabilities 34,036 38,310 34,723 43,877 52,928 52,928 52,928 52,928
Total current liabilities 58,821 62,545 46,246 57,961 74,756 75,976 78,040 81,699
Long-term debt 1,003 1,713 2,227 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 2,456 2,680 3,104 2,978 2,935 2,935 2,935 2,935
Total liabilities 62,280 66,938 51,577 60,939 77,691 78,911 80,975 84,634
Share capital 5,107 5,129 5,129 5,129 5,155 5,155 5,155 5,155
Reserves/R.E./others 33,836 41,625 37,100 47,819 47,047 50,902 56,427 63,652
Shareholders' equity 38,943 46,753 42,228 52,948 52,202 56,057 61,582 68,807
Minority interests 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Total equity & liabilities 101,232 113,701 93,815 113,897 129,903 134,978 142,568 153,451
EV 247,573 244,658 249,006 235,520 234,834 225,231 228,252 223,461
Net debt/(cash) (38,546) (41,462) (37,113) (50,599) (51,286) (60,888) (57,867) (62,659)
BVPS (TWD) 76.256 91.242 82.339 103.240 101.263 108.740 119.459 133.473

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 35.7 6.0 (14.9) 19.1 8.2 11.1 12.7 19.4
EBITDA (YoY) 84.7 (5.6) (47.8) 74.5 7.0 15.9 13.0 16.3
Operating profit (YoY) 100.5 (9.2) (57.7) 103.5 6.0 17.0 12.9 15.3
Net profit (YoY) 91.7 (3.8) (43.5) 67.5 (3.8) 13.5 11.4 13.8
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 91.3 (5.9) (42.3) 69.1 (5.6) 13.5 11.4 13.8
Gross-profit margin 50.4 48.9 42.8 50.4 50.0 49.1 48.9 48.4
EBITDA margin 18.6 16.6 10.2 14.9 14.7 15.4 15.4 15.0
Operating-profit margin 16.4 14.1 7.0 11.9 11.7 12.3 12.4 11.9
Net profit margin 16.0 14.5 9.6 13.5 12.0 12.3 12.1 11.6
ROAE 49.3 37.8 20.6 32.2 28.1 30.9 31.7 32.5
ROAA 18.8 15.1 8.8 14.8 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.3
ROCE 36.8 27.2 12.0 25.5 24.0 26.2 27.5 29.1
ROIC n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 4.1 4.2 4.1 6.4 14.5 14.1 14.5 14.5
Accounts receivable (days) 51.3 45.7 47.5 40.3 40.6 45.0 45.0 45.0
Current ratio (x) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 81.3 82.1 85.5 86.9 87.7 87.4 83.1 80.2
Free cash flow yield 5.5 5.8 5.5 7.6 7.3 8.6 4.6 7.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Realtek focuses on research, design, development and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs) for applications across networking & communication (NC), computer & peripheral (CP) and multimedia & consumer (MM). The majority of its revenue comes from NC products, including WiFi, Bluetooth, Ethernet and switch controllers. It also provides diversified CP products such as audio codec, IP cam, and solid-state drive (SSD) controllers as well as MM products like TV SoC and monitor controllers.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality Realtek's Board of Directors consists of nine members whose expertise spans industry, academia, finance, accounting, and management, providing the company with a broad and diverse range of professional perspectives. Three of these directors are independent, representing 33 percent of the board and exceeding the regulatory minimum requirement of 20 percent for independent directors. This higher proportion of independent directors enhances oversight, helps safeguard shareholder interests, and supports more objective decision - making. However, an important governance risk remains in the area of board diversity. The board currently includes only one female director out of nine members, which represents 11 percent of the total. This limited female representation may constrain the breadth of viewpoints and experiences reflected in board discussions and could be perceived as misaligned with evolving stakeholder expectations and best practices on gender diversity in corporate governance.
Capital management In the past 8 years, Realtek's dividend payout ratios were above 80%. As a fabless company, it does not need high capital expenditure for manufacturing sites. Realtek's business has shown stable earnings growth over its 30-year history. Thus, we see its dividend policy with a high payout ratio as appropriate.
Related party & transaction Realtek's related-party transactions are primarily with G.M.I. Technology Inc. and Greatek Electronics Inc. Realtek pays certain processing costs to related parties. These payments are made under standard commercial terms and conditions. Overall, we do not observe any significant impact on Realtek's business arising from these related-party transactions.
S Supply chain management Realtek has formulated a set of supplier management regulations in accordance with Realtek's Supplier Sustainability Management Policy. It requires suppliers to obtain ISO9001 quality management system certification to ensure that all of its suppliers possess a high level of environment awareness.
E Water & wastewater management As a fabless company without manufacturing plants, Realtek does not produce much wastewater compared to manufacturing companies, and thus has a relatively limited impact on the environment. Realtek has implemented a water conservation plan to increase water efficiency, such as the reuse of rainwater, re-circulating water in its cooling tower and installing water- saving devices. Its water saving rate (=reduced water consumption/total water withdrawn) increased gradually.
E Waste & hazardous materials management The company reports to the Executive Yuan's Environmental Protection Administration waste and reporting management system every month on the quantity of waste and its method of disposal. In 2024, it produced 26.10 tonnes of industrial waste, maintaining over a 90% recycling rate for hazardous industrial waste.
E GHG emissions Realtek has independently conducted GHG emission inventory and management at its Hsinchu Headquarters since 2019. In 2022, Realtek implemented a comprehensive ISO 14064-1:2018 GHG inventory and passed third-party verification. As of 2024, the company has completed GHG emission inventory and third-party verification for all sites within the Realtek Group.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company